Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM_(2.5)Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.

Spatial and temporal variation of water clarity in typical reservoirs in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region observed by GF 1-WFV satellite data

Rapidly monitoring regional water quality and the changing trend is of great practical and scientific significance,especially for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region of China where water resources are relatively scarce and inland water bodies are generally small.The remote sensing data of the GF 1 satellite launched in 2013 have characteristics of high spatial and temporal resolution,which can be used for the dynamic monitoring of the water environment in small lakes and reservoirs.However,the water quality remote sensing monitoring model based on the GF 1 satellite data for lakes and reservoirs in BTH is still lacking because of the considerable differences in the optical characteristics of the lakes and reservoirs.In this paper,the typical reservoirs in BTH-Guanting Reservoir,Yuqiao Reservoir,Panjiakou Reservoir,and Daheiting Reservoir are taken as the study areas.In the atmospheric correction of GF 1-WFV,the relative radiation normalized atmospheric correction was adopted after comparing it with other methods,such as 6 S and FLAASH.In the water clarity retrieval,a water color hue angle based model was proposed and outperformed other available published models,with the R 2 of 0.74 and MRE of 31.7%.The clarity products of the four typical reservoirs in the BTH region in 2013-2019 were produced using the GF 1-WFV data.Based on the products,temporal and spatial changes in clarity were analyzed,and the main influencing factors for each water body were discussed.It was found that the clarity of Guanting,Daheiting,and Panjiakou reservoirs showed an upward trend during this period,while that of Yuqiao Reservoir showed a downward trend.In the influencing factors,the water level of the water bodies can be an important factor related to the water clarity changes in this region.

Earthquake relocation using a 3D velocity model and implications on seismogenic faults in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

To enhance the understanding of the geometry and characteristics of seismogenic faults in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,we relocated 14805 out of 16063 earthquakes(113°E-120°E,36°N-43°N)that occurred between January 2008 and December 2020 using the double-difference tomography method.Based on the spatial variation in seismicity after relocation,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can be divided into three seismic zones:Xingtai-Wen'an,Zhangbei-Ninghexi,and Tangshan.(1)The Xingtai-Wen'an Seismic Zone has a northeastsouthwest strike.The depth profile of earthquakes perpendicular to the strike reveals three northeast-striking,southeast-dipping,high-angle deep faults(>10 km depth),including one below the shallow(<10 km depth)listric,northwest-dipping Xinghe fault in the Xingtai region.Two additional deep faults in the Wen'an region are suggested to be associated with the 2006 M 5.1 Wen'an Earthquake and the 1967 M 6.3 Dacheng earthquake;(2)The Zhangbei-Ninghexi Seismic Zone is oriented north-northwest.Multiple northeast-striking faults(10-20 km depth),inferred from the earthquake-intensive zones,exist beneath the shallow(<10 km depth)Xiandian Fault,Xiaotangshan Fault,Huailai-Zhuolu Basin North Fault,Yangyuan Basin Fault and Yanggao Basin North Fault;(3)In the Tangshan Seismic Zone,earthquakes are mainly concentrated near the northeast-striking Tangshan-Guye Fault,Lulong Fault,and northwest-striking Luanxian-Laoting Fault.An inferred north-south-oriented blind fault is present to the north of the Tangshan-Guye Fault.The 1976 M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake occurred at the junction of a shallow northwest-dipping fault and a deep southeast-dipping fault.This study emphasizes that earthquakes in the region are primarily associated with deep blind faults.Some deep blind faults have different geometries compared to shallow faults,suggesting a complex fault system in the region.Overall,this research provides valuable insights into the seismogenic faults in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region.Further studies and monitoring of these faults are essential for earthquake mitigation efforts in this region.

Research on Strategies to Promote the Integration of Industrial Chain,Innovation Chain,and Supply Chain in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

With the rapid development of international economic integration,industrial competition has gradually evolved from a competition of enterprise capabilities and resources to a game of comprehensive system collaboration capabilities among all participating parties.That is,the competition in the current international economy has evolved into an interactive and collaborative competition among the“three chains”of industry chain,capital chain,and innovation chain.Based on analyzing the current situation of the integration of the industrial chain,innovation chain,and supply chain,this article deeply analyzes the geographical advantages of the three chains in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.From the perspective of scientific and technological innovation and talent cooperation synergy,it proposes the integration strategy of the three chains in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Investigating the Changes in Air Pollutant Emissions over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in February from 2014 to 2019 through an Inverse Emission Method

In recent years,China has implemented several measures to improve air quality.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region is one area that has suffered from the most serious air pollution in China and has undergone huge changes in air quality in the past few years.How to scientifically assess these change processes remain the key issue in further improving the air quality over this region in the future.To evaluate the changes in major air pollutant emissions over this region,this paper employs ensemble Kalman filtering(EnKF)for integrating the national ground monitoring pollutant observation data and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System(NAQPMS)simulation data to inversely estimate the emission rates of SO_(2),NOX,CO,and primary PM_(2.5)over BTH region in February from 2014 to 2019.The results show that SO_(2),NOX,CO,and primary PM_(2.5)emissions in the BTH region decreased in February from 2014 to 2019 by 83%,37%,41%,and 42%,while decreases in Beijing during this period were 86%,67%,59%,and 65%,respectively.Compared with the prior emission inventory,the inversion emission inventory reduces the uncertainty of multi-pollutant simulation in the BTH region,with simulated root mean square errors of the monthly average concentrations of SO_(2),NOX,PM_(2.5),and CO reduced by 41%,30%,31%,and 22%,respectively.The average uncertainties of SO_(2),NOX,PM_(2.5),and CO inversion emissions in2014-19 are±14.03%yr^(-1),±28.91%yr^(-1),±126.15%yr^(-1),and±43.58%yr^(-1).Compared with the uncertainty of MEIC emission,the uncertainties of all species changed by+2%yr^(-1),-2%yr^(-1),-26%yr^(-1),and-4%yr^(-1),respectively.The spatial distribution results illustrate that air pollutant emissions are mainly distributed over the eastern and southern BTH regions.The spatial gap between the inversion emissions and MEIC emissions was further closed in 2019 compared to 2014.The results of this paper can provide a new reference for assessing changes in air pollution emissions over the BTH region in recent years and validating a bottom-up emission inventory.

Spatial Variability of PM_(2.5) Pollution in Imbalanced Natural and Socioeconomic Processes: Evidence from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China

Accurately identifying and quantifying the factors influencing PM_(2.5) pollution is of great significance for the prevention and control of pollution. However, the redundancy among potential factors of PM_(2.5) may be overlooked. Meanwhile, the inconsistent spatial distribution of the natural and socioeconomic conditions brings unique implications for the cities within a region, which may lead to an uncertain understanding of the relationship between pollution and environmental factors. This study focused on the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH) Region, China, which presents complex and varied background conditions. Potential impact factors on PM_(2.5) were firstly screened by combining systematic cluster analysis with a random forest recursive feature elimination algorithm. Then, the representative multi-factor responsible for PM_(2.5) pollution in the region during the key period of 2014–2018(when the strict national air pollution control policy was implemented). The results showed that the key driving factors of PM_(2.5) pollution in the BTH cities are different, indicating that the uniqueness of a city will have an impact on the leading causes of pollution. Further discussion shows that air control policy provides an effective way to improve air quality. This study aims to deepen the understanding of the risk drivers of air pollution within the BTH Region. In the future, it is recommended that more attention should be paid to the specific differences between the cities when formulating PM_(2.5) concentration control measures.

Assessing the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on environmental pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region using spatial panel data model

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the vanguard of economic development in northern China.Its manufacturing industry is more and more developed,but environmental pollution is also more serious.Based on the data of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2017 to 2021,the paper verifies the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on environmental pollution.Both manufacturing agglomeration and environmental pollution are dependent on spatial distribution.Therefore,the paper selects spatial econometric model to study.First,the spatial lag model and spatial error model are constructed,and then the spatial lag model is selected through the results of OLS regression,LM Test and Hausman test,and the empirical process is carried out.Finally,the empirical results are analyzed and the conclusion is drawn.

基于环京周边蔬菜生产基地建设的京津冀协同发展机制研究

环京合作圈是北京蔬菜生产供应体系建设的重要内容之一。环京周边蔬菜生产基地建设成为京津冀协同发展的重要载体,是农业领域践行京津冀协同发展战略的重要体现。基于调研,梳理了三地协同推进环京周边蔬菜生产基地建设的相关机制,并以基地建设为基础分析了三地协同发展面临的问题,最后提出对策建议,旨在推进环京基地建设、健全京津冀三地农业协同发展政策机制提供借鉴与参考。

京津冀地区柴油移动燃烧源污染减排潜力预测

包含柴油车辆和柴油机械的柴油移动燃烧源是现阶段中国进一步持续改善空气质量的重点源。为探究京津冀地区柴油移动燃烧源的污染排放以及减排潜力,在估算2018年京津冀地区柴油车辆和柴油机械污染排放现状的基础上,设置基准情景和5种政策情景,预测2019—2030年不同情景下柴油燃烧源的污染排放趋势,对比分析不同地区、不同源的污染物减排潜力和不同减排措施对不同类型柴油燃烧源的减排效果。结果表明,京津冀地区2018年柴油燃烧源的CO、HC、NO_(x)和PM排放量分别为51.25、22.89、106.52和5.42万t。综合情景下,2030年CO、HC、NO_(x)和PM污染物排放量可分别比基准年减少52.03%、38.58%、71.88%和52.07%。淘汰高排放情景在短时间内的减排效果较好,而长期效果不佳,提升排放标准情景和推广新能源情景的减排潜力会逐年增加,对污染物有较好的减排作用,运输公转铁情景的减排潜力也较好,2030年能有效减少35.13%~45.81%的污染排放。综合情景下柴油车辆和柴油机械的最大减排潜力分别为91.55%和44.69%。此外,CO和NO_(x)的减排潜力主要来源于柴油车辆,而柴油机械对HC和PM的减排效果明显。与其他2个地区相比,天津市的污染减排效果较好,最大减排潜力为80.80%。分类型来看,柴油货车对污染物的减排贡献较大,尤其是重型货车。与工程机械相比,农业机械的污染减排贡献更大,尤其是联合收割机、农用水泵以及三轮车的减排贡献突出。研究结果可为制定柴油移动源的污染控制政策提供科学支持。

BTH诱导黄瓜幼苗对霜霉病的抗性与细胞壁HRGP和木质素含量的关系

目的苯并噻二唑(BTH)对黄瓜幼苗霜霉病的诱导抗性与苯丙氨酸解氨酶(PAL)活性、过氧化物酶(POD)活性、木质素和富含羟脯氨酸糖蛋白(HRGP)含量的关系。方法用比色法对BTH诱导或接种霜霉菌的植株进行PAL和POD活性以及木质素和HRGP含量的测定。结果BTH不仅能提高黄瓜幼苗对霜霉病的抗性,而且明显提高了PAL和POD的活性以及木质素和HRGP的含量。BTH诱导处理和霜霉菌侵染黄瓜叶片,细胞壁中HRGP的积累与木质素的沉积在时间进程中表现出明显的同步性。结论HRGP的积累和细胞壁的木质化与黄瓜对霜霉病的抗性反应有关,是寄主抗病反应的生化机制之一。

BTH和SA处理及白粉菌接种对甜瓜叶片光合特性的影响

以抗病品种Tam Dew和感病品种卡拉克赛为材料,研究了BTH和SA处理及白粉菌接种对甜瓜叶片叶面积、叶绿素含量、净光合速率、气孔导度、胞间CO2浓度的影响.结果表明,BTH和SA处理及白粉菌接种对甜瓜苗期叶面积扩展无显著影响;BTH和SA处理植株的叶片(第3叶)和新生叶片(第5叶)的净光合速率、叶绿素含量和气孔导度显著高于对照;白粉菌接种后,2个甜瓜叶片的叶绿素含量、净光合速率和气孔导度显著降低,而BTH和SA处理能缓解由白粉菌接种带来的叶绿素含量、净光合速率和气孔导度的下降趋势.说明BTH和SA处理能延长甜瓜叶片的光合寿命,延缓甜瓜叶片的叶绿素含量、净光合速率和气孔导度的下降趋势.

BTH和BABA处理对采后沙糖桔病害和品质的影响

对沙糖桔采后果实进行BTH和BABA渗透处理,结果表明:0.025g/LBTH和0.5g/LBABA处理均能明显降低沙糖桔自然发病率,在一定程度上抑制了果实的呼吸强度,并且使沙糖桔果实的硬度、Vc含量、可滴定酸含量和可溶性固形物含量得到较好地保持,提高了沙糖桔采后的贮藏品质。

苯并噻二唑(BTH)诱导烟草抗青枯病活性与抗病机理研究

利用离体叶片注射感病的方法,测定了BTH在100、50、25、12.5、6.25μg/mL浓度下,诱导烟草抗烟草青枯病的活性。结果表明:经BTH处理的烟叶病情指数均显著低于对照处理。处理14 d后,50μg/mL BTH处理的烟叶相对诱导活性达到50%以上。检测与抗性相关的防御酶系活性的动态变化发现,在25μg/mL的BTH浓度下,处理叶片的4种防御酶:苯并氨酸解氨酶(PAL),过氧化物酶(POD),多酚氧化酶(PPO)及超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活性都有所提高,与对照比提高率分别达127.5%,54.9%,47.1%和70.3%。表明BTH诱导烟草抗青枯病的机理与激活植物体内防御酶活性有关。

苯并噻二唑(BTH)诱导黄瓜幼苗对霜霉病抗性的研究

用0.5mmol/LBTH(苯并噻二唑)溶液在接种黄瓜霜霉病菌前4、8、12、24、48、96、168h(7d)和接种后2、4d处理二叶期的黄瓜幼苗,结果表明BTH对霜霉病菌无直接的抑制作用,但能诱导黄瓜幼苗对霜霉病产生局部和系统的抗性,系统抗性的表达在处理后48h产生并持续7d以上。几丁质酶和β13葡聚糖酶活性测定结果表明,BTH处理可系统性地增强这两种酶的活性,且与黄瓜对霜霉病的诱导抗性密切相关。

诱抗剂BTH诱导甜瓜幼苗抗白粉病相关酶活性的研究

应用植物诱抗剂苯丙噻重氮(BTH)和接种白粉菌处理抗白粉病能力不同的2个甜瓜品种,通过测定不同部位叶片过氧化物酶(POD)、多酚氧化酶(PPO)和苯丙氨酸解氨酶(PAL)活性,研究诱抗处理和病原菌侵染对甜瓜防御酶系统的影响。结果表明:BTH处理和白粉菌接种后,甜瓜叶片POD、PPO和PAL活性都显著提高;BTH对抗病品种POD、PPO活性的作用在时间和强度上都早于(大于)感病品种,BTH喷雾和白粉菌接种对不同抗性甜瓜叶片PAL活性的提高程度没有差异,但在时间上,对抗病品种的作用远早于感病品种。试验结果还表明,BTH诱导甜瓜叶片防御酶活性的效应可以通过植物的输导组织传导给其他未经处理的甜瓜组织,提高植物防御酶活性,具有系统诱导作用。

采后BTH处理对苹果果实苯丙烷代谢和病程相关蛋白积累的增强作用

本文探讨采后苯丙噻重氮(BTH)处理对苹果果实苯丙烷代谢和病程相关蛋白产生的增强作用。以"国光"苹果为试材,采后用100mg/L BTH浸泡处理10min,测定处理对果实苯丙烷代谢相关酶活性、产物积累和病程相关蛋白产生的影响。结果表明,BTH处理显著提高了苹果果实体内苯丙氨酸解氨酶(PAL)、4-香豆素辅酶A连接酶(4CL)的活性,增加了总酚、类黄酮及木质素含量,同时提高了β-1,3葡聚糖酶(GLU)、几丁质酶(CHT)和过氧化物酶(POD)的活性。由此表明,采后BTH处理可通过诱导果实苯丙烷代谢和促进病程相关蛋白的产生来增强果实对采后病害的抗性。

草酸和BTH对黄瓜幼苗霜霉病抗性和胞间隙病程相关蛋白的诱导

本文研究了草酸和BTH(苯并噻二唑)溶液对黄瓜幼苗霜霉病的抗性诱导及病程相关蛋白的积累。结果表明:10mmol/L草酸或0.5 mmol/L BTH均能诱导黄瓜对霜霉病产生局部和系统抗性,且抗性的持久期均在15 d以上。BTH处理或接种霜霉菌都可系统诱导黄瓜叶片胞间隙液产生分子量分别为33、27和22 kD的蛋白,而草酸没有诱导这3种蛋白的表达。BTH或草酸处理均可引起POD活性的升高,但和对照相比并没有新的POD同工酶表达,POD活性升高与黄瓜对霜霉病的抗性有关。

BTH对厚皮甜瓜抗病性的诱导作用研究

在大棚内使用植物抗病性诱导剂 BTH 75μg.m L-1用药 2次 ,对甜瓜白粉病和细菌角斑病防治效果可达 6 0 %左右。 BTH用药 50 μg.m L-1,或仅用药 1次 ,则效果较差。 BTH对采后病害也具有良好的防治作用 ,甜瓜采后处理可推迟发病 1～ 2周。抗病性诱导剂 BTH用量少 ,无环境污染 ,防治效果好 ,是一种具有广泛应用前景的新型植物病害防治剂。本文首次报道了 BTH对甜瓜白粉病。

不同品种芒果采后抗炭疽病最适BTH浓度研究

分别采用0，50，100，200和300mg／L5种不同浓度的BTH处理“象牙芒”和 “台农”两个芒果品种，72h后，用炭疽病菌对其进行损伤接种，贮于15℃和相对湿度为75％～85％条件下．通过对果实发病率、病班面积、色泽和硬度变化研究表明，在50～300mg／L范围内，BTH处理均有不同程度的处理效果．其中，“象牙芒”采用200mg／L，“台农”采用50mg／L的BTH处理效果最好，均能显著降低芒果果实炭疽病的发病率、色泽的转黄程度和果实软化，有效延缓果实病斑面积扩展速度和大小．

苯并噻二唑(BTH)和β-氨基丁酸(BABA)对茶树新梢生长和品质成分的影响

通过设定不同浓度的BTH和BABA对2年生龙井43进行喷雾处理,探讨两种物质对茶树新梢部分生长指标、茶鲜叶主要品质化学成分的含量和相关代谢酶活性的影响。结果表明,与对照相比,处理后新梢芽长和芽重、含水量、干物质量差异不显著(P>0.05)。鲜叶中多酚类物质、总氨基酸、咖啡碱和可溶性蛋白的含量均有不同程度的提高,75 mg·L-1 BTH处理后含量分别增加了29.32%、49.10%、23.77%、96.34%;400 mg·L-1 BABA处理后含量分别增加了15.75%、45.50%、21.31%、87.18%。可溶性糖含量和酚氨比降低。PPO和GS两种酶的活性明显提高,而POD和PAL的活性相应降低。以上研究初步表明75 mg·L-1的BTH和400 mg·L-1的BABA可以通过调节茶叶的主要化学品质成分和相关酶的活性,在一定程度上改善茶叶的品质。