A Bayesian approach is proposed for the inference of the geotechnical parameters used in slope design.The methodology involves the construction of posterior probability distributions that combine prior information on ...A Bayesian approach is proposed for the inference of the geotechnical parameters used in slope design.The methodology involves the construction of posterior probability distributions that combine prior information on the parameter values with typical data from laboratory tests and site investigations used in design.The posterior distributions are often complex,multidimensional functions whose analysis requires the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)methods.These procedures are used to draw representative samples of the parameters investigated,providing information on their best estimate values,variability and correlations.The paper describes the methodology to define the posterior distributions of the input parameters for slope design and the use of these results for evaluation of the reliability of a slope with the first order reliability method(FORM).The reliability analysis corresponds to a forward stability analysis of the slope where the factor of safety(FS)is calculated with a surrogate model from the more likely values of the input parameters.The Bayesian model is also used to update the estimation of the input parameters based on the back analysis of slope failure.In this case,the condition FS?1 is treated as a data point that is compared with the model prediction of FS.The analysis requires a sufficient number of observations of failure to outbalance the effect of the initial input parameters.The parameters are updated according to their uncertainty,which is determined by the amount of data supporting them.The methodology is illustrated with an example of a rock slope characterised with a Hoek-Brown rock mass strength.The example is used to highlight the advantages of using Bayesian methods for the slope reliability analysis and to show the effects of data support on the results of the updating process from back analysis of failure.展开更多
The basic features of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo such as geological conditions, dimensions, slip surfaces and groundwater conditions are described concisely in this paper. The formation mechanism of the s...The basic features of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo such as geological conditions, dimensions, slip surfaces and groundwater conditions are described concisely in this paper. The formation mechanism of the slope is discussed. It is considered that the formation of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo has undergone accumulation, slip, load, deformation and failure. The effects of rainfall on slope stability are categorized systematically based on existing methodology, and ways to determine the effects quantitatively are presented. The remained slip force method is improved by the addition of quantitative relations to the existing formulae and programs. The parameters of the colluvial deposit slope are determined through experimentation and the method of back-analysis. The safety factors of the slope are calculated with the improved remained slip force method and the Sarma method. The results show that rainfall and water level in the Yangtze River have a significant effect on the stability of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo. The hazards caused by the instability of the slope are assessed, and prevention methods are put forward.展开更多
基金supported by the Large Open Pit Ⅱ project through contract No.019799 with the Geotechnical Research Centre of The University of Queensland,Australia and by SRK Consulting South Africa
文摘A Bayesian approach is proposed for the inference of the geotechnical parameters used in slope design.The methodology involves the construction of posterior probability distributions that combine prior information on the parameter values with typical data from laboratory tests and site investigations used in design.The posterior distributions are often complex,multidimensional functions whose analysis requires the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)methods.These procedures are used to draw representative samples of the parameters investigated,providing information on their best estimate values,variability and correlations.The paper describes the methodology to define the posterior distributions of the input parameters for slope design and the use of these results for evaluation of the reliability of a slope with the first order reliability method(FORM).The reliability analysis corresponds to a forward stability analysis of the slope where the factor of safety(FS)is calculated with a surrogate model from the more likely values of the input parameters.The Bayesian model is also used to update the estimation of the input parameters based on the back analysis of slope failure.In this case,the condition FS?1 is treated as a data point that is compared with the model prediction of FS.The analysis requires a sufficient number of observations of failure to outbalance the effect of the initial input parameters.The parameters are updated according to their uncertainty,which is determined by the amount of data supporting them.The methodology is illustrated with an example of a rock slope characterised with a Hoek-Brown rock mass strength.The example is used to highlight the advantages of using Bayesian methods for the slope reliability analysis and to show the effects of data support on the results of the updating process from back analysis of failure.
文摘The basic features of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo such as geological conditions, dimensions, slip surfaces and groundwater conditions are described concisely in this paper. The formation mechanism of the slope is discussed. It is considered that the formation of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo has undergone accumulation, slip, load, deformation and failure. The effects of rainfall on slope stability are categorized systematically based on existing methodology, and ways to determine the effects quantitatively are presented. The remained slip force method is improved by the addition of quantitative relations to the existing formulae and programs. The parameters of the colluvial deposit slope are determined through experimentation and the method of back-analysis. The safety factors of the slope are calculated with the improved remained slip force method and the Sarma method. The results show that rainfall and water level in the Yangtze River have a significant effect on the stability of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo. The hazards caused by the instability of the slope are assessed, and prevention methods are put forward.
