Daily rolling estimation of carbon emission cost of coal-fired units considering long-cycle interactive operation simulation of carbon-electricity market

The high overlap of participants in the carbon emissions trading and electricity markets couples the operations of the two markets.The carbon emission cost(CEC)of coal-fired units becomes part of the power generation cost through market coupling.The accuracy of CEC calculation affects the clearing capacity of coal-fired units in the electric power market.Study of carbon–electricity market interaction and CEC calculations is still in its initial stages.This study analyzes the impact of carbon emissions trading and compliance on the operation of the electric power market and defines the cost transmission mode between the carbon emissions trading and electric power markets.A long-period interactive operation simulation mechanism for the carbon–electricity market is established,and operation and trading models of the carbon emissions trading market and electric power market are established.A daily rolling estimation method for the CEC of coal-fired units is proposed,along with the CEC per unit electric quantity of the coal-fired units.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified through an example simulation,and the factors influencing the CEC are analyzed.

Estimate of China's energy carbon emissions peak and analysis on electric power carbon emissions

China＇s energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions： 1） China＇s gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030; 2） coal＇s share of the energy consumption is 61% in 2020 and 55% in 2030; 3） non-fossil energy＇s share increases from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2030; 4） through 2030, China＇s GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%; 5） the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average; and 6） the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%. China＇s electricity generating capacity would be 1,990 GW, with 8,600 TW h of power generation output in 2020. Of that output 66% would be from coal, 5% from gas, and 29% from non-fossil energy. By 2030, electricity generating capacity would reach 3,170 GW with 11,900 TW h of power generation output. Of that output, 56% would be from coal, 6% from gas, and 37% from non-fossil energy. From 2020 to 2030, CO2 emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption, and rela- tively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units. During 2020--2030, the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in China＇s energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points. Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118% of the 2020 level in 2030, the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use. This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak, including energy system optimization, green-coal-fired electricity generation, and demand side management.

Research on low-carbon development of electric power industry:from the perspectives of public policy

It is a fundamental way to achieve sustainable development and inclusive growth that China takes the low-carbon development path.And low-carbon development is an effective way to respond to many threats,including global climate anomalies,environmental degradation,and energy shortage.Low-carbon economy is policy economy to a large extent.Although the external environment demands low-carbon development of electric power industry,enterprises lack intrinsic motivation.Electric power industry is the pillar industry of China,and is one of the key industries for China's low-carbon development.The government needs to ensure its dominant position in the low-carbon development of electric power industry,and reform the government performance management system and promote the planning and management of electric power industry through appropriate public policy,in order to adjust the structure of the electric power industry and take a low-carbon development road with Chinese characteristics.

Impact of Electric Vehicles on a Carbon Constrained Power System—A Post 2020 Case Study

Electric vehicles (EVs) offer great potential to move from fossil fuel dependency in transport once some of the technical barriers related to battery reliability and grid integration are resolved. The European Union has set a target to achieve a 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 relative to 2005 levels. This target is binding in all the European Union member states. If electric vehicle issues are overcome then the challenge is to use as much renewable energy as possible to achieve this target. In this paper, the impacts of electric vehicle charged in the all-Ireland single wholesale electricity market after the 2020 deadline passes is investigated using a power system dispatch model. For the purpose of this work it is assumed that a 10% electric vehicle target in the Republic of Ireland is not achieved, but instead 8% is reached by 2025 considering the slow market uptake of electric vehicles. Our experimental study shows that the increasing penetration of EVs could contribute to approach the target of the EU and Ireland government on emissions reduction, regardless of different charging scenarios. Furthermore, among various charging scenarios, the off-peak charging is the best approach, contributing 2.07% to the target of 10% reduction of Greenhouse gas emissions by 2025.

Technical and Economic Index System for CO_2 Emission Reduction in China's Power Industry

The main technic and economic indices for carbon dioxide emission reduction of Chinese electric power industry are designed systematically in this paper.According to quantitative calculation and influential factor analysis on the carbon dioxide emission reduction of the industry from 1978 to 2009,the author estimates and calculates the relevant indices during the 12 th Five-Year Plan period and in 2020.Finally the author analyzes the relationship and difference between the conventional technical and economic indices for electric power planning and the new index system for the low carbon economy development.

Evaluation of greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of a demand–response solution:a carbon handprint case study of a virtual power plant

The transition towards zero-carbon energy production is necessary to limit global warming.Smart energy systems have facilitated the control of demand-side resources to maintain the stability of the power grid and to provide balancing power for increasing renewable energy production.Virtual power plants are examples of demand–response solutions,which may also enable greenhouse gas(GHG)emission reductions due to the lower need for fossil-based balancing energy in the grid and the increased share of renewables.The aim of this study is to show how potential GHG emission reductions can be assessed through the carbon handprint approach for a virtual power plant(VPP)in a grid balancing market in Finland.According to our results,VPP can reduce the hourly based GHG emissions in the studied Finnish grid systems compared with the balancing power without the VPP.Typical energy sources used for the balance power are hydropower and fossil fuels.The reduction potential of GHG emissions varies from 68%to 98%depending on the share of the used energy source for the power balancing,thus VPPs have the potential to significantly reduce GHG emissions of electricity production and hence help mitigate climate change.

碳中和背景下我国电力碳排放水平分析

电力低碳化转型对我国实现碳中和目标具有全局性战略意义。在总结我国近10年电力低碳化发展历程的基础上,以人口、城市化、经济总量与经济结构为边界条件和驱动力,分析预测未来40年电力增长过程和阶段性发展目标;以系统安全、供需平衡为约束,分析了化石电力占比、终端电力消费比重、核电发展规模以及碳捕集、利用及封存(CCUS)等因素对碳排放水平的影响;预计电力碳排放峰值将出现在2035年前后,达到60~65亿吨,随后逐年降低,到2060年降至10亿吨以内,辅以CCUS技术,可实现电力零排放。最后,针对需求持续增长与低碳转型长期并存的矛盾,提出未来电力发展须以安全供给为前提,优先开发可再生能源电力、多能发展、更大范围多能互补协调开发和互补运行的建议。

不同碳减排政策交互影响下发电企业交易策略

在双碳目标和电力系统转型背景下,发电企业的交易策略会发生重要转变。基于可再生能源配额制的实施,综合考虑碳排放权市场和绿证市场,探究了发电企业参与电力市场的最优决策。首先搭建了在多政策情形下市场主体参与交易的市场架构,理清各市场中的供求关系。随后建立发电企业利润函数,以发电企业利润最大化为目标,并分别在非合作博弈和合作博弈两种情况下,建立发电企业的最优生产交易模型。最后通过算例分析检验该交易模型,为发电企业在多种政策影响下参加电力市场交易提供依据。

基于LMDI和系统聚类的电力行业碳排放影响因素分析

电力行业作为直接使用一次能源的最大部门,是落实我国碳减排目标的重点行业。为厘清电力行业碳排放的主要驱动或抑制来源,论文构建了LMDI模型,从国家及省域两个层面对2006—2020年电力行业碳排放的影响因素进行了分解。研究结果表明,从国家及省域两个层面来看,经济发展效应均为电力碳排放的主要促进因素,火电燃料转化效应和产业结构效应均为电力碳排放的抑制因素,电源结构效应、工业电耗强度效应在全国层面为电力碳排放的抑制因素,但在各省份中的影响效果及程度各有不同。论文以主要抑制因素为变量,利用系统聚类法将30个省份划分为六大区域,针对各区域影响因素的作用效果提出了因地制宜的减排政策。

基于绿电和自愿减排量交易的园区低碳电力运营优化

为保证园区电力运营经济性,提高清洁电能的使用比例,文章提出了一种基于绿电和自愿减排量交易的园区低碳电力运营优化模型。该模型综合考虑了绿电和火电的购电成本、光伏发电成本及自愿减排量收益,以总运营成本最小为目标函数,结合随机概率约束,分中长期、日前和实时三阶段对绿电、火电电量以及光伏发电量进行优化。以南京市某企业园区的数据为基础,在自愿减排量价格合理的前提下,该优化模型可小幅降低园区总运营成本,并且显著提高了清洁电能的使用比例和园区应对扰动的能力。另外,就自愿减排量价格以及置信度取值对优化结果的影响进行了分析。

电力系统关键碳排放节点辨识

为提高电力系统关键碳排放节点辨识的准确性,从碳排放流分析法中选取节点碳势、碳流率通量、负荷碳流率与机组注入碳流率指标,基于复杂网络理论与节点碳排放特征提出改进度、改进平衡度、改进介数与改进聚类系数指标。利用熵权-逼近于理想解的排序技术综合评价不同节点碳排放重要度,在此基础上,建立电力系统两阶段辨识模型用于高碳节点辨识:第一阶段的模型对关键碳排放负荷节点进行辨识,第二阶段的模型对关键碳排放电源节点进行辨识,最终得到包含关键碳排放负荷节点与电源节点的电力系统简化拓扑结构。IEEE118节点系统与某地区实际电网的仿真结果表明,所提方法可有效选取电力系统高碳节点。

基于荷-储碳流模型的电力系统双层优化调度

为减少高耗能机组出力,同时增加风电消纳能力,考虑负荷和储能两类灵活调用资源,提出基于荷-储碳放流模型的电力系统双层经济低碳优化调度方法。基于电力系统碳排放流理论,分别建立负荷和储能设备的碳排放流模型;设计考虑荷-储协同优化的低碳调度策略,在负荷侧建立基于负荷节点碳势的电-碳耦合价格需求响应模型,同时鉴于荷侧降碳调节的局限性,在储能侧建立基于碳流模型的低碳调度策略,实现荷-储协同低碳调度策略;考虑经济性和低碳性,建立包含上层经济调度、下层低碳调度的双层优化调度模型。通过改进IEEE-14节点系统对优化调度方法进行仿真验证,结果表明:提出的优化调度方法在保证经济性的同时,减少了弃风,并降低了高耗能机组出力,从而有效降低了全系统的碳排放。

双碳目标约束下电力行业低碳转型的制度门槛效应研究

电力行业低碳转型不仅关系本行业碳达峰、碳中和目标的达成,也影响着中国总体碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现,对于促进经济社会低碳转型具有十分重要的现实意义。本文采用中国省级面板数据实证检验了碳排放规制对电力行业低碳转型的影响效果。研究发现,碳排放规制促进了电力行业低碳转型,并且通过了稳健性检验。受财政分权程度与市场化程度影响,碳排放规制对中国电力行业低碳转型具有门槛效应。随着财政分权程度的提升,碳排放规制对电力行业低碳转型促进作用呈现边际递减趋势。而随着市场化程度的提升,碳排放规制对电力行业低碳转型促进作用呈现边际递增趋势。本文为“双碳目标”约束下,加快推进电力行业低碳转型提供了经验证据和政策启示。

考虑碳排放的电动汽车与光伏协同的调度策略

从负荷聚合商角度考虑,通过提高其运营负荷中电动汽车充电负荷与光伏的协同性,可以实现聚合商对光伏的及时消纳,降低碳排放水平。首先,结合光伏出力特点与需求响应形式提出两种电动汽车调度策略:“绿电”收费策略与“绿电”补贴策略。“绿电”收费策略即依据光伏出力情况,制定出高、中、低三档的充电价格引导电动汽车有序充电;“绿电”补贴策略是在“绿电”收费策略的基础上,对各时段的充电价格给予不同额度的补贴,进一步提高电动汽车响应积极性。通过将碳排放水平纳入经济性目标建立包含售电收益、服务费收益以及碳收益的综合收益最大的目标函数,并运用遗传算法进行优化求解。仿真结果表明,所提策略有效提高了电动汽车与光伏的协同性,实现了负荷聚合商的增收减排。

园区受端新型电力系统电力电量再平衡方法

我国工业园区电能消耗占据了较高的比例,针对依托新型电力系统促进工业园区绿色低碳发展的需要,提出了一种面向工业园区受端新型电力系统的电力电量再平衡方法。首先,开展电力和电量需求预测并进行电力电量初平衡;然后,基于受端源网荷储协同作用并充分考虑园区节能、电能替代、各类分布式电源、储能和需求响应能力的作用进行电力电量再平衡,由此确定园区年度外调电和区内自产电的比例,进一步建立包含低碳效应和电力系统规模变化在内的量化指标评价体系,对电力电量再平衡带来的变配电容量缩减规模和降碳效用进行评价。以我国南方某工业园区新型电力系统的电力电量再平衡为例对以上方法进行了验证,结果表明:该园区2030年变配电规划容量可缩减10.1%,用电综合碳排放因子由0.60 kg/(kW·h)降至0.54 kg/(kW·h);2060年变配电规划容量可缩减9.57%,电能替代实现减碳5.85万t/a,可为受端新型电力系统的电力电量平衡提供有力的理论支撑。

“双碳”下多因素影响垃圾发电布局分析

为了解我国垃圾焚烧发电产业发展趋势,对全国31个省、直辖市、自治区的垃圾焚烧处理现状和发展需求进行了数据分析。研究表明:2000年以来,垃圾焚烧产业迅速发展,垃圾焚烧量与垃圾焚烧厂数量均大幅提高;随着各省不断加快“双碳”行动,垃圾焚烧事业面临发展机遇,同时,不同地区应根据其自身情况制定政策;综合考虑各方面因素,长江沿线地区及东北部分地区为最适宜发展地区。本研究是基于我国垃圾焚烧发电产业的整体现状、各地区的经济发展、垃圾处置和控碳需求基础上的综合研究结果,可以为未来垃圾焚烧产业发展布局提供参考依据。

新型电力系统中火电机组运营智慧决策系统

火电机组目前面对电力中长期合约市场、现货市场、辅助服务调峰调频市场,民用供热及工业供热等多种电热产品售卖途径,需要根据市场交易机制、运营成本及碳排放成本,在各种市场中优化分配有限的火电机组电热产品以获取最大利润。提出了火电机组运营智慧决策系统,采用通用开发平台,考虑了实时热电成本分摊、实时热电转换比、实时平衡利润比等,该智慧决策系统可以帮助火电企业实现实时的经营核算,并给出各级市场最优组合竞价策略及提供机组最佳运行方式。

计及电量交易信息的用电碳计量方法

充分挖掘电碳耦合价值,构建电碳协同市场是实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的重要抓手。电碳信息的耦合依赖一套合理、有效的用电碳计量体系,但我国现行用电碳计量体系中尚未考虑电量交易信息的影响,不能完全厘清每个电量交易行为背后蕴含的碳排放责任。针对此问题,该文从碳排放流理论出发,提出一套计及电量交易行为的用电碳计量新方法。首先,根据碳排放流理论的计算特性,针对有损网络建立其无损等效网络模型;之后,将交易电量和非交易流电量拆解开来,并分别根据其电量来源独立核算其产生的对应碳排放责任。该文方法严格遵守直接和间接碳排放的总量守恒原则,能够厘清电量交易行为背后蕴含的碳排放责任转移,且能够兼顾碳排放因子的时空差异性量化需求,进而具备引导用户开展低碳需求响应的能力。基于PJM-5节点系统和我国某地市实际数据开展仿真分析,仿真结果验证该文方法的有效性。

煤电行业建设项目碳排放环境影响评价技术方法研究:以黄河流域为例

煤电行业是黄河流域内二氧化碳和大气污染物排放的主要来源,将煤电行业碳排放影响评价纳入环境影响评价体系,能够有效助推黄河流域实现减污降碳协同增效.本文以煤电行业碳排放主要影响因素为基础,设计了能够涵盖碳排放全过程的评价指标体系,并结合先进技术、标准规范要求等设定差异化评价基准,构建以约束评价为主、兼顾指导性评价的评价方法,并采用评价方法中的核心评价指标碳排放绩效,对黄河流域现役煤电机组和“十四五”期间新增煤电机组进行碳减排潜力分析.结果表明,通过优化项目设计可实现流域内现役煤电机组碳排放量下降12.7%,“十四五”期间新建煤电机组碳排放增量下降27.1%,其中新增煤电机组装机占比较高的内蒙古自治区、陕西省可实现新增煤电机组碳排放分别下降30.7%和23.0%.研究显示,黄河流域内碳减排潜力大,建议针对黄河流域内碳排放绩效水平较差的特点,从燃煤小机组淘汰、低碳清洁燃料替代等方式推动煤电行业综合治理,建立协同技术相关指标数据管理台账,出台火电行业碳排放影响评价指南,为煤电行业新增建设项目减污降碳协同增效提供有力有效的政策工具.

“双碳”背景下我国低碳电力发展研究

在“十四五”规划中提出的“碳中和”以及“碳达峰”目标对电力行业各方面的发展产生了深层次的影响,电力行业向低碳方向转型已成为主流趋势。通过阐述低碳电力体系中的低碳电厂、低碳电网、低碳能源消费以及相关评价技术,说明了该体系在节能减排、环境保护方面有着高效、清洁、可循环的低碳属性。同时,分析了国际低碳形式变化对我国的影响以及“双碳”政策具体落实过程中的相关问题,为“双碳”战略的执行以及电力行业的低碳转型提供了新的科研思路。