Identifying Unusual Observations in Ridge Regression Linear Model Using Box-Cox Power Transformation Technique

The use of [1] Box-Cox power transformation in regression analysis is now common;in the last two decades there has been emphasis on diagnostics methods for Box-Cox power transformation, much of which has involved deletion of influential data cases. The pioneer work of [2] studied local influence on constant variance perturbation in the Box-Cox unbiased regression linear mode. Tsai and Wu [3] analyzed local influence method of [2] to assess the effect of the case-weights perturbation on the transformation-power estimator in the Box-Cox unbiased regression linear model. Many authors noted that the influential observations on the biased estimators are different from the unbiased estimators. In this paper I describe a diagnostic method for assessing the local influence on the constant variance perturbation on the transformation in the Box-Cox biased ridge regression linear model. Two real macroeconomic data sets are used to illustrate the methodologies.

A Neuro-Based Software Fault Prediction with Box-Cox Power Transformation

Software fault prediction is one of the most fundamental but significant management techniques in software dependability assessment. In this paper we concern the software fault prediction using a multilayer-perceptron neural network, where the underlying software fault count data are transformed to the Gaussian data, by means of the well-known Box-Cox power transformation. More specially, we investigate the long-term behavior of software fault counts by the neural network, and perform the multi-stage look ahead prediction of the cumulative number of software faults detected in the future software testing. In numerical examples with two actual software fault data sets, we compare our neural network approach with the existing software reliability growth models based on nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in terms of predictive performance with average relative error, and show that the data transformation employed in this paper leads to an improvement in prediction accuracy.

Price prediction of power transformer materials based on CEEMD and GRU

The rapid growth of the Chinese economy has fueled the expansion of power grids.Power transformers are key equipment in power grid projects,and their price changes have a significant impact on cost control.However,the prices of power transformer materials manifest as nonsmooth and nonlinear sequences.Hence,estimating the acquisition costs of power grid projects is difficult,hindering the normal operation of power engineering construction.To more accurately predict the price of power transformer materials,this study proposes a method based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition(CEEMD)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)network.First,the CEEMD decomposed the price series into multiple intrinsic mode functions(IMFs).Multiple IMFs were clustered to obtain several aggregated sequences based on the sample entropy of each IMF.Then,an empirical wavelet transform(EWT)was applied to the aggregation sequence with a large sample entropy,and the multiple subsequences obtained from the decomposition were predicted by the GRU model.The GRU model was used to directly predict the aggregation sequences with a small sample entropy.In this study,we used authentic historical pricing data for power transformer materials to validate the proposed approach.The empirical findings demonstrated the efficacy of our method across both datasets,with mean absolute percentage errors(MAPEs)of less than 1%and 3%.This approach holds a significant reference value for future research in the field of power transformer material price prediction.

Research on the longitudinal protection of a through-type cophase traction direct power supply system based on the empirical wavelet transform

This paper proposes a longitudinal protection scheme utilizing empirical wavelet transform(EWT)for a through-type cophase traction direct power supply system,where both sides of a traction network line exhibit a distinctive boundary structure.This approach capitalizes on the boundary’s capacity to attenuate the high-frequency component of fault signals,resulting in a variation in the high-frequency transient energy ratio when faults occur inside or outside the line.During internal line faults,the high-frequency transient energy at the checkpoints located at both ends surpasses that of its neighboring lines.Conversely,for faults external to the line,the energy is lower compared to adjacent lines.EWT is employed to decompose the collected fault current signals,allowing access to the high-frequency transient energy.The longitudinal protection for the traction network line is established based on disparities between both ends of the traction network line and the high-frequency transient energy on either side of the boundary.Moreover,simulation verification through experimental results demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed protection scheme across various initial fault angles,distances to faults,and fault transition resistances.

考虑特征重组与改进Transformer的风电功率短期日前预测方法

短期日前风电功率预测对电力系统调度计划制定有重要意义,该文为提高风电功率预测的准确性,提出了一种基于Transformer的预测模型Powerformer。模型通过因果注意力机制挖掘序列的时序依赖;通过去平稳化模块优化因果注意力以提高数据本身的可预测性;通过设计趋势增强和周期增强模块提高模型的预测能力;通过改进解码器的多头注意力层,使模型提取周期特征和趋势特征。该文首先对风电数据进行预处理,采用完全自适应噪声集合经验模态分解(complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise,CEEMDAN)将风电数据序列分解为不同频率的本征模态函数并计算其样本熵,使得风电功率序列重组为周期序列和趋势序列,然后将序列输入到Powerformer模型,实现对风电功率短期日前准确预测。结果表明,虽然训练时间长于已有预测模型,但Poweformer模型预测精度得到提升;同时,消融实验结果验证了模型各模块的必要性和有效性,具有一定的应用价值。

基于生成对抗Transformer的电力负荷数据异常检测

电力负荷异常数据将给电力系统规划、负荷预测以及用能分析等带来较大的负面影响,因此亟须对负荷数据异常进行检测与识别。首先,针对电力负荷数据异常分类、原因及其特征开展分析。其次,改进传统Transformer编码器结构,采用多头注意力层代替掩码多头注意力层,同时移除前馈网络,以提高模型对负荷时序序列的全局注意力。基于生成对抗网络(generative adversarial networks,GAN)生成器与判别器的博弈结构,提出一种改进的GAN-Transformer模型,以更好地捕捉趋势性特征并加速模型收敛。然后,引入多阶段映射与训练方法,综合焦点分数打分机制,通过分阶段负荷序列重构帮助模型更好地提取负荷数据异常特征。最后,算例分析结果表明,GAN-Transformer模型在负荷数据异常检测精确率、召回率、F_(1)值以及训练时间方面均具有更优的性能,验证了所提方法的有效性和优越性。文中研究工作为基于深度学习进一步实现电力负荷数据异常分类与数据修复提供了有益参考。

基于卷积神经网络与Transformer的电能质量扰动分类方法

复杂电能质量扰动(power quality disturbances, PQD)的智能分类对于智能电网发展具有重要意义。扰动特征的提取与定位、模式识别与分类是电能质量扰动分类方法研究的难点。采用深度学习算法,将具有关注全局信息的Transformer与善于提取局部特征的卷积神经网络相融合,提出一种基于卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network, CNN)与Transformer的电能质量扰动分类方法,即CTranCBA。这种双深度学习模型分类方法主要是通过一维卷积神经网络提取电能质量扰动信号特征,利用Transformer自注意力机制引导模型关注序列中不同位置间的依赖关系,实现对扰动信号局部特征与全局特征的互补,克服了因感受野的限制而带来的识别不清、分类不准等问题。使用23种不同电能质量扰动信号,将CTranCBA与Deep-CNN、CNN-LSTM、CNN-CBAM方法进行比较。结果表明:该方法在分类准确率和抗噪性方面表现优异,可为电能质量扰动智能分类提供一种新的方法。

Power Transformer Fault Diagnosis Using Random Forest and Optimized Kernel Extreme Learning Machine

Power transformer is one of the most crucial devices in power grid.It is significant to determine incipient faults of power transformers fast and accurately.Input features play critical roles in fault diagnosis accuracy.In order to further improve the fault diagnosis performance of power trans-formers,a random forest feature selection method coupled with optimized kernel extreme learning machine is presented in this study.Firstly,the random forest feature selection approach is adopted to rank 42 related input features derived from gas concentration,gas ratio and energy-weighted dissolved gas analysis.Afterwards,a kernel extreme learning machine tuned by the Aquila optimization algorithm is implemented to adjust crucial parameters and select the optimal feature subsets.The diagnosis accuracy is used to assess the fault diagnosis capability of concerned feature subsets.Finally,the optimal feature subsets are applied to establish fault diagnosis model.According to the experimental results based on two public datasets and comparison with 5 conventional approaches,it can be seen that the average accuracy of the pro-posed method is up to 94.5%,which is superior to that of other conventional approaches.Fault diagnosis performances verify that the optimum feature subset obtained by the presented method can dramatically improve power transformers fault diagnosis accuracy.

基于非平稳Transformer的超短期风电功率多步预测

针对风电预测中波动性和随机性造成的风电功率多步预测精确度不高的问题,提出一种基于非平稳Transformer的超短期风电功率多步预测模型。利用皮尔逊相关系数法(PCC)和主成分分析法(PCA)对风电功率及其影响因素的分析确定输入数据,结合可以提升非平稳时序预测效果的非平稳Transformer模型,高效充分地挖掘输入数据与输出功率的复杂关系,构建风电功率超短期预测模型。实例分析表明,所提方法对不同预测步长下的风电功率进行预测时均具有较高的预测精度,且预测结果更稳定。

Stability of GM(1,1) power model on vector transformation

The morbidity problem of the GM（1,1） power model in parameter identification is discussed by using multiple and rotation transformation of vectors. Firstly we consider the morbidity problem of the special matrix and prove that the condition number of the coefficient matrix is determined by the ratio of lengths and the included angle of the column vector, which could be adjusted by multiple and rotation transformation to turn the matrix to a well-conditioned one. Then partition the corresponding matrix of the GM（1,1） power model in accordance with the column vector and regulate the matrix to a well-conditioned one by multiple and rotation transformation of vectors, which completely solve the instability problem of the GM（1,1） power model. Numerical results show that vector transformation is a new method in studying the stability problem of the GM（1,1） power model.

Fault Diagnosis of Power Transformer Based on Improved ACGAN Under Imbalanced Data

The imbalance of dissolved gas analysis(DGA)data will lead to over-fitting,weak generalization and poor recognition performance for fault diagnosis models based on deep learning.To handle this problem,a novel transformer fault diagnosis method based on improved auxiliary classifier generative adversarial network(ACGAN)under imbalanced data is proposed in this paper,which meets both the requirements of balancing DGA data and supplying accurate diagnosis results.The generator combines one-dimensional convolutional neural networks(1D-CNN)and long short-term memories(LSTM),which can deeply extract the features from DGA samples and be greatly beneficial to ACGAN’s data balancing and fault diagnosis.The discriminator adopts multilayer perceptron networks(MLP),which prevents the discriminator from losing important features of DGA data when the network is too complex and the number of layers is too large.The experimental results suggest that the presented approach can effectively improve the adverse effects of DGA data imbalance on the deep learning models,enhance fault diagnosis performance and supply desirable diagnosis accuracy up to 99.46%.Furthermore,the comparison results indicate the fault diagnosis performance of the proposed approach is superior to that of other conventional methods.Therefore,the method presented in this study has excellent and reliable fault diagnosis performance for various unbalanced datasets.In addition,the proposed approach can also solve the problems of insufficient and imbalanced fault data in other practical application fields.

ViTH:面向医学图像检索的视觉Transformer哈希改进算法

对海量的医学图像进行有效检索会给医学诊断和治疗带来极其重要的意义.哈希方法是图像检索领域中的一种主流方法,但在医学图像领域的应用相对较少.针对此,提出一种面向医学图像检索的视觉Transformer哈希改进算法.首先使用视觉Transformer模型作为基础的特征提取模块,其次在Transformer编码器的前、后端分别加入幂均值变换(Power-Mean Transformation,PMT),进一步增强模型的非线性性能,接着在Transformer编码器内部的多头注意力(Multi-Head Attention,MHA)层引入空间金字塔池化(Spatial Pyramid Pooling,SPP)形成多头空间金字塔池化注意力(Multi-Head Spatial Pyramid Pooling Attention,MHSPA)模块,该模块不仅可以提取全局的上下文特征,而且可以提取多尺度的局部上下文特征,并将不同尺度的特征进行融合.最后在输出幂均值变换层之后将提取到的特征分别通过两个多层感知机(Multi-Layer Perceptrons,MLPs),上分支的MLP用来预测图像的类别,下分支的MLP用来学习图像的哈希码.在损失函数部分,充分考虑了成对损失、量化损失、平衡损失以及分类损失来优化整个模型.在医学图像数据集ChestX-ray14和ISIC 2018上的实验结果表明,该研究所提出的算法相比于经典的哈希算法具有更好的检索效果.

Research Progress of On-line Monitoring Technology for Electromagnetic Environment of Power Transmission and Transformation Projects

Based on the collection of relevant literature and cases,the research and application status of on-line monitoring technology for electromagnetic environment of power transmission and transformation projects at home and abroad were introduced.Moreover,the problems existing in the on-line monitoring of electromagnetic environment were expounded,and the development prospect was forecasted.

An Econometric Analysis of Hospital Length of Stay for Cataract Operations in Japan by the Box-Cox Transformation Model and Hausman Tests: Evaluation of the 2010 Revision of the Medical Payment System

The Japanese medical costs for cataract treatments reached 270 billion yen in fiscal year 2012. Since the length of stay (LOS) in hospital is much longer than other major countries, controlling the medical costs by reducing LOS becomes an important issue in Japan. In this paper, we evaluated the effects of the 2010 revision of the Japanese medical payment system (DPC/PDPS) on LOS for cataract operations. The Box-Cox transformation model, Nawata’s estimators and Hausman tests were used in the analysis. To evaluate the effects, we analyzed a dataset obtained from 34 DPC hospitals (Hp1-34) where one-eye cataract operations were performed both before (April 2008-March 2010) and after (April 2010-March 2012) the 2010 revision and there were more than 500 patients. The dataset contained information from 32,593 patients. We did not admit the effect of the 2010 revision in this study, and there were large differences LOS among hospitals, even after removing the influences of factors such as patient characteristics and types of principal diseases.

Asymptotic Efficiency of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator for the Box-Cox Transformation Model with Heteroscedastic Disturbances

This paper considers the asymptotic efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the Box-Cox transformation model with heteroscedastic disturbances. The MLE under the normality assumption (BC MLE) is a consistent and asymptotically efficient estimator if the “small ” condition is satisfied and the number of parameters is finite. However, the BC MLE cannot be asymptotically efficient and its rate of convergence is slower than ordinal order when the number of parameters goes to infinity. Anew consistent estimator of order is proposed. One important implication of this study is that estimation methods should be carefully chosen when the model contains many parameters in actual empirical studies.

基于强化学习和Transformer的输电线路缺陷智能检测方法研究

为了解决传统输电线路缺陷检测方法的不足,该文提出了一种基于强化学习和Transformer的输电线路缺陷智能识别方法。首先,采用具有较大感受野的空洞卷积网络(deterministic networking, DetNet)对输电线路巡检缺陷图像进行特征提取,继而使用深度Q网络(deepQ-network,DQN)筛选出包含前景信息的重要区域。其次,基于双线性注意力机制对背景区域特征向量进行投影压缩,使得融合特征向量聚焦于目标区域。最后,针对不确定缺陷检测结果定义可信度评测指标,构建Transformer网络编码层级的自适应调整机制,建立具有不同编码层级的Transformer模型库,以获取多模态缺陷的多层次差异化特征,采用Soft-NMS获取集成检测结果,提升识别模型的鲁棒性。通过对输电线路缺陷航拍图像进行了实验研究,该文方法检测精度平均值为89.7%,与其他算法相比具有更优的检测精度和泛化能力。

基于多尺度时间序列块自编码Transformer神经网络模型的风电超短期功率预测

风电超短期功率预测过程中对时间依赖性的有效捕捉与建模,将直接影响风电功率时间序列预测模型的稳定性和泛化性。为此,提出一种新型时序Transformer风电功率预测模型。模型架构在逻辑上分为时间块自编码、隐空间Transformer自注意力时序自回归、随机方差缩减梯度(stochastic variance reduce gradient,SVRG)优化3个部分。首先,依稀疏约束及低秩近似规则,风电功率时空数据被半监督映射至隐空间;其次,隐空间编码经由多头自注意力网络完成时序自回归预测;最后,模型采用方差缩减SVRG优化算法降低噪声,达到更高预测效能。实验结果表明,所提新型Transformer架构能稳定有效进行超短期风电功率预测,预测结果在准确性、泛化性方面相较于传统机器学习模型都有明显提升。

Extracting Power Transformer Vibration Features by a Time-Scale-Frequency Analysis Method

In order to take advantage of the merits of WPT and HHT in feature extraction from vibration signals of power transformer, a time-scale-frequency analysis method is developed based on the combination of these two techniques. This method consists of two steps. First, the desirable wavelet packet nodes corresponding to characteristic frequency bands of power transformer are selected through a Correlation Degree Threshold Screening (CDTS) technique for reconstructing a time-domain signal that contains useful information of power transformer. Second, the HHT is then conducted on the reconstructed signal to track the instantaneous frequencies corresponding to natural characteristics of power transformer. Experimental results are provided by analyzing a real power transformer vibration signal. Compared with the features extracted by directly using HHT, the features obtained by the proposed method reveal clearer condition pattern of the transformer, which shows the potential of this method in condition monitoring of power transformer.

Detection of Mechanical Deformation in Old Aged Power Transformer Using Cross Correlation Co-Efficient Analysis Method

Detection of minor faults in power transformer active part is essential because minor faults may develop and lead to major faults and finally irretrievable damages occur. Sweep Frequency Response Analysis (SFRA) is an effective low-voltage, off-line diagnostic tool used for finding out any possible winding displacement or mechanical deterioration inside the Transformer, due to large electromechanical forces occurring from the fault currents or due to Transformer transportation and relocation. In this method, the frequency response of a transformer is taken both at manufacturing industry and concern site. Then both the response is compared to predict the fault taken place in active part. But in old aged transformers, the primary reference response is unavailable. So Cross Correlation Co-Efficient (CCF) measurement technique can be a vital process for fault detection in these transformers. In this paper, theoretical background of SFRA technique has been elaborated and through several case studies, the effectiveness of CCF parameter for fault detection has been represented.

Power Transformer No-Load Loss Prediction with FEM Modeling and Building Factor Optimization

Estimation of power transformer no-load loss is a critical issue in the design of distribution transformers. Any deviation in estimation of the core losses during the design stage can lead to a financial penalty for the transformer manufacturer. In this paper an effective and novel method is proposed to determine all components of the iron core losses applying a combination of the empirical and numerical techniques. In this method at the first stage all computable components of the core losses are calculated, using Finite Element Method (FEM) modeling and analysis of the transformer iron core. This method takes into account magnetic sheets anisotropy, joint losses and stacking holes. Next, a Quadratic Programming (QP) optimization technique is employed to estimate the incomputable components of the core losses. This method provides a chance for improvement of the core loss estimation over the time when more measured data become available. The optimization process handles the singular deviations caused by different manufacturing machineries and labor during the transformer manufacturing and overhaul process. Therefore, application of this method enables different companies to obtain different results for the same designs and materials employed, using their historical data. Effectiveness of this method is verified by inspection of 54 full size distribution transformer measurement data.