Reservoir characteristics and formation model of Upper Carboniferous bauxite series in eastern Ordos Basin,NW China

Through core observation,thin section identification,X-ray diffraction analysis,scanning electron microscopy,and low-temperature nitrogen adsorption and isothermal adsorption experiments,the lithology and pore characteristics of the Upper Carboniferous bauxite series in eastern Ordos Basin were analyzed to reveal the formation and evolution process of the bauxite reservoirs.A petrological nomenclature and classification scheme for bauxitic rocks based on three units(aluminum hydroxides,iron minerals and clay minerals)is proposed.It is found that bauxitic mudstone is in the form of dense massive and clastic structures,while the(clayey)bauxite is of dense massive,pisolite,oolite,porous soil and clastic structures.Both bauxitic mudstone and bauxite reservoirs develop dissolution pores,intercrystalline pores,and microfractures as the dominant gas storage space,with the porosity less than 10% and mesopores in dominance.The bauxite series in the North China Craton can be divided into five sections,i.e.,ferrilite(Shanxi-style iron ore,section A),bauxitic mudstone(section B),bauxite(section C),bauxite mudstone(debris-containing,section D)and dark mudstone-coal section(section E).The burrow/funnel filling,lenticular,layered/massive bauxite deposits occur separately in the karst platforms,gentle slopes and low-lying areas.The karst platforms and gentle slopes are conducive to surface water leaching,with strong karstification,well-developed pores,large reservoir thickness and good physical properties,but poor strata continuity.The low-lying areas have poor physical properties but relatively continuous and stable reservoirs.The gas enrichment in bauxites is jointly controlled by source rock,reservoir rock and fractures.This recognition provides geological basis for the exploration and development of natural gas in the Upper Carboniferous in the study area and similar bauxite systems.

Assessment of Crop Yield in China Simulated by Thirteen Global Gridded Crop Models

Global gridded crop models(GGCMs) have been broadly applied to assess the impacts of climate and environmental change and adaptation on agricultural production. China is a major grain producing country, but thus far only a few studies have assessed the performance of GGCMs in China, and these studies mainly focused on the average and interannual variability of national and regional yields. Here, a systematic national-and provincial-scale evaluation of the simulations by13 GGCMs [12 from the GGCM Intercomparison(GGCMI) project, phase 1, and CLM5-crop] of the yields of four crops(wheat, maize, rice, and soybean) in China during 1980–2009 was carried out through comparison with crop yield statistics collected from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Results showed that GGCMI models generally underestimate the national yield of rice but overestimate it for the other three crops, while CLM5-crop can reproduce the national yields of wheat, maize, and rice well. Most GGCMs struggle to simulate the spatial patterns of crop yields. In terms of temporal variability, GGCMI models generally fail to capture the observed significant increases, but some can skillfully simulate the interannual variability. Conversely, CLM5-crop can represent the increases in wheat, maize, and rice, but works less well in simulating the interannual variability. At least one model can skillfully reproduce the temporal variability of yields in the top-10 producing provinces in China, albeit with a few exceptions. This study, for the first time, provides a complete picture of GGCM performance in China, which is important for GGCM development and understanding the reliability and uncertainty of national-and provincial-scale crop yield prediction in China.

The China Seismological Reference Model project

The importance of developing high-resolution seismic models to improve understanding of tectonic processes and enhance seismic hazard mitigation programs,along with the rapid expansion of seismic coverage in China,called for a seismological reference model to be established in China.The China Seismological Reference Model(CSRM)project was initiated by the National Natural Science Foundation of China with two primary goals:(1)the CSRM would serve as a primary source for the current state of seismological research in China,and(2)the seismic data and constraints used to construct the CSRM would be used as a backbone open-access cyberinfrastructure for future research in seismology.The CSRM project was also intended to promote data exchange and scientific collaboration in seismology in China.Accordingly,two parallel efforts of the project are being pursued:(1)construction of the CSRM,and(2)development of a CSRM product center.The CSRM is jointly constrained by various types of seismic constraints extracted from the seismic data recorded at 4511 seismic stations in continental China following a top-down approach,with the seismic structures in the shallower part of the Earth constrained first.Construction of the CSRM involves three preparation steps:(1)building datasets of various seismic constraints from the seismic data,(2)developing a method to incorporate the constraints of surface wave observations from regional earthquakes into the inversion of the seismic structure,and(3)constructing high-resolution pre-CSRM seismic models of the velocity structure in the shallow crust and the Pn-velocity structure in the uppermost mantle.In the final process,the CSRM will be constructed by jointly inverting all the seismic constraints using the pre-CSRM models as starting models or a priori structures.The CSRM product center(http://chinageorefmodel.org)archives and distributes three types of products:CSRM models,the Level 1 original seismic data used to extract seismic constraints in the construction of the CSRM,and Level 2 data on the seismic constraints derived from the Level 1 data and the inferred earthquake parameters in the construction of the CSRM.The CSRM product center has archived 141 TB of Level 1 data from 1120 permanent broadband stations in the China Seismic Network Center and 3391 temporary stations from various institutions and data centers around the world,as well as 140 GB of Level 2 data on various seismic constraints and inferred event parameters from the construction of the CSRM.The CSRM is expected to provide significant insights into the composition and tectonic dynamics in continental China and to enhance the capability of various seismic hazard mitigation programs in China from near real-time rapid determination of earthquake parameters to an earthquake early warning system.The CSRM could also provide guidance for focuses in future seismological research and the design of future active and passive seismic experiments in China.Several focuses are suggested for future seismological research in China,along with the building of a national cyberinfrastructure to sustain and expand the operations of the CSRM project.

The gradual subduction-collision evolution model of Proto-South China Sea and its control on oil and gas

This study involved outcrop,drilling,seismic,gravity,and magnetic data to systematically document the geological records of the subduction process of Proto-South China Sea(PSCS)and establish its evolution model.The results indicate that a series of arc-shaped ophiolite belts and calcalkaline magmatic rocks are developed in northern Borneo,both of which have the characteristics of gradually changing younger from west to east,and are direct signs of subduction and collision of PSCS.At the same time,the subduction of PSCS led to the formation of three accretion zones from the south to the north in Borneo,the Kuching belt,Sibu belt,and Miri belt.The sedimentary formation of northern Borneo is characterized by a three-layer structure,with the oceanic basement at the bottom,overlying the deep-sea flysch deposits of the Rajang–Crocker group,and the molasse sedimentary sequence that is dominated by river-delta and shallow marine facies at the top,recording the whole subduction–collision–orogeny process of PSCS.Further,seismic reflection and tomography also confirmed the subduction and collision of PSCS.Based on the geological records of the subduction and collision of PSCS,combined with the comprehensive analysis of segmented expansion and key tectonic events in the South China Sea,we establish the“gradual”subduction-collision evolution model of PSCS.During the late Eocene to middle Miocene,the Zengmu,Nansha,and Liyue–Palawan blocks were separated by West Baram Line and Balabac Fault,which collided with the Borneo block and Kagayan Ridge successively from the west to the east,forming several foreland basin systems,and PSCS subducted and closed from the west to the east.The subduction and extinction of PSCS controlled the oil and gas distribution pattern of southern South China Sea(SSCS)mainly in three aspects.First,the“gradual”closure process of PSCS led to the continuous development of many large deltas in SSCS.Second,the deltas formed during the subduction–collision of PSCS controlled the development of source rocks in the basins of SSCS.Macroscopically,the distribution and scale of deltas controlled the distribution and scale of source rocks,forming two types of source rocks,namely,coal measures and terrestrial marine facies.Microscopically,the difference of terrestrial higher plants carried by the delta controlled the proportion of macerals of source rocks.Third,the difference of source rocks mainly controlled the distribution pattern of oil and gas in SSCS.Meanwhile,the difference in the scale of source rocks mainly controlled the difference in the amount of oil and gas discoveries,resulting in a huge amount of oil and gas discoveries in the basin of SSCS.Meanwhile,the difference of macerals of source rocks mainly controlled the difference of oil and gas generation,forming the oil and gas distribution pattern of“nearshore oil and far-shore gas”.

Integrating a novel irrigation approximation method with a process-based remote sensing model to estimate multi-years'winter wheat yield over the North China Plain

Accurate estimation of regional winter wheat yields is essential for understanding the food production status and ensuring national food security.However,using the existing remote sensing-based crop yield models to accurately reproduce the inter-annual and spatial variations in winter wheat yields remains challenging due to the limited ability to acquire irrigation information in water-limited regions.Thus,we proposed a new approach to approximating irrigations of winter wheat over the North China Plain(NCP),where irrigation occurs extensively during the winter wheat growing season.This approach used irrigation pattern parameters(IPPs)to define the irrigation frequency and timing.Then,they were incorporated into a newly-developed process-based and remote sensing-driven crop yield model for winter wheat(PRYM–Wheat),to improve the regional estimates of winter wheat over the NCP.The IPPs were determined using statistical yield data of reference years(2010–2015)over the NCP.Our findings showed that PRYM–Wheat with the optimal IPPs could improve the regional estimate of winter wheat yield,with an increase and decrease in the correlation coefficient(R)and root mean square error(RMSE)of 0.15(about 37%)and 0.90 t ha–1(about 41%),respectively.The data in validation years(2001–2009 and 2016–2019)were used to validate PRYM–Wheat.In addition,our findings also showed R(RMSE)of 0.80(0.62 t ha–1)on a site level,0.61(0.91 t ha–1)for Hebei Province on a county level,0.73(0.97 t ha–1)for Henan Province on a county level,and 0.55(0.75 t ha–1)for Shandong Province on a city level.Overall,PRYM–Wheat can offer a stable and robust approach to estimating regional winter wheat yield across multiple years,providing a scientific basis for ensuring regional food security.

A comparative study of seismic tomography models of Southwest China

The margin of the Tibetan Plateau of Southwest China is one of the most seismically active regions of China and is the location of the China Seismic Experimental Site(CSES).Many studies have developed seismic velocity models of Southwest China,but few have compared and evaluated these models which is important for further model improvement.Thus,we compared six published seismic shear-wave velocity models of Southwest China on absolute velocity and velocity perturbation patterns.The models are derived from different types of data(e.g.,surface waves from ambient noise and earthquakes,body-wave travel times,receiver functions) and inversion methods.We interpolated the models into a uniform horizontal grid(0.5° × 0.5°) and vertically sampled them at 5,10,20,30,40,and 60 km depths.We found significant differences between the six models.Then,we selected three of them that showed greater consistency for further comparison.Our further comparisons revealed systematic biases between models in absolute velocity that may be related to different data types.The perturbation pattern of the model is especially divergent in the shallow part,but more consistent in the deep part.We conducted synthetic and inversion tests to explore possible causes and our results imply that systematic differences between the data,differences in methods,and other factors may directly affect the model.Therefore,the Southwest China velocity model still has considerable room for improvement,and the impact of inconsistency between different data types on the model needs further research.Finally,we proposed a new reference shear-wave velocity model of Southwest China(SwCM-S1.0) based on the three selected models with high consistency.We believe that this model is a better representation of more robust features of the models that are based on different data sets.

Modelling the crop yield gap with a remote sensing-based process model:A case study of winter wheat in the North China Plain

Understanding the spatial distribution of the crop yield gap(YG)is essential for improving crop yields.Recent studies have typically focused on the site scale,which may lead to considerable uncertainties when scaled to the regional scale.To mitigate this issue,this study used a process-based and remote sensing driven crop yield model for winter wheat(PRYM-Wheat),which was derived from the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator(BEPS),to simulate the YG of winter wheat in the North China Plain from 2015 to 2019.Yield validation based on statistical yield data revealed good performance of the PRYM-Wheat Model in simulating winter wheat actual yield(Ya).The distribution of Ya across the North China Plain showed great heterogeneity,decreasing from southeast to northwest.The remote sensing-estimated results show that the average YG of the study area was 6400.6 kg ha^(–1).The YG of Jiangsu Province was the largest,at7307.4 kg ha^(–1),while the YG of Anhui Province was the smallest,at 5842.1 kg ha^(–1).An analysis of the responses of YG to environmental factors showed no obvious correlation between YG and precipitation,but there was a weak negative correlation between YG and accumulated temperature.In addition,the YG was positively correlated with elevation.In general,studying the specific features of the YG can provide directions for increasing crop yields in the future.

Evaluation of global gridded crop models in simulating sugarcane yield in China

中国是全球第三大甘蔗生产国,中国甘蔗产量模拟可服务于全球食糖和乙醇的生产和贸易.全球格点作物模式CLM5-crop和LPJmL已实现对甘蔗的模拟,但它们在中国的模拟能力未知.本文评估结果表明:两个模式均严重低估了甘蔗产量,模拟均不足观测的1/4.CLM5-crop能有技巧地模拟产量的空间分布特征,而LPJmL不能.两个模式均不能合理模拟产量的年际变化,且低估了产量的上升趋势.模式低估甘蔗产量的部分原因是模式假设收割的是甘蔗的穗而非茎.

The impact of Internet access on household dietary quality:Evidence from rural China

Over the past few decades,the Internet has rapidly diffused across China.The spread of the Internet has had a profound economic and social impact on Chinese rural areas.Existing research shows that Internet access significantly impacts agricultural production and improves smallholder farmers’income.Beyond these,the Internet can affect other dimensions of social welfare.However,research about the impact of Internet access on dietary quality in rural China remains scarce.This study utilizes multi-period panel data from Fixed Observation Point in rural China from 2009 to 2015 to estimate the impact of Internet access on dietary quality and food consumption of rural households and conducts a causal analysis.Regression models with time and household fixed effects allow robust estimation while reducing potential issues of unobserved heterogeneity.The estimates show that Internet access has significantly increased rural household dietary quality(measured by the Chinese Diet Balance Index).Further research finds that Internet access has increased the consumption of animal products,such as aquatic and dairy products.We also examine the underlying mechanisms.Internet access improves dietary quality and food consumption mainly through increasing household income and food expenditure.These results encourage the promotion of Internet access as a valuable tool for nutritional improvements,especially in rural areas.

Combining rhizosphere and soil-based P management decreases the P fertilizer demand of China by more than half based on LePA model simulations

Phosphorus(P)is a finite natural resource and is increasingly considered to be a challenge for global sustainability.Agriculture in China plays a key role in global sustainable P management.Rhizosphere and soil-based P management are necessary for improving P-use efficiency and crop productivity in intensive agriculture in China.A previous study has shown that the future demand for phosphate fertilizer by China estimated by the LePA model(legacy phosphorus assessment model)can be greatly reduced by soil-based P management(the building-up and maintenance approach).The present study used the LePA model to predict the phosphate demand by China through combined rhizosphere and soil-based P management at county scale under four P fertilizer scenarios:(1)same P application rate as in 2012;(2)rate maintained same as 2012 in low-P counties or no P fertilizer applied in high-P counties until targeted soil Olsen-P(TPOlsen)level is reached,and then rate was the same as P-removed at harvest;(3)rate in each county decreased to1–7 kg ha^(-1) yr^(-1) after TPOlsen is reached in low-P counties,then increased by 0.1–9 kg ha^(-1) yr^(-1) until equal to P-removal;(4)rate maintained same as 2012 in low-P counties until TPOlsen is reached and then equaled to P-removal,while the rate in high-P counties is decreased to 1–7 kg ha^(-1) yr^(-1) until TPOlsen is reached and then increased by 0.1–9 kg ha^(-1) yr^(-1)until equal to P-removal.Our predictions showed that the total demand for P fertilizer by whole China was 693 Mt P2O5and according to scenario 4,P fertilizer could be reduced by 57.5%compared with farmer current practice,during the period 2013–2080.The model showed that rhizosphere P management led to a further 8.0%decrease in P fertilizer use compared with soil-based P management.The average soil Olsen-P level in China only needs to be maintained at 17 mg kg^(-1) to achieve high crop yields.Our results provide a firm basis for government to issue-relevant policies for sustainable P management in China.

Mangrove wetlands distribution status identification, changing trend analyzation and carbon storage assessment of China

This research investigates the ecological importance,changes,and status of mangrove wetlands along China’s coastline.Visual interpretation,geological surveys,and ISO clustering unsupervised classification methods are employed to interpret mangrove distribution from remote sensing images from 2021,utilizing ArcGIS software platform.Furthermore,the carbon storage capacity of mangrove wetlands is quantified using the carbon storage module of InVEST model.Results show that the mangrove wetlands in China covered an area of 278.85 km2 in 2021,predominantly distributed in Hainan,Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Zhejiang,Taiwan,Hong Kong,and Macao.The total carbon storage is assessed at 2.11×10^(6) t,with specific regional data provided.Trends since the 1950s reveal periods of increase,decrease,sharp decrease,and slight-steady increases in mangrove areas in China.An important finding is the predominant replacement of natural coastlines adjacent to mangrove wetlands by artificial ones,highlighting the need for creating suitable spaces for mangrove restoration.This study is poised to guide future mangroverelated investigations and conservation strategies.

Impacts of Increasing Model Resolutions and Shortening Forecast Lead Times on QPFs in South China During the Rainy Season

This study investigated the impacts of increasing model resolutions and shortening forecast lead times on the quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF)for heavy-rainfall events over south China during the rainy seasons in 2013-2020.The control experiment,where the analysis-forecast cycles run with model resolutions of about 3 km,was compared to a lower-resolution experiment with model resolutions of about 9 km,and a longer-term experiment activated 12 hours earlier.Rainfall forecasting in the presummer rainy season was significantly improved by improving model resolutions,with more improvements in cases with stronger synoptic-scale forcings.This is partially attributed to the improved initial conditions(ICs)and subsequent forecasts for low-level jets(LLJs).Forecasts of heavy rainfall induced by landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)benefited from increasing model resolutions in the first 6 hours.Forecast improvements in rainfall due to shortening forecast lead times were more significant at earlier(1-6 h)and later(7-12 h)lead times for cases with stronger and weaker synoptic-scale forcings,respectively,due to the area-and case-dependent improvements in ICs for nonprecipitation variables.Specifically,significant improvements mainly presented over the northern South China Sea for low-level onshore wind of weak-forcing cases but over south China for LLJs of strong-forcing cases during the presummer rainy season,and over south China for all the nonprecipitation variables above the surface during the TC season.However,some disadvantages of higher-resolution and shorter-term forecasts in QPFs highlight the importance of developing ensemble forecasting with proper IC perturbations,which include the complementary advantages of lower-resolution and longer-term forecasts.

Adaptive Wind Gust and Associated Gust-factor Model for the Gust-producing Weather over the Northern South China Sea

Wind gusts are common environmental hazards that can damage buildings,bridges,aircraft,and cruise ships and interrupt electric power distribution,air traffic,waterway transport and port operations.Accurately predicting peak wind gusts in numerical models is essential for saving lives and preventing economic losses.This study investigates the climatology of peak wind gusts and their associated gust factors(GFs)using observations in the coastal and open ocean of the northern South China Sea(NSCS),where severe gust-producing weather occurs throughout the year.The stratified climatology demonstrates that the peak wind gust and GF vary with seasons and particularly with weather types.Based on the inversely proportional relationship between the GF and mean wind speed(MWS),a variety of GF models are constructed through least squares regression analysis.Peak gust speed(PGS)forecasts are obtained through the GF models by multiplying the GFs by observed wind speeds rather than forecasted wind speeds.The errors are thus entirely due to the representation of the GF models.The GF models are improved with weather-adaptive GFs,as evaluated by the stratified MWS.Nevertheless,these weather-adaptive GF models show negative bias for predicting stronger PGSs due to insufficient data representation of the extreme wind gusts.The evaluation of the above models provides insight into maximizing the performance of GF models.This study further proposes a stratified process for forecasting peak wind gusts for routine operations.

Influence of Human Activity Intensity on Habitat Quality in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park,China

Due to long-term human activity interference,the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park(HTRNP)of China has experienced ecological problems such as habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss,and with the expanding scope and intensity of human activity impact,the regional ecological security is facing serious challenges.A scientific assessment of the interrelationship between human activity intensity and habitat quality in the HTRNP is a prerequisite for achieving effective management of ecological disturbances caused by human activities and can also provide scientific strategies for the sustainable development of the region.Based on the land use change data in 2000,2010,and 2020,the spatial and temporal variations and the relationship between habitat quality(HQ)and human activity intensity(HAI)in the HTRNP were explored using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model.System dynamics and land use simulation models were also combined to conduct multi-scenario simulations of their relationships.The results showed that during 2000–2020,the habitat quality of the HTRNP improved,the intensity of human activities decreased each year,and there was a negative correlation between the two.Second,the system dynamic model could be well coupled with the land use simulation model by combining socio-economic and natural factors.The simulation scenarios of the coupling model showed that the harmonious development(HD)scenario is effective in curbing the increasing trend of human activity intensity and decreasing trend of habitat quality,with a weaker trade-off between the two compared with the baseline development(BD)and investment priority oriented(IPO)scenarios.To maintain the authenticity and integrity of the HTRNP,effective measures such as ecological corridor construction,ecological restoration,and the implementation of ecological compensation policies need to be strengthened.

The influence of lipid-extraction on theδ^(13)C of mesopelagic and demersal fish in the South China Sea:modification and application of lipid normalization models

Mesopelagic fish,the most important daily vertically migrating community in the oceans,are characterized by high lipid content which may obscure the interpretation of stable isotopes analysis.Demersal fish,which are important consumers in the food web dominated by mesopelagic fish,also have a high lipid content.Here we collected 127 fish samples from the South China Sea and evaluated the effect of lipid contents on△δ^(13)C of mesopelagic and demersal fish.In lipid-extracted mesopelagic fish,the C/N content ratio(<5.5)shows a clear correlation withΔδ^(13)C(the offset of bulk and lipid-extractedδ^(13)C values),especially in non-migratory and semi-migratory species;these values were less correlation in demersal fish.Based on our results,we suggest that mesopelagic and demersal fish in different regions of the South China Sea should be studied separately using appropriate correction models and less fit for the traditional model.Moreover,the C/N content ratio should be used cautiously for establishing the lipid normalization model,especially for the fish in migratory mesopelagic fish and demersal fish.Our results also reveal that mesopelagic fish across nearby regions could be analyzed together.The new models described here can be applied in future studies of mesopelagic and demersal fish in the South China Sea.

Comparison of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models in determining moisture recycling ratio

Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.

How Does Urban Shrinkage Affect Land Use Efficiency?A Case Study of Shrinking Cities in Northeast China

The effect of urban shrinkage has gradually become a new topic.Theoretically,urban shrinkage may exert great influence on land use efficiency(LUE)through various urban subsystems,but there is currently limited research examining these pathways.Using the Super-SBM-Undesirable model and the Structural Equation Model(SEM),this study calculates the LUE of shrinking cities in Northeast China and simulates the process of urban shrinkage affecting LUE.To quantify the process of urban shrinkage affecting LUE,three mediation variables,namely the economy,public services,and innovation,are used as latent variables to apply SEM.The results show that urban shrinkage will affect LUE through a direct path and indirect paths.In the direct path,urban shrinkage leads to an improvement in LUE.In the indirect paths,the economy and innovation will transmit the negative effect of urban shrinkage on LUE,while public services will reverse this effect.An important contribution of this study is that it quantifies the paths of urban shrinkage affecting LUE,thereby expanding the understanding of urban shrinkage effect and laying a foundation for the sustainable development of shrinking cities.

Impact of Hinterland Manufacturing on the Development of Container Ports: Evidence from the Pearl River Delta, China

Container ports and hinterland manufacturing are two important forces of the local participation in economic globalization.This study,taking the Pearl River Delta(PRD),China with an export-oriented economy as an example,applies Huff and panel regres-sion models to evaluate the impact of hinterland manufacturing on the development of container ports during the period of 1993–2019.The results show that 1)the spatial patterns of hinterlands for hub ports help to determine the distribution range and scale of economic variables that affect port throughput;2)the hinterland’s gross manufacturing output has universally positive influence on port through-put,wherein export-oriented processing and the entire manufacturing industry have significantly positive impact on port throughput in 1993–2011 and 2001–2019,respectively;3)the two internal structural factors related to an export-oriented economy,labor-intensive sectors and foreign-funded terminals,have positively moderate the direct influence of hinterland manufacturing on port throughput.Our results highlight the importance of local context in understanding port-manufacturing relationship in developing economies.Based on our findings,policy implications are further proposed to enhance port network organization in PRD.

Future Changes in Various Cold Surges over China in CMIP6 Projections

Cold surges(CSs)often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development.We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs(PCSs)have rebounded since the 1990s,but the trends related to the frequencies of strong CSs(SCSs)and extreme CSs(ECSs)changed from increasing to decreasing after 2000.The highest-ranked model ensemble approach was used to project the occurrences of various CSs under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The frequencies of the total CSs show overall decreasing trends.However,under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,slight increasing trends are noted for SCSs and ECSs in China.Atmospheric circulations that are characterized by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation with a significantly positive 500-hPa geopotential height(Z500)anomaly at high latitudes along with significant negative anomalies in China were favorable for cold air intrusions into China.In addition,the frequencies of all CS types under the SPP5-8.5 scenario greatly decreased in the long term(2071-2100),a finding which is thought to be related to negative SST anomalies in the central and western North Pacific,differences in sea level pressure(SLP)between high-and mid-latitude regions,and a weaker East Asian trough.In terms of ECSs,the decreasing trends observed during the historical period were maintained until 2024 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.Compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the Z500 pattern showed a trend of strengthened ridges over the Ural region and northern East Asia and weakened troughs over Siberia(60°-90°E)under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,contributing to the shift to increasing trends of ECSs after 2014.

Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,northern China

Protection and optimization of cultivated land resources are of great significance to national food security.Cultivated land conversion in northern China has increased in recent years due to the industrialization and urbanization of society.However,the assessment of cultivated land conversion in this area is insufficient,posing a potential risk to cultivated land resources.This study evaluated the evolution and spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China,and the driving factors to improve rational utilization and to protect cultivated land resources.The spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia were analyzed using the cultivated land conversion index,kernel density analysis,a standard deviation ellipse model,and a geographic detector.Results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the trends in cultivated land conversion area and rate in Inner Mongolia exhibited fluctuating growth,with the total area of cultivated land conversion reaching 7307.59 km^(2) at a rate of 6.69%.Spatial distribution of cultivated land conversion was primarily concentrated in the Hetao Plain,Nengjiang Plain,Liaohe Plain,and the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos urban agglomeration.Moreover,the standard deviational ellipse of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia exhibited a directional southwest-northeast-southwest-northeast distribution,with the northeast-southwest direction identified as the main driving force of spatial change in cultivated land conversion.Meanwhile,cultivated land conversion exhibited an increase-decrease-increase change process,indicating that spatial distribution of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia became gradually apparent within the study period.The geographic detector results further revealed that the main driving factors of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia were the share of secondary and tertiary industries and per-unit area yield of grain,with explanatory rates of 57.00%,55.00%,and 51.00%,respectively.Additionally,improved agricultural production efficiency and the coordinated development of population urbanization and industry resulted in cultivated land conversion.Collectively,the findings of this study indicated that,from 2000 to 2020,the cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia was significant and fluctuated in time,and had strong spatial heterogeneity.The primary drivers of these events included the effects of agriculture,population,and social economy.