CAUSALITY DIAGRAM BASED SAFETY ANALYSIS OF MICRO TURBOJET ENGINE

An improved safety analysis based on the causality diagram for the complex system of micro aero-engines is presented.The study is examined by using the causality diagram in analytical failure cases due to rupture or pentration in the receiver of micro turbojet engine casing,and the comparisons are also made with the results from the traditional fault tree analysis.Experimental results show two main advantages：（1）Quantitative analysis which is more reliable for the failure analysis in jet engines can be produced by the causality diagram analysis;（2）Graphical representation of causality diagram is easier to apply in real test cases and more effective for the safety assessment.

Causality Diagram-based Scheduling Approach for Blast Furnace Gas System

Rational use of blast furnace gas(BFG) in steel industry can raise economic profit, save fossil energy resources and alleviate the environment pollution. In this paper, a causality diagram is established to describe the causal relationships among the decision objective and the variables of the scheduling process for the industrial system, based on which the total scheduling amount of the BFG system can be computed by using a causal fuzzy C-means(CFCM) clustering algorithm. In this algorithm,not only the distances among the historical samples but also the effects of different solutions on the gas tank level are considered.The scheduling solution can be determined based on the proposed causal probability of the causality diagram calculated by the total amount and the conditions of the adjustable units. The causal probability quantifies the impact of different allocation schemes of the total scheduling amount on the BFG system. An evaluation method is then proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the scheduling solutions. The experiments by using the practical data coming from a steel plant in China indicate that the proposed approach can effectively improve the scheduling accuracy and reduce the gas diffusion.

Application of causality diagram in system safety analysis

Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper, and the Minimal Cut Set, the Minimal Path Set and the Importance were introduced to develop the methodology. These concepts are employed to analyze the influence each event has on the top event ? the gas explosion, so as to find out about the defects of the system and accordingly help to work out the emphasis of the precautionary work and some preventive measures as well. The results of the safety analysis are in accordance with the practical requirements; therefore the preventive measures are certain to work effectively. In brief, according to the research CD is so effective in the safety analysis and the safety assessment that it can be a qualitative and quantitative method to predict the accident as well as offer some effective measures for the investigation, the prevention and the control of the accident.

Linkage intensity learning approach with genetic algorithm for causality diagram

The causality diagram theory, which adopts graphical expression of knowledge and direct intensity of causality, overcomes some shortages in belief network and has evolved into a mixed causality diagram methodology for discrete and continuous variable. But to give linkage intensity of causality diagram is difficult, particularly in many working conditions in which sampling data are limited or noisy. The classic learning algorithm is hard to be adopted. We used genetic algorithm to learn linkage intensity from limited data. The simulation results demonstrate that this algorithm is more suitable than the classic algorithm in the condition of sample shortage such as space shuttle’s fault diagnoisis.

Research on strategic risk identification method of equipment system development based on system dynamics

Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.

An Integrated Approach to Oscillation Propagation Identification and Source Locating in Process Multi-loop Systems

An integrated method for identifying the propagation of multi-loop process oscillations and their source location is proposed in this paper. Oscillatory process loop variables are automatically selected based on the component-related ratio index and a mixing matrix, both of which are obtained in data preprocessing by spectral independent component analysis. The complex causality among oscillatory process variables is then revealed by Granger causality test and is visualized in the form of causality diagram. The simplification of causal connectivity in the diagram is performed according to the understanding of process knowledge and the final simplest causality diagram, which represents the main oscillation propagation paths, is achieved by the automated cutting-off thresh-old search, with which less significant causality pathways are filtered out. The source of the oscillation disturbance can be identified intuitively through the final causality diagram. Both simulated and real plant data tests are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

More than Target 6.3： A Systems Approach to Rethinking Sustainable Development Goals in a Resource-Scarce World

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development outlines 17 individual Sustainable Development Goals （SDGs） that guide the needs of practice for many professional disciplines around the world, including engineering, research, policy, and development. The SDGs represent commitments to reduce poverty, hunger, ill health, gender inequality, environmental degradation, and lack of access to clean water and sanitation. If a typical reductionist approach is employed to address and optimize individual goals, it may lead to a failure in technological, policy, or managerial development interventions through unin- tended consequences in other goals. This study uses a systems approach to understand the fundamental dynamics between the SDGs in order to identify potential synergies and antagonisms. A conceptual system model was constructed to illustrate the causal relationships between SDGs, examine system structures using generic system archetypes, and identify leverage points to effectively influence intentional and minimize unintentional changes in the system. The structure of interactions among the SDGs reflects three archetypes of system behavior： Reinforcing Growth, Limits to Growth, and Growth and Underinvestment. The leverage points identified from the conceptual model are gender equality, sustainable management of water and sanitation, alternative resources, sustainable livelihood standards, and global partnerships. Such a conceptual system analysis of SDGs can enhance the likelihood that the development community will broaden its understanding of the potential synergistic benefits of their projects on resource management, environmental sustainability, and climate change. By linking the interactions and feedbacks of those projects with economic gains, women＇s empowerment, and educational equality, stakeholders can recognize holistic improvements that can be made to the quality of life of many of the world＇s poor.

Dynamic performance management system

An integrated, efficient and effective performance management system, ＂dynamic performance management system＂, is presented, which covers the entire performance management process including measures design, analysis, and dynamic update. The analysis of performance measures using causal loop diagrams, qualitative inference and analytic network process is mainly discussed. A real world case study is carried out throughout the paper to explain how the framework works. A software tool for DPMS, Performance Analyzer, is also introduced.

Deciding on a Measure of Effect under Indeterminism

Estimating causal effects is a principal goal in epidemiology and other branches of science. Nonetheless, what constitutes an effect and which measure of effect is pre-ferred are unsettled questions. I argue that, under indeterminism, an effect is a change in the tendency of the outcome variable to take each of its values, and then present a critical analysis of commonly used measures of effect and the measures of frequency from which they are calculated. I conclude that all causal effects should be quantified using a unifying measure of effect called the log likelihood ratio (which is the log probability ratio when the outcome is a discrete variable). Furthermore, I suggest that effects should be estimated for all causal contrasts of the causal variable (i.e., expo-sure), on all values of the outcome variable, and for all time intervals between the cause and the outcome. This goal should be kept in mind in practical approximations.