Modeling some long-term implications of CO_2 fertilization for global forests and forest industries

Background： This paper explored the long-term, ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO2 fertilization on the global forest sector. Based on the findings of Norby et al. （PNAS 2005, 102（50）） about forest response to elevated [CO2]. Methods： Forest productivity was increased in the Global Forest Products Model （GFPM） in proportion to the rising [CO2] projected in the IPCC scenario A1B, A2, and 132. Projections of the forest area and forest stock and of the production, consumption, prices, and trade of products ranging from fuelwood to paper and paperboard were obtained with the GFPM for each scenario, with and without CO2 fertilization beginning in 2011 and up to 2065. Results： CO2 fertilization increased wood supply, leading to lower wood prices which in turn induced modest lower prices of end products and higher global consumption. However, production and value added in industries decreased in some regions due to the relative competitive advantages and to the varying regional effects of CO2 fertilization. Conclusion： The main effect of CO2 fertilization was to raise the level of the world forest stock in 2065 by 9 to 10 % for scenarios A2 and B2 and by 20 % for scenario A1B. The rise in forest stock induced by fertilization was in part counteracted by its stimulation of the wood supply which resulted in lower wood prices and increased harvests.

Sensitivity of the Carbon Storage of Potential Vegetation to Historical Climate Variability and CO_2 in Continental China

The interest in the national levels of the terrestrial carbon sink and its spatial and temporal variability with the climate and CO2 concentrations has been increasing. How the climate and the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the last century affect the carbon storage in continental China was investigated in this study by using the Modified Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model （M-SDGVM）. The estimates of the M-SDGVM indicated that during the past 100 years a combination of increasing CO2 with historical temperature and precipitation variability in continental China have caused the total vegetation carbon storage to increase by 2.04 Pg C, with 2.07 Pg C gained in the vegetation biomass but 0.03 Pg C lost from the organic soil carbon matter. The increasing CO2 concentration in the 20th century is primarily responsible for the increase of the total potential vegetation carbon. These factorial experiments show that temperature variability alone decreases the total carbon storage by 1.36 Pg C and precipitation variability alone causes a loss of 1.99 Pg C. The effect of the increasing CO2 concentration alone increased the total carbon storage in the potential vegetation of China by 3.22 Pg C over the past 100 years. With the changing of the climate, the CO2 fertilization on China＇s ecosystems is the result of the enhanced net biome production （NBP）, which is caused by a greater stimulation of the gross primary production （GPP） than the total soil-vegetation respiration. Our study also shows notable interannual and decadal variations in the net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems in China due to the historical climate variability.