An Investigation Report on Production Conditions of Sugarcane in Guangxi in 2016

To predict and assess production conditions of sugarcane in Guangxi in 2016,by using methods of field survey and data collection,the seedling situation,breed structure,planting area,planting period,plant diseases and insect pests of sugarcane in six major sugarcane producing cities of Guangxi were surveyed. The results show that the overall situation of sugarcane seedlings in Guangxi in 2016 became slightly worse than that in 2015,but there were enough good sugarcane seedlings in 2016. The dead heart rate of sugarcane decreased in most sugarcane regions from 2015 to 2016,that is,the comprehensive control of borers gave initial results; the smut infection rate of sugarcane rose from 2015 to 2016 and tended to increase. The situation of decrease in the planting area of sugarcane in three consecutive years was controlled,and the planting area of sugarcane increased slightly from 2015 to 2016. Due to the construction of ' double high' bases,the breed variety of sugarcane in Guangxi was improved further in 2016. It is necessary to strengthen field management and conduct chemical weeding,prevention and control of borers and aphids in the later period in time.

Algorithm based on local breeding of growing modes for convection-allowing ensemble forecasting

We propose a method based on the local breeding of growing modes(LBGM) considering strong local weather characteristics for convection-allowing ensemble forecasting. The impact radius was introduced in the breeding of growing modes to develop the LBGM method. In the local breeding process, the ratio between the root mean square error(RMSE) of local space forecast at each grid point and that of the initial full-field forecast is computed to rescale perturbations. Preliminary evaluations of the method based on a nature run were performed in terms of three aspects: perturbation structure, spread,and the RMSE of the forecast. The experimental results confirm that the local adaptability of perturbation schemes improves after rescaling by the LBGM method. For perturbation physical variables and some near-surface meteorological elements, the LBGM method could increase the spread and reduce the RMSE of forecast,improving the performance of the ensemble forecast system.In addition, different from those existing methods of global orthogonalization approach, this new initial-condition perturbation method takes into full consideration the local characteristics of the convective-scale weather system, thus making convectionallowing ensemble forecast more accurate.