Influencing Factors of Total Factor Energy Efficiency in Bohai Rim Region Based on DEA-Tobit Model

Bohai Rim region is an important economic development area and a large carbon emission area in China.It is of great significance to explore the total factor energy efficiency and its influencing factors for the low carbon transformation and high-quality development of the Bohai Rim region.Based on the total factor energy efficiency framework,the DDF-DEA model was used to calculate the total factor energy efficiency,and the internal and external differences of the total factor energy efficiency were further analyzed.The internal and external influencing factors were determined by ML index method and classical endogenous growth theory,and then the Tobit panel model was used to empirically analyze the action mechanism of all influencing factors of total factor energy efficiency in the Bohai Rim region.The results show that the pure technical efficiency,scale efficiency and technological progress among the internal influencing factors contribute to the improvement of energy efficiency in the Bohai Rim region.Industrial structure,industrial internal structure and ownership structure inhibit the improvement of energy efficiency.Energy consumption structure and energy endowment also have a negative impact on energy efficiency.Therefore,measures such as promoting technological progress,adjusting economic structure and optimizing energy structure will effectively improve total factor energy efficiency in the Bohai Rim region.

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Marine Fishery Industry Ecosystem Vulnerability in the Bohai Rim Region

The building of the ocean power strategy and the implementation of the blue agriculture plan urgently need to strengthen the sustainable development of marine fishery.Taking vulnerability as the starting point, this paper constructs the vulnerability index system of marine fishery industry ecosystem from the aspects of sensitivity and response capacity, and combines the entropy method with the Topsis to comprehensively analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of vulnerability of marine fishery industry ecosystem in the Bohai Rim Region from 2001 to 2015.The results show that: 1) In the time dimension, from 2001 to 2015, the vulnerability of the marine fishery industry ecosystem in the Bohai Rim Region shows a fluctuant and degressive trend;2) In the spatial dimension, the spatial distribution of the marine fishery industry ecosystem vulnerability in the Bohai Rim Region presents the gradient characteristics which shows high vulnerability in the east and low vulnerability in the west.According to the evolution track of the system’s vulnerability level, the vulnerability of the marine fishery industry ecosystem is divided into ‘declining’ and ‘stable’ types of evolutionary structures;3) The development of marine fishery in the Bohai Rim Region needs to be derived from the marine fishery’s ecological environment and the industrial development mode and structure, which can improve the marine environment remediation efforts, optimize the marine fishery industry structure, vigorously focus on pelagic fishery, and enhance the introduction of marine fishery’s science and technology talents, etc.Then, the marine fishery’s development in the Bohai Rim Region will be moving in the green, circular and sustainable direction.

Clarifying the relationship between PM2.5 and ozone complex pollution and synoptic patterns in a typical petrochemical city in the Bohai Rim region of China:Implications for air pollution forecasting and control

Meteorological conditions are vital to PM_(2.5)and ozone(O_(3))complex pollution.Herein,the T-mode principal com-ponent analysis method was employed to objectively classify the 925-hPa geopotential height field of Dongying from 2017 to 2022.Synoptic patterns associated with four pollution types-namely,PM_(2.5)-only pollution,O_(3)-only pollution,Co-occurring of PM_(2.5)and O_(3)pollution,Non-occurring of PM_(2.5)and O_(3)pollution-were characterized at different time scales.The results indicated that synoptic classes conducive to PM_(2.5)-only pollution were“high-pressure top front”,“offshore high-pressure rear”,and“high-pressure inside”,while those conducive to O_(3)-only pollution were“offshore high-pressure rear”,“subtropical high”,and“high and low systems”.The Co-occurring of PM_(2.5)and O_(3)pollution were influenced by high pressure,and the Non-occurring of PM_(2.5)and O_(3)pollution were linked to precipitation and strong northerly winds.The variation in dominant synoptic patterns is crucial in the frequency changes of the four pollution types,which was further validated through the analysis of typical cases.Under the favorable meteorological conditions of high-pressure control with strong northerly winds or a subtropical high and inverted trough both with strong precipitation,there is potential to achieve coordinated control of PM_(2.5)and O_(3)in Dongying.Additionally,measures like artificially manipulating local humidity could be adopted to alleviate pollution levels.This study reveals the importance of comprehending the meteorological factors contributing to the formation of PM_(2.5)and O_(3)complex pollution for the improvement of urban air quality in the Bohai Rim region of China when emissions are high and the concentration of air pollutants exhibits high meteorological sensitivity.

Process and cause of urban-rural development transformation in the Bohai Rim Region, China

China＇s reform and opening-up policy has brought the country a great development opportunity. The high-speed growth of the economy not only led China to a period of industrialization, urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization, but also exacerbated the situation of the urban–rural dual structure. Based on the review of current studies, we first used the analytic hierarchy process（AHP） method to evaluate the urban–rural development and transformation level by population transformation index, land transformation index, industrial transformation index and social transformation index between 1996 and 2012 around the Bohai Rim Region. Then, based on the results of each index, we used the exploratory spatial data analysis（ESDA） method to investigate the spatial autocorrelation of the change in the urban–rural development transformation index during the 16-year period using Global Moran＇s I index and Local Moran＇s I index. Finally, we investigated the mechanism of change of the urban–rural development transformation index at county level, summarizing five main factors：（1） the radiation from the surrounding big cities,（2） the acceleration of the urbanization process,（3） the upgrading of the industrial structure,（4） the publishing and implementation of a macro development strategy and regional policy, and（5） natural factors such as topology.

Regional carrying capacity: case studies of Bohai Rim area

Carrying capacity research has been carried out for a long time. However, synthesized carrying capacity researches based on systematic views began only in the 1970s. There is even less work done in China. This paper tries to address both synthesized carrying capacity research and its utilization in China. State spaces method from the systematic science was borrowed to construct the conceptual model of regional carrying capacity. Based on the conceptual model and the surveys in the Bohai Rim area, we construct a representative indicators system for quantifying regional carrying capacity in the Bohai Rim. While employing system dynamic models we simulated the evolving trend of both the regional carrying states and regional carrying capacity from 1999 to 2015. The results proved the statement that Bohai Rim is overall over-capacity for a long time and will be over-capacity in the foreseeable future. Among all the restriction factors, water shortage and environmental pollution stand out to be the two primary obstacles for Bohai Rims sustainable development. Regional differentiation analysis further indicates that coastal areas of the Bohai Rim burden more than its overall level. However, Shandong province shows some good signs in addressing the regional carrying capacity issues. The research is successful in addressing the quantification of regional carrying capacity issues, but nonetheless it needs further refinery and more information.

环渤海传统民居谱系研究思路与方法

环渤海地区在人文地理、自然气候以及社会经济等方面具有典型特征,以往有关该区域的民居研究多针对内陆或分散展开,缺乏对民居文化挖掘及其现代传承的系统研究。本文从环渤海整体视角展开,提出环渤海传统民居谱系的概念,采用建筑类型学、文化地理学、方言语系分区以及数据统计分析等定量、定性方法,结合课题研究进展与阶段成果,从民居谱系区划特征与关联机制、地域民居体系等方面,探讨了环渤海传统民居谱系研究的整体性技术框架及其实现途径,以期指导相关研究。所取得阶段成果有助于推进、深化研究内容,进而形成整体性成果,以弥补传统分散研究的缺憾,并为地域文化保护、传承和乡村人居环境提升提供技术支撑。

环渤海地区空气质量时空变化特征及动态预测

基于环渤海地区2017—2021年各城市空气质量指数(AQI)、污染物浓度与社会经济数据,利用数理统计、克里金插值法对环渤海地区AQI与污染物浓度的时空变化特征进行分析,运用皮尔逊相关性分析方法探讨AQI与污染物浓度、社会经济因素的相关关系,采用时间序列预测模型对2022年6月—2023年12月空气质量及污染物浓度进行预测。结果表明:环渤海地区AQI及污染物浓度大致呈逐年降低的趋势。AQI的逐月变化呈“W”形,O_(3)浓度的年内变化呈倒“V”形,其余污染物则呈现与O_(3)相反的变化趋势。AQI大致呈现西南高、东北低的空间分布特点,而污染物浓度分布具有明显的空间差异。环渤海地区5个代表性城市的AQI类别以良好为主,冬季首要污染物主要为PM_(2.5)、PM10,夏季首要污染物以O_(3)为主。人口数量是影响AQI的主要因素,城市园林绿地面积对AQI具有一定影响。预测结果显示,未来环渤海地区AQI、主要污染物浓度(O_(3)除外)均呈现出随时间的推移逐渐下降的变化趋势。

减污降碳协同效应空间关联关系及驱动因素研究

剖析减污降碳协同效应的空间关联特征及成因是引导区域协同共治的前提,对推动新质生产力发展具有重要意义。基于耦合协调模型测度2011-2021年环渤海地区43个城市的减污降碳协同效应,应用社会网络分析法和二次指派程序探究其空间关联网络特征及驱动因素。结果表明:①研究期间,环渤海地区减污降碳协同效应的最高值为0.43,尚未进入高质量协调发展阶段,超过80%的城市处于降碳滞后型失调阶段。②减污降碳协同效应空间关联网络呈以天津市为主核心的“局部集聚”和“全局关联”并存特征,个体中心性差异突出,网络结构稳定性亟待提升。③各板块内部成员相对较为稳定,板块间存在更为显著的溢出效应。④地理邻近、产业结构合理化、能源利用、经济发展、节能环保、技术水平的差异对减污降碳协同效应空间关联关系的形成发挥促进作用,而通风系数的差异起抑制作用。研究显示,环渤海地区减污降碳协同效应的空间关联程度较低,建议通过强化核心主体的稳定作用、实施社团差异化的减排措施、拓展区域合作等路径推进减污降碳协同增效。

环渤海地区环境规制强度与土地利用净碳排放量耦合协调的时空格局演化分析

环渤海地区是我国减排降碳的重点区域。基于2005—2020年环渤海地区3省2市共43个城市土地利用与城市面板数据,分析环境规制强度与土地利用净碳排放的时空格局演变特征及其耦合协调情况,并进一步探究影响该地区净碳排放的主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)环渤海地区环境规制与净碳排放量耦合程度不高,环境规制的增强滞后于区域净碳排放量的增长,环境规制对地区净碳排放的约束性不强。(2)净碳排放量与环境规制强度均呈现中部高、北部低的空间分布格局,这与各城市职能定位相符,北部地区作为重要的“生态长城”,高能耗高污染企业鲜有分布。(3)环境规制有效地遏制环渤海地区净碳排放,通过分析发现,环境规制强度、经济活动、能源消耗强度、产业结构与科技投入是影响环渤海地区净碳排放量差异的主要驱动因素。

以银杏古树为节点的环渤海地区国家森林步道建设构想

银杏古树是中国历史文化的重要标识,以银杏古树作为节点建设森林步道可能具有重要的生态、经济和文化意义。文中以环渤海地区为研究对象,调查区域内银杏古树128处161株,评价其区域适宜性、旅游适宜性、建设适宜性,认为总体上银杏古树适宜作为环渤海森林步道的节点。从综合评价来看,适宜作为步道节点的银杏古树,共计100处117株,其中32株古树重点推荐作为途经节点。初步设计了以银杏古树为节点的环渤海地区森林步道选线方案,由6条线路构成,即大连—丹东—迁安线、北京北线、北京南线、易县—肥城线、肥城—淄博—海阳线、肥城—莒县—荣成线,途经银杏古树79处96株,总里程约为7352 km。在此基础上,根据环渤海森林步道以银杏古树为节点这一特色,提出优化建设机制、加强银杏古树原真性保护、加强步道生态保护、强化资金保障、推进步道使用、加强代表性景观的宣传等建议。

环渤海地区农业优势的时空演变研究

研究某一区域农业及其细分行业的优势,可以激发该区域农业的发展潜力,优化农业结构,促进农业合理布局,提高农产品竞争力.该文将重心法、区位商和增长商等方法相结合,对环渤海地区整体和区内各省市的农业及其细分行业的比较优势和增长优势进行分析,结果表明:环渤海地区农业整体发展水平较高,除京津两市外,其余三省农业都具有比较优势.山东省的种植业和渔业、河北省的种植业、林业和畜牧业、辽宁省的种植业、畜牧业和渔业比较优势突出.1990年—2020年环渤海地区的种植业增速放缓,林业和畜牧业具有明显的行业增长,有适合区域增长优势,发展潜力巨大,渔业的增长幅度稍缓.从空间格局来看,环渤海地区有约70%的城市农业具有比较优势,大部分城市的林业和渔业产值增速高于全国平均水平.环渤海地区农业在全国的比较优势较强,但种植业和畜牧业的增长速度较为乏力,林业和渔业增速较快,但在全国比较优势并不占优,应因地制宜,推动农业现代化,促进农业综合发展.

基于状态空间法的环渤海地区海洋生态承载力评价与时空演化分析

近年来,海洋经济的蓬勃发展、海洋的开发与利用规模不断扩大,同时也造成严峻的海洋生态问题,制约着我国海洋经济的可持续发展。为更好地经略海洋,实现海洋经济的可持续发展,需要对海洋生态承载力进行科学评判,在可控范围内对海洋进行科学的开发与利用。为此,本文从社会经济、科学技术、资源禀赋以及环境生态四个层面构建海洋生态承载力评价指标体系,结合状态空间法,对环渤海地区三省一市2010-2020年的海洋生态承载力的时空差异与特征进行探讨,并提出改善环渤海地区海洋生态承载力的对策建议。研究结果表明:环渤海地区海洋生态承载力整体水平较低,且地域间存在明显差异,山东省与辽宁省处于基本可载状态,天津市与河北省处于不可载状态。从时序层面,2010-2020年三省一市海洋生态承载力保持整体平稳略有上升的态势。

构建环渤海区域高质量发展新格局:现实挑战、优化思路与政策建议

环渤海区域是中国北方经济发展的重要增长极,促进环渤海经济高质量发展对于遏制南北差距扩大趋势、加快构建新发展格局、更好地统筹发展和安全都具有重要意义。然而,由于区位条件存在相对劣势、产业转型升级滞后、市场活力不足、协同发展格局尚未形成等因素的影响,当前环渤海区域发展面临着增长速度有所减慢、增长动力结构失衡、产业竞争能力不强、要素集聚和配置效率不高等问题,高质量发展受到制约。对此,可从战略设计、发展目标、发展原则、发展抓手、发展载体等五个方面统筹推动环渤海区域高质量发展。基于这一思路,提出以提高战略地位为支撑、以明确发展定位为基础、以推动产业转型升级为抓手、以促进区域协调发展为纽带、以深化体制机制改革为保障等具体政策建议。

再论环渤海地区对外直接投资对制造业出口技术复杂度的影响

基于2009-2021年中国环渤海地区五省市面板数据,构建双向固定效应模型,实证探讨OFDI对环渤海地区制造业出口技术复杂度有何影响。实证结果表明:对外直接投资对环渤海地区制造业产品出口技术复杂度具有显著的提升作用,其中,对资本密集型制造业影响最大,其次是技术密集型制造业,而对劳动密集型制造业并未呈现统计意义上的影响。提升对外直接投资规模,加快环渤海地区制造业结构升级,增加科研投入,增强研发创新能力,有益于推动环渤海地区制造业出口技术复杂度提升。

基于文旅融合背景的环渤海地区避暑旅游高质量发展研究

文旅融合发展是统筹文化事业、文化产业发展和旅游资源开发的重要抓手。基于文旅融合发展背景,采用文献研究、实地调研、逻辑分析等方法,系统研究环渤海地区避暑旅游发展的条件、现状及存在问题。研究表明,旅游产品同质化严重、服务质量参差不齐、市场推广力度不足、文旅融合深度不够、区域合作有待夯实、生态环保亟需加强等是环渤海地区避暑旅游发展中现存的主要问题。同时,提出促进区域避暑旅游高质量的具体路径,主要包括:加强产品创新、优化服务体验、强化市场推广、推动文旅融合、夯实区域合作及加强生态环保等,以期为推动环渤海地区避暑旅游的高质量发展提供参考借鉴。

环渤海地区物流网络空间布局结构研究

以环渤海地区28个城市为研究对象,根据2020年统计数据,运用修正引力模型构建了环渤海地区物流网络,并通过社会网络分析法对网络结构特征进行了分析。结果表明:环渤海地区物流网络整体呈现“中部强,两翼弱”的空间布局特征;网络整体密度较高、关联性较好,形成了以北京—天津为双核心、以京津冀地区为核心区的“核心—半核心—边缘”结构;北京、天津所在凝聚子群的辐射作用突出,其他子群的结构稳定性较差,子群内外协作关系需要进一步完善。

环渤海地区显著震群序列活动特征

为系统考察环渤海地区显著震群序列的活动特征,本文利用拟合效果较好的ETAS模型和充分考虑小震信息的OK1993模型对环渤海地区2012年以来的长岛、乳山、盖州、营海岫等显著震群序列参数进行拟合,分析震群的参数变化特征。研究结果表明:环渤海地区显著震群在时间上存在一定的差异,在空间上的差异并不显著,仅在震群发育过程中存在一定的迁徙现象;b值受震群活动影响较大,呈现多次起伏变化,在显著震群或较强地震发生前会出现不同程度的低b值现象,反应了显著地震(震群)发生前的应力累积和地震活动导致了地壳应力的调整;ETAS模型对环渤海震群序列显示了较好的拟合效果,震群的a值相对较低,级联触发程度较高,为a值作为震群判定提供了更多的震例积累;显著震群中的小震群序列活动存在一定的差异性,如长岛地区震群触发能力较强、乳山地区震群衰减相对较慢、营海岫地区震群所处应力水平较低、盖州地区震群所处应力水平较高等。上述研究对于震群序列活动特征研究以及未来震群或显著事件的预测具有重要的指示意义。

基于脆弱性视角的环渤海地区人海关系地域系统时空特征及演化分析

脆弱性已成为全球环境变化与可持续性科学研究的前沿领域,人海关系地域系统作为海洋地理学研究的重要内容,研究一定地域范围内人海地理空间的结构特征及演变规律。以环渤海地区为例,首先,对其海洋资源、海洋科技力量和人才资源及海洋基础设施等进行概述,分析海洋经济的发展过程;其次,以脆弱性为切入点,运用集对分析法分析环渤海地区人海关系地域系统脆弱性演进及影响因素;最后,运用三角图法对1996—2012年环渤海地区人海关系地域系统脆弱性进行类型分异,进而有针对性地提出降低脆弱性的对策。结果表明:(1)环渤海地区人海关系地域系统脆弱性指数发展变化不同,但均呈下降态势,稳定性显著增强;(2)环渤海地区人海关系地域系统脆弱性属于单一子系统脆弱型的次数较少,复合子系统脆弱型和均衡脆弱型是主要类型,出现次数较多;(3)可通过加强陆海统筹,优化海洋产业结构,加强海洋污染治理,推进海洋科学技术创新,加快人才培养和加强基础设施建设等措施实现降低人海关系地域系统脆弱性。

环渤海地区区域承载力研究

环渤海地区目前资源环境负荷已处于过载状态 ,成为制约今后全区经济社会发展的主要限制性因素。从实施可持续发展战略出发 ,采用定量方法研究该区的资源环境综合承载力 ,并对其今后变化的趋势进行了预测 。

城市土地集约利用度与城市化综合水平协调度分析——以环渤海地区为例

城市化对城市土地集约利用具有重要影响,有必要探究城市土地集约利用与城市化协调推进的时空演化规律.基于软件SPSS16.0与ArcGIS9.2,应用系统相对发展度原理分别测算分析1990年～2008年环渤海地区27市的城市土地集约利用度系数、城市化水平系数和城市土地集约利用相对城市化的协调度系数.根据时序演化系数判断,环渤海地区城市协调水平较低,但在不断优化,山东半岛圈尤为显著,协调度随着城市规模的扩大呈"S"型曲线演化趋势.Morans I分析表明,环渤海地区城市协调度总体上保持稳定的随机分布,没有强烈的极化效应;高值扩散区多集中于京津冀圈与辽东半岛圈等传统城市地带,而高值极化区与低值塌陷区则多位于山东半岛圈等新兴城市地带.随着城市规模不断扩大,城市化对土地集约利用的推动作用趋于弱化,但近20年推动作用仍占主导作用;在类似的区域发展背景下,城市土地集约利用相对城市化的协调状况呈现比较普遍的空间近邻效应.