The Effect of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Mixed Layer and Upper Ocean Temperature over the South China Sea

Intraseasonal oscillation of the mixed layer and upper ocean temperature has been found to occur over the South China Sea(SCS)in the summer monsoon season based on the multiple reanalysis and observational data in this study.The method of composite analysis and an upper ocean temperature equation assisted the analysis of physical mechanisms.The results show that the mixed layer depth(MLD)in the SCS has a significant oscillation with a 30-60 d period over the SCS region,which is closely related to boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO)activities.The MLD can increase(decrease)during the positive(negative)phase of the BSISO and usually lags behind by approximately one-eighth of the lifecycle(5 days)of the BSISO-related convection.The BSISO may cause periodic anomalies at the air-sea boundary,such as wind stress and heat flux,so it can play a dominant role in modulating the variation in MLD.There also are significant intraseasonal seawater temperature anomalies in both the surface and subsurface layers of the SCS.In addition,during the initial phase of the BSISO,the temperature anomaly signals of the thermocline are obviously opposite to the sea surface temperature(SST),especially in the southern SCS.According to the results from the analysis of the temperature equation,the vertical entrainment term caused by BSISO-related wind stress is stronger than the thermal forcing during the initial stage of convection,and it is more significant in the southern SCS.

Influence of three types of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on summer precipitation over the Yangtze River Valley

本文研究了三种来源于印度洋的北半球夏季季节内振荡(BSISO)对长江中下游地区降水的影响.结果表明,在所有BSISO类型中水汽辐合对降水异常的贡献最大.在经典型中,伴随着自副热带西太平洋向西北太平洋传播的正(负)对流异常的气旋(反气旋)使得降水在-2(-1至3)侯减少(增加).在向东扩展型中,由于在印度洋的正(负)对流异常激发的遥响应在西北太平洋引起反气旋(气旋),降水在-2至0(1至3)侯增加(减少).在向北偶极子型中,由于伴随着正(负)对流异常的气旋(反气旋)从中国南海移动到西北太平洋,降水在-2至0(1至3)侯减少(增加).

The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Simulated by Four Chinese AGCMs Participating in the CMIP5 Project

The performances of four Chinese AGCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） in the simulation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation （BSISO） are assessed. The authors focus on the major characteristics of BSISO： the intensity, significant period, and propagation. The results show that the four AGCMs can reproduce boreal summer intraseasonal signals of precipitation; however their limitations are also evident. Compared with the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation （CMAP） data, the models underestimate the strength of the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean （IO） during the boreal summer （May to October）, but overestimate the intraseasonal variability over the western Pacific （WP）. In the model results, the westward propagation dominates, whereas the eastward propagation dominates in the CMAP data. The northward propagation in these models is tilted southwest-northeast, which is also different from the CMAP result. Thus, there is not a northeast-southwest tilted rain belt revolution off the equator during the BSISO＇s eastward journey in the models. The biases of the BSISO are consistent with the summer mean state, especially the vertical shear. Analysis also shows that there is a positive feedback between the intraseasonal precipitation and the summer mean precipitation. The positive feedback processes may amplify the models＇ biases in the BSISO simulation.

Factors Limiting the Forecast Skill of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Model

In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model.Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)of the BSISO index,defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region,we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased.The ACC dropped to below 0.5for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation.To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days,we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation.The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO.We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity,moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection,which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields.The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations,such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears,but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.

Variations in Regional Mean Daily Precipitation Extremes and Related Circulation Anomalies over Central China During Boreal Summer

The variations of regional mean daily precipitation extreme （RMDPE） events in central China and associated circulation anomalies during June, July, and August （JJA） of 1961-2010 are investigated by using daily in-situ precipitation observations and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The precipitation data were collected at 239 state-level stations distributed throughout the provinces of Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. During 1961-2010, the 99th percentile threshold for RMDPE is 23.585 mm day-1. The number of RMDPE events varies on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, and increases significantly after the mid 1980s. The RMDPE events happen most frequently between late June and mid July, and are generally associated with anomalous baroclinic tropospheric circulations. The supply of moisture to the southern part of central China comes in a stepping way from the outer-region of an abnormal anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. Fluxes of wave activity generated over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau converge over central China, which favors the genesis and maintenance of wave disturbances over the region. RMDPE events typically occur in tandem with a strong heating gradient formed by net heating in central China and the large-scale net cooling in the surrounding area. The occurrence of RMDPE events over central China is tied to anomalous local cyclonic circulations, topographic forcing over the northeast Tibetan Plateau, and anomalous gradients of diabatic heating between central China and the surrounding areas.

Influence of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Extreme Temperature Events in the Northern Hemisphere

The impact of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation （BSISO） on extreme hot and cool events was investig-ated, by analyzing the observed and reanalysis data for the period from 1983 to 2012. It is found that the frequency of the extreme events in middle and high latitudes is significantly modulated by the BSISO convection in the tropics, with a 3-9-day lag. During phases 1 and 2 when the BSISO positive rainfall anomaly is primarily located over a northwest-southeast oriented belt extending from India to Maritime Continent and a negative rainfall anomaly ap- pears in western North Pacific, the frequency of extreme hot events is 40% more than the frequency of non-extreme hot events. Most noticeable increase appears in midlatitude North Pacific （north of 40°N） and higher-latitude polar region. Two physical mechanisms are primarily responsible for the change of the extreme frequency. First, an upper-tropo-spheric Rossby wave train （due to the wave energy propagation） is generated in response to a negative heating anom-aly over tropical western North Pacific in phases 1 and 2. This wave train consists of a strong high pressure anomaly center northeast of Japan, a weak low pressure anomaly center over Alaska, and a strong high pressure anomaly cen-ter over the western coast of United States. Easterly anomalies to the south of the two strong midlatitude high pres-sure centers weaken the climatological subtropical jet along 40°N, which is accompanied by anomalous subsidence and warming in North Pacific north of 40°N. Second, an enhanced monsoonal heating over South Asia and East Asia sets up a transverse monsoonal overturning circulation, with large-scale ascending （descending） anomalies over trop-ical Indian （Pacific） Ocean. Both the processes favor more frequent extreme hot events in higher-latitude Northern Hemisphere. An anomalous atmospheric general circulation model is used to confirm the tropical heating effect.

Long-term trend of water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau in boreal summer under global warming

In this study,the long-term trend of water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)in boreal summer is investigated by using observation and reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019.The historical experiment simulations of 19 models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)are evaluated,and the future variation tendency under four emission scenarios is projected.The results indicate that the water vapor content and the net water vapor budget over the TP show notable increasing trends,which are mainly manifested by a significant increase in the net water vapor import and a significant decrease in the water vapor export on the eastern boundary of the TP.This is mainly due to an anomalous anticyclone from Lake Baikal to the Mongolian Plateau.The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble can well simulate the variation characteristics of the TP net water vapor budget.The projection results indicate that by the end of the twenty-first century,the water vapor content,the net water vapor import and precipitation over the TP will increase.Under a high-emissions scenario and compared with the current period(1991–2014),these three variables will increase by 47.99%,59.77%and 18.59%in the long term(2081–2100),respectively.The significant enhancement of meridional water vapor transport over the northern TP may be the main reason for the increase in humidity over the TP.

The zonal propagating characteristics of low-frequency oscillation over the Eurasian mid-high latitude in boreal summer

Using 32-yr National Centers for Environment Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data,we investigated zonal propagation and circulation characteristics of the low-frequency circulation for the prevailing period over Eurasian mid-high latitude in boreal summer(May-August) in terms of empirical orthogonal function(EOF),linear regression,and phase analysis and so on.We found that the dominant periods of the low-frequency circulation are 10-30 days and it clearly shows meridional(southward) and zonal(westward) propagation features at the middle troposphere(500 hPa).The average zonal speed of the 10-30 days low-frequency oscillation(LFO) is about 9-10 longitudes per day.Further analysis shows that the southernmost part of the polar vortex in the northern hemisphere exhibits westward clockwise rotation in the eastern hemisphere in boreal summer.Also,the southernmost tips of 5400 and 5500 gpm contours,which indicate the site of the major trough in the eastern hemisphere,obviously move westwards.The southernmost tip of 5500 gpm contour line propagates westwards at the speed of about 9-10 longitudes per day,which is consistent with the mean zonal speed of the westward propagation of the low-frequency circulation.Moreover,the 10-30-day LFO-related cold air also shows west propagation feature with respect to LFO phases.The westward propagation of the LFO is the low-frequency-scale embodiment of the clockwise rotation of polar vortex.The cold air activities closely related to polar vortex or to ridge-trough system activities is the essential circulation of 10-30 days LFO circulation over the Eurasian mid-high latitude in boreal summer.

Interhemispheric atmospheric mass oscillation and its relation to interannual variations of the Asian monsoon in boreal summer

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and precipitation records of Chinese stations, we have investigated the relationship of interhemispheric oscillation of air mass (IHO) with global lower-level circulation and monsoon anomalies in boreal summer. Our results show that the summer IHO explains a greater portion of variance in the abnormal distribution of atmospheric mass over 30°S-60°N as well as the Antarctic. The IHO strongly correlates to the variations of sea level pressure (SLP) in these regions. It is shown that IHO has some influences on both atmospheric mass transports and water vapor fluxes over 30°S-60°N in association with three anomalous cyclonic circulations over land areas of the eastern hemisphere, which is in close relation to the changes in summer monsoon intensity in eastern Asia and western Africa. Composites of summer rainfall anomalies in China for high and low IHO-index years indicate that the eastern Asian summer monsoon is more intense, with positive precipitation anomaly centers in northern and northeastern parts of China, as opposed to the negative center over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in stronger IHO years. In weak IHO years, a feeble summer monsoon appears in eastern Asia, leading to positive center of precipitation anomalies displaced into the MLRYR. Furthermore, a teleconnection in wind fields between the western African and eastern Asian monsoon regions was observed in the middle and higher troposphere in the scenario of IHO. The anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulations along the path of this Africa-East Asia teleconnection were found to be just over the diabatic heating (cooling) centers, suggesting that diabatic forcings are responsible for the formation of this Africa-East Asia teleconnection.

Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Asian–Pacific Monsoon Region Simulated in CAMS-CSM

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO) is simulated by the Climate System Model(CSM) developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS), China Meteorological Administration. Firstly, the results indicate that this new model is able to reasonably simulate the annual cycle and seasonal mean of the precipitation, as well as the vertical shear of large-scale zonal wind in the tropics. The model also reproduces the eastward and northward propagating oscillation signals similar to those found in observations. The simulation of BSISO is generally in agreement with the observations in terms of variance center, periodicity, and propagation, with the exception that the magnitude of BSISO anomalous convections are underestimated during both its eastward propagation along the equator and its northward propagation over the Asian–Pacific summer monsoon region. Our preliminary evaluation of the simulated BSISO by CAMS-CSM suggests that this new model has the capability, to a certain extent, to capture the BSISO features, including its propagation zonally along the equator and meridionally over the Asian monsoon region.

海洋性大陆地形对夏季季节内振荡的影响:基于2020年9月个例的数值模拟分析

海洋性大陆(Maritime Continent,MC)是夏季大气季节内振荡(the Boreal Summer IntraSeasonal Oscillation,BSISO)传播的必经途径,而MC对于BSISO结构和传播产生的重要的影响机制很不清楚.针对此问题,利用高精度数值模式对一次BSISO事件展开数值模拟试验研究.选取2020年8-9月的一次BSISO事件,利用高精度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)对本次BSISO过程进行了近一个月的数值模拟.发现WRF控制试验合理模拟出与再分析资料中相近的北传低层风场以及明显具有BSISO特征的西北-东南倾斜的雨带,并合理地捕捉了本次BSISO事件的传播特征和平均状态.为了研究MC地形对本次事件传播和强度的影响,在WRF模式中去除了MC地区的地形,开展了敏感性试验.在去除地形的敏感性试验中,BSISO低空风加强,传播更加平滑,整体降水幅度增加,而在岛屿上水汽大幅增加,降水量减少.在地形高度为零的情况下,纬向平流大大增强,从而增强了海上对流,促进了BSISO的加强和传播.此数值模拟试验研究揭示了MC地形对BSISO降水结构、传播和幅度的影响.

Mechanism of Regional Subseasonal Precipitation in the Strongest and Weakest East Asian Summer Monsoon Subseasonal Variation Years

Using the National Center for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis coupled dataset during 1979–2010,we selected four subseasonal indexes from the 16 East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)indexes to characterize the subseasonal variability of the entire EASM system.The strongest(1996)and weakest(1998)years of the subseasonal variation were revealed based on these subseasonal EASM indexes.Furthermore,three rainfall concentration areas were defined in East Asia,and these areas were dissected by the atmospheric midlatitude jet stream axis and the position of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High(WNPSH).Then,the subseasonal effects of the WNPSH,the South Asian High(SAH),the Mongolian Cyclone(MC),and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation(BSISO)on each rainfall concentration area were studied in the strongest and weakest subseasonal variation years of the EASM.During the summer of 1998,the WNPSH and the SAH were stable in the more southern region,which not only blocked the northward progression of the BSISO but also caused the MC to advance southward.Therefore,the summer of 1998 was the weakest subseasonal variability of the EASM,but with significant subseasonal precipitation episodes in the northern and central rainfall areas.However,in 1996,the BSISO repeatedly spread northward in the south rainfall area because of the weak intensities and northern positions of the WNPSH and the SAH,which caused significant subseasonal precipitation episodes.In addition,MC was blocked to the north of approximately 42°N with a weak subseasonal rainfall.

Pre-summer Persistent Heavy Rain over Southern China and Its Relationship with Intra-seasonal Oscillation of Tropical Atmosphere

Based on daily precipitation data supplied by the Chinese meteorological administration,hourly reanalysis datasets provided by the ECMWF and daily outgoing long wave radiation supplied by the NOAA,the evolution regularity of continuous heavy precipitation over Southern China(SC)from April to June in 1979-2020 was systematically analyzed.The interaction between specific humidity and circulation field at the background-scale,the intra-seasonal-scale and the synoptic-scale,and its influence on persistent heavy precipitation over the SC during the April-June rainy season were quantitatively diagnosed and analyzed.The results are as follows.Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the SC during the April-June rainy season occur frequently from mid-May to mid-and late-June,exhibiting significant intra-seasonal oscillation(10-30-day)features.Vertically integrated moisture flux convergence(VIMFC)can well represent the variation of the PHREs.A multiscale quantitative diagnosis of the VIMFC shows that the pre-summer PHREs over the SC are mainly affected by the background water vapor(greater than 30 days),intraseasonal circulation disturbance(10-30-day)and background circulation(greater than 30 days),and water vapor convergences are the main factor.The SC is under the control of a warm and humid background and a strong intraseasonal cyclonic circulation,with strong convergence and ascending movements and abundant water vapor conditions during the period of the PHREs.Meanwhile,the westward inter-seasonal oscillation of tropical atmosphere keeps the precipitation system over the SC for several consecutive days,eventually leading to the occurrence,development and persistence of heavy precipitation.

Intraseasonal Oscillation of Tropospheric Ozone over the Indian Summer Monsoon Region

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO) of lower tropospheric ozone is observed in the Indian summer monsoon(ISM) region on the basis of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and ozonesonde data from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre. The 30–60-day intraseasonal variation of lower-tropospheric ozone shows a northwest–southeast pattern with northeastward propagation in the ISM region. The most significant ozone variations are observed in the Maritime Continent and western North Pacific. In the tropics, ozone anomalies extend from the surface to 300 hPa; however, in extratropical areas, it is mainly observed under 500 hPa. Precipitation caused by BSISO plays a dominant role in modulating the BSISO of lower-tropospheric ozone in the tropics, causing negative/positive ozone anomalies in phases 1–3/5–6. As the BSISO propagates northeastward to the western North Pacific, horizontal transport becomes relatively more important, increasing/reducing tropospheric ozone via anticyclonic/cyclonic anomalies over the western North Pacific in phases 3–4/7–8.As two extreme conditions of the ISM, most of its active/break events occur in BSISO phases 4–7/1–8 when suppressed/enhanced convection appears over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and enhanced/suppressed convection appears over India, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea. As a result, the BSISO of tropospheric ozone shows significant positive/negative anomalies over the Maritime Continent, as well as negative/positive anomalies over India, the Bay of Bengal,and the South China Sea in active/break spells of the ISM. This BSISO of tropospheric ozone is more remarkable in break spells than in active spells of the ISM, due to the stronger amplitude of BSISO in the former.

长江中下游典型涝年准双周振荡特征及其影响分析

针对长江下游典型涝年(1999、2016和2020年),通过全域功率谱分析和Lanczos滤波方法提取准双周振荡(QBWO)分量;并采用再分析资料进行同位相合成,揭示不同典型涝年共性特征及其各自的关键影响因子。结果表明:(1)1999、2016和2020年是长江下游地区最为典型的涝年,存在10—20 d显著的准双周振荡周期,且6—7月更为明显。(2)中、高纬度地区高层低频环流呈现扰动波列分布,有利于“两脊一槽”大尺度背景的维持和下游扰动增强,引起长江下游地区低频垂直运动变化,进而造成降水异常。低纬度地区准双周振荡是长江下游低频变化的另一来源,低层低频涡旋以10°N为轴对称分布,低频辐散风由中国南海指向长江下游地区,热带对流活动低频变化可通过低频大气环流影响长江下游降水。高、低纬度低频大气环流配合热源强迫存在相向运动,叠加低频水汽强烈辐合,为长江下游地区降水偏多提供有利条件。(3)3个长江下游典型涝年降水分布特征及其关键影响因子存在不同。1999年,西北太平洋上低频反气旋环流偏强、偏西,辐散风由中国南海指向长江下游地区,低频水汽来源为孟加拉湾和中国南海地区。2016年,对流层低层南、北低频环流系统耦合带呈现东北—西南走向,低纬度地区对流活动旺盛,向北传播的大气热源加热作用更强。2020年,中、高纬度地区垂直环流更完整,西北太平洋的东南水汽输送成为主要水汽来源。研究结果对认识长江下游地区夏季降水异常有重要意义。

1979—2019年云贵高原夏季区域性极端日降水事件的异常环流特征

利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心整编的站点观测资料和NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,对云贵高原1979—2019年夏季区域性极端日降水事件的异常环流进行了分析。云贵高原99%分位上的夏季(6—8月)极端日降水事件(以下简称降水事件)降水阈值为20.0 mm/d,在近41年里共发生了35次降水事件,其中7月上旬发生次数最多,7月下旬次之,8月中旬最少;35次降水事件中有4次为热带气旋系统影响,降水中心位于广西西南部及沿海地区,中心值超过75 mm,其余31次的降水中心主要集中在贵州中南部和广西北部,且降水中心强度明显低于热带气旋系统所带来的强度;受欧亚大陆中纬度(30~50°N)地区的纬向扰动波列和低纬地区异常垂直环流圈控制,云贵高原上空对流层中建立了深厚的异常上升运动,配合500 hPa副热带地区的异常反气旋式环流将南海和孟加拉湾的水汽输送至云贵高原并在当地沿地形辐合抬升,为云贵高原极端降水的形成提供有利的动力条件和水汽条件,同时周边地区异常冷却所带来的加热场梯度还进一步加强了云贵高原上空的气流入流,更加有利于强降水的产生和维持。此外,降水事件还与乌拉尔山至我国东北地区的低值系统活动和源自北大西洋及热带低纬地区的波扰能量传播有关。

近50a华东地区夏季极端降水事件的年代际变化

利用中国华东地区90站点1960—2009年夏季(6—8月)逐日降水资料,分析了近50a来华东地区各类极端降水事件的强度和发生频次的年代际变化。结果表明:华东地区极端降水事件年代际变化特征明显。近20a来,不论是极端降水事件的平均强度还是发生次数都要明显高于前30a;1990年代是极端事件多发且强度较强的年代;华东区域极端强降水过程事件的连续降水日数多在9d以下,而极端连续降水日数事件基本在9d以上;较之华东地区其他区域,福建地区存在更多的强度大、持续久的降水过程;华东地区最大极端降水量出现在江西北部与安徽南部的交界区域。极端降水事件频发带存在南北摆动的年代际变化,这一特征在极端日降水事件和极端强降水过程事件上表现得更为明显。同时,存在两个极端事件频发带,分别位于长江流域附近。在后3个年代,这两个频发带呈现出分—合—分的年代际变化特征。

西北地区东部夏季不同等级降水的空间分布特征及其在旱涝年分布的差异

根据我国西北地区东部59个气象台站近50 a(1965-2014年)的逐日降水资料,将降水划分为小雨、中雨和大雨3个等级,分析了该地区夏季不同等级降水的降水量、降水日数和降水强度的空间分布特征,并讨论了不同等级降水量及降水日数与夏季总降水量的关系及其在典型旱涝年的空间分布差异。结果表明:(1)西北地区东部夏季降水日以小雨为主,约占总降水日数的81%;但在夏季总降水量中,小雨、中雨和大雨降水量相当,各约占1/3。(2)该地区夏季不同等级降水量、降水日数和降水强度的空间分布不均,但均大致呈现出由南向北递减的空间分布特征。(3)该地区夏季总降水量与中雨日和大雨日的相关关系显著,表明中雨以上量级降水日数的变化可基本反映夏季降水量的变化。(4)西北地区东部典型涝(旱)年,降水量的偏多(少)主要是由于中雨以上等级降水日数偏多(少)引起的中雨量和大雨量偏多(少)所致。

江淮流域夏季降水异常与西北太平洋副热带30～60天振荡强度年际变化的联系

利用1978～2007年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和地面观测站降水资料,研究了夏季江淮流域降水多寡与30～60天振荡(ISO)强度年际变化的联系。结果表明:江淮流域夏季降水异常与台湾海峡地区及西北太平洋低频能量变化相关显著。定义了ISO强度指数,对ISO强度指数高低年夏季低频降水以及低频环流的位相合成表明:高指数年主要通过存在于南海—西北太平洋地区的低频气旋、反气旋系统的交替活动来影响副热带高压的进退,从而引起江淮流域夏季降水异常;低指数年江淮流域夏季降水主要受西太平洋副热带高压位置及强度变化的影响,降水异常区主要位于江南地区。进一步研究表明,非30～60天低频降水扰动与低频振荡强度也有很好的相关。低频环流对双周以及天气时间尺度环流变化可能存在调制作用,这种作用对江淮流域夏季降水的年际异常起到非常重要的作用。

长江流域夏季气温变化型及其成因Ⅱ：年代际变化

采用中国气象局整编的气温资料、ERA再分折资料、哈得来中心月平均海温资料,分析了长江流域夏季气温的变化型在年代际时间尺度上的形成机理。结果表明:长江中下游地区夏季气温呈现出全区一致、南北反相以及东西反相3种分布型;年代际尺度变化与年际尺度变化共有相同的空间型;特别有趣的是,长江流域夏季气温变化的第3模(EOF3)的时间系数与全球增暖趋势一致,其空问分布表现为长江下游越来越暖,而长江中上游越来越冷。在年代际尺度上,3种异常型分别对应不同特点的环流型,其中第2模对应的高度场在长江中下游地区上空是准正压结构;第1模的年代际变化与沿西风急流传播的波列状结构以及源自北大西洋的波列有关。第2模与沿西风急流传播的波列状结构以及自热带西太平洋出发的欧亚型(EAP)遥相关波列相联系,反映出中纬度和低纬度对长江中下游地区的共同作用。而第3模则与北极涛动存在一定联系,体现出中-高纬度的相互作用;长江中下游地区夏季气温异常分布与海温尤其是太平洋和印度洋海温存在联系,其中太平洋年代振荡对南北反相型气温分布起到一定作用,而西北太平洋在全球变暖背景下的异常冷海温对东西反相型气温分布产生影响。同时,印度洋海温异常亦与前两个模态的气温分布型存在联系。