Country-based modelling of COVID-19 case fatality rate:A multiple regression analysis

BACKGROUND The spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 outbreak worldwide has caused concern regarding the mortality rate caused by the infection.The determinants of mortality on a global scale cannot be fully understood due to lack of information.AIM To identify key factors that may explain the variability in case lethality across countries.METHODS We identified 21 Potential risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)case fatality rate for all the countries with available data.We examined univariate relationships of each variable with case fatality rate(CFR),and all independent variables to identify candidate variables for our final multiple model.Multiple regression analysis technique was used to assess the strength of relationship.RESULTS The mean of COVID-19 mortality was 1.52±1.72%.There was a statistically significant inverse correlation between health expenditure,and number of computed tomography scanners per 1 million with CFR,and significant direct correlation was found between literacy,and air pollution with CFR.This final model can predict approximately 97%of the changes in CFR.CONCLUSION The current study recommends some new predictors explaining affect mortality rate.Thus,it could help decision-makers develop health policies to fight COVID-19.

SEIHCRD Model for COVID-19 Spread Scenarios,Disease Predictions and Estimates the Basic Reproduction Number,Case Fatality Rate,Hospital,and ICU Beds Requirement

We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy.

Case Fatality Rate of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndromes in Beijing

To describe the case fatality rate of SARS in Beijing. Methods Data of SARS cases notified from Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention （BCDC） and supplemented by other channels were collected. The data were analyzed by rate calculation. Results The case fatality rate of SARS in Beijing was 7.66%, and had an ascending trend while the age of cases was getting older, and a descending trend while the epidemic developmem. The case fatality rate in Beijing was lower than that in other main epidemic countries or regions. Conclusions The risk of death increases with the increment of age of SARS patients. Beijing is successful in controlling and treating SARS.

A Study on the Global Scenario of COVID-19 Related Case Fatality Rate, Recovery Rate and Prevalence Rate and Its Implications for India—A Record Based Retrospective Cohort Study

Importance: Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the pandemic claiming millions of lives since the first outbreak was reported in Wuhan, China during December 2019. It is thus important to make cross-country comparison of the relevant rates and understand the socio-demographic risk factors. Methods: This is a record based retrospective cohort study. Table 1 was extracted from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and from the Corona virus resource center (Table 2, Figures 1-3), Johns Hopkins University. Data for Table 1 includes all countries which reported >1000 cases and Table 2 includes 20 countries reporting the largest number of deaths. The estimation of CFR, RR and PR of the infection, and disease pattern across geographical clusters in the world is presented. Results: From Table 1, we could infer that as on 4th May 2020, COVID-19 has rapidly spread world-wide with total infections of 3,566,423 and mortality of 248,291. The maximum morbidity is in USA with 1,188,122 cases and 68,598 deaths (CFR 5.77%, RR 15% and PR 16.51%), while Spain is at the second position with 247,122 cases and 25,264 deaths (CFR 13.71%, RR 38.75%, PR 9.78%). Table 2 depicts the scenario as on 8th October 2020, where-in the highest number of confirmed cases occurred in US followed by India and Brazil (cases per million population: 23,080, 5007 & 23,872 respectively). For deaths per million population: US recorded 647, while India and Brazil recorded 77 and 708 respectively. Conclusion: Studying the distribution of relevant rates across different geographical clusters plays a major role for measuring the disease burden, which in-turn enables implementation of appropriate public healthcare measures.

High-frame-rate contrast-enhanced ultrasound findings of liver metastasis of duodenal gastrointestinal stromal tumor:A case report and literature review

BACKGROUND Liver metastasis of duodenal gastrointestinal stromal tumor(GIST)is rare.Most reports mainly focus on its treatment and approaches to surgical resection,while details on its contrast-enhanced ultrasound(CEUS)findings are lacking.The diagnosis and imaging modalities for this condition remain challenging.CASE SUMMARY A 53-year-old Chinese man presented with mild signs and symptoms of the digestive tract.He underwent routine examinations after GIST surgery.Magnetic resonance imaging showed a 2.3 cm hepatic space-occupying lesion.All the laboratory test results were within normal limits.For further diagnostic confirmation,we conducted high frame rate CEUS(H-CEUS)and found a malignant perfusion pattern.Heterogeneous concentric hyper-enhancement,earlier wash-in than the liver parenchyma,and two irregular vessel columns could be observed at the periphery of the lesion during the arterial phase.Ultrasound-guided puncture biopsy was used to confirm the diagnosis of the lesion as liver metastasis of duodenal GIST.Imatinib was prescribed after biopsy,and the patient’s clinical course was monitored.CONCLUSION H-CEUS is useful for detecting microcirculation differences,wash-in patterns,and vascular morphogenesis and diagnosing liver metastasis of duodenal GIST.

Predicting COVID-19 fatality rate based on age group using LSTM

Objective: To predict the daily incidence and fatality rates based on long short-term memory(LSTM) in 4 age groups of COVID-19 patients in Mazandaran Province, Iran.Methods: To predict the daily incidence and fatality rates by age groups, this epidemiological study was conducted based on the LSTM model. All data of COVID-19 disease were collected daily for training the LSTM model from February 22, 2020 to April 10, 2021 in the Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. We defined 4 age groups, i.e., patients under 29, between 30 and 49, between 50 and 59, and over 60 years old. Then, LSTM models were applied to predict the trend of daily incidence and fatality rates from 14 to 40 days in different age groups. The results of different methods were compared with each other.Results: This study evaluated 5 0826 patients and 5 109 deaths with COVID-19 daily in 20 cities of Mazandaran Province. Among the patients, 25 240 were females(49.7%), and 25 586 were males(50.3%). The predicted daily incidence rates on April 11, 2021 were 91.76, 155.84, 150.03, and 325.99 per 100 000 people, respectively;for the fourteenth day April 24, 2021, the predicted daily incidence rates were 35.91, 92.90, 83.74, and 225.68 in each group per 100 000 people. Furthermore, the predicted average daily incidence rates in 40 days for the 4 age groups were 34.25, 95.68, 76.43, and 210.80 per 100 000 people, and the daily fatality rates were 8.38, 4.18, 3.40, 22.53 per 100 000 people according to the established LSTM model. The findings demonstrated the daily incidence and fatality rates of 417.16 and 38.49 per 100 000 people for all age groups over the next 40 days. Conclusions: The results highlighted the proper performance of the LSTM model for predicting the daily incidence and fatality rates. It can clarify the path of spread or decline of the COVID-19 outbreak and the priority of vaccination in age groups.

No Effects of Meteorological Factors on the SARS-CoV-2 Infection Fatality Rate

Objective Previous studies have shown that meteorological factors may increase COVID-19 mortality,likely due to the increased transmission of the virus.However,this could also be related to an increased infection fatality rate(IFR).We investigated the association between meteorological factors(temperature,humidity,solar irradiance,pressure,wind,precipitation,cloud coverage)and IFR across Spanish provinces(n=52)during the first wave of the pandemic(weeks 10–16 of 2020).Methods We estimated IFR as excess deaths(the gap between observed and expected deaths,considering COVID-19-unrelated deaths prevented by lockdown measures)divided by the number of infections(SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals plus excess deaths)and conducted Spearman correlations between meteorological factors and IFR across the provinces.Results We estimated 2,418,250 infections and 43,237 deaths.The IFR was 0.03%in<50-year-old,0.22%in 50–59-year-old,0.9%in 60–69-year-old,3.3%in 70–79-year-old,12.6%in 80–89-year-old,and26.5%in≥90-year-old.We did not find statistically significant relationships between meteorological factors and adjusted IFR.However,we found strong relationships between low temperature and unadjusted IFR,likely due to Spain’s colder provinces’aging population.Conclusion The association between meteorological factors and adjusted COVID-19 IFR is unclear.Neglecting age differences or ignoring COVID-19-unrelated deaths may severely bias COVID-19 epidemiological analyses.

Unexplained elevation of erythrocyte sedimentation rate in a patient recovering from COVID-19:A case report

BACKGROUND A disease caused by a novel coronavirus virus,named coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),broke out in Wuhan,China in December 2019,and spread around the word.As of March 4,2020,93090 confirmed cases and 2984 deaths have been reported in more than 80 countries and territories.It has triggered global public health security.However,the features and prognosis of COVID-19 are incompletely understood.CASE SUMMARY We here report that the erythrocyte sedimentation rate(ESR)increased in a confirmed COVID patient.The high level of ESR sustained for a long time even after the patient recovered from COVID-19,while all results related to tumor,tuberculosis,rheumatic diseases,anemia,etc.cannot explain the abnormal elevation of ESR presented in this case.CONCLUSION Although the increased ESR cannot be explained by all existing evidence,it possibly links the abnormal pathologic change in some COVID-19 patients and negative prognosis,and provides the clue to dissect the mechanism of illness progressing in COVID-19 and its prognosis.

Severe aconite poisoning successfully treated with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation:A case report

BACKGROUND Most species of aconite contain highly toxic aconitines,the oral ingestion of which can be fatal,primarily because they cause ventricular arrhythmias.We describe a case of severe aconite poisoning that was successfully treated through venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation(VA-ECMO)and in which detailed toxicological analyses of the aconite roots and biological samples were performed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry(LC-MS/MS).CASE SUMMARY A 23-year-old male presented to the emergency room with circulatory collapse and ventricular arrhythmia after ingesting approximately half of a root labeled,“Aconitum japonicum Thunb”.Two hours after arrival,VA-ECMO was initiated as circulatory collapse became refractory to antiarrhythmics and vasopressors.Nine hours after arrival,an electrocardiogram revealed a return to sinus rhythm.The patient was weaned off VA-ECMO and the ventilator on hospital days 3 and 5,respectively.On hospital day 15,he was transferred to a psychiatric hospital.The other half of the root and his biological samples were toxicologically analyzed using LC-MS/MS,revealing 244.3 mg/kg of aconitine and 24.7 mg/kg of mesaconitine in the root.Serum on admission contained 1.50 ng/mL of aconitine.Beyond hospital day 2,neither were detected.Urine on admission showed 149.09 ng/mL of aconitine and 3.59 ng/mL of mesaconitine,but these rapidly decreased after hospital day 3.CONCLUSION The key to saving the life of a patient with severe aconite poisoning is to introduce VA-ECMO as soon as possible.

Cardiac remodeling in patients with atrial fibrillation reversing bradycardia-induced cardiomyopathy:A case report

BACKGROUND Bradycardia-induced cardiomyopathy(BIC),which is a disease resulting from bradycardia,is characterized by cardiac chamber enlargement and diminished cardiac function.The correction of bradycardia can allow for significant improvements in both cardiac function and structure;however,this disease has been infrequently documented.In this case,we conducted a longitudinal followup of a patient who had been enduring BIC for more than 40 years to heighten awareness and prompt timely diagnosis and rational intervention.CASE SUMMARY A woman who presented with postactivity fatigue and dyspnea was diagnosed with bradycardia at the age of 7.Since she had no obvious symptoms,she did not receive any treatment to improve her bradycardia during the 42-year follow-up,except for the implantation of a temporary pacemaker during labor induction surgery.As time progressed,the patient's heart gradually expanded due to her low ventricular rate,and she was diagnosed with BIC.In 2014,the patient developed atrial fibrillation,her ventricular rate gradually increased,and her heart shape gradually returned to normal.This report describes the cardiac morphological changes caused by the heart rate changes in BIC patients older than 40 years,introduces another possible outcome of BIC,and emphasizes the importance of early intervention in treating BIC.CONCLUSION BIC can induce atrial fibrillation,causing an increased ventricular rate and leading to positive cardiac remodeling.

Unexplained fetal tachycardia:A case report

BACKGROUND This study aimed to explore the possible etiology and treatment of severe fetal tachycardia in the absence of organic disease and provide a reference for clinical management of severe fetal tachycardia.CASE SUMMARY A 29-year-old pregnant woman,with a gravidity 1 parity 0,presented with a fetal heart rate(FHR)of 243 beats per minute during a routine antenatal examination at 31+2 wk of gestation.Before termination of pregnancy at 38 wk of gestation,the FHR repeatedly showed serious abnormalities,lasting more than 30 min.However,the pregnant woman and the fetus had no clinical symptoms,and repeated examination revealed no organic lesions.The mother and the baby were regularly followed up.CONCLUSION This was a case of severe fetal tachycardia with no organic lesions and management based on clinical experience.

A New Method to Predict Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate with Natural Geographical Factors and Location by Case-based Reasoning: A Case Study of China

Reference values of erythrocyte sedimentation rate(ESR)are the key to interpret ESR blood test in clinic.The common local reference ESR values are more accuracy in blood test that are established with natural geographical factors by using the multiple linear regression(MLR)model and the artificial neural network(ANN).These knowledge-based methods have limitations since the knowledge domains of ESR and natural geographical factors are limited.This paper presents a new cases-depended model to establish reference ESR values with natural geographical factors and location using case-based reasoning(CBR)since knowledge domain of ESR and geographical factors is weak.Overall 224 local normal ESR values of China that calculated from 13623 samples were obtained,and the corresponding natural geographical factors and location that include altitude,sunshine hours,relative humidity,temperature,precipitation,annual temperature range and annual average wind speed were obtained from the National Geomatics Center of China.CBR was used to predict the unseen local reference ESR values with cases.The average absolute deviation(AAD),mean square error(MSE),prediction accuracy(PA),and Pearson correlation coefficient(r)between the observed and estimated data of proposed model is 33.07%,9.02,66.93% and 0.78,which are better than those of ANN and MLR model.The results show that the proposed model provides higher prediction accuracy than those of the artificial neural network and multiple linear regression models.The predicted values are very close to the observed values.Model results show significant agreement of cases data.Consequently,the model is used to predict the unseen local reference ESR with natural geographical factors and location.In spatial,the highest ESR reference areas are distributed in the southern-western district of China that includes Sichuan,Chongqing,Guangxi and Guizhou provinces,and the reference ESR values are greater than 23 mm/60 min.The higher ESR reference values are distributed in the middle part and northern-eastern of China which include Hubei,Henan,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,and the reference ESR values are greater than 18 mm/60min.The lowest ESR reference values are distributed in the northern-western of China that includes Tibet and Xinjiang,and the reference ESR values are lower than 5 mm/60min.

干酪乳杆菌(Lactobacillus casei)FV006对发酵食品中生物胺的降解性能

为验证干酪乳杆菌(Lactobacillus casei)对生物胺的降解性能及潜在应用价值。本研究利用高效液相色谱法,探究该菌在液态培养条件下的降胺性能和应用于贵州6种市售发酵食品中的降胺效果。结果表明,在液态培养试验中该菌对组胺、亚精胺、苯乙胺、腐胺、尸胺、酪胺和色胺的降胺率分别为9.44%、23.39%、16.27%、13.68%、19.14%、18.16%和12.45%。此外,研究发现该菌对道菜中色胺的降胺率为56.68%;对豆瓣酱中尸胺、组胺和亚精胺的降胺率分别为68.06%、74.52%和85.82%;对酱油中色胺和尸胺的降胺率为66.75%%、81.53%;对泡菜中色胺的降胺率为45.74%;对鱼罐头中色胺、尸胺、组胺和亚精胺的降胺率分别为55.66%、63.92%、45.96%、52.62%;对香肠中色胺、组胺和亚精胺的降胺率分别为71.15%、56.26%、75.54%。研究还发现该菌既具有产生物胺的能力,也具有降解生物胺的能力,且对不同食品中同一种生物胺的降解具有差异性。本研究为干酪乳杆菌(Lactobacillus casei)在低胺发酵食品中的应用提供理论依据。

Subgroup comparison of COVID-19 case and mortality with associated factors in Mississippi: findings from analysis of the first four months of public data

We compared subgroup differences in COVID-19 case and mortality and investigated factors associated with case and mortality rate(MR)measured at the county level in Mississippi.Findings were based on data published by the Mississippi State Department of Health between March 11 and July 16,2020.The COVID-19 case rate and case fatality rate(CFR)differed by gender and race,while MR only differed by race.Residents aged 80 years or older and those who live in a non-metro area had a higher case rate,CFR,and MR.After controlling for selected factors,researchers found that the percent of residents who are obese,low income,or with certain chronic conditions were associated with the county COVID-19 case rate,CFR,and/or MR,though some were negatively related.The findings may help the state to identify counties with higher COVID-19 case rate,CFR,and MR based on county demographics and the degree of its chronic conditions.

Tuberculosis septic shock, an elusive pathophysiology and hurdles in management: A case report and review of literature

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is a rare etiology of the septic shock. Timely administration of the anti-microbial agents has shown mortality benefit. Prompt diagnosis and a high index of suspicion are crucial to the management. We present three cases of TBSS with poor outcome in the majority despite timely and susceptible antibiotic administration. CASE SUMMARY Sixty-seven-year-old woman with latent TB presented with fever, cough, and shortness of breath. She was promptly diagnosed with active TB and started on the appropriate anti-microbial regimen;she had a worsening clinical course with septic shock and multi-organ failure after initiation of antibiotics. Thirty-threeyear- old man immunocompromised with acquired immune deficiency syndrome presented with fever, anorexia and weight loss. He had no respiratory symptoms, and first chest X-ray was normal. He had enlarged liver, spleen and lymph nodes suspicious for lymphoma. Despite broad-spectrum antibiotics, he succumbed to refractory septic shock and multi-organ failure. It was shortly before his death that anti-TB antimicrobials were initiated based on pathology reports of bone marrow and lymph node biopsies. Forty-nine-year-old woman with asthma and latent TB admitted with cough and shortness of breath. Although Initial sputum analysis was negative, a subsequent broncho-alveolar lavage turned out to be positive for acid fast bacilli followed by initiation of susceptible ant-TB regimen. She had a downward spiral clinical course with shock, multi-organ failure and finally death. CONCLUSION Worse outcome despite timely initiation of appropriate antibiotics raises suspicion of TB immune reconstitution as a possible pathogenesis for TB septic shock.

Crizotinib-induced acute fatal liver failure in an Asian ALK-positive lung adenocarcinoma patient with liver metastasis: A case report

BACKGROUND Crizotinib-induce hepatotoxicity is rare and non-specific, and severe hepatotoxicity can develop into fatal liver failure. Herein, we report a case of fatal crizotinib-induced liver failure in a 37-year-old Asian patient.CASE SUMMARY The patient complained of dyspnea and upper abdominal pain for a week in August 2017. He was diagnosed with anaplastic lymphoma kinase-rearranged lung adenocarcinoma combined with multiple distant metastases. Crizotinib was initiated as a first-line treatment at a dosage of 250 mg twice daily. No adverse effects were seen until day 46. On day 55, he was admitted to the hospital with elevated liver enzymes aspartate aminotransferase(AST)(402 IU/L), alanine aminotransferase(ALT)(215 IU/L) and total bilirubin(145 μmol/L) and was diagnosed with crizotinib-induced fulminant liver failure. Despite crizotinib discontinuation and intensive supportive therapy, the level of AST(1075 IU/L),ALT(240 IU/L) and total bilirubin(233 μmol/L) continued to rapidly increase,and he died on day 60.CONCLUSION Physicians should be aware of the potential fatal adverse effects of crizotinib.

Kawasaki disease without changes in inflammatory biomarkers:A case report

BACKGROUND Kawasaki disease(KD)is diagnosed based on clinical features.Blood tests and other tests are auxiliary diagnostic tools.Since KD is a disease caused by arterial inflammation,many patients with KD have elevated levels of inflammatory biomarkers,such as C-reactive protein(CRP),erythrocyte sedimentation rate(ESR),and serum amyloid A protein(SAA)in blood tests.We report our experience of a patient with KD who did not have elevated levels of inflammatory biomarkers.CASE SUMMARY A 1-year-old boy presented with a 3-day history of fever.Five of the six symptoms of KD were observed,except for changes in the lips and oral cavity.Blood tests revealed no elevation in CRP,ESR,or SAA levels.Although the blood test results were atypical,the patient was diagnosed with KD based on clinical symptoms and was admitted to the hospital for treatment.The patient was administered intravenous immunoglobulin(IVIG)and aspirin.Despite commencing treatment,the fever persisted;therefore,additional IVIG was administered,the dosage of aspirin was increased,and ulinastatin was added.Three doses of IVIG were administered and the fever resolved on day 11 of KD symptoms started.Blood tests performed during hospitalization showed normal levels of inflammatory biomarkers.We examined leucine-rich alpha-2-glycoprotein 1-a protein that is elevated during the acute phase of KD.The protein levels did not increase during hospitalization.CONCLUSION This case suggests the need to identify criteria and biomarkers for detecting KD conditions that do not require KD treatment.

Evaluation of the safety and quality of day-case cataract surgery based on 4151 cases

AIM: To evaluate the safety, quality and prospects of day-case cataract surgery performed in a Jiangsu public tertiary hospital METHODS: The general and clinical data for patients who underwent day-case cataract surgery between August 1, 2014 and December 31, 2016 at this hospital were collected. The incidences of intraoperative and postoperative complications, preoperative and postoperative bestcorrected visual acuities(BCVAs), delayed discharge rate, rate of unplanned re-admission to hospital, and patient satisfaction were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 4151 patients received cataract phacoemulsification surgery to correct age-related, congenital, traumatic, or complicated cataracts. Of these, age-related cataracts were the most frequently occurring. Patient age ranged from 18 to 101 y and the vast majority of patients were between 60 and 80 years old. Of the 4151 patients, 64.73%(2687/4151) had a systemic disease. The number of patients increased over the years, with the average number of patients per month being 90.4, 124.83, and 183.42 in 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively. The average preoperative BCVA was 0.102±0.057 and average postoperative BCVAs at 1 d, 1 wk, and 1 mo post surgery were 0.453±0.264, 0.657±0.285, and 0.734±0.244, respectively. For intraoperative complications, 4.12%(171/4151) had posterior capsule rupture, 0.79%(33/4151) had iris or ciliary body injury, and 0.048%(2/4151) had suprachoroidal hemorrhage. For postoperative complications, 4.38%(182/4151) had cornea edema, 7.78%(323/4151) had intraocular hypertension, 0.096%(4/4151) had IOL toxicity syndrome, 0.28%(12/4151) had retained lens cortex, and 0.048%(2/4151) had hyphema. The delayed discharge rate was 0.82%(44/4151) and the unplanned re-admission to the hospital was 0(0/4151). The patient satisfaction rate was 91.42%(3795/4151). CONCLUSION: Day-case cataract surgery is safe and effective with good prospects for development.

Fatal cases of animal-mediated human rabies: Looking beyond sectoral prism to One Health

This issue of Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine has published a case report[1].This report detailed an atypical fatal case of fox-mediated human rabies.It once again reemphasized the importance of zoonotic disease transmission by animals(including wildlife),and a need to look introspectively in order to consider innovative solutions aimed at reducing the burden of zoonoses.Rabies continues to significantly impact human lives.