In this paper, we are interested in exploring the dynamic causal relationships among two sets of three variables in different quarters. One set is futures sugar closing price in Zhengzhou futures exchange market （ZC...In this paper, we are interested in exploring the dynamic causal relationships among two sets of three variables in different quarters. One set is futures sugar closing price in Zhengzhou futures exchange market （ZC）, spot sugar price in Zhengzhou （ZS） and futures sugar closing price in New York futures exchange market（NC） and the other includes futures sugar opening price in Zhengzhou （ZO）, ZS and NC. For each quarter, we first use Bayesian model selection to obtain the optimal causal graph with the highest BD scores and then use Bayesian model averaging approach to explore the causal relationship between every two variables. From the real data analysis, the two conclusions almost coincide, which shows that the two methods are practical.展开更多
BACKGROUND Vitamin deficiencies are linked to various eye diseases,and the influence of vitamin D on cataract formation has been noted in prior research.However,detailed investigations into the causal relationship bet...BACKGROUND Vitamin deficiencies are linked to various eye diseases,and the influence of vitamin D on cataract formation has been noted in prior research.However,detailed investigations into the causal relationship between 25-(OH)D status and cataract development remain scarce.AIM To explore a possible causal link between cataracts and vitamin D.METHODS In this study,we explored the causal link between 25-(OH)D levels and cataract development using Mendelian randomization.Our analytical approach included inverse-variance weighting(IVW),MR-Egger,weighted median,simple mode,and weighted mode methods.The primary analyses utilized IVW with random effects,supplemented by sensitivity and heterogeneity tests using both IVW and MR-Egger.MR-Egger was also applied for pleiotropy testing.Additionally,a leave-one-out analysis helped identify potentially impactful single-nucleotide polymorphisms.RESULTS The analysis revealed a positive association between 25-(OH)D levels and the risk of developing cataracts(OR=1.11,95%CI:1.00-1.22;P=0.032).The heterogeneity test revealed that our IVW analysis exhibited minimal heterogeneity(P>0.05),and the pleiotropy test findings confirmed the absence of pleiotropy within our IVW analysis(P>0.05).Furthermore,a search of the human genotype-phenotype association database failed to identify any potentially relevant risk-factor single nucleotide polymorphisms.CONCLUSION There is a potential causal link between 25-(OH)D levels and the development of cataracts,suggesting that greater 25-(OH)D levels may be a contributing risk factor for cataract formation.Further experimental research is required to confirm these findings.展开更多
Violation of food and drug safety and other hazard crimes have the features of long latency and multiple factors. Traditional criminal law causality theory is no controversy to determine causality of criminal responsi...Violation of food and drug safety and other hazard crimes have the features of long latency and multiple factors. Traditional criminal law causality theory is no controversy to determine causality of criminal responsibility, thus it is necessary to introduce the epidemiology causality theory-it is a kind of causality theory based on epidemic diseases, and it is the high degree of probability in the determination of causality in criminal laws so as to solve the traditional attribution problem, but the theory also exists applicable restriction conditions in judicial practice.展开更多
背景:膝骨关节炎是一种常见的关节软骨及周围组织损伤的慢性炎症性疾病,而免疫细胞在膝骨关节炎免疫炎症反应中起到重要作用,但其中的具体机制仍有待深入研究。目的:采用孟德尔随机化方法来评估731种免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎风险之间...背景:膝骨关节炎是一种常见的关节软骨及周围组织损伤的慢性炎症性疾病,而免疫细胞在膝骨关节炎免疫炎症反应中起到重要作用,但其中的具体机制仍有待深入研究。目的:采用孟德尔随机化方法来评估731种免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎风险之间的潜在因果关系。方法:使用全基因组关联分析(GWAS)目录中公开获取731种免疫细胞表型的全基因组关联分析统计数据(从GCST0001391到GCST0002121)和IEUGWAS数据库中膝骨关节炎的全基因组关联分析数据(ebi-a-GCST007090)。采用逆方差加权法、MR-Egger回归法、加权中位数法、加权模型法和简单模型法来研究免疫细胞与膝骨关节炎之间的因果关系。敏感性分析用于检验孟德尔随机化分析结果是否可靠,然后以同样方法进行反向孟德尔随机化分析。结果与结论:①正向分析结果表明,共有4种免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎有显著的因果关系(FDR<0.20),其中B细胞中的CD27 on CD24+CD27+(OR=1.026,P=0.00026,Pfdr=0.18)、髓系细胞中的CD33 on CD33dim HLA DR-(OR=1.014,P=0.00050,Pfdr=0.18)以及Treg细胞中的CD45RA+CD28-CD8br%CD8br(OR=1.001,P=0.00078,Pfdr=0.18)与膝骨关节炎风险呈直接的正向因果关联;单核细胞中PDL-1 on monocyte(OR=0.952,P=0.00098,Pfdr=0.18)与膝骨关节炎风险呈直接的负向因果关联。②反向分析结果表明,当膝骨关节炎作为暴露数据时,与731种免疫细胞表型均不具有显著因果关系(FDR<0.20)。③敏感性分析结果显示:双向孟德尔随机化的Cochran’s Q检验和MR-Egger回归法结果P值均大于0.05,表明免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎之间的因果效应分析不存在显著的异质性和多效性。④上述结果证实,CD27 on CD24+CD27+,CD33 on CD33dim HLA DR-,CD45RA+CD28-CD8br%CD8br以及PDL-1 on monocyte免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎之间可能具有较为显著的潜在因果关系,这为研究膝骨关节炎的生物学机制及探索膝骨关节炎的早期防治提供有价值的线索,也为干预性药物的开发提供了新的方向。展开更多
The relationship between urbanization and economic development has become a hot topic in the scientific community due to its great practical significance,and economic and social value.However,this relationship continu...The relationship between urbanization and economic development has become a hot topic in the scientific community due to its great practical significance,and economic and social value.However,this relationship continues to change dynamically.In the new stage of urbanization,it is urgent to reveal the causal relationship quantitatively and diagnose the future direction systematically.Based on this,this paper calculates the contribution rate of China’s urbanization to economic development from 1978 to 2019 and uses the panel data cointegration test method to explore the causal relationship between urbanization and economic development in China.The study has three principal results.First,the contribution rate of urbanization to economic growth has maintained the overall growth trend from1978 to 2019,but the growth rate of urbanization’s contribution to economic growth has been relatively low since 2012.It is an important reason that the real estate sector has moved into a new stage of transformation.Second,the cointegration test shows that economic development is a significant factor in advancing urbanization and the urbanization is the product of economic development.Urbanization has a positive feedback effect on economic development,but this effect does not pass the 5%significance level test.The impulse response function shows that the impact of urbanization on economic development is relatively small and stable,indicating that it is limited that the boost of economic development by land-centered urbanization.Third,China’s urbanization and economic development have both shown rapid growth for some time,but their relationship is still the low level of coordination,which has also led to a downward trend in the contribution of new-type,people-oriented urbanization to economic growth in recent years.In the future,China’s urbanization and economy need to maintain relatively medium-low speed growth in the medium-long term,and we should boost the coordinated development of urbanization and economy from low level to high level.展开更多
China and India are the two countries with the strongest economic growth in the world. Meanwhile they consume much of the global coal to fuel their economic development. With coal burning as a major factor contributin...China and India are the two countries with the strongest economic growth in the world. Meanwhile they consume much of the global coal to fuel their economic development. With coal burning as a major factor contributing to global greenhouse gas emissions, China and India are confronted with a dilemma of economic growth and environment protection. Will coal consumption reduction cause economic shocks? Is there a causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in China and India? In this paper Granger causality tests were used to examine the relationship between coal consumption and GDP in China and India, using data for the period from 1965 to 2006. It was found that a unidirectional causality from GDP to coal consumption existed in China while a unidirectional causality from coal consumption to GDP did in India. Therefore, developing cleaner and more efficient technologies is essential to reduce their CO2 emissions to reach sustainable development.展开更多
This paper takes the basic mathematical operations required to manipulate the cognitive maps. This paper start by presenting all the values that a causal relationship can take. By the using of causal algebra, cognitiv...This paper takes the basic mathematical operations required to manipulate the cognitive maps. This paper start by presenting all the values that a causal relationship can take. By the using of causal algebra, cognitive map (CC) become not only a graphical representation of a person’s beliefs, an agent or a particular area but also can capture the causal relationships existing between the concepts of a given system in a simple manner. Cognitive maps do not use a conventional algebra;algebra causal is needed to treat.展开更多
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant(No.11371062,11671338)Beijing Center for Mathematics and Information Interdisciplinary Science and UIBE NetworkingCollaboration Center for China’s Multinational Business(No.201504YY006A)
文摘In this paper, we are interested in exploring the dynamic causal relationships among two sets of three variables in different quarters. One set is futures sugar closing price in Zhengzhou futures exchange market （ZC）, spot sugar price in Zhengzhou （ZS） and futures sugar closing price in New York futures exchange market（NC） and the other includes futures sugar opening price in Zhengzhou （ZO）, ZS and NC. For each quarter, we first use Bayesian model selection to obtain the optimal causal graph with the highest BD scores and then use Bayesian model averaging approach to explore the causal relationship between every two variables. From the real data analysis, the two conclusions almost coincide, which shows that the two methods are practical.
文摘BACKGROUND Vitamin deficiencies are linked to various eye diseases,and the influence of vitamin D on cataract formation has been noted in prior research.However,detailed investigations into the causal relationship between 25-(OH)D status and cataract development remain scarce.AIM To explore a possible causal link between cataracts and vitamin D.METHODS In this study,we explored the causal link between 25-(OH)D levels and cataract development using Mendelian randomization.Our analytical approach included inverse-variance weighting(IVW),MR-Egger,weighted median,simple mode,and weighted mode methods.The primary analyses utilized IVW with random effects,supplemented by sensitivity and heterogeneity tests using both IVW and MR-Egger.MR-Egger was also applied for pleiotropy testing.Additionally,a leave-one-out analysis helped identify potentially impactful single-nucleotide polymorphisms.RESULTS The analysis revealed a positive association between 25-(OH)D levels and the risk of developing cataracts(OR=1.11,95%CI:1.00-1.22;P=0.032).The heterogeneity test revealed that our IVW analysis exhibited minimal heterogeneity(P>0.05),and the pleiotropy test findings confirmed the absence of pleiotropy within our IVW analysis(P>0.05).Furthermore,a search of the human genotype-phenotype association database failed to identify any potentially relevant risk-factor single nucleotide polymorphisms.CONCLUSION There is a potential causal link between 25-(OH)D levels and the development of cataracts,suggesting that greater 25-(OH)D levels may be a contributing risk factor for cataract formation.Further experimental research is required to confirm these findings.
文摘Violation of food and drug safety and other hazard crimes have the features of long latency and multiple factors. Traditional criminal law causality theory is no controversy to determine causality of criminal responsibility, thus it is necessary to introduce the epidemiology causality theory-it is a kind of causality theory based on epidemic diseases, and it is the high degree of probability in the determination of causality in criminal laws so as to solve the traditional attribution problem, but the theory also exists applicable restriction conditions in judicial practice.
文摘背景:膝骨关节炎是一种常见的关节软骨及周围组织损伤的慢性炎症性疾病,而免疫细胞在膝骨关节炎免疫炎症反应中起到重要作用,但其中的具体机制仍有待深入研究。目的:采用孟德尔随机化方法来评估731种免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎风险之间的潜在因果关系。方法:使用全基因组关联分析(GWAS)目录中公开获取731种免疫细胞表型的全基因组关联分析统计数据(从GCST0001391到GCST0002121)和IEUGWAS数据库中膝骨关节炎的全基因组关联分析数据(ebi-a-GCST007090)。采用逆方差加权法、MR-Egger回归法、加权中位数法、加权模型法和简单模型法来研究免疫细胞与膝骨关节炎之间的因果关系。敏感性分析用于检验孟德尔随机化分析结果是否可靠,然后以同样方法进行反向孟德尔随机化分析。结果与结论:①正向分析结果表明,共有4种免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎有显著的因果关系(FDR<0.20),其中B细胞中的CD27 on CD24+CD27+(OR=1.026,P=0.00026,Pfdr=0.18)、髓系细胞中的CD33 on CD33dim HLA DR-(OR=1.014,P=0.00050,Pfdr=0.18)以及Treg细胞中的CD45RA+CD28-CD8br%CD8br(OR=1.001,P=0.00078,Pfdr=0.18)与膝骨关节炎风险呈直接的正向因果关联;单核细胞中PDL-1 on monocyte(OR=0.952,P=0.00098,Pfdr=0.18)与膝骨关节炎风险呈直接的负向因果关联。②反向分析结果表明,当膝骨关节炎作为暴露数据时,与731种免疫细胞表型均不具有显著因果关系(FDR<0.20)。③敏感性分析结果显示:双向孟德尔随机化的Cochran’s Q检验和MR-Egger回归法结果P值均大于0.05,表明免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎之间的因果效应分析不存在显著的异质性和多效性。④上述结果证实,CD27 on CD24+CD27+,CD33 on CD33dim HLA DR-,CD45RA+CD28-CD8br%CD8br以及PDL-1 on monocyte免疫细胞表型与膝骨关节炎之间可能具有较为显著的潜在因果关系,这为研究膝骨关节炎的生物学机制及探索膝骨关节炎的早期防治提供有价值的线索,也为干预性药物的开发提供了新的方向。
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41530634,41822104,42171204)。
文摘The relationship between urbanization and economic development has become a hot topic in the scientific community due to its great practical significance,and economic and social value.However,this relationship continues to change dynamically.In the new stage of urbanization,it is urgent to reveal the causal relationship quantitatively and diagnose the future direction systematically.Based on this,this paper calculates the contribution rate of China’s urbanization to economic development from 1978 to 2019 and uses the panel data cointegration test method to explore the causal relationship between urbanization and economic development in China.The study has three principal results.First,the contribution rate of urbanization to economic growth has maintained the overall growth trend from1978 to 2019,but the growth rate of urbanization’s contribution to economic growth has been relatively low since 2012.It is an important reason that the real estate sector has moved into a new stage of transformation.Second,the cointegration test shows that economic development is a significant factor in advancing urbanization and the urbanization is the product of economic development.Urbanization has a positive feedback effect on economic development,but this effect does not pass the 5%significance level test.The impulse response function shows that the impact of urbanization on economic development is relatively small and stable,indicating that it is limited that the boost of economic development by land-centered urbanization.Third,China’s urbanization and economic development have both shown rapid growth for some time,but their relationship is still the low level of coordination,which has also led to a downward trend in the contribution of new-type,people-oriented urbanization to economic growth in recent years.In the future,China’s urbanization and economy need to maintain relatively medium-low speed growth in the medium-long term,and we should boost the coordinated development of urbanization and economy from low level to high level.
文摘China and India are the two countries with the strongest economic growth in the world. Meanwhile they consume much of the global coal to fuel their economic development. With coal burning as a major factor contributing to global greenhouse gas emissions, China and India are confronted with a dilemma of economic growth and environment protection. Will coal consumption reduction cause economic shocks? Is there a causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in China and India? In this paper Granger causality tests were used to examine the relationship between coal consumption and GDP in China and India, using data for the period from 1965 to 2006. It was found that a unidirectional causality from GDP to coal consumption existed in China while a unidirectional causality from coal consumption to GDP did in India. Therefore, developing cleaner and more efficient technologies is essential to reduce their CO2 emissions to reach sustainable development.
文摘This paper takes the basic mathematical operations required to manipulate the cognitive maps. This paper start by presenting all the values that a causal relationship can take. By the using of causal algebra, cognitive map (CC) become not only a graphical representation of a person’s beliefs, an agent or a particular area but also can capture the causal relationships existing between the concepts of a given system in a simple manner. Cognitive maps do not use a conventional algebra;algebra causal is needed to treat.
