Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM_(2.5)Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.

Spatial Variability of PM_(2.5) Pollution in Imbalanced Natural and Socioeconomic Processes: Evidence from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China

Accurately identifying and quantifying the factors influencing PM_(2.5) pollution is of great significance for the prevention and control of pollution. However, the redundancy among potential factors of PM_(2.5) may be overlooked. Meanwhile, the inconsistent spatial distribution of the natural and socioeconomic conditions brings unique implications for the cities within a region, which may lead to an uncertain understanding of the relationship between pollution and environmental factors. This study focused on the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH) Region, China, which presents complex and varied background conditions. Potential impact factors on PM_(2.5) were firstly screened by combining systematic cluster analysis with a random forest recursive feature elimination algorithm. Then, the representative multi-factor responsible for PM_(2.5) pollution in the region during the key period of 2014–2018(when the strict national air pollution control policy was implemented). The results showed that the key driving factors of PM_(2.5) pollution in the BTH cities are different, indicating that the uniqueness of a city will have an impact on the leading causes of pollution. Further discussion shows that air control policy provides an effective way to improve air quality. This study aims to deepen the understanding of the risk drivers of air pollution within the BTH Region. In the future, it is recommended that more attention should be paid to the specific differences between the cities when formulating PM_(2.5) concentration control measures.

Assessing the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on environmental pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region using spatial panel data model

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the vanguard of economic development in northern China.Its manufacturing industry is more and more developed,but environmental pollution is also more serious.Based on the data of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2017 to 2021,the paper verifies the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on environmental pollution.Both manufacturing agglomeration and environmental pollution are dependent on spatial distribution.Therefore,the paper selects spatial econometric model to study.First,the spatial lag model and spatial error model are constructed,and then the spatial lag model is selected through the results of OLS regression,LM Test and Hausman test,and the empirical process is carried out.Finally,the empirical results are analyzed and the conclusion is drawn.

Empirical Study on Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Regional Economic Growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Based on the data of gross domestic product(GDP),industrial added value and the proportion of industrial employees from 2000 to 2008,this paper studies the effect of industrial structure change on the regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region in China using the shift-share method.The results show that:1) In the 21st century,the industrial output of three industries,namely,primary,secondary,and tertiary,and the GDP grew rapidly in the study period.The tertiary industry grew the fastest;it had the largest contribution to the GDP and mean-while had become the most competitive industry in the metropolitan region.2) The development of cities within the region was not balanced.Firstly,compared with Tianjin,Beijing,as one of the two core cities,was more rational in the industrial structure.Secondly,the surrounding eight cities,which are Shijiazhuang,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan,Langfang,Baoding,Cangzhou,Zhangjiakou,and Chengde,were all uncompetitive than the two core cities.3) There was a great industrial gradient in the region(especially between the two core cities and the cities of Tangshan,Baoding,Zhangjia-kou,Chengde,Cangzhou,and Langfang).As a result,it is foreseeable that the industry transfer in the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region will be one of the trends in regional development,and the industry transfer is inevitably to promote the regional integration.

A Numerical Study of the Urban Intensity Effect on Fog Evolution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

The influence of urban intensity on fog evolution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region (China) is investigated numerically with the the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the urban canopy parameterization-building energy model (UCP- BEM) urban physics scheme. The experiments were designed with a focus on the influence of different urban intensities, which are represented by a different fractional coverage of natural land, buildings, and energy consumption inside buildings in an urban environment. The results of this study indicate that urban areas notably influence fog evolution when natural land is reduced to a small fraction (e.g., less than 10%). Developed land changes fog evolution through urban effects. Higher urban intensity (HUI) generally results in warmer temperatures and lower wind speeds throughout the day, while inhibiting morning specific humidity loss and afternoon specific humidity gain because of the HUI effect on surface heat flux, surface roughness, and surface moisture flux. HUI leads to later and weaker liquid water content formation, with a higher liquid water content base, primarily due to its effect on near surface temperatures. This finding implies that HUI may inhibit the conditions for fog formation. In addition, urban areas with equal natural and developed land coverage seem to greatly enhance the upward surface moisture flux, which is attributed to the combination of a relatively large potential evaporation on developed land and an ample moisture supply from natural land. As a result, the specific humidity increases in the afternoon.

Assessing adaptability of the water resource system to social-ecological systems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region:Based on the DPSIR-TOPSIS framework

To optimize the overall layout of water resource allocation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the adaptabil‐ity of the water resource system to the regional social-ecological systems has to be enhanced.Based on the driver-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)framework,this study constructs an evaluation index system to analyze the adaptability mechanisms of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei’s water resource system according to the three major constituent social-ecological systems(i.e.,economic,social,and ecological systems).Moreover,it adopts the technique of order preference similarity to the ideal solution(TOPSIS)to comprehensively evaluate the adaptability of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei’s water resource system based on three constituent social-ecological systems(i.e.,economic,social,and ecological systems)and identifies the spatiotemporal differentiation char‐acteristics of the region.Our results showed that,①from 2000 to 2020,the adaptability of Beijing-Tianjin Hebei’s water resource system,as a whole,significantly improved.In terms of stages,from 2000 to 2007,the adaptability of the water resource social system was significantly higher than that of economic and ecological systems in the region.From 2008 to 2015,by accelerating the transformation and upgrading of industrial structures,improving the efficiency of economic water utilization,and strengthening the governance of the water ecosystem,the adaptability of water resource economic and ecological systems rapidly improved;how‐ever,that of the water resource ecological system was still the lowest.Additionally,the adaptability of the wa‐ter resource economic system exceeded that of the social system.From 2016 to 2020,the gap in adaptability of the water resource system to all three major constituent systems gradually narrowed.By 2020,the three sys‐tems entered a relatively balanced development stage,with the adaptability of the entire water resource system and the three major constituent systems maintaining a high level.②The economic system was significantly af‐fected by per capita GDP,per capita water resources,and the efficiency of economic water utilization.Addition‐ally,the social system was significantly affected by water consumption per unit of irrigation area.Meanwhile,the ecological system was significantly influenced by precipitation,water pollution discharge performance indi‐cators,and the structure optimization indicators of water supply.According to the evaluation results,we pro‐pose countermeasures and provide recommendations to optimize the overall layout of water resource alloca‐tion and promote the coordinated management of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Decomposition of factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,based on the perspective of terminal energy consumption

In order to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and to explore the pathways to developing a low-carbon economy,this paper begins with the terminal energy consumption of three industries and residential consumption,and constructs an identical equation which is composed of population size,level of economic development,energy intensity,the proportion of energy consumption,energy structure,and the coefficient of carbon emissions.Based on the data of terminal energy consumption during 2000-2012,various factors are analyzed and their contribution is measured by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI).The results show that the levels of population and economy have a positive driving effect while energy intensity,energy structure,and carbon intensity have a negative driving effect;the proportion of energy consumption had a negative driving effect prior to 2006,then changed to positive.Among suggestions for a low-carbon economy are controlling population size,improving the quality of economic development,supporting research into new energy technology,accelerating regional integration and optimizing industrial structure,and enhancing environmental protection and spreading the concept of a low-carbon economy.

The status quo and prospect of geothermal resources exploration and development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region boasts rich geothermal resources and new achievements have been made in the exploration and development of geothermal resources in this region based on previous regional investigation.In detail,geothermal reservoirs of Gaoyuzhuang Formation of Jixian System and Changcheng System in Xiongan New Area have been recently discovered,opening up the second space of geothermal resources;the calculation method of the recoverable resources of geothermal fluid with reinjection being considered has been improved in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and uniform comprehensive assessment of shallow geothermal energy,hydrothermal geothermal resources,and hot dry rocks(HDR)geothermal resources in the whole Beijing-Tianjin-Shijiazhuang region has been completed.The scientific research base for cascade development and utilization of geothermal resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has applied hydraulic fracturing technology to the geothermal reservoirs in Gaoyuzhuang Formation.As a result,the production capacity doubled and two-stage cascade utilization composed of geothermal power generation and geothermal heating were realized,with the first-phase installed capacity of 280 kW and the geothermal heating is 30000 m2.In this way,a model of the exploration,development,and utilization of geothermal resources formed.Large-scale utilization has become the future trend of geothermal resource development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and great efforts shall be made to achieve breakthroughs in reinjection technology,geothermal reservoir reconstruction technology,thermoelectric technology and underground heat exchange technology.

Spheres of Urban Influence and Factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region Based on Viewpoint of Administrative Division Adjustment

The coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has been elevated as China's important strategy. And, the priority in considering how to bring the maximum effect of their coordinated development into play is to delineate the spheres of urban influence with regard to the cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region. By building an evaluation index system of urban comprehensive strength, this paper applies the principal component analysis method to determine centrality strength of the cities, and the breakpoint theory and weighted Voronoi diagram to identify the spheres of urban influence in all central cities of the region. Results show that 13 central cities within the region greatly differ in strength, which can be classified into four tiers and that the spheres of urban influence do not have a high goodness of fit with administrative jurisdiction scope. Cities like Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and Handan have larger spheres of urban, spheres of urban influence in Tangshan and Qinhuangdao are basically consistent with their administrative jurisdiction scopes, and seven cities including Langfang and Baoding have smaller spheres of urban influence. So according to these cities' comprehensive strength and spheres of influence, the region can be divided into five plates: Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan and Handan. The major influence factors for inconsistency between spheres of urban influence and spheres of jurisdiction include difference in urban administrative ranking, small number of central cities with weak strength, discrepancy in the number of counties under jurisdiction, unreasonable spheres of jurisdiction and diversity in topographical conditions. In order to solve the imbalance in the spheres of urban influence and those of jurisdiction and better facilitate the coordinated development of the region, it is advised to adjust administrative areas so as to obtain more optimized urban spatial layout and more reasonable urban scale hierarchy system.

Measuring Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China

Social vulnerability in this study represents the differences between the capacity to cope with natural hazards and disaster losses suffered within and between places.The assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step in understanding natural hazard risks and enhancing effective response capabilities.This article presents an initial study of the social vulnerability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(B-T-H) Region in China.The goal is to replicate and test the applicability of the United States Social Vulnerability Index(So VI) method in a Chinese cultural context.Thirty-nine variables adapted from the So VI were collected in relation to two aspects:socioeconomic vulnerability and built environment vulnerability.Using factor analysis,seven factors were extracted from the variable set:the structure of social development,the level of economic and government financial strength,social justice and poverty,family structure,the intensity of space development,the status of residential housing and transportation,and building structure.Factor scores were summed to get the final So VI scores and the most and least vulnerable units were identified and mapped.The highest social vulnerability is concentrated in the northwest of the study area.The least socially vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in the Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang core urban peripheral and central city areas of the prefecture-level cities.The results show that this method is a useful tool for revealing places that have a high level of vulnerability,in other words,areas which are more likely to face significant challenges in coping with a large-scale event.These findings could provide a scientific basis for policy making and the implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China.

CO2 emission driving forces and corresponding mitigation strategies under low-carbon economy mode:evidence from China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

On account of the background of China's "new normal" characterized by slower economic growth, this paper analyses the low-carbon economy status quo in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and empirically investigates the relationship between carbon dioxide(CO_2) emissions and its various factors for China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region using panel data econometric technique. We find evidence of existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve. Results also show that economic scale, industrial structure, and urbanization rate are crucial factors to promote CO_2emissions. However, technological progress, especially the domestic independent research and development, plays a key role in C0_2 emissions abatement. Next, we further analyze the correlation between each subregion and various factors according to Grey Relation Analysis. Thereby,our findings provide important implications for policymakers in air pollution control and C0_2 emissions reduction for this region.

A Brief Analysis of the Causes and Countermeasures of Fog-Haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Since China broke the blockade and opened the country to the outside world, many township enterprises develop quickly. Together with the pollution caused by China’s coal-burning as the main source of national energy, the pollution caused by small and medium-sized enterprises in towns and villages due to their small investment, low technology level and weak environmental awareness, and the pollution caused by a sharp increase in motor vehicle emissions lead to the fact that fog-haze has been rampant in China’s cities and urban agglomerations for nearly two decades, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This paper sorted out the current situation of fog-haze and analyzed the causes of fog-haze from the two aspects of natural and man-made causes, discussed the harms of fog-haze to human body, environment and life, and put forward the concrete measures to solve the fog-haze problem.

Development of Agricultural Product Logistics in Tianjin in the Context of the Coordinated Development Strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Since February 26,2014,Chinese president Xi Jinping of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China listened to the report on the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and delivered an important speech,and officially raised the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region as a major national strategy,the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region has entered the"fast lane".Guided by accelerating the construction of agricultural product supply areas,agricultural high-tech industry demonstration areas,and agricultural product logistics center areas,Tianjin seizes the opportunity of coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,brings into full play to the advantages of Tianjin s three-dimensional transportation network,perfect market system,high-quality port services,rapid growth of cold chain and e-commerce,to promote the faster and better development of Tianjin s agriculture.In addition,focusing on comprehensively improving Tianjin s regional agricultural product logistics service capabilities,Tianjin is establishing a distribution center for agricultural products,an e-commerce center,and a high-end agricultural product distribution center serving the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,to promote the construction of Tianjin agricultural product logistics center.

Construction and Implementation Approaches of Ecological Compensation Mechanism for Coordinated Control of Air Pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

The spatial spillover of air pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region makes the territorial governance model inefficient.At the same time,it is facing the contradiction between environmental governance and economic development.So far,there is still no regional long-term mechanism for coordinated governance of air pollution.Ecological compensation theory is becoming an effective guiding theory to coordinate economic and environmental benefits.There is relatively little research on ecological compensation mechanism in the coordinated control of regional air pollution.Ecological compensation mechanism is an effective tool to promote air pollution control.At the same time,regional cooperation can realize the efficient control of air pollution.Scientifically constructing the cross regional cooperative control model of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is a favorable way to implement comprehensive control of air pollution.This paper discusses the necessity of ecological compensation mechanism for regional coordinated control of air pollution.Referring to practical experience of provinces and cities that have implemented the ecological compensation mechanism for air pollution control,and the effective way to distribute the compensation amount,compensation subject and compensation standard determination method that can be implemented in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are analyzed,further proposing an effective way to establish an ecological compensation mechanism for regional air pollution collaborative control according to its reality.

Assessing performance of cross-administrative environment governance based on PSR model:An empirical analysis of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

As an effective environment governance tool,environment governance performance evaluation is an important content and method to promote the modernization of environment governance system and governance ability.The environmental pollution of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has typical cross-administrative characteristics.Based on the analysis of the major environmental pollution problems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,according to the international environment governance PSR model,a performance evaluation system that applies to the environment governance of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is established.Meanwhile,the principal component analysis method is applied to conduct an empirical analysis of the environmental governance panel data for the 13 major cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2014 to 2016.The results show that most of the cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region attach great importance to reduction of emission and pollutants,continuously alleviating the stress of environmental governance.However,the overall improvement of the environment governance performance in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has presented a polarization imbalance.There is a clear tendency for subjective biases in the implementation of environment governance and a lack of comprehensive and systematic governance.According to the environment governance performance evaluation result of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the cross-administrative regional environment governance should improve the environment governance performance evaluation system as soon as possible,strengthen the consistency of the environment governance objectives,and implement comprehensive and systematic governance for the regional environment.

Measurement of Urban Economic Gravity of China’s Three Major Agglomerations and Its Implications for the Coordinated Development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

This paper adopts the perspective of urban economic linkage and the modified urban economic gravity model to conduct a comparative analysis of the economic gravity among cities in China’s three major urban agglomerations,including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta,and the Pearl River Delta.The results show that,despite the ever-tightening economic linkages among cities in the urban agglomerations,the development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region falls behind that of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta in terms of coordination,closeness,and balance.The economic linkages among cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are not as cohesive as they could be and display a significant“siphon effect”through Beijing and Tianjin as well as a prominently unidirectional economic flow.This study suggests that efforts should be put into directing the orderly flow of resources from Beijing and Tianjin to cities in Hebei and promoting a balanced economic flow among cities,thus facilitating the coordination of regional development.

Ecological compensation mechanism for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on footprint balance and footprint deficit

Construction of the ecological compensation mechanism is an important approach to put the“Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Plan”into practice and improve the ecological environment of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.This paper constructs an ecological compensation mechanism for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on the footprint balance and footprint deficit after clarifying ecological governance objectives.First,this paper proposes to establish a uniform,hierarchical and classified supply mechanism of ecosystem services according to the classification of land resources,water resources and forest resources for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Then,the“Authority with Corresponding Responsibility”for the supply of ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can be realized through a footprint balance and footprint deficit indicator circulation mechanism.Finally,the scientific and rational ecological compensation standard can be guaranteed through establishing the integrated governance mechanism for ecological compensation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and improving the“ecological compensation standard”.The results of this paper can provide sound theoretical support for effectively promoting the improvement of ecosystem services and human well-being in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Hebei Talents Development Strategy under the Background of Talents Integration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

As the development of productive forces, the most critical and most active factors in people is the fimdamental driving force of regional economic sustainable development and cooperation has a vital role in regional economic development Only speed up regional economic cooperation and enforce the integration of regional talent development, can the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region achieves rapid development, and become China＇ s third largest economic growth pole, following the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta. Based on reviewing the integration process of the integration of regional talent development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebci region, this paper further analyze differences in the economic development status, the level of human capital, wage levels, employment status, and the development of educational science and technology among Hebei Province, Beijing and Tianjin, and concludes talent development strategy for Hebei Province replying the personnel integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province.

Analysis of the Higher Education Research in the Chengdu-Chongqing Region:A Comparative Perspective Based on Three Major Economic Circles in China

Drawing on literature regarding higher education research retrieved from the CNKI database from 1997 to 2021,this paper used CiteSpace to analyze the current status of higher education research in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.By comparing it with that in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,and the Yangtze River Delta,this paper concluded that the level of higher education research within a region is in line with the level of the region’s economic and social development.As higher education research in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle draws more and more attention,its research areas and topics are becoming increasingly diversified.However,by comparison,the research in this region features a late start and lower participation of researchers and research institutions,resulting in insufficient research in both quantity and quality.Therefore,it is essential to encourage more experts and scholars to participate in higher education research in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.Efforts should also be made to strengthen academic exchanges and cooperation between scholars in Chengdu and Chongqing and establish a long-term cooperation mechanism for higher education research between the two cities.Improved higher education research will definitely facilitate the construction of first-class universities,thus providing human capital and intellectual support for the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.

构建国家儿童区域医疗中心高层次人才管理体系实践

高层次人才是国家区域医疗中心建设的重要保障。介绍了河南省儿童医院以实现中原儿科协同发展为目标的高层次人才管理经验。从医院高层次人才管理面临的现实问题和难点问题出发,通过规范管理架构、明确管理目标、健全管理机制、建立绩效考核激励机制和“引、育、用”一体化管理机制等途径实现人才精益管理,高效推进国家儿童区域医疗中心建设。