Measuring bullwhip effect is useful for making better controls on production planning and enhancing the supply chain operating efficiency.First,this article establishes the comparative analysis model of bullwhip effec...Measuring bullwhip effect is useful for making better controls on production planning and enhancing the supply chain operating efficiency.First,this article establishes the comparative analysis model of bullwhip effect between(s,S)and Periodic Review(PR)inventory policy based on the quantitative bullwhip effect model under different inventories.Then,the impacts of lead time,inventory review time,autocorrelation coefficient,and the number of samples on the gap of bullwhip effect under(s,S)and PR IP are analyzed.The results show that bullwhip effect in PR is more intense than(s,S)inventory policy.Contractors should pay more attention to control bullwhip effect when adopting PR inventory policy to enhance the total operating efficiency of the engineering project supply chains.展开更多
Recent years have witnessed a rapid growth of interest in the study of the dynamic behavior of replenishment rules of bullwhip effect. We prove that bullwhip effect and butterfly effect share a same the self-oscillati...Recent years have witnessed a rapid growth of interest in the study of the dynamic behavior of replenishment rules of bullwhip effect. We prove that bullwhip effect and butterfly effect share a same the self-oscillation amplifying mechanism that is the ordering decisions the supplier self-oscillation amplify the perturbations brought by the errors in the processing of retailers' demand information. This results as an explicit self-similar structure of the sensitivity of the system to the initial values duty to the nonlinear mechanism. In this paper, the causes process of the bullwhip effect is described as the internal nonlinear mechanism and study on the complexity of bullwhip effect for order-up-to policy under demand signal processing. The methodology is based on fractal and chaotic theory and allows important insights to be gained about the complexity behavior of bullwhip effect.展开更多
Shorter product life cycles present new dressed in supply chain literature. This research challenges to managing production and logistics not adequately adaddresses issues pertaining to the management of supply chains...Shorter product life cycles present new dressed in supply chain literature. This research challenges to managing production and logistics not adequately adaddresses issues pertaining to the management of supply chains in a short life cycle environment. In this paper, we study the short life cycle environment; then we develop the ventory policy of the indirect manufacturer by explicitly using his demand us an output of the retailer's optimal inoptimal ordering policy. Finally, we also provide causes of the bullwhip effect in the context of short life cycle products.展开更多
The bullwhip effect in a multistage supply chain was analyzed using sophisticated stationary forecasts (third order moving average and third order exponential smoothing forecasts). The third order exponential smoothin...The bullwhip effect in a multistage supply chain was analyzed using sophisticated stationary forecasts (third order moving average and third order exponential smoothing forecasts). The third order exponential smoothing and third order moving average forecasts sometimes have a variance reducing effect on the supply chain.In a supply chain with positively correlated or independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) demands, the order variance based on simple moving average forecast (or simple exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on second order moving average forecast (or second order exponential smoothing forecast),and the order variance based on second order moving average forecast( or second order exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on third order moving average forecast( or third order exponential smoothing forecast). In addition, for i.i.d demands, third order exponential smoothing forecast leads to a larger variation than third order moving average forecast.展开更多
The bullwhip effect is w idely found in business and exerts adverse effects on business activities.To investigate the influence of the bullwhip effect on firm s'performance and their responses,this study proposed ...The bullwhip effect is w idely found in business and exerts adverse effects on business activities.To investigate the influence of the bullwhip effect on firm s'performance and their responses,this study proposed an environment-behavior-performance analysis fram ework and offered a new perspective for studying the bullwhip effect.Using data collected from 1,734 listed manufacturers in China from 2002 to 2017,we adopted regression models to test the proposed m odel and conducted a series of robustness tests.We find that the bullwhip effect is positively related to operating risk,inventory,and cash holdings,and the moderate levels of inventory and cash are negatively associated with operating risk.Specifically,inventory and cash play different roles and work together to alleviate operating risk induced by the bullwhip effect.However,excess resource holdings are positively associated with operating risk.Therefore,firm swith different levels of resources should hold suitable levels of inventory,cash,or both as contingent responses to the bullwhip effect.展开更多
文摘Measuring bullwhip effect is useful for making better controls on production planning and enhancing the supply chain operating efficiency.First,this article establishes the comparative analysis model of bullwhip effect between(s,S)and Periodic Review(PR)inventory policy based on the quantitative bullwhip effect model under different inventories.Then,the impacts of lead time,inventory review time,autocorrelation coefficient,and the number of samples on the gap of bullwhip effect under(s,S)and PR IP are analyzed.The results show that bullwhip effect in PR is more intense than(s,S)inventory policy.Contractors should pay more attention to control bullwhip effect when adopting PR inventory policy to enhance the total operating efficiency of the engineering project supply chains.
文摘Recent years have witnessed a rapid growth of interest in the study of the dynamic behavior of replenishment rules of bullwhip effect. We prove that bullwhip effect and butterfly effect share a same the self-oscillation amplifying mechanism that is the ordering decisions the supplier self-oscillation amplify the perturbations brought by the errors in the processing of retailers' demand information. This results as an explicit self-similar structure of the sensitivity of the system to the initial values duty to the nonlinear mechanism. In this paper, the causes process of the bullwhip effect is described as the internal nonlinear mechanism and study on the complexity of bullwhip effect for order-up-to policy under demand signal processing. The methodology is based on fractal and chaotic theory and allows important insights to be gained about the complexity behavior of bullwhip effect.
文摘Shorter product life cycles present new dressed in supply chain literature. This research challenges to managing production and logistics not adequately adaddresses issues pertaining to the management of supply chains in a short life cycle environment. In this paper, we study the short life cycle environment; then we develop the ventory policy of the indirect manufacturer by explicitly using his demand us an output of the retailer's optimal inoptimal ordering policy. Finally, we also provide causes of the bullwhip effect in the context of short life cycle products.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation ofChina(No70573068)The Shanghai Education Com-mittee Foundation(No05FZ11)The Shanghai Lead-ing Academic Discipline(NoT0602)
文摘The bullwhip effect in a multistage supply chain was analyzed using sophisticated stationary forecasts (third order moving average and third order exponential smoothing forecasts). The third order exponential smoothing and third order moving average forecasts sometimes have a variance reducing effect on the supply chain.In a supply chain with positively correlated or independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) demands, the order variance based on simple moving average forecast (or simple exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on second order moving average forecast (or second order exponential smoothing forecast),and the order variance based on second order moving average forecast( or second order exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on third order moving average forecast( or third order exponential smoothing forecast). In addition, for i.i.d demands, third order exponential smoothing forecast leads to a larger variation than third order moving average forecast.
基金the National Key R&D Program of China,under grant No.2019YFB1404901the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC),under Grants No.71821002,No.72091214 and No.71602171.
文摘The bullwhip effect is w idely found in business and exerts adverse effects on business activities.To investigate the influence of the bullwhip effect on firm s'performance and their responses,this study proposed an environment-behavior-performance analysis fram ework and offered a new perspective for studying the bullwhip effect.Using data collected from 1,734 listed manufacturers in China from 2002 to 2017,we adopted regression models to test the proposed m odel and conducted a series of robustness tests.We find that the bullwhip effect is positively related to operating risk,inventory,and cash holdings,and the moderate levels of inventory and cash are negatively associated with operating risk.Specifically,inventory and cash play different roles and work together to alleviate operating risk induced by the bullwhip effect.However,excess resource holdings are positively associated with operating risk.Therefore,firm swith different levels of resources should hold suitable levels of inventory,cash,or both as contingent responses to the bullwhip effect.