Application of Bayesian regularized BP neural network model for analysis of aquatic ecological data—A case study of chlorophyll-a prediction in Nanzui water area of Dongting Lake

Bayesian regularized BP neural network（BRBPNN） technique was applied in the chlorophyll-α prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of the network were obtained. After the selection of input variables using stepwise/multiple linear regression method in SPSS i1.0 software, the BRBPNN model was established between chlorophyll-α and environmental parameters, biological parameters. The achieved optimal network structure was 3-11-1 with the correlation coefficients and the mean square errors for the training set and the test set as 0.999 and 0.000？8426, 0.981 and 0.0216 respectively. The sum of square weights between each input neuron and the hidden layer of optimal BRBPNN models of different structures indicated that the effect of individual input parameter on chlorophyll- α declined in the order of alga amount 〉 secchi disc depth（SD） 〉 electrical conductivity （EC）. Additionally, it also demonstrated that the contributions of these three factors were the maximal for the change of chlorophyll-α concentration, total phosphorus（TP） and total nitrogen（TN） were the minimal. All the results showed that BRBPNN model was capable of automated regularization parameter selection and thus it may ensure the excellent generation ability and robustness. Thus, this study laid the foundation for the application of BRBPNN model in the analysis of aquatic ecological data（chlorophyll-α prediction） and the explanation about the effective eutrophication treatment measures for Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake.

Assessing the Forecasting of Comprehensive Loss Incurred by Typhoons:A Combined PCA and BP Neural Network Model

This paper develops a joint model utilizing the principal component analysis(PCA)and the back propagation(BP)neural network model optimized by the Levenberg Marquardt(LM)algorithm,and as an application of the joint model to investigate the damages caused by typhoons for a coastal province,Fujian Province,China in 2005-2015(latest).First,the PCA is applied to analyze comprehensively the relationship between hazard factors,hazard bearing factors and disaster factors.Then five integrated indices,overall disaster level,typhoon intensity,damaged condition of houses,medical rescue and self-rescue capability,are extracted through the PCA;Finally,the BP neural network model,which takes the principal component scores as input and is optimized by the LM algorithm,is implemented to forecast the comprehensive loss of typhoons.It is estimated that an average annual loss of 138.514 billion RMB occurred for 2005-2015,with a maximum loss of 215.582 in 2006 and a decreasing trend since 2010 though the typhoon intensity increases.The model was validated using three typhoon events and it is found that the error is less than 1%.These results provide information for the government to increase medical institutions and medical workers and for the communities to promote residents’self-rescue capability.

APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODELING TO PLASMA ARC WELDING OF ALUMINUM ALLOYS

By using alternating current plasma arc welding,the influences were studied of such parameters as welding curent,arc voltage,welding speed,wire feed rate,and magnitude of ion gas flow on front melting width,wdle reinforcement,and back melting width of LF6 aluminum alloy.Model of the formation of welding seam in alternating current plasma arc welding of aluminum was set up with the method of artificial neural neural network - BP algorithm. Qyakuty of formation was consequently predicted and evaluated.The experimental result shows that,compared with other modeling methods,artificial network model can be used to more accurately predict formation of weld,and to guide the production practice.

TYRE DYNAMICS MODELLING OF VEHICLE BASED ON SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES

Various methods of tyre modelling are implemented from pure theoretical to empirical or semi-empirical models based on experimental results. A new way of representing tyre data obtained from measurements is presented via support vector machines （SVMs）. The feasibility of applying SVMs to steady-state tyre modelling is investigated by comparison with three-layer backpropagation （BP） neural network at pure slip and combined slip. The results indicate SVMs outperform the BP neural network in modelling the tyre characteristics with better generalization performance. The SVMsqyre is implemented in 8-DOF vehicle model for vehicle dynamics simulation by means of the PAC 2002 Magic Formula as reference. The SVMs-tyre can be a competitive and accurate method to model a tyre for vehicle dynamics simuLation.

Pattern changes and early risk warning of Spartina alterniflora invasion:a study of mangrove-dominated wetlands in northeastern Fujian,China

The exotic saltmarsh cordgrass,Spartina alterniflora(Loisel)Peterson&Saarela,is one of the important causes for the extensive destruction of mangroves in China due to its invasive nature.The species has rapidly spread wildly across coastal wetlands,challenging resource managers for control of its further spread.An investigation of S.alterniflora invasion and associated ecological risk is urgent in China's coastal wetlands.In this study,an ecological risk invasive index system was developed based on the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework.Predictions were made of'warning degrees':zero warning and light,moderate,strong,and extreme warning,by developing a back propagation(BP)artificial neural network model for coastal wetlands in eastern Fujian Province.Our results suggest that S.alterniflora mainly has invaded Kandelia candel beaches and farmlands with clustered distributions.An early warning indicator system assessed the ecological risk of the invasion and showed a ladder-like distribution from high to low extending from the urban area in the central inland region with changes spread to adjacent areas.Areas of light warning and extreme warning accounted for43%and 7%,respectively,suggesting the BP neural network model is reliable prediction of the ecological risk of S.alterniflora invasion.The model predicts that distribution pattern of this invasive species will change little in the next 10 years.However,the invaded patches will become relatively more concentrated without warning predicted.We suggest that human factors such as land use activities may partially determine changes in warning degree.Our results emphasize that an early warning system for S.alterniflora invasion in China's eastern coastal wetlands is significant,and comprehensive control measures are needed,particularly for K.candel beach.

Feasibility of measuring moisture content of green sand by a low frequency multiprobe detector based on dielectric characteristics

Green sand is a mixture of silica sand,bentonite,water and coal powder,and other additives.Moisture content is an important index to characterize the properties of green sand.Based on the dielectric characteristics of green sand and transmission line theory,a method for rapidly measuring the moisture content of green sand by means of a low frequency multiprobe detector was proposed.A system was constructed,where six detectors with different arrangements and probes were designed.The experimental results showed that the voltage difference of transmission line increases with the increasing frequency before 29 MHz while decreases after 35 MHz.A voltage difference platform occurs in the range of 29-35 MHz,which is suitable for measuring the moisture content due to its insensitivity to frequency.The electric field intensity gradually decreases with the increase of the probe depth,and the intensity of central probe is always greater than that of the edge probe.When the distance of the probe away from the sand sample surface is 80 mm,the electric field intensity of the edge probe is found to be very weak.The optimal excitation frequency for measuring the moisture content of green sand is 29-33 MHz.The optimal detector is the one with one center probe and three edge probes,and their lengths are 80 mm and 60 mm,respectively.The distance between the center and edge probes is 25 mm,and the diameter of probes is 5 mm.Taking the voltage difference of transmission line,bentonite content,coal powder content and compactability as parameters of the input layer,and the moisture content as a parameter of the output layer,a three-layer BP artificial neural network model for predicting the moisture content of green sand was constructed according to the experimental results at 33 MHz.The prediction error of the model is not higher than 3.3% when the moisture content of green sand is within the range of 3wt.%-7wt.%.

NEURAL NETWORK BP MODEL APPROXIMATION AND PREDICTION OF COMPLICATED WEATHER SYSTEMS

An artificial neural network BP model and its revised algorithm are used to approximate quite successfully a Lorenz chaotic dynamic system and the mapping relation is established between the indices of Southern Oscillation and equatorial zonal wind and lagged equatorial eastern Pacific sea surface temperature(SST) in the context of NCEP/NCAR data,and thereby a model is prepared. The constructed net model shows fairly high fit precision and feasible prediction accuracy,thus making itself of some usefulness to the prognosis of intricate weather systems.

Winter wheat leaf area index inversion by the genetic algorithms neural network model based on SAR data

The leaf area index(LAI)is an important agroecological physiological parameter affecting vegetation growth.To apply the genetic algorithms neural network model(GANNM)to the remote sensing inversion of winter wheat LAI throughout the growth cycle and based on GaoFen-3 Synthetic aperture radar(GF-3 SAR)images and GaoFen-1 Wide Field of View(GF-1 WFV)images,the Xiangfu District in the east of Kaifeng City,Henan Province,was selected as the testing region.Winter wheat LAI data from five growth stages were combined,and optical and microwave polarization decomposition vegetation index models were used.The backscattering coefficient was extracted by modified water cloud model(MWCM),and the LAI was obtained by MWCM inversion as input factors to construct GANNM to invert LAI.The root mean square error(RMSE)and determination coefficient(R2)were used as evaluation indicators of the model.The fitting accuracy of winter wheat LAI in five growth stages by GANNM inversion was better than that of the BP neural network model;the R2 was higher than 0.8,and RMSE was lower than 0.3,indicating that the model could accurately invert the growth status of winter wheat in five growth stages.

Optimization of Product Distribution for MIP Units Using Data Mining

Based on data from a petrochemical company’s MIP unit over the past three years,19 input variables and 2 output variables were selected for modeling using the maximum information coefficient and Pearson correlation coefficient among 155 variables,which included properties of feedstock oil and spent catalyst,operational variables,and material flows.The distillation range variables were reduced using factor analysis,and the feedstock oils were clustered into three types using the K-means++algorithm.Each feedstock oil type was then used as an input variable for modeling.An XGBoost model and a back propagation(BP)neural network model with a structure of 20-15-15-2 were developed to predict the combined yield of gasoline and propylene,as well as the coke yield.In the test set,the BP neural network model demonstrated better fitting and generalization abilities with a mean absolute percentage error and determination coefficient of 1.48%and 0.738,respectively,compared to the XGBoost model.It was therefore chosen for further optimization work.The genetic algorithm was utilized to optimize operational variables in order to increase the combined yield of gasoline and propylene while controlling the growth of coke yield.Seven commercial test results in the MIP unit showed an average increase of 1.39 percentage points for the combined yield of gasoline and propylene and an average decrease of 0.11 percentage points for coke yield.These results indicate that the model effectively improves the combined yield of gasoline and propylene while controlling the increase in coke yield.