基于优化Bray-Curtis相异度和PSO算法的轴承剩余寿命预测方法研究

轴承在车辆运行过程中既承受载荷又传递载荷,工作环境非常恶劣,若发生故障,会严重威胁车辆的正常运行安全,因此对轴承开展剩余寿命预测方法研究具有重大意义。文章提出了采用稀疏自编码器和Bray-Curtis相异度相结合的方式构建新的轴承健康指标集,并利用改进后的粒子群优化(Particle Swarm Optimization,PSO)算法建立轴承退化模型,最后对测试轴承的剩余寿命进行预测。首先,将轴承健康样本及实测数据的各特征指标输入到稀疏自编码器中进行训练,提取出2种轴承特征参数,计算Bray-Curtis相异度差值作为新的健康指标;然后,基于改进后PSO算法建立轴承退化模型;最后,依据新的健康指标对实测状态下的轴承进行剩余寿命预测。结果表明:该退化模型的拟合曲线预测精度较高,其性能退化曲线与实际轴承退化情况较为接近,可以较好地预测轴承的剩余寿命。

The Accelerated Expansion of the Universe in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle

The main aim of the paper is to present (and at the same time offer) a differ-ent perspective for the analysis of the accelerated expansion of the Universe. A perspective that can surely be considered as being “in parallel” to the tradition-al ones, such as those based, for example, on the hypotheses of “Dark Matter” and “Dark Energy”, or better as a “com-possible” perspective, because it is not understood as being “exclusive”. In fact, it is an approach that, when con-firmed by experimental results, always keeps its validity from an “operative” point of view. This is because, in analogy to the traditional perspectives, on the basis of Popper’s Falsification Principle the corresponding “Generative” Logic on which it is based has not the property of the perfect induction. The basic difference then only consists in the fact that the Evolution of the Universe is now modeled by considering the Universe as a Self-Organizing System, which is thus analyzed in the light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle.

基于Bray-Curtis相异度的冲突度量方法

无法准确度量证据间的冲突程度是D-S证据理论存在的一个基本问题。为了有效地解决此问题,基于Bray-Curtis相异度公式,提出了一种新的冲突度量方法,它满足非负性、规范性、对称性、一致性和三角不等式等冲突度量性质,具有计算负担小、度量精度高的优点。通过理论证明以及实例仿真验证了所提方法的有效性。

ORDINATION AND GRADIENT ANALYSIS OF CONIFEROUS FOREST IN DAXINGANLING

In this paper,the quantitative approach is applied on the study of coniferous forestbased on the data which were collected by the field investigation in Daxinganling region.The mainpurpose is objectively to show the position of communities in the space and the relationship be-tween the community and environment.By means of ordination,it is found that dahurian larch for-est,mongolian scots pine forest and korean fir forest lie in different positions. Gradient analysis ofthree dominant types of conigerous forest has revealed the difference of ecological amplitude,thedifference is one of the important reasons that determine the different communities in the differentenvironment.

Studies on the Synthesis and Complexing Behavior of Crown Ethers with External Coordination Center

The synthesis, characterization of five ditopic or tritopic crown compounds were reported in this paper together with the preparation of the corresponding hetero-dinuclear and hetero-trinuclear complexes with different metal cations.

Feasibility of Multi-lateral Co-ordination in the Asia-Pacific

There are really piles of tasks before the Asia-Pacific as the region is approach-ing the 21st century. The course of development of some of the major trendsand contradictions can be foreseen. But the complexity of the situation caused bymulti-laterality and the interdependence and interaction of the countries of the re-gion requires that we should break through the old framework of thinking,

Inter-limb and intra-limb coordination control of quadruped robots

To realize the coordinated and stable rhythmic motion of quadruped robots （QRs）, the locomotion control method of QRs based on central pattern generator （CPG） was explored. In tradi- tional control strategies based on CPG, few CPG models care about the intra-limb coordination of QRs, and the durations of stance phase and swing phase are always equal. In view of these deficien- cies, a new and simpler multi-joint coordinated control method for both inter-limb and intra-limb was proposed in this paper. A layered CPG control network to realize the locomotion control of QRs was constructed by using modified Hopf oscillators. The coupled relationships among hip joints of all limbs and between hip joint and knee joint within a limb were established. Using the co-simulation method of ADAMS and MATLAB/Simulink, various gait simulation experiments were carried out and the effectiveness of the designed control network was tested. Simulation results show that the pro- posed control method is effective for QRs and can meet the control requirements of QRs＇ gaits with different duty factors.

Generativity of Self-Organizing Processes and Their Correlative Description in Terms of a Formal Language of Meta-Ordinal Generative Nature, in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle and the Explicit Solution to the “Three-Body Problem”

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the internal processes of Self-Organizing Systems represent a unique and singular process, characterized by their specific generativity. This process can be modeled using the Maximum Ordinality Principle and its associated formal language, known as the “Incipient” Differential Calculus (IDC).

Three-Drug Therapies in Psychiatry in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle and the Explicit Solution to the “Three-Body Problem”—D.D. 23 Luglio 2023, Tempo Ordinario (3.00 e 10.20)

The present paper aims at showing the possible adoption in Psychiatry of a general methodology finalized to prescribe the most appropriate Therapy based on the knowledge of its correlative effects in advance, instead of recognizing them ex post. The specific case here considered is the “bipolar disorder”, in which the adoption of three different drugs is the most common practice, although with a possible differentiation between the prescription in the morning and in the evening, respectively. Thus, the proposed methodology will consider the Ordinal Interactions between the various drugs by evaluating their combined effects, which will result as being not a simple additive “sum”, because they are evaluated on the basis of the Maximum Ordinality Principle (MOP) and, in addition, in Adherence to the Explicit Solution to the “Three-Body Problem”. In this way the Methodology here proposed is able to suggest how to account for the synergistic effects of the various drugs, especially when the latter are characterized by different concentrations and, at the same time, by generally different half-lives respectively.

An Ordinal Multi-Dimensional Classification(OMDC)for Predictive Maintenance

Predictive Maintenance is a type of condition-based maintenance that assesses the equipment's states and estimates its failure probability and when maintenance should be performed.Although machine learning techniques have been frequently implemented in this area,the existing studies disregard to the nat-ural order between the target attribute values of the historical sensor data.Thus,these methods cause losing the inherent order of the data that positively affects the prediction performances.To deal with this problem,a novel approach,named Ordinal Multi-dimensional Classification(OMDC),is proposed for estimating the conditions of a hydraulic system's four components by taking into the natural order of class values.To demonstrate the prediction ability of the proposed approach,eleven different multi-dimensional classification algorithms(traditional Binary Relevance(BR),Classifier Chain(CC),Bayesian Classifier Chain(BCC),Monte Carlo Classifier Chain(MCC),Probabilistic Classifier Chain(PCC),Clas-sifier Dependency Network(CDN),Classifier Trellis(CT),Classifier Dependency Trellis(CDT),Label Powerset(LP),Pruned Sets(PS),and Random k-Labelsets(RAKEL))were implemented using the Ordinal Class Classifier(OCC)algorithm.Besides,seven different classification algorithms(Multilayer Perceptron(MLP),Support Vector Machine(SVM),k-Nearest Neighbour(kNN),Decision Tree(C4.5),Bagging,Random Forest(RF),and Adaptive Boosting(AdaBoost))were chosen as base learners for the OCC algorithm.The experimental results present that the proposed OMDC approach using binary relevance multi-dimensional classification methods predicts the conditions of a hydraulic system's multiple components with high accuracy.Also,it is clearly seen from the results that the OMDC models that utilize ensemble-based classification algorithms give more reliable prediction performances with an average Hamming score of 0.853 than the others that use traditional algorithms as base learners.

Solution to the “Three-Body Problem” in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle, as a “Suggestion” for a Ri-Orientation of the Present Scientific Perspective in “Favor” of the “Irreducible Quality”

This paper presents the Solution to the “Three-body Problem” in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle. In the first part, however, it starts with the Solution to the Solar System, made up of “11 Bodies”. This is because, in such a context, the “Three-body Problem” can be analyzed in its all descriptive possibilities. Nonetheless, the paper also presents the Solution to the “Three-body Problem” with reference to Systems totally independent from the Solar System, such as, for example, the “Triple Stars” and the “Triple Galaxies”. In this way, the paper offers a sufficiently complete framework concerning the Solution to the “Three-body Problem”, always in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle, described in detail in Appendix A.

Is Public Co-Ordination of Investment in Information Security Desirable?

This paper provides for the presentation, in an integrated manner, of a sequence of results addressing the consequences of the presence of an information steward in an ecosystem under attack and establishes the appropriate defensive investment responses, thus allowing for a cohesive understanding of the nature of the information steward in a variety of attack contexts. We determine the level of investment in information security and attacking intensity when agents react in a non-coordinated manner and compare them to the case of the system’s coordinated response undertaken under the guidance of a steward. We show that only in the most well-designed institutional set-up the presence of the well-informed steward provides for an increase of the system’s resilience to attacks. In the case in which both the information available to the steward and its policy instruments are curtailed, coordinated policy responses yield no additional benefits to individual agents and in some case they actually compared unfavourably to atomistic responses. The system’s sustainability does improve in the presence of a steward, which deters attackers and reduces the numbers and intensity of attacks. In most cases, the resulting investment expenditure undertaken by the agents in the ecosystem exceeds its Pareto efficient magnitude.

生育政策、婚育状态与生活满意度:来自微观序数数据的证据

生活满意度一般是由李克特量表测算得到的序数数据构成,反映了个体对幸福感的主观评价,是基于理想和现实状况比较后的综合度量。现考虑在基数变量优势分析和指数测算的基础上调整修改,创新性地运用序数数据优势分析和序数数据指数测算方法刻画中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)中个体婚育状态与生活满意度的分布特征,比较生育政策调整前后不同婚育状态下个体生活满意度在总体、性别间和孩次间的差异,分析其极化和不均衡状况。进一步,选取15~49岁育龄妇女作为生育主体,在关注年龄别育龄妇女生活满意度分布差异的同时,结合城乡、区域和受教育水平等育龄特征进行异质性分析,探究如何针对性地提升个体生活满意度以达到改善生育水平现状的目的。研究结果表明:生育政策调整后,总体满意度提升且极化和不均衡状况有所缓解;已婚二孩个体生活满意度最高,女性生活满意度高于男性;离异丧偶人群满意度差异较大,单身未婚女性和已婚男性满意度最为均衡,孩次由1孩变为2孩的满意度不均衡状况的缓解程度最大,年纪较轻的育龄人群缓解程度较大;育龄人群极化和不均衡状况与城乡发展、地区发展水平和受教育水平成反比。未来应继续加强社会福利体系建设,切实提高个体生活满意度进而提升社会整体生育意愿和生育水平。

国际承包商合规体系的有效性度量研究

为响应廉洁“一带一路”号召,助力国际承包商开展有效的合规管理,采用文献分析法、德尔菲法构建企业层面的合规指标体系,并基于Fuzzy-OPA形成合规体系的有效性度量模型,通过调研某国际承包商的合规体系验证模型的合理性。研究结果表明:合规指标体系包含合规准则、措施及最佳实践,基于Fuzzy-OPA构建的度量模型能够评价企业合规体系的有效性,为诊断合规薄弱环节、完善合规体系提供参考。

有序标签噪声的鲁棒估计与过滤方法

较大规模的标注数据集中难免会存在标签噪声,这在一定程度上限制了模型的泛化性能。有序回归数据集的标签是离散值,但不同标签之间又有一定次序关系。虽然有序回归的标签兼有分类和回归标签的特征,但面向分类和回归任务的标签噪声过滤算法对有序标签噪声并不完全适用。针对此问题,提出了标签含噪时回归模型的Akaike泛化误差估计,在此基础上设计了面向有序回归任务的标签噪声过滤框架。此外,提出了一种鲁棒的有序标签噪声估计方法,其采用基于中位数的融合策略以降低异常估计分量的干扰。最后,该方法与所提框架结合形成了噪声鲁棒融合过滤(Robust Fusion Filtering,RFF)算法。在标准数据集和真实年龄估计数据集上均验证了算法的有效性。实验结果表明,在有序回归任务中,RFF算法性能优于其他分类和回归过滤算法,能够适应不同类型的噪声数据,并有效提升数据质量和模型泛化性能。

优先权之反思与重述

优先权的概念范畴有狭义和广义之分。源自法国民法的狭义优先权长期游离于我国债物二分体系之中,已造成权利性质难辨、公示机制阙如和其他衍生的学理弊端。广义优先权谱系的创设存在语境虚假、效果无益、集合异类等显著缺陷。在狭义优先权中,一般优先权实为债权,特别优先权实为法定抵押权。此种法定抵押权与受其担保的主债权相区分,具有债法和物法的双重面相。其他所谓的“优先权”子项主要包括竞争中享有优待地位的资格和对因顺位判定原则或规则所生结果的描述。

热带中西太平洋大眼金枪鱼的繁殖生物学特性

利用漂流金枪鱼延绳钓作业方式,于2018年5月—2019年3月对热带中西太平洋海域(WCPO,2°03′~11°17′S,163°14′~173°35′E)的大眼金枪鱼进行了取样,对其中886尾进行了繁殖生物学测定。使用广义线性模型(GLM)和多元有序Logistic回归模型,结合圆形统计方法,分析个体叉长等生物因素、渔获水深和月度等时空因素对繁殖生物学参数的影响。结果显示,雄性和雌性平均叉长分别为(132.2±19.1)cm和(125.4±16.8)cm。取样群体中,雌雄比为0.54±0.74,且叉长与雌雄比具有负相关(r=−0.263,P=0.016),叉长大于140 cm后,雄性占主导。GLM模型结果显示,性腺指数(GSI)与叉长之间存在显著的二次方关系,即个体GSI随着叉长增加,当雄性和雌性叉长分别达到130~140 cm和140~150 cm后,GSI随叉长下降。基于圆形统计发现,月度对个体GSI具有显著影响,其中雄性GSI上半年较下半年高(正弦显著,P<0.001),而雌性GSI年末和年初高于年中(余弦显著,P=0.021)。有序多元Logistic模型结果显示,性腺成熟度随叉长显著增加(P<0.001),雄性性腺成熟度在5—7月较高(余弦显著,P=0.004)。此外,栖息水层对雄性个体的性腺成熟度具有显著的影响(正相关,P<0.001)。雄性和雌性个体50%性成熟叉长分别为(96.13±1.24)cm和(104.93±2.60)cm。研究结果可为更好地了解热带WCPO大眼金枪鱼的繁殖生物学特征、科学养护热带WCPO大眼金枪鱼资源提供参考。

价值回归:健康中国视域下门诊保障制度改革

健康保障,特别是医疗保障关乎亿万人民福祉,完善基本门诊保障,是新时代中国医保制度改革的重要抓手,也是建设健康中国的有力支撑。中国基本医疗保障制度的建立和演变是从住院保障逐步向住院、门诊“双统筹”发展的过程,相比于住院保障,门诊保障正处于改革关键期。门诊保障制度及实践在医保运行中发挥着基础、广泛的作用,须遵循“制度实践与价值取向相统一”的原则。一方面,制度实践是价值取向的外在反映;另一方面,内在价值取向是制度实践的有效内驱力,因此,要想有效发挥门诊保障制度效能,必须充分考察制度所蕴含的价值取向,即只有主动调试门诊保障制度运行的价值取向与实然状态,才能更好地发挥门诊保障制度优势。因此,通过以“制度运行及实践现状-存在问题及价值取向偏差-制度改革制约因素-价值回归及改革路径探索”为架构进行论述,重新审视基本医保门诊保障的实践现状以及实践中所展现的价值取向,发现门诊保障的制度结构分割与碎片化、基层执行主体服务能力薄弱、运行机制筹资与管理能力不足等问题,进而提出完善路径与治理措施,以期促进医疗保障高质量发展。

政府补贴下考虑风险厌恶的双渠道绿色供应链运营决策及协调契约

在政府对绿色产品提供补贴的基础上,构建以制造商为主导的供应链博弈模型,利用均值方差法分析了在双方风险中性(RN)、双方风险厌恶(RA)、仅制造商风险厌恶(MRA)和仅零售商风险厌恶(RRA)4种模式下的双渠道绿色供应链决策及效用,并设计带有转移支付的成本分担契约以实现协调。研究发现:在RRA模式下,产品绿色度与风险厌恶程度正相关;而在MRA模式和RA模式下,产品绿色度与风险厌恶程度负相关;双方效用在4种模式下均与政府补贴正相关,且在RRA模式下制造商效用受政府补贴的影响最为显著;当研发成本系数较大时,在MRA模式和RRA模式下,一方的效用与另一方的风险厌恶程度正相关,而在RA模式下双方效用与风险厌恶程度负相关。此外,通过数值分析揭示了成本分担比例与风险厌恶程度负相关、与政府补贴正相关。以上结论可为双渠道绿色供应链的决策制定及协调管理提供参考。