An Analysis of the Possible Economic Effects of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland Using the SAM and CGE Models

This is a conceptual paper which was motivated by the fact that Swaziland does not have a Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） in place and as such there are many shocks that affect that country＇s economy but which cannot be analyzed effectively. Most notable of this is the economic effects of the HIV/AIDS scourge that is affecting that country of which it has been difficult to determine the effects it has had on the economy in an objective manner. This paper will highlight the usefulness of the SAM and Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） models in analyzing the possible economic effects of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland. The absence of a SAM for Swaziland means that empirical analysis of the effect of the disease on the economy could not be undertaken, but it is hoped that the arguments presented here will contribute to the use of these methods as tools for analyzing various shocks in an economy. The paper is divided into 4 parts. Part 1 is a brief introduction into the Swaziland economy, part 2 is a brief description of the SAM, description of CGE Modeling and a detailed application of the SAM data into the CGE modeling framework, part 3 introduces the HIV/AIDS situation in Swaziland and models its possible effects using a macroeconomic SAM and part 4 is the discussion and conclusion. The main aim of the paper then is to lay the basic framework to help small developing countries develop practical SAMs that will become an important tool in analyzing the performances of their economies.

Integrated Water and CGE Model of the Impacts of Water Policy on the Beijing's Economy and Output

The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water policy.The stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following aspects.First,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different ways.There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy. Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water price.For basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity tendency.As to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology.Waste water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water policy.Second,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration.The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water industry.So as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.

The Impact of Strengthening Environmental Regulatory Policy on China's Economy——Evaluation Based on CGE Model

This paper has established a computable general equilibrium(CGE) model taking into account the costs of environmental regulation to evaluate the overall impact of enhanced environmental regulation on China's economy.The results demonstrate that if environmental regulation is strengthened to the point at which industrial waste discharge meets the current legal standard,economic growth rate will decrease by approximately1%,employment in the manufacturing sector will decrease by approximately 1.8%,and the total value of exports will decrease by approximately 1.7%.The report also shows that enhanced environmental regulation has impacted each region of China differently.This paper argues that during the implementation of environmental regulation,policymakers will need to have a complete understanding of potential regional and structural impacts.China's environmental regulation policy should be implemented gradually,beginning with key polluting industries and those with low correlation to economic growth.Additionally,this paper proposes that environmental regulation should be carried out during periods of economic growth.

Economic Implications of CO2 Emission Reduction in Japan Applying a Dynamic CGE Model with Endogenous Technological Change： Use of Emission Permit Revenue

This study analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of a climate change measure in Japan using a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with technological change as an endogenous variable. In this way, a comprehensive analysis of the relationships between climate change and its measures, technology, and economy has been done. The model uses technological change as the accumulation of knowledge capital that is derived from research and development investment. The study investigates the impacts of a climate change measure considering the use of emission permit revenue and technological change induced by the policy implementation in the Japanese economy. Simulation results show that there is compatibility between CO2 emission reduction and positive effects on GDP that depends on the ways of the revenue use and technological change induced by emission reduction. However, it is not possible to find the ways to realize positive effects on both GDP and welfare simultaneously in the study. The sensitivity analysis for the elasticity of substitution between knowledge capital and other inputs also confirms the obtained results.

CGE Simulation for Levying Carbon Tax in China and International Experience of Levying Carbon Tax

Levying carbon tax is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the environment.The author firstly reviewed some relevant empirical studies on carbon tax both home and abroad,and then established the CGE model and simulated levying carbon tax in China.The study found that levying carbon tax would have little impact on China's economy:in a short-term,China's GDP might decrease by 0.51%,while in a long-term it might decrease by 0.08%;however,the carbon dioxide emissions would be substantially reduced.Meanwhile,levying carbon tax has some negative impact on the output of each industry in the very economic structure;of this,the mineral extractive industries would be influenced the most.Then the author summarized experience of levying carbon tax in foreign countries.

Economic Implications of Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change： An Analysis Using the AIM/CGE [Global] Model

The purpose of this study is to analyze economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gases emissions significantly. A large amount of emissions reductions are required throughout this century to avoid dangerous climate change, and understanding the economic consequences under such situations is important and meaningful. The AIM/CGE [Global] model, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model on a global scale, is applied to analyze carbon prices and changes in GDP when implementing five policy scenarios represented by emissions pathways, respectively. As a result of the analysis, higher carbon prices and larger decreases in GDP compared to the baseline emissions scenario are observed when emissions are reduced more deeply. However, such GDP losses are rather small and insignificant compared to the GDP growth observed throughout the century. These results suggest that although it is challenging to reduce emissions until the level to avoid dangerous climate change, there is a sufficient possibility to achieve it from economic perspectives.

Scheme of Constructing CGE Model of China's Direct Grain Subsidy Policy

This paper introduces the model of China's direct grain subsidy policy, adopts computable general equilibrium (CGE) theory, and advances the scheme of constructing the model of China's direct grain subsidy policy. On the basis of some assumptions, such as conforming to the complete competition of market, inexistence of move of capital and labor forces among countries, unchanged exchange rate and incomplete substitution, and the main body of behavior comprising representative households, producers, local government and central government, the model established in this paper includes production module and demand module. Moreover, the model takes into account equilibrium structure, the definition of profiting and macro condition for closure, the related coefficients this CGE model needs include Armingtion substitution elasticity of intermediate composite product, investment composite product and consumption composite product between import and domestic production; substitution elasticity among production factors; conversion elasticity of total sales between domestic absorption and export; elasticity of residents' expenditure; elasticity of price; elasticity of export demand; the relative share of all sectors in capital stock. This paper also points out the advantages and limitations of CGE model in analyzing direct grain subsidy policy.

Simulation Analysis of Macroeconomic Policy Orientations' Effects on the Industrial Economy——Based on Dynamic CGE Model

There are three different orientations of the macroeconomic policies,namely,factor-expansion,prudent-continuation and structural-adjustment.The paper uses the dynamic CGE model to simulate the effects of the three different orientations on the economy,and arrives at the following conclusions:while the factor-expansion policies can lead to growth of economic output,they also result in the further imbalance in the industrial structure and the "crowding-out effect" on the private investment.In addition,such growth is unsustainable in the long run;the growth of the industrial economy will decline rapidly to a lower level after reaching a certain high level.The prudent-continuation policies refer to the continuation of the current policies that sustain the current trends of the industrial economy,and such policies reduce the growth of the industrial economy to a lower level in the long run.The structural-adjustment policies reduce the economic output at the current stage;however,it can bring a gradual improvement of industrial structure and a balance of the supply and demand.In the long run,the optimized structure will improve the total factor productivity(TFP) and the production-possibility frontier,and thereby realize a longterm steady and rapid growth of the industrial economy.Four policy recommendations are proposed based on the simulation of the models,including taking the structural adjustment as the fundamental orientation of macroeconomic policies,lowering the "floor level" of economic growth with macro regulation,giving play to the fundamental role of market mechanism in structural adjustment and increasing the role of TFP in the growth of the industrial economy.

Health and Economic Impacts of Air Pollution in China: A Comparison of the General Equilibrium Approach and Human Capital Approach

In China, combustion of fossil fuels and biomass has produced serious air pollution that does harm to human health. Based on dose-response relationships derived from epidemiological studies, the authors calculated the number of deaths and people with health problems which were thought to be attributable to China＇s air pollution in the year of 2000. In order to estimate the corresponding economic impacts from the national point of view, the general equilibrium approach was selected as an analysis tool for this study. A computable general equilibrium （CGE） model was constructed involving 39 sectors and 32 commodities. The human capital approach （HCA） was also used for comparison. The economic burden of disease for people estimated by HCA was equivalent to 1.26‰ （ranging from 0.44‰ to 1.84‰） of China＇s gross domestic product （GDP）. China＇s GDP loss estimated by the general equilibrium approach reached 0.38‰ （ranging from 0.16‰ to 0.51‰）. The difference between the two approaches and the implications of the results were discussed.

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on CO_2 Mitigation and Economic Growth in China

In this paper we examine the impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation effects and economic growth in China by using a dynamic energy-environment-economy computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. The results show that 30, 60, and 90 RMB per ton CO2 of carbon tax rate will lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions by 4.52%, 8.59%, and 12.26%, as well as a decline in the GDP by 0.11%, 0.25%, and 0.39% in 2020, respectively, if carbon tax revenues are collected by the government. Moreover, with energy efficiency improvements the CO2 emission per unit of GDP will equally drop by 34.79%, 37.49%, and 39.92% in 2020, respectively. Negative impacts on sectors and households will be alleviated if carbon tax revenues are returned to these sectors and households.

Rebound effect and its decomposition-an analysis based on energy types in China

Rebound effect derived from energy efficiency improvement has been widely invested.However,most of studies focus on the rebound effect of the energy composite level and neither distinguish nor compare different energy types.We compare the differences in energy saving and energy rebound between primary and secondary energy sources,and further decompose the rebound effect into production rebound part and final demand component.To do so,we add a module for rebound into a comparative state China-CGE model.We design and test two simulation scenarios using the model.In Scenario 1,all production sectors' energy efficiency of using primary energy increases by 5%.In Scenario 2,all production sectors' energy efficiency of using secondary energy increases by 5%.The results show that Scenario 2 leads to more GDP growth and more energy saving.Our scenarios show rebound effects range between 9.6% and 27.9%,and in general are higher when energy efficiency of using primary energy sources is improved.Our decomposition analysis shows that improving energy efficiency in production sectors would stimulates energy use of final demand.Indeed,the consumption side has significant contribution to rebound in secondary energy use,especially in crude oil and gas.This study reveals that improving efficiency of using secondary energy is better than improving that of primary energy,both in terms of economic impact and energy rebound.And complementary policies that prevent energy services prices from falling too much can be adopted to reduce rebound.Controlling residential energy use could also be effective in reducing rebound,this has particular implication to economies in which residential energy consumption are far from saturation.

Environment Implications of China's WTO Accession

China's WTO accession will have important environmental implications. This article aims at providing environmental analysis of the impact of China's accession to the WTO, based on its final offer for WTO accession and a 53-sector, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China. We try to provide some empirical evidences for policy makers to evaluate the effects of China's WTO accession from environmental prospective.

Impacts of Total Energy Consumption Control and Energy Quota Allocation on China′s Regional Economy Based on A 30-region Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.

Principal Features of Building Social Accounts Matrix and Improving Statistical Database for Eco-countries

With common borders of the population, total area, and GDP （PPP-based） of Economic Cooperation Organization （ECO） member states are estimated as 416 million persons, 7.9 million m2, and US$2.7 trillion respectively （2010 data）. Although heterogeneous in the extent, there is economic development, overall, with serious energy and transport-transit relations among countries that is reflected in growing trade turnover year-by-year. However, there are still rather unused resources and capacity in such areas of cooperation among countries as exchange of energy, transport services, agricultural and industrial goods, use of opportunities for tourism, promoting investment and innovation processes and other areas. Certainly, maximum and optimal use of these resources calls for availability of analytical means capable of accounting for relations both within member states and among them. The implementation of computable general equilibrium （CGE） modeling in each member state would thus be of great significance in resolution of these problems both in terms of accounting for input-output linkages within the countries as well as enabling impact of main trading partners and goods and services among countries. The analysis carried out indicates that there are a number of problems in application of CGE model in most of the member states. As such, input-output tables are not compiled in some countries, while in others despite the fact that these tables are compiled, there are no attempts to build the model, yet in other countries, even if the CGE model is implemented, there are difficulties in taking into account the real results in the face of serious problems related to improving national accounts system database. Summarizing these problems, it is possible to conclude that to ensure the application of a CGE model,there is a great need to work out procedures of compilation of a social accounts matrix （SAM） that lies on the basis of this model, for which the relevant statistics of a member state must be improved. Considering the above-mentioned, the presented research, makes procedures and proposals on compilation of SAM, improves statistical data for researching the extent of application of CGE Model in ECO member states, and identifies the degree of availability and organization of relevant data to develop input-output tables and respective SAM.

Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China

According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided.

The uniform enterprise income tax reform in China

In China, the income tax of enterprise is very different between foreign funded enterprises and other domestic enterprises. It is believed that this discrimination is harmful to the entire economy. So there is a reform in the tax system to build a uniform enterprise income tax. This is a significant reform in China＇s tax system, so every decision about this have to count the cost and the benefit carefully. The author has introduced the Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） to simulate this new tax system and value its benefit and cost. There are two different models in the paper; they are of different assumptions and for different purposes. Model I is a static CGE model and model II is a Ramsey Dynamic model. The static model is mainly used for comparative static approach to examine how the tax reform will change the endogenous variables. According to the results of the model, more goods will be produced by both of the DFEs and FIEs after the tax reform in the medium and low tax effective tax rate situations. If the nominal tax rates decrease 24.24% （from 33% to 25%）, the enterprise income tax will only reduce 19.36% and the total tax revenue will only reduce 1.911%. The dynamic model will concentrate on the costs and benefits during the transition. From the results of the model, a lower tax rate will increase the level of investment, capital stock, capital prices, wage rate and also the growth rates through transition. If the capital tax rates are changed gradually, the fluctuating of transition will be smoothed a little.

Simulated Scenarios for China＇s Economic Growth： 2011-2030

Considering domestic and international impact on economic growth, this paper adopts a computable general equilibrium （CGE） model to simulate three scenarios for China＇s economic growth. Results indicate that during the 12^th Five-year Plan period （2011：2015）, China＇s economic growth is expected to reach 8 per cent and enjoy great potential for rapid growth in the mid- and long-term run. Future economic growth is mainly confronted by the risk of unbalanced economic development and growing resources and environmental pressures. Whether this potential is in transforming its development pattern. tapped depends on China＇s achievements

Livestock Demand, Global Land Use Changes, and Induced Greenhouse Gas Emissions

With increasing global population and income, the demand for livestock products continues to grow and is likely to grow in future as well. This raises concerns about the implications of such growth for the environment. A well-known Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE), GTAP- BIO, is used to project the growth of livestock output between 2004 and 2022 and to estimate the land use changes and associated Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Results indicate that the increased livestock output leads to considerable increase in pasture (about 45 million hectares) and decrease in forest area (about 44 million hectares) between 2004 and 2022. Estimated emissions associated with this change are about 20 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 e) during 2004-2022 or an annual average of 1.1 billion tons. Results also indicate that a significant portion of the emissions (about 11%) can be reduced if consumer preferences could be altered. In practice, this will require policy interventions that promote substitution of non-ruminant for ruminant meat products.

A General Equilibrium Model for Energy Policy Evaluation Using GTAP-E for Vietnam

In the past several years, there has been growing concern on the scarcity of energy resources, the volatility of energy prices, and the impact of energy sector on climate change. In this context, energy-environment models designed for analysis of energy systems have become more important. In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium Model （CGE） using an energy-environmental version of Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） model （known as GTAP-E） for Vietnam is presented based on the GTAP Data Base version 7. The model is developed following the original structure and the revised version of the GTAP-E model. This model is used to simulate the adoption of carbon tax for Vietnam for the base year of 2004. The economy-level and detailed sector-specific effects are also examined considering energy intensive and non-intensive sectors. Simulation results show the negative influences of different carbon tax scenarios to Vietnam＇s economy. The results would also indicate the potential of carbon taxation as a driving force for the mitigation of carbon dioxide and for new and renewable energy promotion in Vietnam. In fact, this study is the first simulation exercise of energy-environmental policy for the Vietnamese case.

The rebound effect on energy efficiency improvements in China’s transportation sector:A CGE analysis

Energy use is becoming more efficient due to technological innovations.We focused on the transportation sector in China to develop a national multisector computable general equilibrium(CGE)model for analyzing the rebound effect from an improvement of 10%in the energy efficiency.We compared the size of the energy rebound effect at both the macroeconomic and sectoral levels in different transportation modal subsectors,namely rail,road,water,and air travel.The findings showed that the magnitude of the rebound effect varies across the transportation modes.This is particularly true for the air transportation sector,which has an economy-wide rebound effect of 30.1%and an own-sector rebound effect of 74.6%because of a sharp increase in the export demand for air transport services.We also quantitatively evaluated the contribution of energy efficiency improvement in the transportation sector to China’s economic growth and carbon reductions and found a positive dividend effect on the economy as well as the environment.The modeling results suggest that improving overall transportation energy efficiency by 10%generates an economy-wide welfare gain of approximately 29 billion yuan,while 19 billion yuan are attributable to a more efficient road transportation subsector.Furthermore,to offset the effects of these mode-specific rebound effects,we simulated the effectiveness of different policies and solutions.These included economic instruments in the form of energy,environmental,and carbon taxes,household transport consumption structure adjustments,and energy structure adjustments.This study revealed that combining these sustainable development policies offers opportunities for economy-wide multisectoral improvements in energy savings,emissions reduction,and economic benefits.