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赤道东太平洋海温异常对6月中国南方降水影响的数值模拟 被引量:6
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作者 李琰 王亚非 董敏 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第2期250-259,共10页
利用NCARCAM3.0大气环流模式,研究6月长江流域及以南地区降水对前期赤道东太平洋海温异常的响应。首先,在赤道东太平洋1997年9月至1998年6月实际海温异常基础上构造的理想化海温异常,依据持续时间不同叠加相应的海温异常值在气候平均外... 利用NCARCAM3.0大气环流模式,研究6月长江流域及以南地区降水对前期赤道东太平洋海温异常的响应。首先,在赤道东太平洋1997年9月至1998年6月实际海温异常基础上构造的理想化海温异常,依据持续时间不同叠加相应的海温异常值在气候平均外强迫场上,设计第1组敏感性试验;其次,在上组试验中的前期9月至次年6月持续有海温异常的敏感性试验基础上,改变加入模式中的海温异常强度,设计不同强度海温异常对大气环流和降水影响的第2组试验;最后将上述海温异常值取反加入相应的赤道东太平洋区域,设计一组拉尼娜事件的试验。以(25°—30°N,110°—120°E)区域平均的降水距平值代表整个长江流域及其以南地区降水,模拟结果表明:(1)不同的持续时间强迫得到的降水距平峰值在11月,次年6月其值为最小,整体上降水距平有随持续时间的缩短而减小的趋势。表明前期秋季赤道东太平洋较强的厄尔尼诺事件发生时对6月降水有重要影响,证实了前期诊断分析的结论;(2)模式中加入不同强度的厄尔尼诺事件,在长江流域及其以南地区均有明显的降水正距平(最小降水距平为0.287mm/d,最大为1.98mm/d),降水正距平范围与实际情况接近,表明模式在模拟该地区异常降水时有较好的稳定性,模拟结果值得信任。另外模拟的降水距平有随着海温异常强度的增强而增大的趋势;(3)当模式中加入不同强度拉尼娜事件的海温异常时,模拟结果不稳定,与厄尔尼诺的影响结果不完全相反,与前期诊断分析结果不符。而只有在拉尼娜相当强时模式才能在长江流域及以南地区模拟出一定范围的降水负距平。 展开更多
关键词 cam3.0 海温异常 数值模拟
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中国区域气溶胶对东亚夏季风的可能影响(I):硫酸盐气溶胶的影响 被引量:30
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作者 孙家仁 刘煜 《气候变化研究进展》 CSCD 2008年第2期111-116,共6页
利用NCAR的新一代GCM CAM3.0模式离线耦合一个气溶胶同化系统,模拟研究了中国区域硫酸盐气溶胶的直接气候效应对东亚夏季风及其降水的影响。结果显示:中国区域硫酸盐气溶胶引起全球平均的直接辐射强迫为-0.25W/m2,中国内陆约25°N... 利用NCAR的新一代GCM CAM3.0模式离线耦合一个气溶胶同化系统,模拟研究了中国区域硫酸盐气溶胶的直接气候效应对东亚夏季风及其降水的影响。结果显示:中国区域硫酸盐气溶胶引起全球平均的直接辐射强迫为-0.25W/m2,中国内陆约25°N以北普遍降温,而海表温度升高。由此导致海陆温差缩小,东亚夏季风强度减弱,中国地区季风降水明显减少,而尤以积云降水减少起主要作用。硫酸盐气溶胶对中国地区的对流活动起抑制作用。 展开更多
关键词 GCM cam3.0 硫酸盐气溶胶 直接气候效应 东亚夏季风
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热带太平洋、印度洋海温异常对处于厄尔尼诺事件成熟期的东亚Hadley环流的影响 被引量:3
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作者 李琰 朱伟军 《大气科学学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2010年第3期355-364,共10页
分析了热带太平洋ElNio事件和热带印度洋海盆一致的暖海温异常事件(记为暖海盆模态)与东亚Hadley环流的关系及海温异常对东亚Hadley环流的影响。结果表明:(1)东亚Hadley环流与ElNio循环的关系密切,ElNio事件从开始到消亡的不同位... 分析了热带太平洋ElNio事件和热带印度洋海盆一致的暖海温异常事件(记为暖海盆模态)与东亚Hadley环流的关系及海温异常对东亚Hadley环流的影响。结果表明:(1)东亚Hadley环流与ElNio循环的关系密切,ElNio事件从开始到消亡的不同位相期,东亚地区表现为随位相变化的异常经向垂直环流,在El Nin^o成熟期由异常顺时针经向环流圈转换为异常逆时针经向环流圈,意味着东亚Hadley环流圈的显著减弱。(2)冬季Nio3指数、赤道印度洋海盆一致型模态指数(IOBMI)与东亚Hadley环流指数间呈负相关关系,相关系数分别为-0.42、-0.39,远超过0.01信度的显著性检验,表明当ElNio事件和印度洋暖海盆模事件发生时,东亚Hadley环流减弱。模拟结果与诊断分析结果一致。(3)鉴于印度洋海盆模态和太平洋ElNio事件的密切联系,在考虑冬季东亚Hadley环流变化时,应考虑ElNio事件和印度洋海盆一致型海温异常事件的共同作用。数值试验结果表明两大洋的共同作用会产生更强的东亚异常逆时针经向垂直环流,使得东亚Hadley环流显著减弱。 展开更多
关键词 东亚Hadley环流 热带海温 cam3.0 数值模拟
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模式初值敏感性对中期数值天气预报的影响
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作者 牛嫣静 车玉章 +1 位作者 彭新东 范广洲 《成都信息工程大学学报》 2017年第3期297-303,共7页
为进一步研究准定常外源强迫条件下中期数值天气预报对初值的敏感性问题,采用ECMWF ERA-interim再分析资料及NCEP再分析资料作为模式初值,利用CAM3.0模式,对1982-2011年1月准定常短波辐射强迫情况下30个天气个例的15天预报结果进行分析... 为进一步研究准定常外源强迫条件下中期数值天气预报对初值的敏感性问题,采用ECMWF ERA-interim再分析资料及NCEP再分析资料作为模式初值,利用CAM3.0模式,对1982-2011年1月准定常短波辐射强迫情况下30个天气个例的15天预报结果进行分析,着重讨论预报结果对初值的依赖性,得出以下主要结论:模式确定性预报试验中,在10天内预报技巧显著,初值影响随预报时间延长而降低,10天以上仍有一定预报技巧。初值对15天以内的数值天气预报都有一定的影响,优良初值可提高预报质量。 展开更多
关键词 气象学 数值天气预报 初值敏感性 cam3.0模式 再分析资料
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NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SSTA IMPACTS OVER THE GLOBAL OCEAN ON THE ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION OVER EURASIA IN JANUARY 2008
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作者 李琰 朱伟军 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2010年第3期238-246,共9页
In this paper,we discussed the features of atmospheric circulations over Eurasia as a response to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean,the equatorial Pacific,Kuroshio and the North ... In this paper,we discussed the features of atmospheric circulations over Eurasia as a response to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean,the equatorial Pacific,Kuroshio and the North Atlantic.Our results are shown as follows: (1) CAM3.0,driven by the combined SSTAs over the four oceanic regions,can simulate well the features of anomalous atmospheric circulations over Eurasia in January 2008,indicating that the effects of the SSTAs over these four regions were one of the key causes of the anomalous systems over Eurasia.(2) The SSTAs over each key region contributed to the intensification of blocking over the Urals Mountains and a main East Asian trough.However,the influence of the SSTAs over individual oceanic regions differed from one another in other aspects.The SSTAs over the North Atlantic had an impact on the 500-hPa anomalous height (Z500A) over the middle-high latitudes and had a somewhat smaller effect over the low latitudes.For the warm SSTAs over Kuroshio,the subtropical high was much stronger,spread farther north than usual,and had an anomalous easterly that dominated the northwest Pacific Ocean.The warm SSTAs over the tropical Indian Ocean could have caused a negative Z500A from West Asia to Middle Asia,a remarkably anomalous southwesterly from the Indian Ocean to the south of China and an anomalous anticyclone circulation over the South China Sea-Philippine Sea region.Because of the La Nia event,the winter monsoon was stronger than normal,with an anomalously cooler northerly over the southeastern coastal areas of China.(3) The combined effects of the SSTAs over the four key regions were likely more important to the atmospheric circulation anomalies of January 2008 over Eurasia than the effects of individual or partly combined SSTAs.This unique SSTA distribution possibly led to the circulation anomalies over Eurasia in January 2008,especially the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the subtropics,which were more similar to those of the winter El Ni?o events than to the circulation anomalies following La Nia. 展开更多
关键词 海温异常 海洋环流 数值模拟 大气环流异常 东南沿海地区 热带印度洋 大气环流特征 中高纬度地区
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The Dynamical and Climate Tests of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Using the Second-Order Adams-Bashforth Method 被引量:2
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作者 赵滨 钟青 《Acta meteorologica Sinica》 SCIE 2009年第6期738-749,共12页
The Asselin-Robert time filter used in the leapfrog scheme can degrade the accuracy of calculations.The second-order Adams-Bashforth method with the same accuracy as the leapfrog scheme is not subject to time splittin... The Asselin-Robert time filter used in the leapfrog scheme can degrade the accuracy of calculations.The second-order Adams-Bashforth method with the same accuracy as the leapfrog scheme is not subject to time splitting instability.A new semi-implicit atmospheric general circulation spectral model is developed on the basis of NCAR(National Center for Atmospheric Research)CAM3.0(Community Atmosphere Model 3.0).In this new model,the second-order Adams-Bashforth method is used as an alternative to the leapfrog scheme,and a Crank-Nicholson scheme is incorporated for the treatment of fast gravity modes.In this paper,the new model is tested by the Held-Suarez test and an idealized baroclinic wave test.Results of the Held-Suarez test show that the second-order Adams-Bashforth model has similar climate states to those of many other global models and it converges with resolutions.Based on the idealized baroclinic wave test,the capability of different time differencing methods for keeping the initial steady-state are compared. This convinces a better ability of the second-order Adams-Bashforth method in maintaining the stability of the initial state.Furthermore,after the baroclinic wave is triggered through overlaying the steady-state initial conditions with the zonal perturbation,the second-order Adams-Bashforth method has an excellent property of convergence,and can represent the process of the baroclinic wave development much better than the original scheme in CAM3.0.A long-term integration of the new model during the period of 1980–1999 is also carried out and compared with that of CAM3.0.It is found that due to the reduction of simulation errors of prognostic variables,the second-order Adams-Bashforth method also has a better simulation ability for the diagnostic variables,such as precipitation. 展开更多
关键词 the Adams-Bashforth method CAM(Community Atmosphere Model)3.0 semi-implicit scheme Held-Suarez test baroclinic wave test
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