Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projec...Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.展开更多
This paper establishes the fuzzy discounted cash flow model to settle the uncertainties of the cash flow and discount rate in two-stage DCF model, to take the imprecise of the time period of the supernormal growth pha...This paper establishes the fuzzy discounted cash flow model to settle the uncertainties of the cash flow and discount rate in two-stage DCF model, to take the imprecise of the time period of the supernormal growth phase with considering the investor＇s attitude to risk. Firstly, the discount rate and the growth rate are fuzzified as triangular fuzzy numbers in this fuzzy discounted cash flow model. Then the intrinsic value of an asset can be evaluated by the arithmetic operation on interval and λ- signed distance method under the framework of DCF approach. Finally, a listed company at Shanghai Stock Exchange is analyzed as the case to demonstrate the process of stock value calculation by the fuzzy discounted cash flow model.展开更多
基金supported from the National Science and Technology Major Project under Grant No.2011ZX05030
文摘Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province （Item No： 070416276X）.
文摘This paper establishes the fuzzy discounted cash flow model to settle the uncertainties of the cash flow and discount rate in two-stage DCF model, to take the imprecise of the time period of the supernormal growth phase with considering the investor＇s attitude to risk. Firstly, the discount rate and the growth rate are fuzzified as triangular fuzzy numbers in this fuzzy discounted cash flow model. Then the intrinsic value of an asset can be evaluated by the arithmetic operation on interval and λ- signed distance method under the framework of DCF approach. Finally, a listed company at Shanghai Stock Exchange is analyzed as the case to demonstrate the process of stock value calculation by the fuzzy discounted cash flow model.
