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Prevalence of vegetation browning in China’s drylands under climate change 被引量:1
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作者 Li Fu Guolong Zhang +3 位作者 Jianping Huang Ming Peng Lei Ding Dongliang Han 《Geography and Sustainability》 CSCD 2024年第3期405-414,共10页
Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning ... Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce.In this study,we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning(monotonic,interruption,and reversal)through the breaks for the additive season and trend(BFAST)method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022.It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs(ERPs)and climate change on these vegetation trends.We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands.Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening(29.8%)and greening with setback(36.8%),whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal(19.2%).The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr,which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback,0.0078/yr.This research highlights that,under the background of widespread vegetation greening,vegetation browning is pro-gressively increasing due to the effects of climate change.Furthermore,the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage,with the increase rate in 2000-2022 being twice as much as that of 1982-1999 in reveg-etation regions.Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances,which offset the efforts of ERPs. 展开更多
关键词 chinas drylands Ecological restoration programs climate change Greening to browning reversal BFAsT
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Cooperation and Divergence between China and the United States in the Governance of Global Climate Change 被引量:1
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作者 Bo Yan 《Contemporary Social Sciences》 2016年第1期130-145,共16页
China and the United States are two key players in global climate governance.What about their relations in the field of climate change and how should we view these relations? An analysis of their relations in global c... China and the United States are two key players in global climate governance.What about their relations in the field of climate change and how should we view these relations? An analysis of their relations in global climate governance is of great significance both for global multinational negotiations and their bilateral relations. The two parties have enhanced their cooperation on climate change since 2009 in terms of increasing willingness, broader scale, more diverse mechanisms and higher effectiveness. With the U.N. Paris Climate Conference 2015 approaching, China-US cooperation will inject much momentum into the multilateral process of reaching an ambitious agreement. However, there are also sharp divergences between China and the U.S. regarding principles, rules, and legal means. These divergences might become prominent during the Paris Conference and need to be addressed at the bilateral level. 展开更多
关键词 china the U.s. GOVERNANCE of GLOBAL climate change GLOBAL climate
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Global Climate Change and China's Green Development
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作者 Hu Angang 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 2011年第4期9-15,共7页
For China, green industrial revolution induced by global climate change poses not only the greatest challenge, but also the greatest opportunity. In the perspective of China's basic national conditions, and especi... For China, green industrial revolution induced by global climate change poses not only the greatest challenge, but also the greatest opportunity. In the perspective of China's basic national conditions, and especially its natural conditions, China's green development is the inevitable path of choice for the realization of sustainable development and scientific development. The essence of China's modernization 2050 is green modernization, taking the three-step strategy towards China's own green development and energy conservation and emission reduction. In combination with the 12 th Five Year Plan, its innovative positioning is "green development plan". 展开更多
关键词 global climate change green industrial revolution china's green development green modernization green development plan
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Systematic Synthesis of Impacts of Climate Change on China's Crop Production System
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作者 TANG Hua-jun WU Wen-bin +1 位作者 YANG Peng LI Zheng-guo 《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2014年第7期1413-1417,共5页
Global climate change is real and already taking place. The most recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) stated that global land and ocean surface temperature inc... Global climate change is real and already taking place. The most recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) stated that global land and ocean surface temperature increased by 0.85℃ over the period of 1880 to 2012 (IPCC Climate Change 2013). China is among the most affected countries by global climate change. 展开更多
关键词 systematic synthesis of Impacts of climate change on chinas Crop Production system
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National Environmental Policy Act of the United States and Its Application in Climate Litigation——Evaluating Litigation Case by Friends of the Earth on Export-Import Bank of the United States and Overseas Private Investment Corporation
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作者 Liu Menglei Fang Yenchin 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2015年第7期23-27,共5页
Because that American government and congress hold a negative attitude on responding to climate change issue, people transfer the battle stage of climate change to the court,and hope to promote government and large en... Because that American government and congress hold a negative attitude on responding to climate change issue, people transfer the battle stage of climate change to the court,and hope to promote government and large energy companies actively responding to climate change issue via litigation form. A large amount of related litigation appears,and a kind of special litigation type is gradually formed, namely climate change litigation. National Environmental Policy Act of the United States is one of important legal weapons used by prosecutor in climate change litigation. In National Environmental Policy Act, it stipulates environmental impact evaluation system which has close relationship with climate change litigation. The system requires that federal agency " should compile detailed environmental impact report (EIS) on major federal action which significantly affects human survival environment quality". Litigation case of Export - Import Bank of the United States and Overseas Private Investment Corporation by Fdends of the Earth, Green Peace, Boulder City, etc. is typical one related to the act. We try to evaluate and analyze text and case of the act. 展开更多
关键词 climate change litigation national Environmental Policy Act Environmental impact evaluation china
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From Mutual Creation to Mutual Benefit:China’s National Teacher Training Program between Higher Teacher Education and K-12 Teachers
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作者 Fangyi Zhao Xu Liu 《Journal of Contemporary Educational Research》 2022年第9期65-75,共11页
Sustainable Development Goal(SDG 4)lays solid theoretical foundation for the development of higher teacher education in improving the quality of teaching faculty nationwide.Sustainable teacher training paves a way for... Sustainable Development Goal(SDG 4)lays solid theoretical foundation for the development of higher teacher education in improving the quality of teaching faculty nationwide.Sustainable teacher training paves a way for teacher professional development in the long run.China’s“National Teacher Training Program”serves a connection between higher teacher education and K-12 teachers in multiple perspectives when exploring K-12 teachers’improvement of the essence by upgrading the initiative of the program with the assistance of educational technology and modern educational philosophy from mutual creation to mutual benefit.Direction orientation strategic design based on demand for teaching faculty,curriculum setting in modules,and characteristics creation have been carried out to upgrade the training of teacher colleges and National Teacher Training Program in the future for achieving a win-win situation between higher teacher education and K-12 education. 展开更多
关键词 sustainable Development Goal(sDG 4) chinas national Teacher Training program Higher teacher education Teacher development K-12 teachers
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Climate Suitability of Schima superba in Subtropical Zone of China under Future Climate Scenario
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作者 MA Li-na QIAN Huai-sui ZHANG Jing-fen 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 2012年第10期63-71,共9页
[ Objective] The research aimed to study climate suitability of S. superba in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario and response of its regional distribution on climate change. [ Metbed] Based on cli... [ Objective] The research aimed to study climate suitability of S. superba in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario and response of its regional distribution on climate change. [ Metbed] Based on climate- vegetation related Kira model, Holdridge model and ecological suitability theory, climate suitability model of S. superba was established by using fuzzy mathematics. Based on the daily meteorological data at 246 stations of the subtropical zone from 1960 to 2005, by using spatial interpolation method, suitability of S. superba on temperature, precipitation, po- tential evapotranspiration rate was analyzed. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Sce- nario (SRES), future scenario simulation result was used. Under IPCC A2 scenario, climate suitability of S. superba and its change were studied in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario. Climate suitability of S. superba in future was classified. [ Result] Under future climate scenario, climate suitability of S. superba was stronger in most of areas in Hunan, north Guangdong, northeast Guangxi and east coast of Zhe- jiang. It was suitable for growth of S. superba in central Guangxi, east Guizhou, central Jiangxi and Fuzhou. Growth suitability of S. superba was still lower in the north of Gongshan - Weixi - Lijiang - Yuanjiang - Huize - Leibo - Emei - Neijiang - Nanchong - Bazhong - Zhongxiang - zaoyang - Xinyang -Lu'an -Chuzhou -Gaoyou -Taitong. Climate suitability in west Yunnan and Sichuan had big change. Future climate suitability change of S. superba was greatly affected by temperature and potential evapotranspiration rate. [ Conclusion] Future climate suitability decreased toward west and north from Hunan. The climate suitability had a decline trend as time went by under future climate scenario. The research provided theoretical basis for studying geographic distribution of the vegetation population. 展开更多
关键词 climate suitability change Future climate scenario s. superba sUBTROPICs china
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Scientific Progress in China's Lunar Exploration Program 被引量:1
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作者 XU Lin OUYANG Ziyuan 《空间科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2014年第5期525-534,共10页
Chang'E-1, the first lunar mission in China, was successfully launched on October 24,2007, which opened the prelude of China's Lunar Exploration Program. Later on, the Chang'E-2 and Chang'E-3 satellite... Chang'E-1, the first lunar mission in China, was successfully launched on October 24,2007, which opened the prelude of China's Lunar Exploration Program. Later on, the Chang'E-2 and Chang'E-3 satellites were successfully launched in 2010 and 2013, respectively. In order to achieve the science objectives, various payloads boarded the spacecraft. The scientific data from these instruments were received by Beijing and Kunming ground stations simultaneously. Up to now, about 5.628 Terabytes of raw data were received totally. A series of research results has been achieved. This paper presents a brief introduction to the main scientific results and latest progress from Chang'E-3 mission. 展开更多
关键词 chinas LUNAR Exploration program chang’E satellite sCIENTIFIC REsULT MOON
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Making our contributions to past global change——An introduction to a recently fulfilled program supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
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作者 Chai, YC Tian, XY Ma, FC 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 1997年第23期2022-2024,共3页
IN recent years, a series of environmental problems have attracted wide attention in the world.As environmental changes can result from both the operations of natural factors and human ac-tivities, the international s... IN recent years, a series of environmental problems have attracted wide attention in the world.As environmental changes can result from both the operations of natural factors and human ac-tivities, the international science community has the common opinion that environmental prob-lems should be studied in a broader perspect. In other words, the earth environment should beregarded as an entity that consists of many interactive and interrelated parts. Highlighted 展开更多
关键词 An introduction to a recently fulfilled program supported by the national Natural science Foundation of china Making our contributions to past global change
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An analysis of China's CO_2 emission peaking target and pathways 被引量:15
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作者 HE Jian-Kun 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE 2014年第4期155-161,共7页
China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching targe... China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China's resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China's potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China's total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China's total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system. 展开更多
关键词 CO2 emission peak Energy revolution climate change china's carbon emission mitigation target
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Multi-model comparison of CO2 emissions peaking in China:Lessons from CEMF01 study 被引量:6
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作者 Oleg LUGOVOY FENG Xiang-Zhao +4 位作者 GAO Ji LI Ji-Feng LIU Qiang TENG Fei ZOU Le-Le 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第1期1-15,共15页
The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and indust... The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research. 展开更多
关键词 Carbon EMIssIONs projections climate change CO2 EMIssIONs peak chinas Paris commitment Top-Down ENERGY MODELs BOTTOM-UP ENERGY MODELs Multi model comparative sTUDY china ENERGY Modeling Forum(CEMF)
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Relations between sedimentary sequence and paleoclimatic changes during last 200 ka in the southern South China Sea 被引量:12
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作者 Muhong Chen Xia Tu +5 位作者 Fan Zheng Wen Yan Xianzan Tang Jun Lu Baogui Wang Miao’an Lu 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 2000年第14期1334-1340,共7页
Core NS-93-5 was taken from the mild slope terrace of the southern South China Sea (SCS), which has preserved the steadiness depositional record of the normal marine environment since late Quaternary. Sedimentary sequ... Core NS-93-5 was taken from the mild slope terrace of the southern South China Sea (SCS), which has preserved the steadiness depositional record of the normal marine environment since late Quaternary. Sedimentary sequence and oxygen isotopic stratigraphy of high resolution in the near 200 ka of the southern SCS has been established. By the comparative analysis with GISP2’s ice core, the depositional record of D/O’s events 1-21 and Heinrich’s events H1-H6 in the southern SCS that reflected the quick climate change in short time scale since the last interglacial stage is revealed, which indicates that in the last 200 ka in the southern SCS and the Arctic area there was tele-connection of paleoclimate and the unstability of the Western Pacific Warm Pool. This note shows that the sedimentary layers order of this sea area classified by color identification and by oxygen isotope stratum has the very good corresponding relation. The color feature of sediment changes along with the climate and the former 展开更多
关键词 sOUTHERN south china sea sEDIMENTARY sequence quick climate change D/O and Heinrich events Toba’s VOLCANIC record.
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中国国家科技计划资助国际合作特征分析——基于中美合著SCI论文计量分析的视角 被引量:7
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作者 王文平 刘云 蒋海军 《情报杂志》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第10期72-76,46,共6页
基于SCI中美科技合作论文数据,对中国国家科技计划于2008-2012年资助的中美合著SCI论文的数量、领域分布、国别分布、联合资助等进行分析,研究发现我国科技计划资助的中美合作研究具有规模大、范围广、领域宽等特点,并呈现以中国为主导... 基于SCI中美科技合作论文数据,对中国国家科技计划于2008-2012年资助的中美合著SCI论文的数量、领域分布、国别分布、联合资助等进行分析,研究发现我国科技计划资助的中美合作研究具有规模大、范围广、领域宽等特点,并呈现以中国为主导的国际合作特征,同时,也发现我国科技计划在一定程度上存在重复资助、对多边合作资助比例偏低等问题。最后,提出了我国科技计划国际合作的改进建议。 展开更多
关键词 国家科技计划 中美科技合作科研资助 国际合作
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National Program of Action for Child Development in China in the 1990s(Abstract)
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《Women of China》 1994年第9期7-8,共2页
I. Introduction 1. The children of today will run the families of the 21st century. Their survival, protection and development decide, for the most part, the quality of a people and lay the foundation of human progres... I. Introduction 1. The children of today will run the families of the 21st century. Their survival, protection and development decide, for the most part, the quality of a people and lay the foundation of human progress as a whole. The 1990 World Summit for Children endorsed the "World Declaration on the Survival, Protection and Development of Children" and the "Plan of Action for Implementing the World Declaration on the Survival, Protection and Development of Children in the 1990s," (hereinafter referred to as "Declaration" and "Plan of Action" for short), In March 1991, Premier Li Peng signed the two documents on behalf of the Chinese Government, making a solemn commitment to this major undertaking. 2. The wholesome development of children has a bearing upon the future of China. The Communist Party of China and the Chinese Government have always paid close attention to the survival, 展开更多
关键词 ABsTRACT national program of Action for Child Development in china in the 1990s
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Mangshan loess on China's Central Plain and its response to tectonic movement and climate 被引量:2
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作者 吴锡浩 蒋复初 +2 位作者 肖华国 薛滨 孙东怀 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 1999年第5期465-473,共9页
The Mangshan loess on China’s Central Plain, located on the transitional zone between the uplifting Loess Plateau and the subsiding North China Plain, is a proximal sandy loess transported from the fanhead of alluvia... The Mangshan loess on China’s Central Plain, located on the transitional zone between the uplifting Loess Plateau and the subsiding North China Plain, is a proximal sandy loess transported from the fanhead of alluvial fan in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and has recorded the coupling effect of the tectonics and climate over the last 200 ka. An abrupt environmental change indicated by the abrupt rise of deposit rate in the late penultimate glaciation, about 150 ka BP, took place; that is, the Yellow River downcut and moved eastwards through the Sanmenxia Gorge and transported abundant materials from the Loess Plateau to form paleosol S1 with a thickness of 15.7 m and loess L1 with a thickness of 77.3 m. The loess-paleosol sequence at Mangshan has not only recorded detailed climate responses of this area to the East Asian monsoon, but also reflects the tectonogenetic environmental effect caused by the trunk stream of the Yellow River cutting through Sanmenxia Gorge into sea. 展开更多
关键词 chinas CENTRAL PLAIN Mangshan LOEss TECTONIC movement climatIC change environmental effect.
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The progress of human geography in China under the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
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作者 黄耿志 冷疏影 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第12期1735-1756,共22页
This paper analyzes the role of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC) in advancing human geography in China by focusing on five key research areas: land use, urban systems and urban agglomeration, ... This paper analyzes the role of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC) in advancing human geography in China by focusing on five key research areas: land use, urban systems and urban agglomeration, economic globalization, climate change and social and cultural geographies. All NSFC-funded human geography programs related to these five topics from 1986 to 2017 comprise the sample for analysis, and the research topics, content, teams, and peer-reviewed journal publications supported by these programs are investigated. Specifically, this paper analyzes the NSFC's promotion of the expansion of research topics in response to national developmental needs and the shifting frontiers of human geography research internationally, its enhancement of interdisciplinary research, and its contributions to the assembly of specialized research teams. The paper also reports important progress in Chinese human geography over the past 30 years through the institutional lens of the NSFC, revealing major characteristics and trends in the discipline. The paper concludes by calling for further collaboration between the research community and the NSFC for the development of a locally suitable and globally influential Chinese human geography. 展开更多
关键词 national Natural science Foundation of china human geography land use urban systems urban agglomeration economic globalization climate change social and cultural geographies
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应对气候变化对未来中国农业生产影响的问题和挑战 被引量:37
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作者 潘根兴 高民 +5 位作者 胡国华 魏钦平 杨晓光 张文忠 周广胜 邹建文 《农业环境科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2011年第9期1707-1712,共6页
通过整合农业科学界从不同行业产业角度和不同的影响方面对气候变化可能带来农业生产影响的分析资料,梳理和辨析了气候变化对农业生产影响的途径和机理,提出了气候变化对中国国家尺度农业影响的"发酵"效应假设:气候变化因子... 通过整合农业科学界从不同行业产业角度和不同的影响方面对气候变化可能带来农业生产影响的分析资料,梳理和辨析了气候变化对农业生产影响的途径和机理,提出了气候变化对中国国家尺度农业影响的"发酵"效应假设:气候变化因子间相互作用与交错叠加,产业的传递和反馈,可能带来不利效应的严重放大;未来气候变化下中国农业面临的基本问题将是:农业技术进步的迟滞性和农业生产能力的波动性,稳定农业生产水平和粮食供应能力将愈来愈困难。讨论和建议了应对气候变化的若干国家战略,这些战略应基于气候变化对中国农业生产的影响的敏感性行业和地区,气候变化的突出性趋势的认识。防患和应对极端性气象灾害事件将成为应对气候变化对农业影响的首要任务,需要加强研究和技术储备,同时迫切需要新的组织和运行机制全面开展气候变化对中国农业生产影响的试验和技术开发研究。 展开更多
关键词 气候变化 中国农业 农业生产 适应和应对 国家战略
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中国地面气温变化趋势中的城市化影响偏差 被引量:66
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作者 张爱英 任国玉 +3 位作者 周江兴 初子莹 任玉玉 唐国利 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2010年第6期957-966,共10页
在中国大陆2300个气象台站网中遴选出138个参考站,对614个国家级气象站和138个参考站1961 2004年的月平均气温资料进行了非均一性检验和订正,利用REOF(旋转主分量)分析方法,按照气温变率空间相关特点将中国大陆划分为6大区域,并采用经... 在中国大陆2300个气象台站网中遴选出138个参考站,对614个国家级气象站和138个参考站1961 2004年的月平均气温资料进行了非均一性检验和订正,利用REOF(旋转主分量)分析方法,按照气温变率空间相关特点将中国大陆划分为6大区域,并采用经纬度网格面积加权平均法分别建立了中国大陆及其6大区域平均的国家站和参考站的月、季、年地面气温时间序列,对国家站和参考站序列进行了对比分析。结果表明,由国家站资料建立的中国大陆年平均气温序列在44年间线性增温率为0.278 C/10 a,而由参考站资料建立的中国大陆年平均气温序列同期增温率为0.202℃/10 a。就中国大陆平均来说,1961 2004年国家级站城市化增温率为0.076 C/10 a,占全部增温率的27.33%。在6大区域中,除北疆区外,其他地区年平均城市化增温率均非常显著。其中城市化影响最大的地区是江淮区,年平均热岛增温率为0.086℃/10 a,其后依次为东北华北区、青藏高原区、华南区和西北区,年平均热岛增温率分别达到0.060、0.059、0.042和0.042℃/10 a。各区域年平均热岛增温贡献率由大到小排列依次为江淮区55.48%、青藏高原区23.23%、华南区23.20%、东北华北区15.35%、西北区13.73%、北疆区-1.57%。因此,中国大陆20世纪60年代初以来城市化造成的国家站地面气温增暖偏差非常显著,今后应予以订正,以便建立代表背景气候变化的区域平均气温序列。 展开更多
关键词 中国 国家气象站 气候变化 城市化增温 地面气温
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IPCC共享社会经济路径下中国和分省人口变化预估 被引量:54
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作者 姜彤 赵晶 +7 位作者 景丞 曹丽格 王艳君 孙赫敏 王安乾 黄金龙 苏布达 王润 《气候变化研究进展》 CSCD 北大核心 2017年第2期128-137,共10页
基于2010年第六次中国人口普查数据,采用IPCC发布的可持续发展(SSP1)、中度发展(SSP2)、局部或不一致发展(SSP3)、不均衡发展(SSP4)、常规发展(SSP5)这5种共享社会经济路径,率定人口-发展-环境分析(PDE)模型中的人口生育率、死亡率、迁... 基于2010年第六次中国人口普查数据,采用IPCC发布的可持续发展(SSP1)、中度发展(SSP2)、局部或不一致发展(SSP3)、不均衡发展(SSP4)、常规发展(SSP5)这5种共享社会经济路径,率定人口-发展-环境分析(PDE)模型中的人口生育率、死亡率、迁移率、教育水平等参数,对2011—2100年中国和31个省(区/市)人口变化进行预估。结果表明:1)不同SSP路径下,中国人口均呈先增加后减少的趋势,在高气候变化挑战的SSP3路径下人口最多,于2035年达到峰值,约14.27亿;在以适应挑战为主的SSP4路径下,人口出现最小值7.02亿。2)SSP1、SSP4和SSP5路径下人均寿命长,人口老龄化严重,其中SSP1和SSP5路径下人均教育水平高,到2100年教育水平在大学以上人口约占总人口的60%;SSP2路径下各年龄段分布比较均衡;SSP3路径下新生人口数量较多,劳动力充足,但教育水平较低。3)到2100年,SPP3路径下广西人口呈现最大值1.13亿,在其他路径下广东人口最多,达1.29亿。 展开更多
关键词 气候变化 人口预估 共享社会经济路径(ssPs) 省(区/市) 中国
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中国雨日变化趋势的分形研究 被引量:26
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作者 冯新灵 罗隆诚 +2 位作者 冯自立 刘鹏 邱丽丽 《自然灾害学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2009年第6期112-117,共6页
利用1951-2002年中国752个台站的雨日资料,运用分形理论和R/S分析法,研究并预测了中国五大降水区年雨日的气候变化趋势。研究表明:中国五大降水区未来的年雨日变化趋势与过去50 a的变化有着很好的自相似性。为了更深入研究雨日的未来的... 利用1951-2002年中国752个台站的雨日资料,运用分形理论和R/S分析法,研究并预测了中国五大降水区年雨日的气候变化趋势。研究表明:中国五大降水区未来的年雨日变化趋势与过去50 a的变化有着很好的自相似性。为了更深入研究雨日的未来的变化,设计了两项Hurst指数试验,用两项试验结果与年雨日年际变化趋势的对应关系来推断未来的变化趋势及其转折与突变。结果表明:中国五大降水区年雨日有着一致的减少趋势,但其变化呈现显著的地域分异特征。依照五大降水区的气候倾向率,西北区、西南区、青藏高原区、东部北方区、东部南方区未来平均每10 a雨日减少分别为4.1d,11.4d,3.7d,6.8d和5.9d,其中西南区年雨日减少最多。期间,中国五大降水区虽有气候变化的转折,但不存在雨日气候变化的突变点。 展开更多
关键词 雨日 气候变化 分形 R/s分析 Hurst指数试验 中国
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