Analysis on causes of tropical cyclones and their disasters affecting on Guangxi coast based on historical data

The tropical cyclone that lands or passes through Guangxi coast is a serious natural disaster, which brings about strong winds, heavy rains, storm surges and other disasters causing severe damage of property or casualties in the coastal region every year. By counting and analyzing the tropical cyclones affecting Guangxi coast from 1950 to 2012, we find that the annual number of tropical cyclones changes significantly, and the maximum value can be up to 9, whereas the minimum value is 0 in some year. The regularity of seasonal distribution of tropical cyclones is obvious, and the peak period is in July, August and September every year, followed by June and October. Most of tropical cyclones come from the east of Philippines. After entering the South China Sea and passing through Hainan province and Leizhou Peninsula, they landed on Guangxi coast once again and caused the mean of peak surge reaching 111.2 cm, which is 2.6 times of non-landing typhoon. The formation of storm surge disaster is directly related to the severe typhoon weather systems, diurnal spring tide and discharge of river flood. Severe typhoons generate huge waves and rainfall, which lead to the rise of water level at the estuary, and would result in significant increasing water when stacking up with the storm surge, and cause huge tidal disaster.

Aviation Accident Causation Analysis Based on Complex Network Theory

Accident causation analysis is of great importance for accident prevention.In order to improve the aviation safety,a new analysis method of aviation accident causation based on complex network theory is proposed in this paper.Through selecting 257 accident investigation reports,45 causative factors and nine accident types are obtained by the three-level coding process of the grounded theory,and the interaction of these factors is analyzed based on the“2-4”model.Accordingly,the aviation accident causation network is constructed based on complex network theory which has scale-free characteristics and small-world properties,the characteristics of causative factors are analyzed by the topology of the network,and the key causative factors of the accidents are identified by the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.The comparison results show that the method proposed in this paper has the advantages of independent of expert experience,quantitative analysis of accident causative factors and statistical analysis of a lot of accident data,and it has better applicability and advancement.

Comparative study of HFACS and the 24Model accident causation models

A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system（HFACS） and the accident causation ＂2-4＂ model（24 Model）, as well as to provide a reference for safety researchers and accident investigators to select an appropriate accident analysis method. The two models are compared in terms of their theoretical foundations, cause classifications, accident analysis processes, application ranges, and accident prevention strategies. A coal and gas outburst accident is then analyzed using both models, and the application results are compared. This study shows that both the 24 Model and HFACS have strong theoretical foundations, and they can each be applied in various domains. In addition, the cause classification in HFACS is more practical, and its accident analysis process is more convenient. On the other hand, the 24 Model includes external factors, which makes the cause analysis more systematic and comprehensive. Moreover, the 24 Model puts forward more corresponding measures to prevent accidents.

A plant-based diet and coronary artery disease： a mandate for effective therapy

A 1999 autopsy study of young adults in the US betweenthe ages of 17 and 34 years of who died from accidents,suicides, and homicides confirmed that coronary artery dis-ease （CAD） is ubiquitous in this age group. The diseaseprocess at this stage is too early to cause coronary events butheralds their onset in the decades to follow.

Rudolf Virchow, poverty and global health: from “politics as medicine on a grand scale” to “health in all policies”

The German pathologist and politician Rudolf Virchow proposed the concept of sociomedical causation,em­phasising the role of social and environmental factors in the aetiology and prevention of diseases.Virchow’s achievements are threefold:he was a founder of scientific biomedicine,he characterised medicine as a social science as much as a biological science and he promoted and improved public health.In his landmark report of a typhus epidemic in mid-19th century Germany,Virchow drew a connection between the epidemic and poverty and living conditions.He proposed radical social reform and stated that,“medicine is social science and politics nothing but medicine on a grand scale”.The task of medicine was therefore not merely to treat disease but also to contribute to the health of the entire population.Virchow realised that,in order to improve the health of the public,medicine must attend to both its biological and social underpinnings.His work has had far-reaching con­sequences for the development of public health and medical sociology.As in Virchow’s times,poverty,deprived living conditions,malnutrition,crowding and economic insecurity determine to a high degree the prevalence of disease and life expectancy in low-and middle-income countries today.Sociomedical causation is not limited to infectious diseases but also extends to the contemporary pandemics of non-communicable diseases.Obesity and other non-communicable diseases cannot be addressed effectively without considering and acting on the social determinants of health.The concept of“health in all policies”has emerged with the goal of promoting political action addressing the social determinants of health.This concept concerns prevention of disease,promotion of a healthy lifestyle and improvement of factors potentially harmful to the health of entire populations.The current“health-in-all-policies”reforms in China may advance the global evidence base for the prevention of chronic disease in low-,middle-and high-income countries.

Artificial intelligence and computer simulation models in critical illness

Widespread implementation of electronic health records has led to the increased use of artificial intelligence(AI)and computer modeling in clinical medicine.The early recognition and treatment of critical illness are central to good outcomes but are made difficult by,among other things,the complexity of the environment and the often non-specific nature of the clinical presentation.Increasingly,AI applications are being proposed as decision supports for busy or distracted clinicians,to address this challenge.Data driven“associative”AI models are built from retrospective data registries with missing data and imprecise timing.Associative AI models lack transparency,often ignore causal mechanisms,and,while potentially useful in improved prognostication,have thus far had limited clinical applicability.To be clinically useful,AI tools need to provide bedside clinicians with actionable knowledge.Explicitly addressing causal mechanisms not only increases validity and replicability of the model,but also adds transparency and helps gain trust from the bedside clinicians for real world use of AI models in teaching and patient care.

Causality Is Logically Definable—Toward an Equilibrium-Based Computing Paradigm of Quantum Agent and Quantum Intelligence (QAQI) (Survey and Research)

A survey on agents, causality and intelligence is presented and an equilibrium-based computing paradigm of quantum agents and quantum intelligence (QAQI) is proposed. In the survey, Aristotle’s causality principle and its historical extensions by David Hume, Bertrand Russell, Lotfi Zadeh, Donald Rubin, Judea Pearl, Niels Bohr, Albert Einstein, David Bohm, and the causal set initiative are reviewed;bipolar dynamic logic (BDL) is introduced as a causal logic for bipolar inductive and deductive reasoning;bipolar quantum linear algebra (BQLA) is introdused as a causal algebra for quantum agent interaction and formation. Despite the widely held view that causality is undefinable with regularity, it is shown that equilibrium-based bipolar causality is logically definable using BDL and BQLA for causal inference in physical, social, biological, mental, and philosophical terms. This finding leads to the paradigm of QAQI where agents are modeled as quantum enssembles;intelligence is revealed as quantum intelligence. It is shown that the enssemble formation, mutation and interaction of agents can be described as direct or indirect results of quantum causality. Some fundamental laws of causation are presented for quantum agent entanglement and quantum intelligence. Applicability is illustrated;major challenges are identified in equilibriumbased causal inference and quantum data mining.

Chinese diet in the causation and prevention of cancer

ＴｈｅｄｒａｍａｔｉｃｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｃｅｓｉｎｔｈｅｃａｎｃｅｒｐａｔｅｒｎｓｂｅｔｗｅｅｎＣｈｉｎａａｎｄＮｏｒｔｈＡｍｅｒｉｃａ，ａｎｄａｍｏｎｇｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔｒｅｇｉｏｎｓｉｎＣｈｉｎａ，ｉｌｕｓｔｒａｔｅｔｈｅｐｒｏｆｏｕｎｄｅｆｆｅｃ...

Interpreting forest diversity-productivity relationships:volume values,disturbance histories and alternative inferences

Understanding the relationship between stand-level tree diversity and productivity has the potential to inform the science and management of forests.History shows that plant diversity-productivity relationships are challenging to interpret—and this remains true for the study of forests using non-experimental field data.Here we highlight pitfalls regarding the analyses and interpretation of such studies.We examine three themes:1)the nature and measurement of ecological productivity and related values;2)the role of stand history and disturbance in explaining forest characteristics;and 3)the interpretation of any relationship.We show that volume production and true productivity are distinct,and neither is a demonstrated proxy for economic values.Many stand characteristics,including diversity,volume growth and productivity,vary intrinsically with succession and stand history.We should be characterising these relationships rather than ignoring or eliminating them.Failure to do so may lead to misleading conclusions.To illustrate,we examine the study which prompted our concerns—Liang et al.(Science 354:aaf8957,2016)—which developed a sophisticated global analysis to infer a worldwide positive effect of biodiversity(tree species richness)on“forest productivity”(stand level wood volume production).Existing data should be able to address many of our concerns.Critical evaluations will improve understanding.

Dissociation and disasters: A systematic review

BACKGROUND Dissociation,which is defined as the failure to associate consciousness,memory,identity,emotion,perception,body representation,motor control,and behavior into an integrated whole,has long been assumed to be generated by trauma.If dissociation is a product of trauma exposure,then dissociation would be a major mental health outcome observed in studies of disaster survivors.Although some studies have examined dissociation in disasters,no systematic literature reviews have been conducted to date on the topic.AIM To systematically evaluate the literature on the association between disaster and dissociation to determine the prevalence and incidence of dissociation after exposure to disaster and further examine their relationship.METHODS EMBASE,Medline,and PsychINFO were searched from inception to January 1,2019 to identify studies examining dissociative disorders or symptoms related to a disaster in adult or child disaster survivors and disaster responders.Studies of military conflicts and war,articles not in English,and those with samples of 30 or more participants were excluded.Search terms used were“disaster*”and dissociation(“dissociat*,”“multiple personality,”“fugue,”“psychogenic amnesia,”“derealization,”and“depersonalization”).Reference lists of identified articles were scrutinized to identify studies for additional articles.RESULTS The final number of articles in the review was 53,including 36 articles with samples of adults aged 18 and above,5 of children/adolescents under age 18,and 12 of disaster workers.Included articles studied several types of disasters that occurred between 1989 and 2017,more than one-third(38%)from the United States.Only two studies had a primary aim to investigate dissociation in relation to disaster and none reported data on dissociative disorders.All of the studies used self-report symptom scales;none used structured interviews providing full diagnostic assessment of dissociative disorders or other psychopathology.Several studies mixed exposed and unexposed samples or did not differentiate outcomes between exposure groups.Studies examining associations between dissociation and disaster exposure have been inconclusive.The majority(75%)of the studies compared dissociation with posttraumatic stress,with inconsistent findings.Dissociation was found to be associated with a wide range of other psychiatric disorders,symptoms,and negative emotional,cognitive,and functional states.CONCLUSION The studies reviewed had serious methodological limitations including problems with measurement of psychopathology,sampling,and generation of unwarranted conclusions,precluding conclusions that dissociation is an established outcome of disaster.

STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2004 AND THE CAUSATION

In this paper, we summarized the characteristics of tropical cyclones （TC） activity over the western North Pacific in 2004 and analyzed their causation. Compared with the normal, the annual frequency of TC in 2004 was slightly higher, tropical cyclones in 2004 had a longer life span and occurred in a concentrated period, the source of TC were situated eastward; in all tracks of TC, the recurvature tracks took up larger proportion, the landtall regions of TC were located northward, which concentrated from East China to Japan. The primary causes were revealed as follows. Firstly, the intensity and area of the western North Pacific subtropical high was stronger and larger than usual respectively, and its ridge was frequently in the lbrm of cells and stretched northwestward. Secondly, the convergence of intertropical convergence zone （ITCZ） was reinforced and the convergence zone moved more eastward than average. Thirdly, the meridionality of the westerlies was larger than average and the cell-shaped ridge formed a saddle region, which is in favor of TC northward motion and recurature.

Perspectives of College Students on HPV and Its Causation to Cancer: Are They Misinformed?

This study endeavors to look at the overall level of understanding of the Human Papillomavirus (HPV) among college-age students and whether or not they can deduct what types of cancer are directly correlated with the infection. The research will present the disparity in knowledge among the surveyed college students and how the majority of this age group knows very little about HPV’s carcinogenic effects and how it could affect them later in life.

Deciding on a Measure of Effect under Indeterminism

Estimating causal effects is a principal goal in epidemiology and other branches of science. Nonetheless, what constitutes an effect and which measure of effect is pre-ferred are unsettled questions. I argue that, under indeterminism, an effect is a change in the tendency of the outcome variable to take each of its values, and then present a critical analysis of commonly used measures of effect and the measures of frequency from which they are calculated. I conclude that all causal effects should be quantified using a unifying measure of effect called the log likelihood ratio (which is the log probability ratio when the outcome is a discrete variable). Furthermore, I suggest that effects should be estimated for all causal contrasts of the causal variable (i.e., expo-sure), on all values of the outcome variable, and for all time intervals between the cause and the outcome. This goal should be kept in mind in practical approximations.

医疗事故中的因果关系初探

医疗事故中的因果关系初探刘新社，刘明俊，唐承汉，张秦初Ａｆｅｗｗｏｒｄｓａｂｏｕｔｔｈｅｃａｕｓａｔｉｏｎｏｆｍａｌｐｒａｃｔｉｃｅ￥ＬｉｕＸｉｎｇｓｈｅ（ＦｕｃｕｌｔｙｏｆＦｏｒｅｎｓｉｃＭｅｄｉｃｉｎｅ，ＸｉａｎＭｅｄｉｃａｌＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ...

A CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY OF "PASSIVE" UNACCUSATIVE ENGLISH VERBS IN FLA

This study investigates whether suggestion of external causation in contexts plays a role in English L2 overpassivization errors on unaccusative verbs. Based on lexical semantic theories and considering the effect of inferencing, it is hypothesized that; 1) Such errors are sensitive to verb unaccusativity strength which is presupposed in the study; 2) The degree of overpassivization in the context with strong suggestion of external causation differs significantly from that in contexts with weak suggestion of external causation; 3) As learners become more proficient in L2, the more semantic knowledge they possess, the less they are affected by a cognitive factor such as inferencing. This thesis thus contributes to theorizing the overpassivization issue by providing empirical evidence in favor of a Causativization account.

Chinese overseas ports:Market potential,supply capacity and access to imports

Especially since 2012 Chinese companies have acquired stakes as investors and constructors of overseas ports in both high-income and emerging economies.These initiatives play an important role in the construction of a Maritime Silk Road and China’s Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).Although a result of many factors,of which Chinese port investments are only one,macro-geographical gravity methods show that distance impedance and increases in the export market potential,export supply capacity and access to imports of these countries drove increases in income per capita.Export supply capacity rose particularly in Southeast Asia and more recently in Sub-Saharan Africa.In difficult times for the world economy,countries in which China invested in overseas port infrastructure saw increases in national export market potential and income per capita,due to reduction in the impedance of distance,while in the case of developing economies export market supply capacity and access to imported capital equipment and intermediate goods improved.

Plato on Necessity and Disorder

In the Timaeus, Plato makes a distinction between reason and necessity. This distinction is often accounted for as a distinction between two types of causation： purpose oriented causation and mechanistic causation. While reason is associated with the soul and taken to bring about its effects with the good and the beautiful as the end, necessity is understood in terms of a set of natural laws pertaining to material things. In this paper I shall suggest that there are reasons to reconsider the latter part of this account and argue for a non-mechanistic understanding of necessity. I will first outline how the notion of necessity is introduced in the dialogue. Next I will show how a mechanistic account of necessity fails to capture Plato＇s purpose of treating it as a causal factor; and, finally, I will argue that this purpose is better understood as an attempt, on Plato＇s part, to account for the causal origin of disorder and irrationality, an origin articulated in terms of a pre-cosmic situation and the notoriously difficult notion of the third kind.

The Emergence and Irreducibility of Scientific Knowledge： A Multi-Synergic-Holism

The world possesses a hierarchical structure and evolves through emergence. Its levels are the result of emergence, and possess unique properties and functions which their components and emergent bases do not. Each of these levels also possesses basic laws or rules which cannot be logically deduced from other levels, and evince downward causation. Therefore, there are non-linear causal networks among the levels of complex systems in which causal reductionism does not hold. The hierarchical structure is formed in accordance with the increasing organized complexity of the objects, so that different levels give birth to different disciplines, and different disciplines have their own theoretical autonomy and independence. Therefore, theories across different levels are essentially irreducible, and any apparent case of reduction may only be so in the sense of a partial reduction. Emergence-evolution-hierarchy ontology and multi-synergic holism is compatible with reductionism even as it transcends it.

Seventy Years in Philosophy of Mind： An Overview, with Emphasis on the Issue of Mental Causation

This paper is an opinionated overview of major developments in philosophy of mind during the past seventy years, with emphasis on the issue of mental causation. Its most prominent positions all embrace a broadly ＂naturalistic＂ or ＂materialistic＂ conception of human beings, and of mentality and its place in nature. Included in this paper are discussions of analytical behaviorism, the psychophysical identity theory, functionalism, multiple realizability and strong multiple realizability, supervenience, the causal exclusion problem, phenomenal mental states, wide content, contextualist causal compatibilism, agentive phenomenology, and the agent-exclusion problem.

Association between glaucoma and stroke:A bidirectional mendelian randomization study

Purpose:Observational studies have reported positive associations between glaucoma and stroke;however,controversial results exist.Importantly,the nature of the relationship remains unknown since previous studies were not designed to test causality.Therefore,we aimed to investigate the possible causal relationships between glaucoma and stroke.Methods:Our two-sample Mendelian randomization(MR)encompassed multi-ethnic large-scale genome-wide association studies with more than 20000 cases and 260000 controls for glaucoma,and more than 80000 cases and 630000 controls for stroke.Individual effect estimates for each SNP were combined using the inverse-variance weighted(IVW)method.To avoid potential pleiotropic effects,we adjusted the main results by excluding genetic variants associated with metabolic factors.The weighted median and MR-Egger methods were also used for the sensitivity analysis.Results:Our MR analysis revealed that glaucoma and its subtypes,including primary open-angle glaucoma and primary angle-closure glaucoma,exhibited no causal role in relation to any stroke(AS),any ischemic stroke(AIS),large-artery atherosclerotic stroke(LAS),small-vessel stroke(SVS),or cardioembolic stroke(CES)across MR analyses(all P>0.05).The null associations remained robust even after adjusting for metabolic-related traits and were consistent in both the European and Asian populations.Furthermore,reverse MR analyses also did not indicate any significant causal effects of AS,AIS,LAS,or CES on glaucoma risk.Conclusions:Evidence from our series of causal inference approaches using large-scale population-based MR an-alyses did not support causal effects between glaucoma and stroke.These findings suggest that the relationship of glaucoma management and stroke risk prevention should be carefully evaluated in future studies.In turn,stroke diagnosis should not be simply applied to glaucoma risk prediction.