Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.

Summary of Recent Climate Change Studies on the Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles in the Terrestrial Ecosystem and Ocean in China

This article reviews recent advances over the past and their relationship to climate change in China. The was 0.19-0.26 Pg C yr-1 for the 1980s and 1990s. 4 years in the study of the carbon-nitrogen cycling net carbon sink in the Chinese terrestrial ecosystem Both natural wetlands and the rice-paddy regions emitted 1.76 Tg and 6.62 Tg of CH4 per year for the periods 1995 2004 and 2005 2009, respectively. China emitted -1.1 Tg N20-N yr-1 to the atmosphere in 2004. Land soil contained -8.3 Pg N. The excess nitrogen stored in farmland of the Yangtze River basin reached 1.51 Tg N and 2.67 Tg N in 1980 and 1990, respectively. The outer Yangtze Estuary served as a moderate or significant sink of atmospheric CO2 except in autumn. Phytoplankton could take up carbon at a rate of 6.4 ×1011 kg yr-1 in the China Sea. The global ocean absorbed anthropogenic CO2 at the rates of 1.64 and 1.73 Pg C yr-1 for two sinmlations in the 1990s. Land net ecosystem production in China would increase until the mid-21st century then would decrease gradually under future climate change scenarios. This research should be strengthened in the future, including collection of more observation data, measurement of the soil organic carbon （SOC） loss and sequestration, evaluation of changes in SOC in deep soil layers, and the impacts of grassland management, carbon-nitrogen coupled effects, and development and improvement of various component models and of the coupled carbon cycle-climate model.

The temporal and spatial patterns of terrestrial net primary productivity in China

In this paper, we use CEVSA, a process-based model, which has been validated on regional and global scales, to explore the temporal and spatial patterns of Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and its responses to interannual climate fluctuations in China's terrestrial ecosystems over the period 1981-1998. The estimated results suggest that, in this study period, the averaged annual total NPP is about 3.09 Gt C/yr -1 and average NPP is about 342 g C/m 2 . The results also showed that the precipitation was the key factor determining the spatial distribution and temporal trends of NPP. Temporally, the total NPP exhibited a slowly increasing trend. In some ENSO years (e.g. 1982, 1986, 1997) NPP decreased clearly compared to the previous year, but the relationship between ENSO and NPP is complex due to the integrated effects of monsoons and regional differentiation. Spatially, the relatively high NPP occurred at the middle high latitudes, the low latitudes and the lower appeared at the middle latitudes. On national scale, precipitation is the key control factor on NPP variations and there exists a weak correlation between NPP and temperature, but regional responses are greatly different.

Modification of Costanza's model of valuing ecosystem services and its application in China

In the past,evaluations of ecosystem functions were mostly based on Costanza's model,whereas the spatial,quality and temporal characteristics of regional ecosystems were not considered in the model.Focusing on these issues,coefficients of regional difference,spatial heterogeneity and willingness-to-pay(WTP)were established to modify Costanza's model,and a new comprehensive valuation model of ecosystem functions is proposed.The analytical results indicate that the comprehensive model could evaluate regional ecosystem functions in China accurately and provide more helpful information for decision-making.The empirical study on Zhangbei County in Hebei Province shows that the intensive human activities could limit the provision of ecosystem functions while the planned ecological programs might promote the restoration of ecosystem functions.

CHINA'S VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE TO GLOBAL CHANGE: RESEARCH PROGRESS & PROSPECTS

This paper presents the latest developments in the re search progress on mechanisms by which natural plants and crops respond to the doubled concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, resultant climatic change and the modeling of vegetation and eco-systems in China. In addition, it points out that the future study on global change and terrestrial ecosystems should stress m(?)iti-disciplinary teamwork and inter-discipline penetration. Finally, the paper emphasizes 10 research realms in the field to be enhanced in the future.

Changes in soil organic carbon of terrestrial ecosystems in China:A mini-review

The present study provides an overview of existing literature on changes in soil organic carbon(SOC) of various terrestrial ecosystems in China.Datasets from the literature suggest that SOC stocks in forest,grassland,shrubland and cropland increased between the early 1980s and the early 2000s,amounting to(71±19) Tg·a-1.Conversion of marshland to cropland in the Sanjiang Plain of northeast China resulted in SOC loss of(6±2) Tg·a-1 during the same period.Nevertheless,large uncertainties exist in these estimates,especially for the SOC changes in the forest,shrubland and grassland.To reduce uncertainty,we suggest that future research should focus on:(i) identifying land use changes throughout China with high spatiotemporal resolution,and measuring the SOC loss and sequestration due to land use change;(ii) estimating the changes in SOC of shrubland and non-forest trees(i.e.,cash,shelter and landscape trees);(iii) quantifying the impacts of grassland management on the SOC pool;(iv) evaluating carbon changes in deep soil layers;(v) projecting SOC sequestration potential;and(vi) developing carbon budget models for better estimating the changes in SOC of terrestrial ecosystems in China.

New Developments and Perspectives in Physical Geography in China

Physical geography is the cornerstone of geography. In this article, the starting points of disciplines in physical geography in recent years in China are discussed. With the coupling of systems set as the research object, and sustainable development as the ultimate goal, the upgrade of physical geography can be deconstructed into three steps: deepen physical geography from the perspective of pattern-process coupling, improve the focus of physical geography from ecosystem processes to ecosystem services, and increase the understanding of the physical geography ‘pattern, process, service, sustainability' research cascade. The incorporation of human activities into physical geographic processes is essential to conduct integrated analysis on physical and human factors at different scales. The development of ecosystem service models that couple supply-demand and sustainable development are of great importance to bridge the role of ecosystem services between the natural environment and human well-being. Moreover, human-land systems and sustainable development have become the core areas and frontiers of integrated physical geography and even geography in general. China faces the great strategic demand of constructing an ecological civilization in a new era, and the development of the disciplines of physical geography should give full access to the advantages of intersecting and comprehensive disciplines, focus on the human-land system patterns,processes, and services in key research areas, and provide disciplinary support for regional, national, and global sustainable development.

Spatial variation in annual actual evapotranspiration of terrestrial ecosystems in China: Results from eddy covariance measurements

Understanding the spatial variation in annual actual evapotranspiration （AET） and its influencing factors is crucial for a better understanding of hydrological processes and water resources management. By synthesizing ecosystem-level observations of eddy-covariance flux sites in China （a total of 61 sites）, we constructed the most complete AET dataset in China up to now. Based on this dataset, we quantified the statistic characteristics of AET and water budgets （defined as the ratio of AET to annual mean precipitation （MAP）, AET/MAP） of terrestrial ecosystems in China. Results showed that AET differed significantly among both different vegetation types and climate types in China, with overall mean AET of 534.7＋232.8 mm yr1. AET/MAP also differed significantly among different climate types, but there were no distinct differences in AET/MAP values across vegetation types, with mean AET/MAP of 0.82＋0.28 for non-irrigated ecosystems. We further investigated how the main climatic factors and vegetation attributes control the spatial variation in AET. Our findings revealed that the spatial variation of AET in China was closely correlated with the geographical patterns of climate and vegetation, in which the effects of total annual net radiation （Ro）, MAP and mean annual air temperature （MAT） were dominant. Thus, we proposed an empirical equation to describe the spatial patterns of AET in China, which could explain about 84% of the spatial variation in AET of terrestrial ecosystems in China. Based on the constructed dataset, we also evaluated the uncertainties of five published global evapotranspiration products in simulating site-specific AET in China. Results showed that large biases in site-specific AET values existed for all five global evapotranspiration products, which indicated that it is necessary to involve more observation data of China in their parameterization or validation, while our AET dataset would provide a data source for it.

A New Stage for China’s Poverty Alleviation

Atotal of 13.86 million rural poor were raised out of poverty, and 2.8 million people living in remote areas, areas frequently hit by natural disasters, or areas with fragile ecosystems were relocated and are living well-off lives in 2018, said Premier Li Keqiang in the Report on the Work of the Government he delivered on March 5.

Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century

The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmos-phere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The results show that in the coming 100 a, for SRES B2 scenario and constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem in China will be decreased slowly, and vegetation and soil carbon storage as well as net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will also be decreased. The carbon sink for China terrestrial ecosystem in the beginning of the 20th century will become totally a carbon source by the year of 2020, while for B2 scenario and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, NPP for China will increase continuously from 2.94 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 20th century to 3.99 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 21st century, and vegetation and soil carbon storage will increase to 110.3 GtC. NEP in China will keep rising during the first and middle periods of the 21st century, and reach the peak around 2050s, then will decrease gradually and approach to zero by the end of the 21st century.

Spatial patterns of terrestrial net ecosystem productivity in China during 1981―2000

As the third largest country in the world, China has highly variable environmental condition and eco- logical pattern in both space and time. Quantification of the spatial-temporal pattern and dynamic of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle in China is of great significance to regional and global carbon budget. In this study, we used a high-resolution climate database and an improved ecosystem process-based model to quantify spatio-temporal pattern and dynamic of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in China and its responses to climate change during 1981 to 2000. The results showed that NEP increased from north to south and from northeast to southwest. Positive NEP (carbon sinks) occurred in the west of Southwest China, southeastern Tibet, Sanjiang Plain, Da Hinggan Mountains and the mid-west of North China. Negative NEP (carbon sources) were mainly found in Central China, the south of Southwest China, the north of Xinjiang, west and north of Inner Mongolia, and parts of North China. From the 1980s to 1990s, the increasing trend of NEP occurred in the middle of Northeast China Plain and the Loess Plateau and decreasing trends mainly occurred in a greater part of Central China. In the study period, natural forests had minimal carbon uptake, while grassland and shrublands accounted for nearly three fourths of the total carbon terrestrial uptakes in China during 1981―2000.

Estimation of China’s terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink:Methods,progress and prospects

China announced its national goal to reach the peak of carbon emission by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,during the General Assembly of the United Nations in September 2020.In this context,the potential of the carbon sink in China’s terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions has attracted unprecedented attention from scientific communities,policy makers and the public.Here,we reviewed the assessments on China’s terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink,with focus on the principles,frameworks and methods of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink estimates,as well as the recent progress and existing problems.Looking forward,we identified critical issues for improving the accuracy and precision of China’s terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink,in order to serve the more realistic policy making in pathways to achieve carbon neutrality for China.

Variation of terrestrial ecosystem recorded by stable carbon isotopes of fossils in northern China during the Quaternary

Stable carbon isotopes of C3 and C4 plants have completely distinct δ13C values respectively. Carbonate in tooth enamel of herbivorous mammals is significantly and regularly enriched in 13C compared to source carbon. As a result, we can reconstruct distributions of C3 and C4 plants in geological history based on carbon isotopes of mammalian tooth enamel. Carbon isotopes of 70 mammalian tooth enamel samples from 11 Quaternary localities in northern China are analyzed. This analysis indicates that C3 plants were dominant in the terrestrial ecosystem of northern China during the Quaternary, which is completely different from Pakistan with relatively close latitudes where C4 plants were absolutely dominant. The great difference was caused by the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. A simulation implied that a marked temperature decrease would happen in the north side of the Tibetan Plateau, but a temperature increase in the south side. The warming condition caused the transition from C3 to C4 plants in Pakistan

基于IBIS模型的1960-2006年中国陆地生态系统碳收支格局研究

定量评估区域陆地生态系统碳收支是生态系统与全球变化科学研究的重要科学问题之一。利用集成生物圈模型(IBIS)对中国陆地生态系统历史时期(1960—2006年)气候及CO2浓度变化条件下碳收支时空变异特征和发展趋势进行了模拟分析。结果表明,1960—2006年间,中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力(NPP)总量水平约为2.46 Gt C/a,总体呈上升趋势,在东南及西南地区最高,其次是长白山及大小兴安岭地区,西北内陆地区的净初级生产力水平最低;1960—2006年间,中国陆地生态系统净生态系统生产力(NEP)总量水平约为0.11 Gt C/a,总体呈上升趋势,绝大部分区域表现为碳汇效应,大兴安岭、小兴安岭、长白山、东南地区及西南部分地区碳汇效应较强,西北内陆区表现出弱碳源效应,温带湿润区、高原温带区和高原寒带区碳汇效应呈显著上升趋势;中国11个气候区,NPP与降水均为正相关,除了中温带湿润区、寒温带湿润区、高原温带和高原寒带外,降水是限制植被生长的主要因子。除了高原寒带外,NEP同样表现出与降水的更强相关性,与气温的相关性较弱。经验证,IBIS模型对于中国陆地生态系统碳收支的模拟结果合理,可以为科学预测生态系统的固碳潜力和制定区域碳管理政策提供科学依据。

结合自下而上和自上而下方法的中国陆地碳汇估算

利用自下而上的生态系统过程模型BEPS和VEGAS以及自上而下的OCO-2 v10 MIP中多个大气反演优化结果,评估了中国2015~2019年碳汇规模及其空间分布,并结合中国四大地理分区边界和土地利用数据,进一步梳理了中国四大分区以及森林、草地、灌丛和农田4种主要生态系统的碳汇强度。总体上,2015~2019年期间,中国陆地碳汇呈现出东南高西北低的空间分布格局,BEPS、VEGAS和OCO-2 v10 MIP模型中估算的年均碳汇分别为0.38±0.04 Pg(C)a^(-1)、0.22±0.03 Pg(C)a^(-1)和0.54±0.05 Pg(C)a^(-1),这表明自上而下和自下而上的估计之间存在一定的差异。在夏季(6~8月),中国陆地生态系统对CO_(2)的吸收最强。在区域碳汇统计上,BEPS和OCO-2 v10 MIP的集合平均结果一致显示中国南方地区碳汇规模最大,而VEGAS表明中国北方地区碳汇较强。另外,BEPS和OCO-2 v10 MIP的集合平均结果表明,森林生态系统碳汇最强,强度分别为0.21±0.02 Pg(C)a^(-1)(47.2%)和0.26±0.02 Pg(C)a^(-1)(46.0%)。VEGAS则显示森林生态系统碳汇为0.06±0.04 Pg(C)a^(-1)(23.9%),略低于农田生态系统。总体而言,森林生态系统是中国显著的碳汇区域,但不同方法欲得到一致的碳汇分布和强度仍任重道远。

2000−2020年华北干旱半干旱区碳储量变化特征及影响因素

生态工程背景下的碳储量空间格局变化及其影响因素识别是当前研究的焦点和前沿议题.华北干旱半干旱区作为退耕还林(草)工程成效显著区域,其碳储量动态变化与影响因素对促进碳汇以实现可持续发展具有重大意义.本研究通过修正碳密度数据,利用InVEST模型,估算了华北干旱半干旱区2000−2020年碳储量并分析了其时空变化特征,同时利用地理探测器定量探讨了影响碳储量变化的因素.结果表明:①2000−2020年华北干旱半干旱区土地利用类型的改变主要体现在耕地、未利用地和水域的减少以及林地、灌木、草地和建设用地的增加,林地和草地面积占比之和由52.94%增至54.47%,建设用地面积增幅最大,达60.59%.②华北干旱半干旱区2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年总碳储量分别为7542.46 Tg、7570.94 Tg、7733.11 Tg、7909.20 Tg、8210.84 Tg,平均变化速率为33.501 Tg/a,21年间累计增加668.38 Tg.③碳储量稳定区域的面积占92.39%;碳储量增加区域面积占5.17%,主要分布于河流沿岸的绿洲地区及山地林区,与林地、草地转入区域存在一定重叠;碳储量减少区域面积占2.45%,主要位于乌兰布和沙漠中草地-未利用地交界处以及河北省居民用地.④植被覆盖度是影响华北干旱半干旱区碳汇的首要因素,其次为年均降水量和累计造林面积.不同因子交互作用后会增强单因子对碳汇空间分异的解释力,表明区域内碳汇受到多种因素共同影响.研究显示,华北干旱半干旱区生态修复工程成效显著,碳储量持续增加,其碳汇能力主要受限于自然因素,但生态工程等积极人为措施也能显著提升碳汇.

科技经济融合机制与路径——基于扎根理论的“科创中国”多案例分析

科技经济融合是创新驱动发展战略的核心要义,是经济高质量发展的必然要求。以2020—2021年19个“科创中国”典型案例为研究对象并以其它调研材料为补充,从“创新主体—创新资源—创新环境”3个维度出发,运用扎根理论这一质性研究方法,借助NVivo11软件辅助编码,探索科技经济融合机制与路径。研究发现:科技经济融合存在多元主体协同合作机制、市场主导资源融通机制和创新生态系统动态演化机制,三大机制之间相互作用、相互联系,共同为资源对接、平台搭建和生态营造这3条可选择的路径提供机制保障,以促进科技需求和供给有效对接,为科技经济融合提供系统性支撑。

2010s中国陆地生态系统碳密度数据集

中国作为陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,其碳收支情况将会对全球碳循环产生深刻影响。本文通过收集整理期刊文献中的碳密度数据,同时结合课题组相关实验测试数据,构建了一套全面系统的植被和土壤碳密度数据集。本数据集覆盖了森林、草地、农田、湿地和灌丛等主要生态系统类型,包含了植被地上碳密度、植被地下碳密度和不同深度(0–20 cm和0–100 cm)土壤有机碳密度。2010s中国陆地生态系统碳密度数据集的建立和共享,为区域植被生物量和生态系统碳储量评估,生态系统质量评估,以及模型优化提供了重要的基础数据。

Terrestrial vegetation carbon sinks in China,1981―2000

Using China's ground observations,e.g.,forest inventory,grassland resource,agricultural statistics,climate,and satellite data,we estimate terrestrial vegetation carbon sinks for China's major biomes between 1981 and 2000.The main results are in the following:(1)Forest area and forest biomass car-bon(C)stock increased from 116.5×10^(6) ha and 4.3 Pg C(1 Pg C=10^(15) g C)in the early 1980s to 142.8×10^(6) ha and 5.9 Pg C in the early 2000s,respectively.Forest biomass carbon density increased form 36.9 Mg C/ha(1 Mg C=10^(6) g C)to 41.0 Mg C/ha,with an annual carbon sequestration rate of 0.075 Pg C/a.Grassland,shrub,and crop biomass sequestrate carbon at annual rates of 0.007 Pg C/a,0.014―0.024 Pg C/a,and 0.0125―0.0143 Pg C/a,respectively.(2)The total terrestrial vegetation C sink in China is in a range of 0.096―0.106 Pg C/a between 1981 and 2000,accounting for 14.6%―16.1%of carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emitted by China's industry in the same period.In addition,soil carbon sink is estimated at 0.04―0.07 Pg C/a.Accordingly,carbon sequestration by China's terrestrial ecosystems(vegetation and soil)offsets 20.8%―26.8%of its industrial CO_(2) emission for the study period.(3)Considerable uncertainties exist in the present study,especially in the estimation of soil carbon sinks,and need further intensive investigation in the future.

An analysis of the spatial and temporal changes in Chinese terrestrial ecosystem service functions

Since Westman(1977) and Ehrlich(1982) put forward the concepts of "the service of nature" and "ecosystem service functions",respectively,methods for conducting value accounting for them,and their practical application have become the subjects of intense study.Based on an overview of available research findings,we discuss three scientific hypotheses.First,the terrestrial ecosystem offers both positive and negative service functions.Second,changes in terrestrial ecosystem service functions lie not only in the number of ecosystem types and the coverage area of each type,but also in their quality.Third,the value of terrestrial ecosystem service functions should be assessed both in terms of the value stocked and the value added.We collected land use data from China during the period 1999-2008,and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data based on remote sensing images from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies for the same period.We then calculated and analyzed spatial and temporal changes in China's terrestrial ecosystem service values over the 10-year period.Considering temporal change,the total value(stocked) of China's terrestrial ecosystem service functions decreased from 6.82 trillion Yuan RMB in 1999 to 6.57 trillion Yuan RMB in 2008.During that period,the positive value decreased by 240.17 billion Yuan RMB and the negative value increased by 8.85 billion Yuan RMB.The decrease in total value lies mainly in the humidity control,soil formation,and waste recycling functions.The total value(added) of China's terrestrial ecosystem service functions increased by 4.31 billion Yuan RMB in 2000,but decreased by 0.13 billion Yuan RMB in 2008(based on the constant price of China in 1999).The value(added) was a negative figure.From the perspective of spatial change,we can see that the supply of China's terrestrial ecosystem service functions fell slightly over the past 10 years,mainly in Northeast and Southern China.As a result of human activities on ecosystems,the loss of ecosystem service functions' value was relatively prominent in Shanxi and Gansu provinces,compared with an increase in value in Shaanxi Province.Terrestrial ecosystem service functions' value per unit area was relatively high in mid-and East China,showing a prominent spatial change over the 10-year period,but low in Western China.Some conclusions are drawn after an in-depth analysis of the factors causing the spatial and temporal changes in China's terrestrial ecosystem service functions,in the hope that our suggestions will be helpful for the management of China's terrestrial ecosystems.