Moderating effect of corporate financialization on the impact of climate policy on corporate green innovation:Evidence from China

With intensifying global climate change,humanity is confronted with unparalleled environmental challenges and risks.This study employs the staggered difference-in-difference model to examine the relationship between climate policy and green innovation in the corporate financialization context.Using Chinese-listed company data from 2008 to 2020,our analysis reveals a favorable correlation between China’s carbon emission trading policy(CCTP)and advancements in green innovation.Furthermore,we find that the level of corporate financialization moderates this correlation,diminishing the driving effect of CCTP on green innovation.Additionally,results of heterogeneity analysis show that this moderating consequence is more evident in non-state owned and low-digitization enterprises compared with state-owned and high-digitization ones.Our findings contribute to the existing literature by clarifying the interaction between CCTP,green innovation,and corporate financialization.Our research provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to strengthen climate policies and encourages green innovation in different types of businesses.

Scheme of Constructing CGE Model of China's Direct Grain Subsidy Policy

This paper introduces the model of China's direct grain subsidy policy, adopts computable general equilibrium (CGE) theory, and advances the scheme of constructing the model of China's direct grain subsidy policy. On the basis of some assumptions, such as conforming to the complete competition of market, inexistence of move of capital and labor forces among countries, unchanged exchange rate and incomplete substitution, and the main body of behavior comprising representative households, producers, local government and central government, the model established in this paper includes production module and demand module. Moreover, the model takes into account equilibrium structure, the definition of profiting and macro condition for closure, the related coefficients this CGE model needs include Armingtion substitution elasticity of intermediate composite product, investment composite product and consumption composite product between import and domestic production; substitution elasticity among production factors; conversion elasticity of total sales between domestic absorption and export; elasticity of residents' expenditure; elasticity of price; elasticity of export demand; the relative share of all sectors in capital stock. This paper also points out the advantages and limitations of CGE model in analyzing direct grain subsidy policy.

Optimization and Regulation Policy for Land Use Changes Based on Low-carbon Emission in Developed Regions of China

Land use and cover change(LUCC) is one of the important causes of the Earth’s carbon cycle imbalances resulting from failure in optimizing land use. The solution to this problem has been the hotspot of research in land and environmental science. We took 'low carbon', 'energy saving' and 'high-efficiency' as the goals of land use optimization,and integrated Markov-CA(Cellular Automaton),the Grid-Fractal model and GIS,in order to study carbon emission objective function,to establish a simulation method for land use spatial allocation optimization,to evaluate the effect of the method on carbon emissions. Regulation policy on three types of land use spatial allocation was proposed,including 'low-carbon type', 'low-carbon-economic type' and 'economic type'. We applied the method to analyze the land use spatial allocation in Taixing City of the 'Yangtze River Delta' regions in China,and obtained the following results:(i) The three optimization types would improve carbon emissions by 3. 21%,1. 80% and 0. 36% respectively in 2020,compared with 2010;(ii) The actual planning for 2020 was close to the 'low-carbon-economic type';(iii) The optimization method and regulation policy,combining local optimization and global control,could meet the sustainable multi-objective requirements for low-carbon constraints of land use spatial allocation. The result of this research could also serve as a reference for exploration into patterns of regional low-carbon land use and measures for energy saving and emission reduction.

Econometric Study of Relationship between Change of Farmland Quantity and Policy of Farmland Protection in China

According to the data from Investigation Report of Land Use Change in China,The Land Resources Communique of China and Chronicle of Statistical Data for Five Decades of New China issued from Ministry of Land Resources,we select two indices:change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection.According to econometric theory,by using Eviewes 5.1 software,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response and other analysis methods,we analyze the relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection in China since the reform and opening-up.The results show that there is long-term balanced relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection,and there is a certain mechanism restricting motion of variables between the two so as to make the two deviate from each other little and step towards balance in the long run;there is unilateral causality relationship between farmland change and policy of farmland protection,namely that the farmland change is the Granger cause of policy of farmland protection,while policy of farmland protection is not the Granger cause of farmland change;impulse response and variance decomposition indicate that farmland change plays the role of promoting policy of farmland protection continuously,and the role is strengthened along with prolonged lag period;the policy of farmland protection has strong inertia,because it is impacted by the former level of itself,and the policy of farmland protection plays insignificant role in promoting farmland quantity.Consequently,the important approach of solving problem of rapid decrease of farmland is to formulate long-term strategy,strengthen theoretical research of farmland protection and reinforce degree of formulation,implementation and surveillance of farmland protection policy.

An economic analysis of China’s domestic crude oil supply policies

China's domestic oil production has lagged the growth in domestic oil consumption since the beginning of the 21st century,leading to a growing reliance on imports.In response,the Chinese government has introduced a number of policies,including import license constraints,to support domestic suppliers.In an effort to measure the economic impact of these policies we develop a short-run equilibrium model of China's wholesale oil and gas market at the provincial scale.We construct counterfactual scenarios that suggest that relaxing policies that prioritize domestic production in 2016,when the average price of Chinese oil imports was US$42 per barrel(bbl),could have increased China's import demand by 0.29 million barrels per day(MMbbl/d).This results in a substitution of 9%of China’s domestic production in 2016,and a reduction of US$2.8 billion in crude supply costs including transportation as the imported oil has more direct access to the country’s pipeline network,compared to the displaced domestic production.In addition,rising import prices since mid-2017 may provide a window of opportunity for Chinese policymakers to proceed with further deregulation of the domestic oil sector,as the short-term impact on domestic producers is reduced.

中国社会政策与社会福利法制70年历史轨迹、制度特征和基本经验

1949年以来,我国经历了国家职能的历史性转变,社会政策与社会福利制度发展亦呈现鲜明的阶段性特征。2021年我国全面建成小康社会,消除了绝对贫困,标志着我国现代社会福利制度建设进入了新阶段。本文以社会政策与社会立法为切入点,选择现代、广义社会福利理论视角,将社会政策与社会福利法制建设划分为六个主要阶段,概括社会福利政策与社会福利法制九大结构性特征,总结六大基本历史经验。总体来看,70余年法治国家、法治政府、法治社会建设走过曲折坎坷、波澜壮阔的历程,积累了丰富的历史经验,蕴含现代法治的普遍性规律。主要启示包括:家庭化保护应升级为国家层面的福利制度;现代社会发展应避免社会政策被经济政策化;最佳的社会政策也是最佳的经济政策;探索建立具有中国特色的现代社会福利制度是推进中国式现代化的应有之义,关键在于推动现代社会福利财政制度建设。

数字经济政策冲击推动能源效率提升的影响机制研究

基于2006—2021年全国281个地级市面板数据,将“宽带中国”示范城市政策视为一项准自然实验,运用多期双重差分法考察数字经济政策冲击对能源效率提升的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,“宽带中国”示范城市政策推动了能源效率提升,经过一系列稳健性检验,结论依然成立。机制研究发现,“宽带中国”示范城市政策主要通过加强绿色创新和促进金融发展来提升能源效率。异质性分析表明,“宽带中国”示范城市政策能有效推动老工业基地能源效率提升,但对非老工业基地的影响不显著;该政策能有效推动一二线城市能源效率提升,但对其他城市影响不显著。进一步研究表明,“宽带中国”示范城市政策对能源效率提升还存在一定的空间溢出效应,对周边区域的能源效率提升具有带动作用。

基于PMC指数模型的健康中国行动政策分析

目的对我国健康中国行动政策进行量化分析,为相关政策制定和完善提供依据。方法以2016—2023年国家级、省级层面发布的健康中国行动政策为研究对象,使用文本挖掘方法构建包含9个一级变量和41个二级变量的政策一致性(Policy Modeling Consistency,PMC)指数模型,对健康中国行动政策进行质量评价。结果以筛选出的32份健康中国行动政策作为样本政策,PMC指数平均值为7.81,政策质量均在良好及以上,处于中度凹陷水平。一级变量中政策性质、政策内容、政策评价等PMC指数平均值较高,政策激励和效力级别维度的不足之处比较明显。结论健康中国行动政策整体覆盖较为全面,但仍存在效力级别层次单薄、政策多元激励及相应政策工具运用不足、地域间发展不平衡等问题。未来应从丰富效力级别、均衡政策工具使用、加强地区间交流学习等方面进行完善。

基于政策建模一致性(PMC)指数模型的中美人工智能政策比较研究

对人工智能政策文本,特别是从人工智能专项政策的角度开展相关研究,能够为进一步完善中国人工智能政策体系提供决策支持。为此,以中美两国在顶层设计、职能部门两个层面共74份人工智能政策文本作为研究对象(中国51份、美国23份),通过文本挖掘方法识别出两国人工智能政策的关注重点,用政策建模一致性(PMC)指数模型建立人工智能政策评价指标体系,并结合PMC指数值和PMC曲面图,对两国各6份具有代表性的政策文本进行量化评价和对比分析。研究发现在总体上,中美两国的人工智能政策表现较好,能够较为准确地把握当前人工智能的发展前景,具有一定价值导向性和前瞻性;政策制定设计较为合理、政策协同性较高;在政策制定过程中都注重对智能化、科技创新、成果应用等方面的研究,而对于政策领域和效力级别方面则重视程度较低。同时发现两国在政策对象、政策内容和保障措施等方面的差异化显著:美国的政策扎根于技术研发、人才队伍建设、标准体系构建和基础研究投资等方面,在政策内容、保障措施等方面比中国更完善,但政策对象覆盖程度不够广;中国的政策对象兼顾宏观和微观的视角,涉及国家、产业和企业等层面,但在伦理规范、合作发展、核心技术优势等方面存在缺陷。基于此,进一步从保障措施、政策内容与政策领域3个方面提出完善中国人工智能政策的发展对策,强调中国人工智能政策的整体优化路径应为“保障措施→政策内容→政策领域”。

中国境外产业园区开发模式比较研究——以东南亚四国园区为例

中国“走出去”战略的实施,推动了中国境外产业园区开发从单一企业自发行为分化为政策与市场二元驱动下的企业行为。文章从价值循环视角,通过对东南亚4个典型园区的访谈资料与相关政策文件进行质性分析,研究政策激励与市场引导下中国境外产业园区差异化的价值循环路径及其作用下的多元化开发策略。在此基础上,文章从海外投资决策、市场规则适应、政商关系处理等方面提出了中国境外产业园区的可持续发展建议。

中国的碳中和: 技术经济路径与政策选择

2020年中国政府向国际社会承诺了2060年实现碳中和的战略目标,这将对我国中长期经济增长模式、能源转型和碳排放路径产生深远的影响.在此背景下,本文构建了技术扩展的能源-经济-环境系统集成模型,综合评估了我国实现2060年碳中和目标的能源技术路径和经济可行性,并给出了相应的政策选择.研究发现了2030年的非化石能源发展目标与碳中和目标的高度一致性,且碳中和要求高排放的“平台期”大幅缩短.单纯的碳价或非化石能源补贴政策均不足以支持碳中和目标的如期达成,而退煤脱油机制下碳价干预与负排放技术的发展激励为这一目标的实现提供了可行的政策选项.碳中和下,太阳能和风能成为能源系统的主力,其合计供能比重需达到53%,其次是水电和装配CCS技术的生物质能,分别占比13.7%和12.5%.研究进一步指出,经济代价不应该成为我国推进碳中和目标达成的主要顾虑,在“对勾”型政策成本轨迹下,预估的累积经济成本不超过相应GDP的1.9%,且在政策目标达成之前即可享受到碳中和带来的经济发展红利.

西南山区乡村人居环境治理:模式比较与政策启示——以4个典型村落为例

探索乡村人居环境治理的有效模式对推进乡村建设,促进乡村振兴具有重要意义。文章基于西南山区4个典型村落人居环境治理的实地调研,依据农户行为理论、公共选择理论、委托代理理论和多中心治理理论,按照治理主体力量的不同,将其划分为村民自主治理、政府治理、市场治理和多中心治理4种主要模式,并深入比较4种治理模式的实践机制。研究发现:4种模式在乡村人居环境治理中各有利弊,且适用环境不尽相同。距县城、中心镇较远,宗亲关系密切和农户较为分散的村落适宜推行村民自主治理模式;人口较为集聚且政府治理能力强的村落适宜推行政府治理模式;资源禀赋强、人文历史和交通条件好的村落适宜推行市场治理模式;村落发展较好且利益联动机制较为完善的村落,适宜推行多中心治理模式。西南山区乡村人居环境治理水平总体较低,后续治理任务依然艰巨,针对政府治理成本大、市场进出机制不完善和村民参与不积极等问题,从政府、市场和村民等视角提出了相应建议。

美国货币政策不确定性对中国CPI影响效应研究

为应对2018年开始的美国国内经济下行和高通胀,美联储实施了由宽松到紧缩的货币政策。由于美元在国际清算系统(SWIFT)中具有主导地位并在SDR货币篮子中具有绝对份额,因此,美国货币政策“松与紧”调整的不确定性或将给世界及中国经济带来风险。本文依据国际货币、价格传导等理论,选取2019年1月—2023年6月美国利率和中国CPI等时间序列数据,运用TVP-VAR模型研究了美国货币政策调整对我国CPI的外部冲击效应。研究表明:美国货币政策由松到紧调整的不确定性对我国CPI具有外部性影响,并存在时变特征;在“松与紧”的不同时期,美国货币政策通过不同途径对中国CPI的影响存在异质性;同时,美联储货币政策调整对我国不同商品价格的冲击也呈现出异质性。因此,我国需继续坚持稳健的货币政策,发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功效;用好国际国内资金、市场等金融要素,持续提升金融开放水平,稳健推进金融强国建设;以国内大循环为主,提高经济内驱力和产业韧性,以深厚“内功”,夯实我国CPI在合理区间波动的基础;加大能源、消费品,生活用品价格等对CPI影响较大行业监测和调控等措施;从而降低美国货币政策调整的不确定性对我国CPI造成的异常波动的外部风险,助力我国金融强国目标建设。

Experiences and Prospects of China＇s Free Economic Zones after over 20 Years

Chinese FEZs are used as the tool for opening-up policy and the structural reform as well as the growth pole for the regional economic development. It is true that no Free Economic Zones （FEZs） in the world like in China have made so strong impact on national economic development and structural reform. Due to the change of their existing condition since the middle of 1990s, Chinese FEZs have to face the new challenges and problems. This study discusses and prospects the transformation and further development of Chinese FEZs in the 21^st century as well as their significance for the transformation of FEZs in other countries based on the analysis of the indicators such as the role, policy, industrial sectors, administration, development model, spatial structure and location.

宏观杠杆率、金融稳定与货币政策调控——基于中国金融稳定指数的构建

基于TVP-VAR模型探讨货币政策不同量价工具对宏观杠杆率和金融稳定的时变影响机制以及宏观杠杆率与金融稳定间的双向动态溢出效应。结果表明,从货币政策的调控效应看,数量型和价格型工具对稳杠杆和稳金融均具有显著的、阶段性的调控效果,不同期限组合能够实现抑制宏观杠杆率和促进金融稳定;从稳杠杆与稳金融的双向溢出效应看,二者互为调控政策的路径选择,宏观杠杆率的适度波动在长期内有助于提升金融稳定,而金融体系稳定性的增强在中长期内能够有效遏制宏观杠杆率的上升势头。为此,货币当局应继续健全“稳杠杆”和“稳金融”的监管体系,完善货币政策调控改革机制,提升结构性货币政策实施质效,加快宏观审慎政策框架建设,形成宏观杠杆率稳定与金融稳定相互促进的良性循环。

健康中国战略下体医结合养老模式的价值定位与政策分析

人口老龄化已成为当前经济社会发展的主要问题之一,相关领域也对此展开了深入研究。如何打造健康养老模式,实现健康中国战略目标无疑是探究的热点课题。该文以“体医结合”健康养老模式为例,梳理和分析我国体医结合相关政策,发现我国在近几年密集出台体医养等相关政策,且政策内容呈现深化与细化特征,为老年群体提供了保障。但在分析中发现,目前仍存在政策难以落实,未深入开展健康教育、健康指导、保健康复、慢病诊治等问题。对此,在运用政策内容分析的基础上,明确“体医结合”健康养老模式理论与价值定位,并结合实际情况提出相关建议,望为相关研究者提供参考。

中蒙俄经济走廊建设的政策效应研究

加快中蒙俄经济走廊建设有利于促进“一带一路”倡议的实施。基于2005—2021年中蒙俄三国与部分中亚国家的面板数据,利用双重差分模型评价中蒙俄经济走廊建设的政策效应。结果表明:第一,中蒙俄三国的贸易规模不断扩大,双边贸易密切程度由高至低依次是蒙俄、中蒙、中俄。第二,根据贸易竞争力指数,中国在劳动密集型和资本、技术密集型商品上具有竞争优势,蒙古国和俄罗斯在资源密集型商品上具有竞争优势,且三国双边贸易竞争力指数与贸易互补性指数相匹配。第三,中蒙俄经济走廊建设显著促进了中国、蒙古国、俄罗斯的经济发展,进一步研究发现政策效应对中国和俄罗斯经济发展水平的促进作用大于对蒙古国的促进作用。城市化水平、教育水平、人力资本及产业结构也对中蒙俄三国经济发展水平具有显著的促进作用。

中国外汇市场压力与货币政策关联性研究——基于Tvp-Var模型的实证研究

中国外汇市场压力受外部宏观经济因素、汇率制度改革影响,呈现明显的结构变化现象。中国外汇市场压力和货币政策之间的内在关系是动态的、复杂的,在谨慎管理货币政策的基础上,要对外汇市场压力形成正确的认识和判断。本文以Tvp-Var模型为依据,以定量分析思想研究中国外汇市场和货币政策之间的关系,了解国内通货膨胀、经济增长等对外汇市场产生的压力,探究外汇市场压力在不同经济周期的表现情况,以供参考。

“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设对城市绿色发展效率的影响

制造业转型升级以智能制造和绿色制造为支撑,是打破中国制造业大而不强、低端锁定的核心途径,具有赋能绿色发展的巨大潜力。通过制造业转型升级推进城市绿色发展是中国产业政策制定和实施面临的严峻考验。该研究聚焦“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设这一产业试点政策,探究其能否以及如何赋能城市绿色发展?鉴于此,该研究基于2004—2020年中国281个地级市面板数据,以2016和2017年设立的30个“中国制造2025”试点示范城市作为准自然实验,在分析其影响绿色发展的理论机制基础上,应用多期双重差分法检验“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设对城市绿色发展效率的影响,并考察其异质性和空间溢出性。研究发现:“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设显著驱动了城市绿色发展效率提升,且该结论在经过多轮稳健性检验后仍然成立。异质性分析表明在高制造业集聚城市、高工业智能化城市和高数字金融发展城市开展试点政策将对城市绿色发展效率提升产生“锦上添花”的影响。机制分析表明:“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设主要通过促进绿色技术进步、引导产业升级和强化环境监管提升城市绿色发展效率,研究期间内试点政策尚未触发驱动城市绿色发展效率提升的能源消费结构优化机制。空间溢出结果表明“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设对本市和邻近城市绿色发展效率提升均有显著推动作用。为此,在“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设过程中,应作好试点城市的经验总结与推广,并切实结合城市发展差距,探索制造业转型促进城市绿色发展效率提升的多维路径,培育城市绿色增长极。

What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance?Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model

In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People＇s Bank of China （PBC） as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBC＇ s implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets, but not output gaps, figure significantly in the PBC＇s policy changes.