Determination of Upland Rice Cultivar Coefficient Specific Parameters for DSSAT (Version 4.7)-CERES-Rice Crop Simulation Model and Evaluation of the Crop Model under Different Temperature Treatments conditions

To develop basis for strategic or arranged decision making towards crop yield improvement in Thailand, a new method in which crop models could be used is essential. Therefore, the objective of this study was to measure cultivar specific parameters by using DSSAT (v4.7) Cropping Simulation Model (CSM) with five upland rice genotypes namely Dawk Pa-yawm, Mai Tahk, Bow Leb Nahng, Dawk Kha 50 and Dawk Kahm. Experiment was laid out in a Completely Randomized Design (CRD) with split plot design. Results showed that five upland rice genotypes had significantly affected each other by different temperature treatments (28°C, 30°C, 32°C) with grain yield, tops weight, harvest index, flowering, and maturity date. At the same time, all the phenological traits had highly significant variation with the genotypes. The cultivar specific parameters obtained by using a temperature tolerant cultivar (Basmati 385) with five upland genotypes involved in the DSSAT4.7-CSM. Model evaluation results indicated that utilizing the estimated cultivar coefficient parameters, model simulated well with varying temperature treatments as indicated by the agreement index (d-statistic) closer to unity. Hence, it was estimated that model calibration and evaluation was realistic in the limits of test cropping seasons and that CSM fitted with cultivar specific parameters can be used in simulation studies for investigation, farm managing or decision making. This electronic document is a “live” template. The various components of your paper [title, text, heads, etc.] are already defined on the style sheet, as illustrated by the portions given in this document.

Assessment of Crop Yield in China Simulated by Thirteen Global Gridded Crop Models

Global gridded crop models(GGCMs) have been broadly applied to assess the impacts of climate and environmental change and adaptation on agricultural production. China is a major grain producing country, but thus far only a few studies have assessed the performance of GGCMs in China, and these studies mainly focused on the average and interannual variability of national and regional yields. Here, a systematic national-and provincial-scale evaluation of the simulations by13 GGCMs [12 from the GGCM Intercomparison(GGCMI) project, phase 1, and CLM5-crop] of the yields of four crops(wheat, maize, rice, and soybean) in China during 1980–2009 was carried out through comparison with crop yield statistics collected from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Results showed that GGCMI models generally underestimate the national yield of rice but overestimate it for the other three crops, while CLM5-crop can reproduce the national yields of wheat, maize, and rice well. Most GGCMs struggle to simulate the spatial patterns of crop yields. In terms of temporal variability, GGCMI models generally fail to capture the observed significant increases, but some can skillfully simulate the interannual variability. Conversely, CLM5-crop can represent the increases in wheat, maize, and rice, but works less well in simulating the interannual variability. At least one model can skillfully reproduce the temporal variability of yields in the top-10 producing provinces in China, albeit with a few exceptions. This study, for the first time, provides a complete picture of GGCM performance in China, which is important for GGCM development and understanding the reliability and uncertainty of national-and provincial-scale crop yield prediction in China.

SAR Data Assimilation for Crop Biomass Simulation Based on Crop Growth Model

Biomass from SAR data was assimilated into crop growth model to describe relationship between crop biomass and crop growth time to improve estimation accuracy of biomass. In addition, inverse model was established in order to estimate biomass according to relationship between biomass and backscattering coefficients from SAR data. Based on cost function, parameters of growth model were optimized as per conjugate gradient method, minimizing the differences between estimated biomass and inversion values from SAR data. The results indicated that the simulated biomass using the revised growth model with SAR data was consistent with the measured one in time distribution and even higher in accuracy than that without SAR data. Hence, the key parameters of crop growth model could be revised by real-time growth information from SAR data and accuracy of the simulated biomass could be improved accordingly.

基于AquaCrop和WinSRFR组合的夏玉米沟灌方案优化

确定作物合理的灌溉制度和灌水技术要素组合是科学管理农业水资源的基础,可有效缓解水资源短缺矛盾和保障区域粮食安全。基于此,该研究利用在陕西省杨陵区(2022年)和武功县(2017年)进行的夏玉米田间试验,分别对AquaCrop模型和WinSRFR软件进行校准和验证,确定了研究区夏玉米典型水文年(丰水年、平水年和干旱年)的灌溉制度;通过反演沟灌土壤入渗参数和田面糙率,结合确定的灌溉制度,优化了沟灌灌水技术要素组合(入沟流量和灌水时间),并量化评价了优化灌溉制度和灌水技术要素组合对夏玉米的增产能力。结果表明,AquaCrop模型能准确模拟研究区夏玉米生长过程,其中产量模拟值与实测值的相对误差绝对值均值分别为1.85%(校准)和7.47%(验证);研究区夏玉米丰水年(灌浆期)和平水年(拔节期)需灌水1次,干旱年(拔节期和灌浆期)需灌水2次,单次灌水量均为55 mm;反演所得研究区沟灌土壤入渗参数k和α取值范围分别为是55.416~98.437 mm/h^(α)和0.351~0.858,田面糙率n均值为0.056;合理的入沟流量和停水时间取值范围分别为2.2~3.3 L/s和35~16 min,可获得高灌水质量(综合灌水质量指标C_(i)≥85%);以2022年夏玉米优化的灌溉制度和灌水技术要素优化组合为基础,模拟所得夏玉米产量为7.819 t/hm^(2),与无灌溉(5.972 t/hm^(2))、现状条件(7.424 t/hm^(2))和仅对灌溉制度优化(7.659 t/hm^(2))情景相比较,分别提高了30.9%、5.3%和2.1%,且所需灌水量较现状条件可减少59 mm。研究结果可为研究区域夏玉米灌溉制度制定和沟灌方案设计提供理论基础和技术支撑。

Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.

Assimilation of Remote Sensing and Crop Model for LAI Estimation Based on Ensemble Kalman Filter

Data assimilation in agricultural remote sensing research is of great significance to integrate with remote sensing observations and model simulations for parameters estimation. The present investigation not only designed and realized the Ensemble Kalman Filtering algorithm （EnKF） assimilation by combing the crop growth model （CERES-Wheat） with remote sensing data, but also optimized and updated the key parameters （LAI） of winter wheat by using remote sensing data. Results showed that the assimilation LAI and the observation ones agreed with each other, and the R2 reached 0.8315. So assimilation remote sensing and crop model could provide reference data for the agricultural production.

Modeling Soil Organic Matter Dynamics Under Intensive Cropping Systems on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China

A modified CQESTR model, a simple yet useful model frequently used for estimating carbon sequestration in agricultural soils, was developed and applied to evaluate the effects of intensive cropping on soil organic matter （SOM） dynamics and mineralization as well as to estimate carbon dioxide emission from agricultural soils at seven sites on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China. The model was modified using site-specific parameters from short- and mid-term buried organic material experiments at four stages of biomass decomposition. The predicted SOM results were validated using independent data from seven long-term （10- to 20-year） soil fertility experiments in this region. Regression analysis on 1 151 pairs of predicted and measured SOM data had an r2 of 0.91 （P≤0.01）. Therefore, the modified model was able to predict the mineralization of crop residues, organic amendments, and native SOM. Linear regression also showed that SOM mineralization rate （MR） in the plow layer increased by 0.22% when annual crop yield increased by 1 t ha^-1 （P ≤ 0.01）, suggesting an improvement in SOM quality. Apparently, not only did the annual soil respiration efftux merely reflect the intensity of soil organism and plant metabolism, but also the SOM MR in the plow layer. These results suggested that the modified model was simple yet valuable in predicting SOM trends at a single agricultural field and could be a powerful tool for estimating C-storage potential and reconstructing C storage on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China.

Comparison of Crop Model Validation Methods

In this paper, the many indices used in validation of crop models, such as RMSE （root mean square errors）, Sd （standard error of absolute difference）, da （mean absolute difference）, dap （ratio of da to the mean observation）, r （correlation）, and R2 （determination coefficient）, are compared for the same rice architectural parameter model, and their advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. A new index for validation of crop models, dap between the observed and the simulated values, is proposed, with dap〈5% as the suggested standard for precision of crop models. The different kinds of validation methods in crop models should be combined in the following aspects：（1） calculating da and dap; （2） calculating the RMSE or Sd; （3） calculating r and R2, at the same time, plotting 1：1 diagram.

Comparison of Statistical Models for Regional Crop Trial Analysis

Based on the review and comparison of main statistical analysis models for estimating variety-environment cell means in regional crop trials, a new statistical model, LR-PCA composite model was proposed, and the predictive precision of these models were compared by cross validation of an example data. Results showed that the order of model precision was LR-PCA model > AMMI model > PCA model > Treatment Means (TM) model > Linear Regression (LR) model > Additive Main Effects ANOVA model. The precision gain factor of LR-PCA model was 1.55, increasing by 8.4% compared with AMMI.

An united model and simulation of nitrogen transport, uptake and transformation in soil-crop system

Based on the simulation experiments of water and nitrogen transport, transformation and uptaking, under the condition of different cropping pattern of winter wheat in the greenhouse and the condition of different wastewater irrigation plan. An united computing model of crop growth, distribution of roots, water and nitrogen uptaking by roots and transformation in soil crop system was developed. Growth status of crops, root growth condition and water, nitrogen uptaking pattern by roots under different watering and N pollution conditions were simulated and analyzed due to the development of this mathematical model and the identification of parameters and boundary conditions in the greenhouse, so that it provided a primary computing method for selecting an efficient, productive watering and wastewater irrigating plan.

Coupling of a Regional Climate Model with a Crop Development Model and Evaluation of the Coupled Model across China

In this study, the CERES(Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis) crop model was coupled with CLM3.5, the land module of the regional climate model RegCM4. The new coupled model was named RegCM4_CERES; and in this model, crop type was further divided into winter wheat, spring wheat, spring maize, summer maize, early rice, late rice,single rice, and other crop types based on each distribution fraction. The development of each crop sub-type was simulated by the corresponding crop model separately, with each planting and harvesting date. A simulation test using RegCM4_CERES was conducted across China from 1999 to 2008; a control test was also performed using the original RegCM4. Data on crop LAI(leaf area index), soil moisture at 10 cm depth, precipitation, and 2 m air temperature were collected to evaluate the performance of RegCM4_CERES. The evaluation provided comparison of single-station time series, regional distributions,seasonal variations, and statistical indices for RegCM4_CERES. The results revealed that the coupled model had an excellent ability to simulate the phonological changes and spatial variations in crops. The consideration of dynamic crop development in RegCM4_CERES corrected the wet bias of the original RegCM4 over North China and the cold bias over South China.However, the degree of improvement was minimal and the statistical indices for RegCM4_CERES were roughly the same as the original RegCM4.

Modeling the biomass of energy crops：Descriptions, strengths and prospective

The assessment of the biomass of energy crops has garnered widespread interest since renewable bioenergy may become a substantial proportion of the future energy supply, and modeling has been widely used for the simulation of energy crops yields. A literature survey revealed that 23 models have been developed or adapted for simulating the biomass of energy crops, including Miscanthus, switchgrass, maize, poplar, willow, sugarcane, and Eucalyptus camaldulensis. Three categories（radiation model, water-controlled crop model, and integrated model with biochemical and photosynthesis and respiration approaches） were addressed for the selected models according to different principles or approaches used to simulate biomass production processes. EPIC, ALMANAC, APSIM, ISAM, MISCANMOD, MISCANFOR, SILVA, DAYCENT, APEX and SWAT are radiation models based on a radiation use efficiency approach（RUE） with few empirical and statistical parameters. The Aqua Crop model is a typical water-crop model that emphasizes crop water use, the expression of canopy cover, and the separation of evapotranspiration to soil evaporation and plant transpiration to drive crop growth. CANEGRO, 3PG, Crop Syst and DSSAT are integrated models that use photosynthesis and respiration approaches. SECRETS, LPJm L, Agro-BGC, Agro-IBIS, and WIMOVAC/Bio Cro, DNDC, DRAINMOD-GRASS, and Ag TEM are integrated models that use biochemical approaches. Integrated models are mainly mechanistic models or combined with functional models, which are dynamic with spatial and temporal patterns but with complex parameters and large amounts of input data. Energy crop models combined with process-based models, such as EPIC in SWAT and CANEGRO in DSSAT, provide good examples that consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental responses and address the sustainability and socioeconomic goals for energy crops. The use of models for energy crop productivity is increasing rapidly and encouraging; however, relevant databases, such as climate, land use/land cover, soil, topography, and management databases, arescarce. Model structure and design assumptions, as well as input parameters and observed data, remain a challenge for model development and validation. Thus, a comprehensive framework, which includes a high-quality field database and an uncertainty evaluation system, needs to be established for modeling the biomass of energy crops.

A Method for Upscaling Genetic Parameters of CERES-Rice in Regional Applications

To upscale the genetic parameters of CERES-Rice in regional applications, Jiangsu Province, the second largest rice producing province in China, was taken as an example. The province was divided into four rice regions with different rice variety types, and five to six sites in each region were selected. Then the eight genetic parameters of CERES-Rice, particularly the four parameters related to the yield, were modified and validated using the Trial and Error Method and the local statistical data of rice yield at a county level from 2001 to 2004, combined with the regional experiments of rice varieties in the province as well as the local meteorological and soil data （Method 1）. The simulated results of Method 1 were compared with those of other three traditional methods upscaling the genetic parameters, i.e., using one-site experimental data from a local representative rice variety （Method 2）, using local long-term rice yield data at a county level after deducting the trend yield due to progress of science and technology （Method 3）, and using rice yield data at a super scale, such as provincial, ecological zone, country or continent levels （Method 4）. The results showed that the best fitness was obtained by using the Method 1. The coefficients of correlation between the simulated yield and the statistical yield in the Method 1 were significant at 0.05 or 0.01 levels and the root mean squared error （RMSE） values were less than 9% for all the four rice regions. The method for upscaling the genetic parameters of CERES-Rice presented is not only valuable for the impact studies of climate change, but also favorable to provide a methodology for reference in crop model applications to the other regional studies.

Linking a farmer crop selection model(FCS) with an agronomic model(EPIC) to simulate cropping pattern in Northeast China

In this paper, authors established a farmer crop selection model（FCS） for the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang of the Northeast China. With linking to the environmental policy integrated climate model（EPIC）, the simulated results of FCS model for maize, rice and soybean were spatialized with 1 km×1 km grids to obtain cropping pattern. The reference map of spatial distribution for the three staple crops acquired by remote sensing imageries was applied to validate the simulated cropping pattern. The results showed that（1） the total simulation accuracy for the study area was 78.62%, which proved simulation method was applicable and feasible;（2） simulation accuracy for Jilin Province was the highest among the three provinces with a rate of 82.45% since its simple cropping system and not complex topography;（3） simulation accuracy for maize was the best among the three staple crops with a ratio of 81.14% because the study area is very suitable for maize growth. We hope this study could provide the reference for cropping pattern forecasting and decision-making.

Calibration and validation of SiBcrop Model for simulating LAI and surface heat fluxes of winter wheat in the North China Plain

The accurate representation of surface characteristic is an important process to simulate surface energy and water flux in land-atmosphere boundary layer.Coupling crop growth model in land surface model is an important method to accurately express the surface characteristics and biophysical processes in farmland.However,the previous work mainly focused on crops in single cropping system,less work was done in multiple cropping systems.This article described how to modify the sub-model in the SiBcrop to realize the accuracy simulation of leaf area index(LAI),latent heat flux(LHF)and sensible heat flux(SHF)of winter wheat growing in double cropping system in the North China Plain(NCP).The seeding date of winter wheat was firstly reset according to the actual growing environment in the NCP.The phenophases,LAI and heat fluxes in 2004–2006 at Yucheng Station,Shandong Province,China were used to calibrate the model.The validations of LHF and SHF were based on the measurements at Yucheng Station in 2007–2010 and at Guantao Station,Hebei Province,China in 2009–2010.The results showed the significant accuracy of the calibrated model in simulating these variables,with which the R2,root mean square error(RMSE)and index of agreement(IOA)between simulated and observed variables were obviously improved than the original code.The sensitivities of the above variables to seeding date were also displayed to further explain the simulation error of the SiBcrop Model.Overall,the research results indicated the modified SiBcrop Model can be applied to simulate the growth and flux process of winter wheat growing in double cropping system in the NCP.

A simulation of winter wheat crop responses to irrigation management using CERES-Wheat model in the North China Plain

To improve efficiency in the use of water resources in water-limited environments such as the North China Plain（NCP）, where winter wheat is a major and groundwater-consuming crop, the application of water-saving irrigation strategies must be considered as a method for the sustainable development of water resources. The initial objective of this study was to evaluate and validate the ability of the CERES-Wheat model simulation to predict the winter wheat grain yield, biomass yield and water use efficiency（WUE） responses to different irrigation management methods in the NCP. The results from evaluation and validation analyses were compared to observed data from 8 field experiments, and the results indicated that the model can accurately predict these parameters. The modified CERES-Wheat model was then used to simulate the development and growth of winter wheat under different irrigation treatments ranging from rainfed to four irrigation applications（full irrigation） using historical weather data from crop seasons over 33 years（1981–2014）. The data were classified into three types according to seasonal precipitation： 〈100 mm, 100–140 mm, and 〉140 mm. Our results showed that the grain and biomass yield, harvest index（HI） and WUE responses to irrigation management were influenced by precipitation among years, whereby yield increased with higher precipitation. Scenario simulation analysis also showed that two irrigation applications of 75 mm each at the jointing stage and anthesis stage（T3） resulted in the highest grain yield and WUE among the irrigation treatments. Meanwhile, productivity in this treatment remained stable through different precipitation levels among years. One irrigation at the jointing stage（T1） improved grain yield compared to the rainfed treatment and resulted in yield values near those of T3, especially when precipitation was higher. These results indicate that T3 is the most suitable irrigation strategy under variable precipitation regimes for stable yield of winter wheat with maximum water savings in the NCP. The application of one irrigation at the jointing stage may also serve as an alternative irrigation strategy for further reducing irrigation for sustainable water resources management in this area.

A Methodology for Estimating Leaf Area Index by Assimilating Remote Sensing Data into Crop Model Based on Temporal and Spatial Knowledge

In this paper,a methodology for Leaf Area Index(LAI) estimating was proposed by assimilating remote sensed data into crop model based on temporal and spatial knowledge.Firstly,sensitive parameters of crop model were calibrated by Shuffled Complex Evolution method developed at the University of Arizona(SCE-UA) optimization method based on phenological information,which is called temporal knowledge.The calibrated crop model will be used as the forecast operator.Then,the Taylor′s mean value theorem was applied to extracting spatial information from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) multi-scale data,which was used to calibrate the LAI inversion results by A two-layer Canopy Reflectance Model(ACRM) model.The calibrated LAI result was used as the observation operator.Finally,an Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF) was used to assimilate MODIS data into crop model.The results showed that the method could significantly improve the estimation accuracy of LAI and the simulated curves of LAI more conform to the crop growth situation closely comparing with MODIS LAI products.The root mean square error(RMSE) of LAI calculated by assimilation is 0.9185 which is reduced by 58.7% compared with that by simulation(0.3795),and before and after assimilation the mean error is reduced by 92.6% which is from 0.3563 to 0.0265.All these experiments indicated that the methodology proposed in this paper is reasonable and accurate for estimating crop LAI.

Evaluation of global gridded crop models in simulating sugarcane yield in China

中国是全球第三大甘蔗生产国,中国甘蔗产量模拟可服务于全球食糖和乙醇的生产和贸易.全球格点作物模式CLM5-crop和LPJmL已实现对甘蔗的模拟,但它们在中国的模拟能力未知.本文评估结果表明:两个模式均严重低估了甘蔗产量,模拟均不足观测的1/4.CLM5-crop能有技巧地模拟产量的空间分布特征,而LPJmL不能.两个模式均不能合理模拟产量的年际变化,且低估了产量的上升趋势.模式低估甘蔗产量的部分原因是模式假设收割的是甘蔗的穗而非茎.

Introducing a drought index to a crop model can help to reduce the gap between the simulated and statistical yield

A well-established and pre-calibrated crop model can normally represent the overall characteristics of crop growth and yield.However,it can hardly include all relevant factors that affect the yield,and usually overestimates the crop yield when extreme weather conditions occur.In this study,the authors first introduced a drought index(the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)into a process-based crop model(the Agro-C model).Then,the authors evaluated the model’s performance in simulating the historical crop yields in a double cropping system in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China,by comparing the model simulations to the statistical records.The results showed that the adjusted Agro-C model significantly improved its performance in simulating the yields of both maize and wheat as affected by drought events,compared with its original version.It can be concluded that incorporating a drought index into a crop model is feasible and can facilitate closing the gap between simulated and statistical yields.

DYNAMIC MODEL OF CROP GROWTH SYSTEM AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF CROP GROWTH PROCESS UNDER THE MULTI-ENVIRONMENT EXTERNAL FORCE ACTION

According to the biomechanic theory and method, the dynamic mechanism of crop growth under the external force action of multi_environment factors (light, temperature,soil and nutrients etc.) was comprehensively explored.Continuous_time Markov(CTM) approach was adopted to build the dynamic model of the crop growth system and the simulated numerical method. The growth rate responses to the variation of the external force and the change of biomass saturation value were studied. The crop grew in the semiarid area was taken as an example to carry out the numerical simulation analysis, therefore the results provide the quantity basis for the field management. Comparing the dynamic model with the other plant growth model, the superiority of the former is that it displays multi_dimension of resource utilization by means of combining macroscopic with microcosmic and reveals the process of resource transition. The simulation method of crop growth system is advanced and manipulated. A real simulation result is well identical with field observational results.