基于第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的模式模拟数据和欧洲宇航局GlobSnow卫星遥感雪水当量(Snow Water Equivalent,SWE)资料,评估了CMIP6耦合模式对1981~2014年欧亚大陆冬季SWE的模拟能力,并应用多模式集合平均结果预估了21世纪欧亚大陆...基于第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的模式模拟数据和欧洲宇航局GlobSnow卫星遥感雪水当量(Snow Water Equivalent,SWE)资料,评估了CMIP6耦合模式对1981~2014年欧亚大陆冬季SWE的模拟能力,并应用多模式集合平均结果预估了21世纪欧亚大陆SWE的变化情况。结果表明,CMIP6耦合模式对冬季欧亚大陆中高纬度SWE空间分布具有较好的再现能力,能模拟出欧亚大陆中高纬度SWE的主要分布特征;耦合模式对SWE变化趋势及经验正交函数主要模态特征的模拟能力存在较大差异,但多模式集合能提高模式对SWE变化趋势和主要时空变化特征的模拟能力;此外,多模式集合结果对欧亚大陆冬季SWE与降水、气温的关系也有较好的再现能力。预估结果表明,21世纪欧亚大陆东北大部分地区的SWE均要高于基准期(1995~2014年),而90°E以西的欧洲大陆SWE基本上呈现减少的特征;21世纪早期,4种不同排放情景下积雪变化的差异不大,但21世纪后期积雪变化的幅度差异较大,而且排放越高积雪变化的幅度越大,模式不确定性也越大;进一步的分析表明,欧亚大陆冬季未来积雪变化特征的空间分布与全球变化背景下局地气温、降水的变化密切相关,高温高湿的条件有利于欧亚大陆东北部积雪的增多。展开更多
This work evaluates the performances of climate models in simulating the Southern Ocean(SO)sea surface temperature(SST)by a large ensemble from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMI...This work evaluates the performances of climate models in simulating the Southern Ocean(SO)sea surface temperature(SST)by a large ensemble from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6).By combining models from the same community sharing highly similar SO SST biases and eliminating the effect of global-mean biases on local SST biases,the results reveal that the ensemble-mean SO SST bias at 70°-30°S decreases from 0.38℃ in CMIP5 to 0.28℃ in CMIP6,together with increased intermodel consistency.The dominant mode of the intermodel variations in the zonal-mean SST biases is characterized as a meridional uniform warm bias pattern,explaining 79.1% of the intermodel variance and exhibiting positive principal values for most models.The ocean mixed layer heat budget further demonstrates that the SST biases at 70°-50°S primarily result from the excessive summertime heating effect from surface net heat flux.The biases in surface net heat flux south of 50°S are largely impacted by surface shortwave radiation from cloud and clear sky components at different latitudes.North of 50°S,the underestimated westerlies reduce the northward Ekman transport and hence northward cold advection in models,leading to warm SST biases year-round.In addition,the westerly biases are primarily traced back to the atmosphere-alone model simulations forced by the observed SST and sea ice.These results disclose the thermal origin at the high latitude and dynamical origin at the low latitude of the SO SST biases and underscore the significance of the deficiencies of atmospheric models in producing the SO SST biases.展开更多
Arctic warming played a dominant role in recent occurrences of extreme events over the Northern Hemisphere,but climate models cannot accurately simulate the relationship.Here a significant positive correlation(0.33-0....Arctic warming played a dominant role in recent occurrences of extreme events over the Northern Hemisphere,but climate models cannot accurately simulate the relationship.Here a significant positive correlation(0.33-0.95)between extreme precipitation and Arctic amplification(AA)is found using observations and CMIP5/6 multi-model ensembles.However,CMIP6 models are superior to CMIP5 models in simulating the temporal evolution of extreme precipitation and AA.According to 14 optimal CMIP6 models,the maximum latitude of planetary waves and the strength of Northern Hemisphere annular mode(NAM)will increase with increasing AA,contributing to increased extreme precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere.Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5,AA is expected to increase by 0.85℃ per decade while the maximum latitude of planetary waves will increase by 2.82°per decade.Additionally,the amplitude of the NAM will increase by 0.21 hPa per decade,contributing to a rise in extreme precipitation of 1.17% per decade for R95pTOT and 0.86% per decade for R99pTOT by 2100.展开更多
Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the curr...Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.展开更多
文摘基于第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的模式模拟数据和欧洲宇航局GlobSnow卫星遥感雪水当量(Snow Water Equivalent,SWE)资料,评估了CMIP6耦合模式对1981~2014年欧亚大陆冬季SWE的模拟能力,并应用多模式集合平均结果预估了21世纪欧亚大陆SWE的变化情况。结果表明,CMIP6耦合模式对冬季欧亚大陆中高纬度SWE空间分布具有较好的再现能力,能模拟出欧亚大陆中高纬度SWE的主要分布特征;耦合模式对SWE变化趋势及经验正交函数主要模态特征的模拟能力存在较大差异,但多模式集合能提高模式对SWE变化趋势和主要时空变化特征的模拟能力;此外,多模式集合结果对欧亚大陆冬季SWE与降水、气温的关系也有较好的再现能力。预估结果表明,21世纪欧亚大陆东北大部分地区的SWE均要高于基准期(1995~2014年),而90°E以西的欧洲大陆SWE基本上呈现减少的特征;21世纪早期,4种不同排放情景下积雪变化的差异不大,但21世纪后期积雪变化的幅度差异较大,而且排放越高积雪变化的幅度越大,模式不确定性也越大;进一步的分析表明,欧亚大陆冬季未来积雪变化特征的空间分布与全球变化背景下局地气温、降水的变化密切相关,高温高湿的条件有利于欧亚大陆东北部积雪的增多。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42076208,42141019,41831175 and 41706026)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFA0604600)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20211209)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Nos.B210202135 and B210201015).
文摘This work evaluates the performances of climate models in simulating the Southern Ocean(SO)sea surface temperature(SST)by a large ensemble from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6).By combining models from the same community sharing highly similar SO SST biases and eliminating the effect of global-mean biases on local SST biases,the results reveal that the ensemble-mean SO SST bias at 70°-30°S decreases from 0.38℃ in CMIP5 to 0.28℃ in CMIP6,together with increased intermodel consistency.The dominant mode of the intermodel variations in the zonal-mean SST biases is characterized as a meridional uniform warm bias pattern,explaining 79.1% of the intermodel variance and exhibiting positive principal values for most models.The ocean mixed layer heat budget further demonstrates that the SST biases at 70°-50°S primarily result from the excessive summertime heating effect from surface net heat flux.The biases in surface net heat flux south of 50°S are largely impacted by surface shortwave radiation from cloud and clear sky components at different latitudes.North of 50°S,the underestimated westerlies reduce the northward Ekman transport and hence northward cold advection in models,leading to warm SST biases year-round.In addition,the westerly biases are primarily traced back to the atmosphere-alone model simulations forced by the observed SST and sea ice.These results disclose the thermal origin at the high latitude and dynamical origin at the low latitude of the SO SST biases and underscore the significance of the deficiencies of atmospheric models in producing the SO SST biases.
基金This work was supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(42025102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975157)+1 种基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2021M701522)Gansu Provincial Natural Science Foundation(21ZDKA0017).
文摘Arctic warming played a dominant role in recent occurrences of extreme events over the Northern Hemisphere,but climate models cannot accurately simulate the relationship.Here a significant positive correlation(0.33-0.95)between extreme precipitation and Arctic amplification(AA)is found using observations and CMIP5/6 multi-model ensembles.However,CMIP6 models are superior to CMIP5 models in simulating the temporal evolution of extreme precipitation and AA.According to 14 optimal CMIP6 models,the maximum latitude of planetary waves and the strength of Northern Hemisphere annular mode(NAM)will increase with increasing AA,contributing to increased extreme precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere.Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5,AA is expected to increase by 0.85℃ per decade while the maximum latitude of planetary waves will increase by 2.82°per decade.Additionally,the amplitude of the NAM will increase by 0.21 hPa per decade,contributing to a rise in extreme precipitation of 1.17% per decade for R95pTOT and 0.86% per decade for R99pTOT by 2100.
基金supported by Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0606501)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42075037)+1 种基金Key Laboratory Open Research Program of Xinjiang Science and Technology Department (Grant No. 2022D04009)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility” (EarthLab)。
文摘Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.
