An Empirical Study on the Environmental Kuznets Curve for China's Carbon Emissions:Based on Provincial Panel Data

Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory, the authors choose provincial panel data of China in 1990-2007 and adopt panel trait root and co-integration testing method to study whether there is Environmental Kuznets Curve for China＇s carbon emissions. The research results show that： carbon emissions per capita of the eastern region and the central region of China fit into Environmental Kuznets Curve, but that of the western region does not. On this basis, the authors carry out scenario analysis on the occurrence time of the inflection point of carbon emissions per capita of different regions, and describe a specific time path.

Has China-ASEAN Trade opening increased China’ s carbon emissions?

This study uses carbon emission data at the provincial level in China between 1998-2018 and the proportion of the total import and export trade between provinces and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)in GDP to measure the level of China-ASEAN trade openness.It examines the impact of China ASEAN trade openness on carbon emissions and its transmission mechanism,and selects the RMB/USD exchange rate as an instrumental variable to address the endogeneity of China-ASEAN trade openness variables.The impact of China-ASEAN trade openness on China’s environment is estimated within a two-stage least squares framework.The results show that trade openness between China and ASEAN positively impacts China’s environment and can facilitate carbon emission reduction.The scale,structural,and technology effects brought by China-ASEAN trade liberalization jointly promote China’s carbon dioxide emission reduction.An inverted“U”relationship is found between economic growth and environmental quality in China,and some provinces and municipalities have now crossed the inflection point of the curve,in which carbon emi ssions decrease with an increase in per capita wealth.

Nexus between CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth, Industrial Production, and Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam: Symmetric ARDL Approach

Vietnam’s economy has been developing strongly in recent years;however, it is necessary to examine the impact of its economic activities on environmental quality. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth, industrial production, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam. The ARDL estimation was used to process the dataset from World Bank. Results showed that economic growth, industrial production, and FDI have an impact on CO2 emissions in the long run in Vietnam. Granger Causality test also indicated that there is a causal relationship between economic growth, industrial production, and CO2 emissions in Vietnam from 1990 to 2018, at 5% statistical significance level. Proposed solutions to reduce CO2 emissions but still promote economic growth toward the green growth orientation and zero carbon target attainment are as follows: 1) reduce the use of fossil energy in industrial manufacturing and replace it by renewable energy sources;2) use modern technology for all production sectors in economy;and 3) develop a legal framework for FDI projects selection and choose foreign investors with modern and low carbon emission technology.

Research on Fossil Fuel Related Carbon Emissions Reduction Scheme Effects

There is a worldwide consensus that excessive anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will lead to global warming and other environmental problems.Supports from regulations and policies have gradually implemented in this area.As one of the most discussed policies,the carbon emissions trading schemes(CETS)has an advantage in its price-oriented and cost-saving characteristics.In this paper,we analyze and assess the CETS effect from static and dynamic perspectives by applying provincial panel data covering a period ranging from 2004 to 2017.The CETS policy has a significant constraining effect on both carbon emissions and primary energy consumption.Compared to the other two uncertainties,namely the energy price uncertainty and the technology uncertainty,the carbon permit price uncertainty has a relatively smooth impact on the economy,which is being pursued consistently by the policymakers.

Cross-country income disparity and its effect on carbon emissions

This study is motivated by the interesting relationship between the income Kuznets curve and the carbon Kuznets curve.This paper focuses on the interaction effects of income distribution and income per capita on CO_2 emissions using country group panel data over the period of 1980 to 2006 by employing fixed effects(FE),random effects(RE)and feasible generalized least squares(FGLS)estimation methods.The main findings are as follows.(1)There exists an inverted-U relationship between CO_2 emissions per capita and income per capita in all sample countries and high-income groups.(2)The cross-country income disparity has a negative effect on the average level of CO_2 emissions but a positive effect on the aggregate income elasticity of CO_2 emissions.(3)This negative effect of income disparity on the average level of CO_2emissions decreases along with the growth of per capita income.Thus,economic growth contributes to the reduction of this negative impact.

Nexus between selected macroeconomic variables and carbon emission in Kenya

Agriculture is not only influenced by climate change,but it is also one of the significant contributors of CO_(2) emission.Understanding CO_(2) emission and macroeconomic variables is critical to solving the challenges and threats faced by Kenya’s agriculture and environment.This study used the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)hypothesis and the autoregressive distribution lag model(ADLM)to analyze the relationships of CO_(2) emission with agricultural output,government direct investment,trade openness,and inflation rate in Kenya from 1983 to 2019.The study found that there exists a positive(direct)relationship between CO_(2) emission and foreign direct investment in the long run in Kenya.Additionally,CO_(2) emission and trade openness have a negative(indirect)and statistically significant relationship after the error correction term adjustment in the long run.Moreover,the relationship between CO_(2) emission and agricultural output is positive(direct)and statistically significant in the long run.There is a positive(direct)and statistically insignificant relationship between CO_(2) emission and inflation rate in the short run.Notably,the EKC hypothesis indicated that the Kenya’s economy is still on the environmental degradation trade-off through the gradual increase of both CO_(2) emission and agricultural output.Our results are important to Kenya’s economy because the derived insights will assist in relevant departments to formulate sustainable strategies to minimize environmental degradation.

贸易开放对碳排放的影响效应研究——基于2010—2020年中国省际面板数据的经验估计

在贸易开放和“双碳”目标背景下,将2010—2020年中国省际面板总体样本数据划分为贸易开放高水平地区和贸易开放低水平地区两组样本数据,通过固定效应模型和系统GMM估计方法,分别检验了两组样本中贸易开放对人均二氧化碳排放量和碳排放强度的影响。研究发现,贸易开放对中国碳排放具有显著的正向效应,贸易开放会增加碳排放,但贸易开放水平的高低对碳排放的影响存在显著差异,贸易开放低水平地区引致的碳排放要远高于贸易开放高水平地区。同时,无论是贸易开放高水平地区,还是贸易开放低水平地区,环境库兹涅茨曲线假说均存在;外商直接投资的流入有助于降低中国碳排放。研究结果对当前不同贸易开放水平地区之间如何在深化贸易开放的同时降低碳排放具有一定的政策启示。

基于EKC理论下碳排放与经济增长的二者关系研究——浙江省与安徽省的对比分析

碳排放与经济增长二者关系协调对积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和具有重大意义。论文以浙江与安徽为对比案例,从环境库兹涅茨曲线理论出发,基于脱钩模型和因素分解法,分析1997—2020年省域碳排放与经济增长的EKC曲线、脱钩态势及驱动因素。研究表明,浙江、安徽两省碳排放与经济增长EKC不符合传统倒“U”型曲线,均经历两次拐点,浙江为“N”型EKC,拐点年约为2007年和2014年,对应人均经济总量为36766元和73388元,安徽省为微弱的倒“N”型EKC曲线,拐点年约为1998年和2013年,对应人均经济总量为4452元和32733元;浙江碳排放脱钩由扩张负脱钩向强脱钩与弱脱钩方向转变,安徽以弱脱钩状态为主;能源结构与强度效应对浙江省的碳排放脱钩促进作用明显,而经济增长与能源结构效应对安徽省碳排放脱钩起负向作用。

农产品贸易自由化对农业碳排放的影响及其机制

基于中国2004—2019年非线性面板数据实证检验农产品贸易自由化对中国农业碳排放的作用机理。结果表明,规模效应、技术效应和资本劳动比率引致的结构效应提高中国农业碳排放水平,出现反常的“正技术效应”。贸易引致的结构效应降低中国农业碳排放水平。农产品贸易自由化总体上使中国农业碳排放水平上升。中国是农产品贸易的逆差国,存在农业碳排放的倒“U”型环境库兹涅茨曲线。全国农业2017年基本实现“碳达峰”。

Opportunity and shift of nitrogen use in China

It is never an easy task for China to feed 1.4 billion people with only 7%of the world's arable land.With nearly 30%of the world's nitrogen(N)fertilizer applied,China achieves high crop yields while facing N pollution result-ing from excessive N input.Here,we calculate the farmland N budget on the national and regional scales.The N use efficiency(NUE)in China increased by 28.0%during 2005-2018.This improvement is due to the reduction in fertilization and the improvement of crop management.The fragmented farmland is changing to large-scale farmland with the increase in cultivated land area per rural population and the development of agricultural mech-anization.This opportunity brings more possibilities for precision farmland management,thus further improving NUE.The goal of an NUE of 0.6 may be achieved in the 2040s based on the current development trend.This striking N use shift in China has important implications for other developing countries.

东盟国家碳排放动态演变及环境库兹涅茨曲线实证检验分析

探索东盟国家碳排放的动态演变,并分析碳排放与经济社会发展的定量关系,可为中国-东盟环境等合作提供借鉴参考。基于全球大气研究排放数据库和联合国统计数据库发布的数据,结合曼-肯德尔检验和环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)检验,分析1970—2021年东盟碳排放变化趋势和结构特征等,初步探究东盟各国碳排放达峰情况,并验证东盟国家人均国内生产总值(GDP)与人均碳排放量之间的EKC关系。结果表明,1970—2021年,东盟碳排放总量从1.22×10^(8)t增加到1.74×10^(9)t,印度尼西亚、越南和泰国等排放量居前5位的国家碳排放总量占比近90%。1970—2021年东盟电力、工业燃烧、其他、交通和建筑部门碳排放量分别增加38.0、13.6、12.7、9.1和1.9倍。电力成为东盟碳排放最大的部门,排放占比超40%。以10年为跨度,东盟及各成员国碳排放量多数情况均呈增加趋势。2010年以来的趋势分析显示,文莱和泰国碳排放或将成为东盟最早实现碳达峰的国家。除文莱外,东盟其余国家人均碳排放量与人均GDP的EKC曲线拟合程度均较高。经济社会发展对碳排放的作用表现为促进—抑制—促进,且不同国家出现的拐点值不同。因此,建议我国与东盟国家加强清洁能源电力合作,并加大环保投入、保持环境政策连续性。

河南省碳排放与经济增长分析——基于EKC模型和Tapio脱钩模型

文章利用河南省2001—2020年的相关统计数据,运用EKC模型和Tapio脱钩模型对碳排放与经济增长进行实证研究。结果显示:2001—2020年河南省碳排放与经济增长的关系符合“N”型的库兹涅茨曲线;2001—2020年地方碳排放与经济增长表现为扩张联结和弱脱钩两种状态。据此提出河南省发展低碳经济的方向与建议。

安徽省工业发展与碳排放的EKC曲线模型分析及其影响因素研究

“双碳”战略背景下,发展绿色低碳经济是大势所趋。文章运用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型以及回归分析,对安徽省2004年至2021年期间工业GDP与工业碳排放之间的关系以及安徽省工业碳排放的影响因素进行研究分析。结果得出:(1)安徽省工业GDP与工业碳排放之间存在倒U型曲线关系,即随着工业的发展,碳排放将呈现先增加再降低的趋势,即在一定阶段后,工业经济增长可以实现碳排放的减少;(2)能源消费结构的改善以及能源加工转换效率的提高对安徽省工业碳排放的降低均有着显著的正向影响。通过研究为安徽省工业的绿色发展提供了一定的理论指导。

数字经济发展水平对农业碳减排的促进效应研究

在数字经济时代,推动全产业碳减排是应对全球气候变化风险的有效举措,考察数字经济发展水平对农业碳排放的影响对中国农业实现碳中和具有前瞻性意义。基于中国内地31个省(区、市)1996—2020年的农业生产面板数据,采用排放系数法测算农业碳排放量,通过环境库兹涅茨曲线绘制与EKC检验来分析农业碳排放达峰趋势并作空间自相关性分析。利用熵值法测算各省(区、市)2011—2022年数字经济发展水平,采用空间计量模型、影响机制分析、异质性检验来研究数字经济发展水平对农业碳排放的影响。中国农业碳排放总体上于2014年实现达峰,全局Moran'sI指数波动上升,农业碳排放强度变化表现出明显局部地理空间聚集趋势,数字经济发展水平对农业碳排放强度具有平均意义上32.6%的抑制作用。提出发展生态农业和提高农村数字经济渗透率等政策建议。

基于PSO-GWO的省级能耗强度预测与碳减排潜力估算

准确预估省域节能降碳潜力是政策制定与调整的基础。针对目前省级降碳潜力估算方法仍存在难以指导实践的局限性问题,提出一种主客观相结合的新方法,构建包含经济、技术投入、规模效应3个因素的能耗强度学习曲线,并以灰狼算法改进粒子群优化算法优化拟合曲线;充分考虑碳汇技术,构建减排潜力核算框架;以S省为例,设定12种组合情景进行实证研究。结果表明,优化产业结构与调整能源结构是目前降低碳排放量、确保实现“碳达峰”目标的主要手段;零碳、负碳技术现阶段能够为减排做出较少贡献,但可促进碳达峰进程。

重庆市碳排放及主要污染物的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征研究

根据2001~2020年重庆市能源消耗和环境污染物排放数据,选取CO_(2)、工业废气、工业SO_(2)、工业废水、工业COD、工业“三废”总量和工业固废产生量等7项环境指标,利用origin2018软件建立了重庆人均GDP与环境污染水平之间的数学模型,解析了重庆环境污染物排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征(EKC)。结果表明,重庆市CO_(2)EKC和工业SO_(2)EKC符合倒“U”型曲线特征,当人均GDP达76875元,即在2020年左右重庆市碳排放量达到峰值,工业SO_(2)2006年达峰值。工业废水EKC、工业COD EKC和工业“三废”EKC具有“U”型曲线左半支特征,工业废气EKC和工业固废EKC呈“N”型曲线特征。重庆市主要环境污染物排放量逐年降低,但工业废气排放量有振荡走高趋势。

“双碳”目标下的普惠金融:作用机制与实践路径

本文聚焦普惠金融对绿色低碳发展的影响,在梳理低碳发展的实现路径及普惠金融的内涵、特点基础上,运用单部门静态分析模型与静态、动态面板数据分析模型证明基于普惠金融的环境库兹涅茨曲线现象,探讨普惠金融通过经济发展水平、技术进步、产业结构和消费端等路径对绿色低碳发展的作用,结合实践探索经验提出对策建议,为相关政策制定与机制完善提供参考。

新结构环境经济学:新框架与新见解

基于新结构经济学“一个中心三个基本点”的新视角,本文构建新结构环境经济学的新框架,并对主要的十三个领域提出新见解。就新框架而言,构建了“禀赋结构—生产结构—环境结构—上层建筑结构”的理论新框架和“双碳”战略的政策新框架。就新见解而言,从发展角度看,在不同的经济发展阶段,要素禀赋结构内生决定的最优生产结构不同,对应的最优环境结构不同,最优环境结构与最优上层建筑结构的关系也不同。从转型角度看,在要素禀赋结构内生决定的最优生产结构状态下,由于市场(政府)失灵等外生因素引致环境结构或上层建筑结构扭曲会进一步导致两者关系发生扭曲;在违背要素禀赋结构的扭曲生产结构下,特别是在重工业赶超战略导致的扭曲生产结构状态下,环境结构及其与上层建筑结构的关系均会发生扭曲,造成效率损失。

Regional inequality, spatial spillover effects, and the factors influencing city-level energy-related carbon emissions in China

Data show that carbon emissions are increasing due to human energy consumption associated with economic development. As a result, a great deal of attention has been focused on efforts to reduce this growth in carbon emissions as well as to formulate policies to address and mitigate climate change. Although the majority of previous studies have explored the driving forces underlying Chinese carbon emissions, few have been carried out at the city-level because of the limited availability of relevant energy consumption statistics. Here, we utilize spatial autocorrelation, Markov-chain transitional matrices, a dynamic panel model, and system generalized distance estimation(Sys-GMM) to empirically evaluate the key determinants of carbon emissions at the city-level based on Chinese remote sensing data collected between 1992 and 2013. We also use these data to discuss observed spatial spillover effects taking into account spatiotemporal lag and a range of different geographical and economic weighting matrices. The results of this study suggest that regional discrepancies in city-level carbon emissions have decreased over time, which are consistent with a marked spatial spillover effect, and a ‘club' agglomeration of high-emissions. The evolution of these patterns also shows obvious path dependence, while the results of panel data analysis reveal the presence of a significant U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita GDP. Data also show that per capita carbon emissions have increased in concert with economic growth in most cities, and that a high-proportion of secondary industry and extensive investment growth have also exerted significant positive effects on city-level carbon emissions across China. In contrast, rapid population agglomeration, improvements in technology, increasing trade openness, and the accessibility and density of roads have all played a role in inhibiting carbon emissions. Thus, in order to reduce emissions, the Chinese government should legislate to inhibit the effects of factors that promote the release of carbon while at the same time acting to encourage those that mitigate this process. On the basis of the analysis presented in this study, we argue that optimizing industrial structures, streamlining extensive investment, increasing the level of technology, and improving road accessibility are all effective approaches to increase energy savings and reduce carbon emissions across China.

基于一次能源的重庆市碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线研究

针对重庆市经济社会发展与碳排放现状,选取2001—2020年重庆市一次能源的消耗数据,采用IPCC给出的碳排放模型,计算了重庆市的年度碳排放总量,利用SPSS软件建立了人均GDP与碳排放之间数学模型。结果表明,重庆市碳排放量与人均GDP之间的曲线关系符合倒“U”型关系的环境库兹涅茨曲线。给出了重庆市碳排放与产业结构调整、能源产品优化及生态环境保护相互关系影响的建议。