以天山西部山区喀什河流域为典型研究区,基于1990-2000年的水文气象站点实测资料、2005年喀什河流域遥测降水数据及各时间段对应的CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)再分析数据,通过实测站与其最近CFSR站多年月平均降水的比值,C...以天山西部山区喀什河流域为典型研究区,基于1990-2000年的水文气象站点实测资料、2005年喀什河流域遥测降水数据及各时间段对应的CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)再分析数据,通过实测站与其最近CFSR站多年月平均降水的比值,CFSR站点处2005年的年降水量与同期遥测年降水量的比值,以及基于实测站点降水数据和各CFSR站点与实测站点最近的CFSR站点的空间关系3种方法对CFSR降水数据进行订正。借助VIC模型,分析不同订正方法下研究区径流的模拟效果。降水时间序列分析结果表明,CFSR降水数据能够较好地在时间和空间上反应喀什河流域内月降水的变化情况。径流模拟结果表明,(1)CFSR降水数据的不同订正方法对径流结果影响较为明显;(2)基于实测站点降水数据以及各CFSR站点与实测站点最近的CFSR站点的空间关系订正的所有CFSR降水,在径流模拟中表现最好,模型率定期和验证期的模型效率系数均在0.80以上,多年径流相对误差在15.0%以内。该订正方法不仅考虑了降水在时间维度上的变化,还考虑其在地理空间维度的变化,较其它两种方法在径流模拟中具有更好的应用前景。展开更多
In recent years, global reanalysis weather data has been widely used in hydrological modeling around the world, but the results of simulations vary greatly. To consider the applicability of Climate Forecast System Rea...In recent years, global reanalysis weather data has been widely used in hydrological modeling around the world, but the results of simulations vary greatly. To consider the applicability of Climate Forecast System Reanalysis（CFSR） data in the hydrologic simulation of watersheds, the Bahe River Basin was used as a case study. Two types of weather data（conventional weather data and CFSR weather data） were considered to establish a Soil and Water Assessment Tool（SWAT） model, which was used to simulate runoff from 2001 to 2012 in the basin at annual and monthly scales. The effect of both datasets on the simulation was assessed using regression analysis, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency（NSE）, and Percent Bias（PBIAS）. A CFSR weather data correction method was proposed. The main results were as follows.（1） The CFSR climate data was applicable for hydrologic simulation in the Bahe River Basin（R^2 of the simulated results above 0.50, NSE above 0.33, and ｜PBIAS｜ below 14.8. Although the quality of the CFSR weather data is not perfect, it achieved a satisfactory hydrological simulation after rainfall data correction.（2） The simulated streamflow using the CFSR data was higher than the observed streamflow, which was likely because the estimation of daily rainfall data by CFSR weather data resulted in more rainy days and stronger rainfall intensity than was actually observed. Therefore, the data simulated a higher base flow and flood peak discharge in terms of the water balance, except for some individual years.（3） The relation between the CFSR rainfall data（x） and the observed rainfall data（y） could berepresented by a power exponent equation： y=1.4789x0.8875（R2=0.98,P〈0.001）. There was a slight variation between the fitted equations for each station. The equation provides a theoretical basis for the correction of CFSR rainfall data.展开更多
文摘以天山西部山区喀什河流域为典型研究区,基于1990-2000年的水文气象站点实测资料、2005年喀什河流域遥测降水数据及各时间段对应的CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)再分析数据,通过实测站与其最近CFSR站多年月平均降水的比值,CFSR站点处2005年的年降水量与同期遥测年降水量的比值,以及基于实测站点降水数据和各CFSR站点与实测站点最近的CFSR站点的空间关系3种方法对CFSR降水数据进行订正。借助VIC模型,分析不同订正方法下研究区径流的模拟效果。降水时间序列分析结果表明,CFSR降水数据能够较好地在时间和空间上反应喀什河流域内月降水的变化情况。径流模拟结果表明,(1)CFSR降水数据的不同订正方法对径流结果影响较为明显;(2)基于实测站点降水数据以及各CFSR站点与实测站点最近的CFSR站点的空间关系订正的所有CFSR降水,在径流模拟中表现最好,模型率定期和验证期的模型效率系数均在0.80以上,多年径流相对误差在15.0%以内。该订正方法不仅考虑了降水在时间维度上的变化,还考虑其在地理空间维度的变化,较其它两种方法在径流模拟中具有更好的应用前景。
基金International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.131551KYSB20160002 National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41401602+2 种基金 Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China,No.2014JQ2-4021 Key Scientific and Technological Innovation Team Plan of Shaanxi Province,No.2014KCT-27 Graduate Student Innovation Project of Northwest University,No.YZZ15011
文摘In recent years, global reanalysis weather data has been widely used in hydrological modeling around the world, but the results of simulations vary greatly. To consider the applicability of Climate Forecast System Reanalysis（CFSR） data in the hydrologic simulation of watersheds, the Bahe River Basin was used as a case study. Two types of weather data（conventional weather data and CFSR weather data） were considered to establish a Soil and Water Assessment Tool（SWAT） model, which was used to simulate runoff from 2001 to 2012 in the basin at annual and monthly scales. The effect of both datasets on the simulation was assessed using regression analysis, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency（NSE）, and Percent Bias（PBIAS）. A CFSR weather data correction method was proposed. The main results were as follows.（1） The CFSR climate data was applicable for hydrologic simulation in the Bahe River Basin（R^2 of the simulated results above 0.50, NSE above 0.33, and ｜PBIAS｜ below 14.8. Although the quality of the CFSR weather data is not perfect, it achieved a satisfactory hydrological simulation after rainfall data correction.（2） The simulated streamflow using the CFSR data was higher than the observed streamflow, which was likely because the estimation of daily rainfall data by CFSR weather data resulted in more rainy days and stronger rainfall intensity than was actually observed. Therefore, the data simulated a higher base flow and flood peak discharge in terms of the water balance, except for some individual years.（3） The relation between the CFSR rainfall data（x） and the observed rainfall data（y） could berepresented by a power exponent equation： y=1.4789x0.8875（R2=0.98,P〈0.001）. There was a slight variation between the fitted equations for each station. The equation provides a theoretical basis for the correction of CFSR rainfall data.
