The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)is a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system due to its fundamental role in heat distribution,carbon and oxygen transport,and the weather.Other climate com...The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)is a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system due to its fundamental role in heat distribution,carbon and oxygen transport,and the weather.Other climate components,such as the atmosphere and sea ice,influence the AMOC.Evaluating the physical mechanisms of those interactions is paramount to increasing knowledge about AMOC’s functioning.In this study,the authors used outputs from the Community Earth System Model version 2 and observational data to investigate changes in theAMOC and the associated physical processes.Two DECK experiments were evaluated:piControl and 1pctCO_(2),with an annual increase of 1%of atmospheric CO_(2).The analysis revealed a significant decrease in the AMOC,associated with changes in mixed layer depth and buoyancy in high latitudes of the North Atlantic,resulting in the shutdown of deep convection and potentially affecting the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water.A vital aspect observed in this study is the association between increased runoff and reduced water evaporation,giving rise to a positive feedback process.Consequently,the rates of freshwater spreading have intensified during this period,which could lead to an accelerated disruption of the AMOC beyond the projections of existing models.展开更多
主要评估了美国国家大气研究中心的NCAR CESM(Community Earth System Model,NCAR)和中国科学院的CAS ESM(Earth System Model,Chinese Academy of Sciences)两个地球系统模式对亚洲东部夏季气候态的模拟性能。使用NCAR CESM和CAS ESM...主要评估了美国国家大气研究中心的NCAR CESM(Community Earth System Model,NCAR)和中国科学院的CAS ESM(Earth System Model,Chinese Academy of Sciences)两个地球系统模式对亚洲东部夏季气候态的模拟性能。使用NCAR CESM和CAS ESM各两种不同的水平分辨率,一共进行了4组长达19年(1998~2016年)的数值积分试验,并通过对2 m气温、降水强度和降水日变化等的分析,比较了这两个模式在亚洲东部的模拟性能。结果表明,CAS ESM和NCAR CESM均能模拟出夏季2 m气温和降水强度的大尺度分布特征,但整体上模拟得到的地表面气温偏暖、降水强度偏弱。对于降水日变化而言,观测的日降水峰值在陆地上主要发生在下午到傍晚时段,在海洋上则出现在午夜到凌晨时段。两组低分辨率试验模拟的陆地降水峰值出现过早,且无法模拟出四川盆地的夜间降水峰值和部分海洋地区凌晨或上午的降水峰值。提高分辨率对模式的模拟性能有显著的提升作用。高分辨率下,NCAR CESM和CAS ESM对陆地和海洋的降水日变化模拟性能都明显提高。对降水日变化的定量化分析表明,高分辨率CAS ESM模式对整个亚洲东部降水日变化的模拟最优。目前模式对海陆风的模拟还不太理想,未来要进一步提高模式模拟性能,需要重点完善与气温、降水过程相关的物理参数化方案。展开更多
热带海表温度(SST)模拟偏差是困扰海气耦合模式发展的经典问题之一,其原因仍不完全清晰。针对海气耦合模式CESM1(Community Earth System Model version 1)模拟的热带印度洋SST偏差,我设计了单独大气-陆面模式、单独海洋-海冰模式以及...热带海表温度(SST)模拟偏差是困扰海气耦合模式发展的经典问题之一,其原因仍不完全清晰。针对海气耦合模式CESM1(Community Earth System Model version 1)模拟的热带印度洋SST偏差,我设计了单独大气-陆面模式、单独海洋-海冰模式以及海气耦合模式等一系列数值实验。在此基础上,采用大气-陆面模式和海洋-海冰模式隐式(implicit)SST偏差的分析方法,诊断了CESM1模拟的热带印度洋SST偏差的来源,并分析了大气模式和海洋模式中影响热带印度洋上层海温模拟的主要因素。通过分析热带印度洋不同地区SST的模拟偏差来源,发现耦合模式CESM1中孟加拉湾SST模拟偏冷主要是由海洋-海冰模式中过强的垂直混合、平流作用等海洋动力偏差引起的。在阿拉伯海和赤道西印度洋,过多的潜热释放导致SST降低,大气-陆面模式模拟误差是这两个海域SST冷偏差的主要来源。对于赤道中印度洋,潜热通量偏差和垂直混合、平流作用等模拟误差共同影响上层海水温度,潜热释放偏少、海水垂直混合偏弱以及经向平流向南输送过多暖水使耦合模式模拟的赤道中印度洋SST出现暖偏差,而在赤道东印度洋,模拟的SST偏冷是由大气-陆面模式中短波辐射偏少和海洋-海冰模式中海水垂直混合过强引起的,潜热通量偏差影响较小。分析表明,耦合模式中海气相互作用只影响SST模拟偏差的大小,但不是引起SST偏差的根本原因。展开更多
利用CMAP逐月降水资料和欧洲天气预报中心ERA-interim的再分析资料,分析了CESM模式对东亚地区降水及夏季环流的模拟性能。结果表明:(1)CESM可以模拟出东亚地区大气环流、地表温度、水汽输送及降水随季节南北进退等主要特征。(2)该模式...利用CMAP逐月降水资料和欧洲天气预报中心ERA-interim的再分析资料,分析了CESM模式对东亚地区降水及夏季环流的模拟性能。结果表明:(1)CESM可以模拟出东亚地区大气环流、地表温度、水汽输送及降水随季节南北进退等主要特征。(2)该模式降水模拟结果与CMAP资料的对比显示,冬季降水的空间偏差主要表现为青藏高原南侧模拟降水偏多,而青藏高原西北部和日本海附近降水模拟偏少。夏季降水的空间偏差主要表现为陆地偏多,偏差最显著的区域位于青藏高原南侧,而海洋上偏少。降水偏差在季节变化上主要体现为低纬度地区雨带出现时间偏早,中高纬度地区出现时间偏晚且持续时间偏长。(3)模式模拟的夏季地表温度与ERA再分析资料相比在陆地模拟的结果明显偏低,在海洋上模拟的偏高。模式模拟的夏季500 h Pa西太副高较ERA再分析结果异常偏西至我国的江淮地区且强度偏强,这与模式模拟的夏季江淮地区降水较CMAP结果偏少密切相关。(4)夏季经向垂直环流的对比显示,模式模拟结果与ERA再分析结果的主要差异出现在青藏高原及其附近地区,模拟结果在高原的南北侧均出现明显的异常垂直环流,南侧的异常垂直环流伸展高度高,范围狭窄,这与模式模拟的夏季降水在高原南侧明显偏多有关。展开更多
Using the low-resolution （T31, equivalent to 3.75°× 3.75°） version of the Community Earth System Model （CESM） from the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）, a global climate simulation ...Using the low-resolution （T31, equivalent to 3.75°× 3.75°） version of the Community Earth System Model （CESM） from the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）, a global climate simulation was carried out with fixed external forcing factors （1850 Common Era. （C.E.） conditions） for the past 2000 years. Based on the simulated results, spatio-temporal structures of surface air temperature, precipitation and internal variability, such as the E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscilla- tion （AMO）, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, and the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）, were compared with reanalysis datasets to evaluate the model performance. The results are as follows： 1） CESM showed a good performance in the long-term simulation and no significant climate drift over the past 2000 years; 2） climatological patterns of global and regional climate changes simulated by the CESM were reasonable compared with the reanalysis datasets; and 3） the CESM simulated internal natural variability of the climate system performs very well. The model not only reproduced the periodicity of ENSO, AMO and PDO events but also the 3-8 years vari- ability of the ENSO. The spatial distribution of the CESM-simulated NAO was also similar to the observed. However, because of weaker total irradiation and greenhouse gas concentration forcing in the simulation than the present, the model performances had some differences from the observations. Generally, the CESM showed a good performance in simulating the global climate and internal natu- ral variability of the climate system. This paves the way for other forced climate simulations for the past 2000 years by using the CESM.展开更多
This case study examined how well downscaling of Community Earth System Model (CESM) data can reproduce climatological conditions relevant for summer (JJA) air quality in Glacier Bay National Park. Climatology was det...This case study examined how well downscaling of Community Earth System Model (CESM) data can reproduce climatological conditions relevant for summer (JJA) air quality in Glacier Bay National Park. Climatology was determined from the meteorological results obtained by the Weather Research and Forecasting model inline coupled with chemistry (WRF-chem) when driven with CESM data of 2006-2012. The climatology of this experiment (EXP) was evaluated by climatology from gridded blended sea-wind speeds, CRU data, and 42 surface meteorology sites. The quality relative to known performance was assessed by comparison to climatology determined from WRF-chem control simulations driven with FNL analysis data (CON) in forecast mode. Compared to observations, the thermodynamic and dynamic performances of EXP showed similar shortcomings (dampened diurnal temperature range, overestimation of wind speed over land) as CON. Over water EXP wind-speed climatology JJA bias (simulated minus observed) was -0.7 m/s. With respect to the CRU data EXP biases in JJA 2m temperature, diurnal temperature range, relative humidity and accumulated precipitation were -1.1 K, -4.9 K, 13%, and 110 mm, respectively. The slightly warmer atmosphere in EXP compensated for deficiencies in the cloud schemes leading to better results for the number of wet days and accumulated precipitation than in CON. Downscaling captured known mesoscale responses important for regional climate in a similar way as CON. When using CESM forcing, lateral boundary effects expanded spatially farther into the domain than known for forcing by analysis data. Overall, climatologies obtained from downscaling for Southeast Alaska had similar skill than those derived from forecasts driven by analysis data.展开更多
基金This work was possible through the financing of PEC-20480 Project between Royal Dutch Shell(Shell)and the Laboratório de Métodos Computacionais em Engenharia(LAMCE)and through the doctoral fellowship funding by CNPq for Elisa Passos Case number 141819/2016-2the postdoctoral fellowship funding by FAPERJ E 10/2020-Edital Inteligência Artificial Case Number E-26/203.327/2022-Enrollment No.Scholarship 2015.08297.7 for Lívia Sancho.
文摘The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)is a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system due to its fundamental role in heat distribution,carbon and oxygen transport,and the weather.Other climate components,such as the atmosphere and sea ice,influence the AMOC.Evaluating the physical mechanisms of those interactions is paramount to increasing knowledge about AMOC’s functioning.In this study,the authors used outputs from the Community Earth System Model version 2 and observational data to investigate changes in theAMOC and the associated physical processes.Two DECK experiments were evaluated:piControl and 1pctCO_(2),with an annual increase of 1%of atmospheric CO_(2).The analysis revealed a significant decrease in the AMOC,associated with changes in mixed layer depth and buoyancy in high latitudes of the North Atlantic,resulting in the shutdown of deep convection and potentially affecting the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water.A vital aspect observed in this study is the association between increased runoff and reduced water evaporation,giving rise to a positive feedback process.Consequently,the rates of freshwater spreading have intensified during this period,which could lead to an accelerated disruption of the AMOC beyond the projections of existing models.
文摘主要评估了美国国家大气研究中心的NCAR CESM(Community Earth System Model,NCAR)和中国科学院的CAS ESM(Earth System Model,Chinese Academy of Sciences)两个地球系统模式对亚洲东部夏季气候态的模拟性能。使用NCAR CESM和CAS ESM各两种不同的水平分辨率,一共进行了4组长达19年(1998~2016年)的数值积分试验,并通过对2 m气温、降水强度和降水日变化等的分析,比较了这两个模式在亚洲东部的模拟性能。结果表明,CAS ESM和NCAR CESM均能模拟出夏季2 m气温和降水强度的大尺度分布特征,但整体上模拟得到的地表面气温偏暖、降水强度偏弱。对于降水日变化而言,观测的日降水峰值在陆地上主要发生在下午到傍晚时段,在海洋上则出现在午夜到凌晨时段。两组低分辨率试验模拟的陆地降水峰值出现过早,且无法模拟出四川盆地的夜间降水峰值和部分海洋地区凌晨或上午的降水峰值。提高分辨率对模式的模拟性能有显著的提升作用。高分辨率下,NCAR CESM和CAS ESM对陆地和海洋的降水日变化模拟性能都明显提高。对降水日变化的定量化分析表明,高分辨率CAS ESM模式对整个亚洲东部降水日变化的模拟最优。目前模式对海陆风的模拟还不太理想,未来要进一步提高模式模拟性能,需要重点完善与气温、降水过程相关的物理参数化方案。
文摘热带海表温度(SST)模拟偏差是困扰海气耦合模式发展的经典问题之一,其原因仍不完全清晰。针对海气耦合模式CESM1(Community Earth System Model version 1)模拟的热带印度洋SST偏差,我设计了单独大气-陆面模式、单独海洋-海冰模式以及海气耦合模式等一系列数值实验。在此基础上,采用大气-陆面模式和海洋-海冰模式隐式(implicit)SST偏差的分析方法,诊断了CESM1模拟的热带印度洋SST偏差的来源,并分析了大气模式和海洋模式中影响热带印度洋上层海温模拟的主要因素。通过分析热带印度洋不同地区SST的模拟偏差来源,发现耦合模式CESM1中孟加拉湾SST模拟偏冷主要是由海洋-海冰模式中过强的垂直混合、平流作用等海洋动力偏差引起的。在阿拉伯海和赤道西印度洋,过多的潜热释放导致SST降低,大气-陆面模式模拟误差是这两个海域SST冷偏差的主要来源。对于赤道中印度洋,潜热通量偏差和垂直混合、平流作用等模拟误差共同影响上层海水温度,潜热释放偏少、海水垂直混合偏弱以及经向平流向南输送过多暖水使耦合模式模拟的赤道中印度洋SST出现暖偏差,而在赤道东印度洋,模拟的SST偏冷是由大气-陆面模式中短波辐射偏少和海洋-海冰模式中海水垂直混合过强引起的,潜热通量偏差影响较小。分析表明,耦合模式中海气相互作用只影响SST模拟偏差的大小,但不是引起SST偏差的根本原因。
文摘利用CMAP逐月降水资料和欧洲天气预报中心ERA-interim的再分析资料,分析了CESM模式对东亚地区降水及夏季环流的模拟性能。结果表明:(1)CESM可以模拟出东亚地区大气环流、地表温度、水汽输送及降水随季节南北进退等主要特征。(2)该模式降水模拟结果与CMAP资料的对比显示,冬季降水的空间偏差主要表现为青藏高原南侧模拟降水偏多,而青藏高原西北部和日本海附近降水模拟偏少。夏季降水的空间偏差主要表现为陆地偏多,偏差最显著的区域位于青藏高原南侧,而海洋上偏少。降水偏差在季节变化上主要体现为低纬度地区雨带出现时间偏早,中高纬度地区出现时间偏晚且持续时间偏长。(3)模式模拟的夏季地表温度与ERA再分析资料相比在陆地模拟的结果明显偏低,在海洋上模拟的偏高。模式模拟的夏季500 h Pa西太副高较ERA再分析结果异常偏西至我国的江淮地区且强度偏强,这与模式模拟的夏季江淮地区降水较CMAP结果偏少密切相关。(4)夏季经向垂直环流的对比显示,模式模拟结果与ERA再分析结果的主要差异出现在青藏高原及其附近地区,模拟结果在高原的南北侧均出现明显的异常垂直环流,南侧的异常垂直环流伸展高度高,范围狭窄,这与模式模拟的夏季降水在高原南侧明显偏多有关。
基金Under the auspices of National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB950102)Strategic and Special Frontier Project of Science and Technology of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA05080800)+3 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41371209,41420104002)Special Research Fund for Doctoral Discipline of Higher Education Institutions(No.20133207110015)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(No.14KJA170002)Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(No.164320H101)
文摘Using the low-resolution （T31, equivalent to 3.75°× 3.75°） version of the Community Earth System Model （CESM） from the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）, a global climate simulation was carried out with fixed external forcing factors （1850 Common Era. （C.E.） conditions） for the past 2000 years. Based on the simulated results, spatio-temporal structures of surface air temperature, precipitation and internal variability, such as the E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscilla- tion （AMO）, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, and the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）, were compared with reanalysis datasets to evaluate the model performance. The results are as follows： 1） CESM showed a good performance in the long-term simulation and no significant climate drift over the past 2000 years; 2） climatological patterns of global and regional climate changes simulated by the CESM were reasonable compared with the reanalysis datasets; and 3） the CESM simulated internal natural variability of the climate system performs very well. The model not only reproduced the periodicity of ENSO, AMO and PDO events but also the 3-8 years vari- ability of the ENSO. The spatial distribution of the CESM-simulated NAO was also similar to the observed. However, because of weaker total irradiation and greenhouse gas concentration forcing in the simulation than the present, the model performances had some differences from the observations. Generally, the CESM showed a good performance in simulating the global climate and internal natu- ral variability of the climate system. This paves the way for other forced climate simulations for the past 2000 years by using the CESM.
基金the University of Alaska Fairbanks’Geophysical Institute’s supercomupting center for computational and the National Parks Service for financial support(contract P11AT30883/P11AC90465).
文摘This case study examined how well downscaling of Community Earth System Model (CESM) data can reproduce climatological conditions relevant for summer (JJA) air quality in Glacier Bay National Park. Climatology was determined from the meteorological results obtained by the Weather Research and Forecasting model inline coupled with chemistry (WRF-chem) when driven with CESM data of 2006-2012. The climatology of this experiment (EXP) was evaluated by climatology from gridded blended sea-wind speeds, CRU data, and 42 surface meteorology sites. The quality relative to known performance was assessed by comparison to climatology determined from WRF-chem control simulations driven with FNL analysis data (CON) in forecast mode. Compared to observations, the thermodynamic and dynamic performances of EXP showed similar shortcomings (dampened diurnal temperature range, overestimation of wind speed over land) as CON. Over water EXP wind-speed climatology JJA bias (simulated minus observed) was -0.7 m/s. With respect to the CRU data EXP biases in JJA 2m temperature, diurnal temperature range, relative humidity and accumulated precipitation were -1.1 K, -4.9 K, 13%, and 110 mm, respectively. The slightly warmer atmosphere in EXP compensated for deficiencies in the cloud schemes leading to better results for the number of wet days and accumulated precipitation than in CON. Downscaling captured known mesoscale responses important for regional climate in a similar way as CON. When using CESM forcing, lateral boundary effects expanded spatially farther into the domain than known for forcing by analysis data. Overall, climatologies obtained from downscaling for Southeast Alaska had similar skill than those derived from forecasts driven by analysis data.
