Do farmers care about climate change? Evidence from five major grain producing areas of China

Using a logistic model,this paper empirically investigated farmers’perception of climate change and its determinants based on a field survey of 1 350 rural households across five major grain producing provinces in China.The results show:i)There is an apparent difference in perception levels for long-term temperature and precipitation changes.Specifically,57.4%of farmers perceived the long-term temperature change correctly,but only 29.7%of farmers perceived the long-term precipitation change correctly;ii)The factors influencing the farmers’perceptions are almost completely different between precipitation and temperature,the former are mostly agriculture related,while latter are mostly non-agriculture related,except for farm size;and iii)Farmers are not expected to pay more attention to long-term precipitation changes over the crop growing seasons,because less than 30%of farmers can correctly perceive long-term precipitation change.Therefore,to improve the accuracy of farmers’perceptions of climate change,the government is recommended to:i)enhance education and training programs;ii)speed up land transfer and expand household land farm size;iii)develop farmer cooperative organizations;iv)invest more in agricultural infrastructure,specifically in major grain producing regions;and v)improve the agricultural environment and increase farming income.

Variation Character of Grain Yield per Unit Area in Main Grain-producing Area of Northeast China

Based on the surveys and the statistic data during 1980-2003, the variation character of grain yield per unit area in Northeast China and its main factors have been discussed by the methods of statistics and grey correlation analysis. The results show that: 1) the grain yield per unit area has been taking on an increasing trend in the recent 20 years. It increased from 2519.80kg/ha in 1980 to 4216.11kg/ha in 2003, with an increasing rate of 67.32%; 2) the variation of grain yield per unit area is considerably prominent and its range is also very great, with the maximal increase rate of 42.59% and maximal decrease rate of 21.13%, respectively, which are far above the whole Chinese average level; 3) the variation of main crops' yield per unit area is remarkable, which takes on the character that the yield of corn is much higher than that of soybean and rice; and 4) the grey correlation analysis shows that the most important factors impacting the variation of grain yield per unit area are the total power of agricultural machinery, the consumption of chemical fertilizer and effective irrigated area. However, the influence of natural disaster and income level should not be ignored. Effective ways to improve grain yield per unit area are to construct farmland improvement groundwork, reclaim the middle- and low-yield farmland, etc.

Review grain yield and nitrogen use efficiency in rice production regions in China

As one of the staple food crops, rice（Oryza sativa L.） is widely cultivated across China, which plays a critical role in guaranteeing national food security. Most previous studies on grain yield or/and nitrogen use efficiency（NUE） of rice in China often involved site-specific field experiments, or small regions with insufficient data, which limited the representation for the current rice production regions. In this study, a database covering a wide range of climate conditions, soil types and field managements across China, was developed to estimate rice grain yield and NUE in various rice production regions in China and to evaluate the relationships between N rates and grain yield, NUE. According to the database for rice, the values of grain yield, plant N accumulation, N harvest index（HIN）, indigenous N supply（INS）, internal N efficiency（IE_N）, reciprocal internal N efficiency（RIE_N）, agronomic N use efficiency（AE_N）, partial N factor productivity（PEPN）, physiological N efficiency（PE_N）, and recover efficiency of applied N（RE_N） averaged 7.69 t ha^（–1）, 152 kg ha^（–1）, 0.64 kg kg^（–1）, 94.1 kg kg^（–1）, 53.9 kg kg^（–1）, 1.98 kg kg^（–1）, 12.6 kg kg^（–1）, 48.6 kg kg^（–1）, 33.8 kg kg^（–1）, and 39.3%, respectively. However, the corresponding values all varied tremendously with large variation. Rice planting regions and N rates had significant influence on grain yield, N uptake and NUE values. Considering all observations, N rates of 200 to 250 kg ha^（–1） commonly achieved higher rice grain yield compared to less than 200 kg N ha^（–1） and more than 250 kg N ha^（–1） at most rice planting regions. At N rates of 200 to 250 kg ha^（–1）, significant positive linear relationships were observed between rice grain yield and AE_N, PE_N, RE_N, IE_N, and PFPN, and 46.49, 24.64, 7.94, 17.84, and 88.24% of the variation in AE_N, PE_N, RE_N, IE_N, and PFPN could be explained by grain yield, respectively. In conclusion, in a reasonable range of N application, an increase in grain yield can be achieved accompanying by an acceptable NUE.

Forecast of Grain Production of China during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period

According to the latest revised agricultural economic statistical data in China Statistical Yearbook-2010,by selecting and establishing the square root-treated grey model,the empirical analysis and forecast research on the grain output of China from 2011 to 2015 are conducted.The results show that the grain output of China in 2011 will reach 557.739 million tons,and it will break through 600 million tons at 605.617 million tons in 2015.The persistent and stable grain output will ensure that the national economy develops in normal during the twelfth five-year plan period and remit the world grain crisis efficiently;meanwhile,the problem of exorbitant grain prices should be remitted in some level.

The causes and impacts for heat stress in spring maize during grain filling in the North China Plain--A review

High-temperature stress （HTS） at the grain-filling stage in spring maize （Zea mays L.） is the main obstacle to increasing productivity in the North China Plain （NCP）. To solve this problem, the physiological mechanisms of HTS, and its causes and impacts, must be understood. The HTS threshold of the duration and rate in grain filling, photosynthetic characteristics （e.g., the thermal stability of thylakoid membrane, chlorophyll and electron transfer, photosynthetic carbon assimilation）, water status （e.g., leaf water potential, turgor and leaf relative water content） and signal transduction in maize are reviewed. The HTS threshold for spring maize is highly desirable to be appraised to prevent damages by unfavorable temperatures during grain filling in this region. HTS has negative impacts on maize photosynthesis by damaging the stability of the thylakoid membrane structure and degrading chlorophyll, which reduces light energy absorption, transfer and photosynthetic carbon assimilation. In addition, photosynthesis can be deleteriously affected due to inhibited root growth under HTS in which plants decrease their water-absorbing capacity, leaf water potential, turgor, leaf relative water content, and stomatal conductance. Inhibited photosynthesis decrease the supply of photosynthates to the grain, leading to falling of kernel weight and even grain yield. However, maize does not respond passively to HTS. The plant transduces the abscisic acid （ABA） signal to express heat shock proteins （HSPs）, which are molecular chaperones that participate in protein refolding and degradation caused by HTS. HSPs stabilize target protein configurations and indirectly improve thylakoid membrane structure stability, light energy absorption and passing, electron transport, and fixed carbon assimilation, leading to improved photosynthesis. ABA also induces stomatal closure to maintain a good water status for photosynthesis. Based on understanding of such mechanisms, strategies for alleviating HTS at the grain-filling stage in spring maize are summarized. Eight strategies have the potential to improve the ability of spring maize to avoid or tolerate HTS in this study, e.g., adjusting sowing date to avoid HTS, breeding heat-tolerance varieties, and tillage methods, optimizing irrigation, heat acclimation, regulating chemicals, nutritional management, and planting geometric design to tolerate HTS. Based on the single technology breakthrough, a com- prehensive integrated technical system is needed to improve heat tolerance and increase the spring maize yield in the NCP.

Climate Change, Risk and Grain Yields in China

Adopting Just and Pope （1978, 1979） style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1℃ increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45% （1.74% reduction in North China and 1.19% reduction in South China）, while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31% （3.0% increase in North China and 0.59% reduction in South China）.

Cultivated-land change in Mu Us Sandy Land of China before and after the first-stage grain-for-green policy

Mu Us Sandy Land(MUSL) of China, as a typical eco-fragile and farming-pastoral transitional region, shows great vulnerability to disturbances from cultivation activity. In this region, the conflict between cultivation activity and environmental protection has not attracted great importance until the implementation of China's Grain-for-Green Policy(CGGP) since2000. Here, using Landsat5 TM/Landsat7 ETM+ images from 1990, 2000, and 2010, we monitor the cultivation activity and land-use/cover changes(LUCC) resulting from cultivation activity in the MUSL region. Based on the data from images, we developed a series of databases of cultivated activity-induced LUCC and use them to discuss comparatively the spatio-temporal evolution trends of cultivation activity before and after CGGP implementation. These results provide evidence for managers to evaluate the implementation effectiveness of governmental policy and the influence of cultivation activity on the ecological environment of the MUSL region.

The Grain-population Relationship and the Effect of Main Food Producing Areas in China

With the increase of global population,grain-population relationship has attracted great attention worldwide.In China,grain-population relationship has become an increasingly important economic concern.Of central importance to the food security debate in China is the geography of grain supply and demand.This paper uses a grain demand and supply index (DSR) to analyze the spatial-temporal relationship between population and grain in China from 1949 to 2007 at national and provincial scales.The results are examined in three periods.(1) From 1949 to 2007,with the increase of grain production,the relationship between population and grain of China improved considerably.(2) Over the past 35 years (1970-2005),on the whole the grain producing areas have had grain surplus and contributed to the nation by providing grain,but the ability to provide sufficient grain is not stable.(3) Over the past 15 years (1990-2005),decreases in planting area brought pressure on national grain food security.The paper concludes that the key to providing more food for the main food producing provinces is increasing yield on the basis of steady plant area.

Challenges or Opportunities?——Developments of China's Grain Industry since WTO Entry

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy,while grain is the cornet stone of that foundation.It is also essential for subsis- tence and development of the mankind. In recent years,especially since its

Study on Fluctuation of Grain Yield in China's Major Grain Producing Areas

By using the statistical data of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas from 1949 to 2008,and fluctuation theory,the historical process and main cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas are analyzed.The results of research show that the grain yield in China's major grain producing areas grows in unstable fluctuation,with high-frequency fluctuation cycle and regular length;the amplitude of fluctuation,on the whole,is moderate,with not strong stability;the fluctuation of grain yield has correspondence,reflecting the N-shape developmental trend of grain production at present;the fluctuation of grain yield has gradient characteristics;in the process of comparison of grain yield,the average growth rate annually of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is higher than that of the national average,but the relative fluctuation coefficient is also higher than that of the national average.From five aspects,namely natural disaster,agricultural policy,production input,grain price and grain circulation,the cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is analyzed,and measures of preventing and arresting super-long fluctuation of grain yield are put forward.Firstly,stick to strict farmland protection system,and strive to promote farmland quality;secondly,strengthen infrastructure construction of grain production and beef up the ability of preventing natural disaster;thirdly,quicken the pace of agricultural technology and establish robust technology supporting system;fourthly,lay stress on innovation of agricultural organization system and provide implementation path and vehicle for application of agricultural technology measures;fifthly,perfect disaster precaution system and grain market system,and strengthen the ability of preventing risk of grain production.

Foreign Grain Security Mechanisms and Implications for China

With constant growth of China's population and increasingly serious situation of farmland protection,the grain security has become a hot issue of China.This study firstly elaborated grain security measures in grain exporters,such as the United States,Australia,and EU,and grain importers such as Japan,South Korea and India.In line with these security measures,it analyzed implementation background of these policies.Finally,combining social and economic development situations and natural resource endowment of China,it revealed the implications of these measures for China and came up with policy recommendations for China's grain security.

Relationship between the eating quality and the physico-chemical properties of high grain quality rice in China

Relationship between eating quality(EQ)andphysico-chemical properties of 78 high grainquality rice varieties,45 indica and 33 japoni-ca,were studied in 1995.The samples werecollected from different rice growing regions in20 provinces.The physico-chemical proper-ties,including grain length(GL),length towidth ratio(L/W),chalky grain rate(CG),chalkiness(CH),translucency(TR),gela-tinization temperature(GT,measured by alka-li spreading value),gel consistency(CA2),amylase content(AC),and protein content(PC)were measured according to the standard

Partitioning of grain-size components of estuarine sediments and implications for sediment transport in southwestern Laizhou Bay, China

Sediment transport in estuarine systems has been of increasing interest for scientists during the past few decades. However, the mechanisms for sediment redistribution remain unclear. We characterized in detail sediment transport in the Xiaoqing River estuary using the mathematical Weibull function to partition grain-size components of surface sediments in the southwestern Laizhou Bay, Northeast China. Four partitioned components: finer than 4,4.6-12.5, 23.4-63.3, and 67.1-132.6 μm were interpreted in terms of hydrodynamic conditions. During sediment transport, silt grains were suspended and moved seaward from three depositional centers, whereas fine-grained sands moved generally landward. Overall, sediments are transported clockwise in a generally NNE direction near shore and then turn eastward offshore. The mathematical partitioning method showed a great potential for future estuarine environmental studies.

The changing regional distribution of grain production in China in the 21st century

This paper examines the changing regional distribution of grain production in China. Based on the analysis of data from county statistics for the period 2000-2003, major differences in the main grain-output regions in China can be observed. The main grain-producing areas have shifted from the south to the north of China. New grain production regions have been also added to westem China since the late 1990s. The per capita grain consumption in one third of China＇s main grain-producing counties has fallen below 400 kg; most of these areas are located in southern China. In the new millennium, Northeast China, the central-south North China, and the add and semi-arid regions of Northwest China produced three quarters of the surplus grains. Most of these areas are located in regions susceptible to environmental change. The amount of grain production in these regions shows high fluctuations. It is argued here that fi.trther studies of recent environmental changes as well as a risk assessment of China＇s food security in main grain-output regions are needed.

Planting density affected biomass and grain yield of maize for seed production in an arid region of Northwest China

Field experiments were conducted from 2012 to 2015 in an arid region of Northwest China to investigate the effects of planting density on plant growth, yield, and water use efficiency（WUE） of maize for seed production. Five planting densities of 6.75, 8.25, 9.75, 11.25 and 12.75 plants/m^2 were conducted in 2012, and a planting density of 14.25 plants/m^2 was added from 2013 to 2015. Through comparison with the Aqua Crop yield model, a modified model was developed to estimate the biomass accumulation and yield under different planting densities using adjustment coefficient for normalized biomass water productivity and harvest index. It was found that the modified yield model had a better performance and could generate results with higher determination coefficient and lower error. The results indicated that higher planting density increased the leaf area index and biomass accumulation, but decreased the biomass accumulation per plant. The total yield increased rapidly as planting density increased to 11.25 plants/m^2, but only a slight increase was observed when the density was greater than 11.25 plants/m^2. The WUE also reached the maximum when planting density was 11.25 plants/m^2, which was the recommended planting density of maize for seed production in Northwest China.

CHINA'S GRAIN SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE 21ST CENTURY

This paper makes predictions for China’s grain production and its associated supply and demand situation up to 2030 by using input-occupancy-output techniques and systems science methodology. It argues that, taking into account its basic situation and world grain resources, China has no other choice but to count on self-sufficiency in terms of grain supply.

Influence of China's Grain Industrial Market Structure over Grain Pricing Power

From the point of view of industrial market structure,we analyze the influence of market structure on grain production,circulation,and processing,and on the grain pricing power of entities along China's grain industrial chain.Through analysis,it is indicated that different features of market structure play a significant role in pricing power of such microeconomic entities as farmers and grain enterprises in grain production and transaction.And the market structure determines welfare distribution model of consumers' surplus and producers' surplus at the market.

Grain Production and Cultivated Land in China

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Response of grain yield to plant density and nitrogen rate in spring maize hybrids released from 1970 to 2010 in Northeast China

The objective of this study was to identify the response of grain yield to plant density and nitrogen rate in spring maize hybrids released from 1970 to 2010 and grown extensively in Northeast China.Twenty-one hybrids were grown for 2 years in Northeast China at densities of 30,000,52,500,75,000,and 97,500 plants ha^(-1)and N application levels of 0,150,300,and 450 kg N ha^(-1).Irrespective of density or nitrogen application rate,grain yields both per plant and per unit area were significantly higher for newer than older hybrids.As plant density increased from 30,000 to 97,500 plant ha^(-1),yield per plant of 1970 s,1980 s,1990 s,and 2000 s hybrids decreased by 50%,45%,46%,and 52%,respectively.The response of grain yield per unit area to plant density was curvilinear.The estimated optimum plant densities were about 58,000,49,000,65,000,and 65,000 plants ha^(-1)for hybrids released in the 1970 s,1980s,1990 s,and 2000 s,respectively.The theoretical optimum densities for the hybrids released from the 1970 s to the 2000 s increased by 1750 plants ha^(-1)decade^(-1).Nitrogen fertilization significantly increased grain yields per plant and per unit area for all hybrids.The theoretical optimum N application rates for high yield for hybrids released in the 1970 s and 1980 s were about 280 and 360 kg ha^(-1),and the hybrids from the 1990 s and 2000 s showed highest yield at 330 kg ha^(-1)N.No significant difference in the grain yields of 2000 s hybrids between the N levels of 150 to 450 kg ha^(-1)was found.Significant yield gains per plant and per unit area were found,with average increases of 17.9 g plant^(-1)decade^(-1)and936 kg ha^(-1)decade^(-1)over the period 1970–2010,respectively.Yield gains were attributed mainly to increased yield per plant,contributed by increases in kernel number per ear and1000-kernel weight.The rates of lodging and barren plants of newer hybrids were significantly lower than those of older ones,especially at high plant density.

Decoupling of grain production from land resources in China:Land use reduced but fertilizer and water use intensified

The issue of grain security in China is attracting global attention. In this research, we analyze the relationship between grain production and cropland resources. The results indicate that decoupling of these two variables is realized at the national level, and fertilizer and irrigation play increasingly important roles in grain production. Of the 18 principal grain producing provinces, seven showed absolute decoupling, three showed relative decoupling, five showed quasi-relative decoupling, and three provinces showed coupling. Also, the relative importance of fertilizer and irrigation in grain production is different among the four different modes of coupling/decoupling.