Critical chain construction with multi-resource constraints based on portfolio technology in South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Recently, the critical chain study has become a hot issue in the project management research field. The construction of the critical chain with multi-resource constraints is a new research subject. According to the system analysis theory and project portfolio theory, this paper discusses the creation of project portfolios based on the similarity principle and gives the definition of priority in multi-resource allocation based on quantitative analysis. A model with multi-resource constraints, which can be applied to the critical chain construction of the A-bid section in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, was proposed. Contrast analysis with the comprehensive treatment construction method and aggressive treatment construction method was carried out. This paper also makes suggestions for further research directions and subjects, which will be useful in improving the theories in relevant research fields.

Reliability model of organization management chain of South-to-North Water Diversion Project during construction period

In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection） of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.

Land Cover Changes and Drivers in the Water Source Area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China from 2000 to 2015

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MR-SNWDP)in China,with construction beginning in 2003,diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for residential,agriculture and industrial use.The water source area of the MR-SNWDP is the region that is most sensitive to and most affected by the construction of this water diversion project.In this study,we used Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM)and HJ-1 A/B images from 2000 to 2015 by an object-based approach with a hierarchical classification method for mapping land cover in the water source area.The changes in land cover were illuminated by transfer matrixes,single dynamic degree,slope zones and fractional vegetation cover(FVC).The results indicated that the area of cropland decreased by 31%and was replaced mainly by shrub over the past 15 years,whereas forest and settlements showed continuous increases of 29.2% and 77.7%,respectively.The changes in cropland were obvious in all slope zones and decreased most remarkably(–43.8%)in the slope zone above 25°.Compared to the FVC of forest and shrub,significant improvement was exhibited in the FVC of grassland,with a growth rate of 16.6%.We concluded that local policies,including economic development,water conservation and immigration resulting from the construction of the MR-SNWDP,were the main drivers of land cover changes;notably,they stimulated the substantial and rapid expansion of settlements,doubled the wetlands and drove the transformation from cropland to settlements in immigration areas.

Penalty model for delay of bidding section construction period in South-to-North Water Diversion Eastern Route Project from perspective of programs

According to the multi-project and program management theory, this paper analyzes the program generation principle and establishes a program based on progress goals. On the basis of the present situation of calculation of penalty for delay of the bidding section construction period with the critical path method, we studied the effects of contractor-induced delay of the bidding section construction period in detail, including the effects on the construction period of the bidding section itself, the earliest start times of the next bidding section and other subsequent bidding sections, and the construction period of the program, and then constructed a penalty model for delay of the bidding section construction period from the perspective of programs. Using the penalty model, we conducted a practical analysis of penalty for delay of the construction period of the Baoying station program in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The model can help determine the amount of penalty for delay of the construction period in bidding sections scientifically and reasonably,

IMPACTS OF THE SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER DIVERSION PROJECTS (MIDDLE ROUTE)ON THE WATER ENVIRONMENT OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE HANJIANG RIVER

In this paper, according to the rule of unbalanced sediment transport and the analysis of field data, different water diversion schemes were theoretically studied, including the erosion and sedimentation trend as well as their impacts on the environment of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. The results showed that the 95×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme will cause less erosion and water level decrease than the 15×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme. Using a water diversion scheme of 95×10 8m 3, the decrease of water quantity can impact the river hydrodynamic regime substantially and the environments of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River will be greatly affected. It is therefore necessary to develop new water resources or build projects to meet the need of the environment and the needs for navigation.

Impact of the eastern water diversion from the south to the north project on the saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary in China

The south to the north project (WDP) on the saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary is studied by the improved three-dimensionai (3D) numerical model.The net unit width flux in the Changjiang Estuary as well as the sectional salt flux is calculated in the North Branch (NB),the South Branch (SB),the North Channel (NC),the South Channel (SC),the North Passage (NP) and the South Passage (SP),respectively.The net seaward water flux in the SB is reduced,and the net water flux spilling over from the NB to the SB is enhanced after the eastern WDP.Under the mean river discharge condition in the dry season,the net salt flux spilling over from the NB to the SB is increased by 2.09 t/s and 0.52 t/s during the spring and neap tides,respectively,due to the eastern WDP.The saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary is enhanced by the eastern WDP.Compared with that during the spring tide,the net water diversion ratio during the neap tide in the NC is smaller,and thus the enhancement of the saltwater intrusion by the eastern WDP is smaller in the NC,and larger in the NP and the SP.The tidally averaged surface salinity at the water intakes of the Dongfengxisha Reservoir,the Chenhang Reservoir and the Qingcaosha Reservoir rises both during the spring and neap tides.

Critical discharge at Datong for controlling operation of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in dry seasons

Previous research shows that there is a strong correlation between saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary and discharge at Datong. In the near future, the discharge of the Yangtze River during dry seasons will decrease due to the construction and operation of large water diversion projects, including the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, which will further exacerbate saltwater intrusion in the estuary. In this paper, a nested 1D river network model and a 2D saltwater numerical model are used to associate saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary with different values of discharge at Datong. It is concluded that 13 000 m3/s is the critical discharge at Datong for preventing saltwater intrusion and controlling the volume of water transferred by the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Furthermore, based on the analysis of river discharge from Datong to Xuliujing and in consideration of the influence of all of the water diversion projects, operation schemes are proposed for the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project for different hydrological years.

Computing payment for ecosystem services in watersheds: An analysis of the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion in China

Payment for ecosystem services （PES） has attracted considerable attention as an economic incentive for promoting natural resource management recently. As emphasis has been placed on using the incentive-based mechanism by the central government, rapid progress on PES research and practice has been achieved. However PES still faces many difficulties. A key issue is the lack of a fully-fledged theory and method to clearly define the design scope, accounting and feasibility of PES criteria. An improved watershed criteria model was developed in light of research on PES practices in China, investigations on the water source area for the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion and ecosystem services outflows theory. The basic principle of assessment is the direct and opportunity cost for ecological conservation and environmental protection in the water source area deduct nationally-financed PES and internal effect. Then the scope and the criteria methods were determined, and internal effect was put forward to define benefits brought from water source area. Finally, Shiyan City, which is the main water source area for the Project of Water Diversion, was analyzed by this model and its payment was calculated. The results showed that： （1） during 2003–2050, the total direct cost and opportunity cost would reach up to 262.70 billion and 256.33 billion Chinese Yuan （CNY, 2000 constant prices）, i.e., 50.61% and 49.38% of total cost, respectively; （2） Shiyan City would gain 0.23, 0.06 and 0.03 CNY/m3 in 2014–2020, 2021–2030, and 2031–2050, respectively.

On conservation and development of architecture and environment in the construction of large-scale national infrastructure——Exemplified by the Jiangsu Section of the Eastern Route South-to-North Water Diversion Project

The water-diverting route project’s characteristics,natural landscapes,and histories and humanism of the Jiangsu Section of the Eastern Route South-to-North Water Diversion Project were systemically analyzed through proposing and studying the canal culture routes,the water resources heritage corridors,the landscape and recreation corridors,and the town economic corridors.The station areas along the water-diverting route were scientifically zoned and graded through quantitative and qualitative synthetic methods.Both planning compendiums and construction controlling methods were proposed based on the project grades of points,lines,and areas.Conservation and development of architecture and environment in the large-scale national infrastructure construction were explored systemically.Theories and methods of developing harmonious water-supplying functions,ecological functions,landscape effects,and cultural effects of large-scale water resources were examined.

南水北调东线江苏段工程供水成本核算研究

围绕南水北调东线江苏段工程,基于规划与实际调水量、淮水利用比例、泵站开机等基本情况,探讨工程最新成本构成与核算方法,核算南水北调东线江苏段工程供水成本。通过分析各项费用、各个区段在单方水总成本中的占比,明晰供水成本结构特征,并对最易影响固定成本与可变成本变化的费用进行了敏感性分析,为相关供水成本体系研究提供参考。

基于高校思政教学探究南水北调精神传播路径

南水北调精神是南水北调工程建设中集结着建设者智慧和力量的集中体现,是民族精神和时代精神的生动实践。以“大国统筹、人民至上、创新求精、奉献担当”为核心内涵的南水北调精神对于提升高校思政教学质量具有独特意义。将南水北调精神融入高校思政教材、课堂教学和思政学术研讨的理论教学;开展多途径南水北调精神媒体宣传、融入网络思政教育、与思政党建教育相结合的宣传引领;打造南水北调精神实践教育平台、组织南水北调公益志愿服务、与校企协同育人相结合的实践教育,三管齐下推动南水北调精神在高校思政教学中的传播与弘扬。

南水北调东线工程调水潜力分析

为研究南水北调东线工程调水潜力,分析了南水北调东线工程水源之间的源汇关系、水源与用户之间的供需关系、水源与计算单元之间的隶属关系以及输水通道上下游、左右岸之间的水量交换关系,建立了南水北调东线工程优化调度模型,综合考虑东线工程在变化环境和极端水文事件不确定性增加情况下的调水潜力。设置了3种调水潜力分析情景,分别为沿线湖泊丰枯互补优化调度、抽江水优化调度、沿线湖泊丰枯互补与抽江水联合优化调度,分析东线工程调水潜力。结果表明:3种模式调水潜力不同,联合优化调度模式下多年平均调水潜力最大、抽江水优化调度次之、湖泊丰枯互补优化调度最小;3种模式在极端情况下调水潜力均较小,最大年调水潜力仅为0.2亿m^(3)。

南水北调中线渠道综合糙率变化及其应对策略

为辨析南水北调中线工程渠道过流能力变化,基于2019—2023年总干渠水位、流量等观测资料,构建了渠道综合糙率率定模型,分析了渠道综合糙率的总体规律及其对总干渠过流能力的影响。结果表明:总干渠沿线各段渠道的综合糙率存在差异,总体呈现上游大于下游的规律,上游段和下游段渠道综合糙率均值分别为0.0168和0.0157;渠道综合糙率可能随运行时间增加而逐渐增大,采取适当的工程维护或改造措施可降低渠道综合糙率;当总干渠输水流量为设计流量时,渠道综合糙率变化导致中线工程漳河倒虹吸上游约456 km范围渠道超设计水位。为保障工程输水安全,提出了系统开展总干渠过流能力制约机理及挖潜措施研究、适时开展总干渠全线加大流量输水试验、建立渠道综合糙率实时预测系统等应对策略。

1981~2021年南水北调中线工程安阳河以北段冬季冷暖变化特征分析

为更好地开展南水北调中线工程冰期输水调度,基于中线工程沿线8个国家气象站点的1981~2021年冬季日平均气温数据,采用气候平均值、气候倾向率等统计方法,并依据国家冷暖冬等级划分标准,在年度尺度上,对安阳河以北段近41 a来冬季冷暖变化气候特征进行了统计分析。结果表明:①1981~2021年,各站冬季平均气温基本为-5~3℃,在空间上整体呈现南高北低的特征,南北温差基本为3~4℃。②1981~2021年,各站冬季平均气温年际变化规律基本一致,整体上均呈现出波动上升的趋势,增温幅度为0.113~0.713℃/(10 a),整体表现为南北升温速率低,中部升温速率高的特点。③从年代际变化来看,1980年代各站冬季平均气温最低,多为偏冷年份,整体上1980,1990和2010年代表现为升温趋势,2010年代升温最为显著,而2000年代则表现为降温趋势。其中,在2000年代和2010年代,各站冬季平均气温波动频繁,且幅度较大,平均气温标准差均超过了1.0℃。④近41 a区域暖冬年共出现12次,主要在1990年代中期以后,区域冷冬年共出现18次,其中,1980年代最多,1990年代最少,自1990年代末期开始,区域冷冬年、暖冬年时常交替出现,而在2014年后,区域暖冬年明显偏多。研究成果可为南水北调中线工程优化冰期输水调度、提升冬季渠道过流能力提供参考。

Application of SEDEA to evaluation of degree of harmony between water resources and economic development

This paper introduces the method of data envelopment analysis （DEA） for evaluation of the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of the water conservancy area of China＇s South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）. For this evaluation, a super-efficiency DEA （SEDEA） model was developed based on the super-efficiency method. To verify the applicability of the SEDEA model, both the SEDEA model and a normal-efficiency DEA （NEDEA） model were used to evaluate the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of typical cities in the SNWDP water conservancy area. The results show that the SEDEA model ranks the degree of harmony of typical cities more efficiently than the NEDEA model, and thus can better evaluate the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of different cities than the NEDEA model. Furthermore, the SEDEA model can be applied as an operational research tool in regional water resources management.

南水北调西线工程水源区可调水量“十问”

南水北调西线工程是我国“四横三纵”国家水网主骨架尚待建设的最后一环,而水源区可调水量是西线工程规划论证面临的焦点和难点问题。本文从水资源本底条件与演变趋势,生态环境与经济社会发展需水,调蓄水库与输水工程规模,调水对水源区及其下游水资源开发利用、水生态环境、水力发电、航运等方面影响的角度,提出了与水源区可调水量相关的10个问题;以长江上游分布式水文模型为基础,建立了南水北调西线工程水源区可调水量模拟分析模型,力图系统、定量地回答所提问题。本文的主要研究结论有:在仅考虑满足水源区河道内外生态环境和经济社会需水的前提下,“上线+下线”组合方案多年平均可调水量为1.59×10^(10)m^(3),“完全下线”方案在建设岗托水库进行联调时,多年平均可调水量将达到1.74×10^(10)m^(3);在综合考虑调水对水源区水平衡、水力发电和航运影响及其可接受程度后,南水北调西线水源区可调水量为1.22×10^(10)~1.26×10^(10)m^(3)。长远来看,应谋划西南片区水网与国家水网主骨架、“大动脉”的连接与融合,在减小南水北调西线工程调水影响的同时,提高南水北调西线工程的整体供水能力以及对气候变化等外部条件的适应性。

南四湖不同起调水位汛期调水风险传导规律

南水北调东线工程通水以来,有效缓解了山东半岛等地的缺水问题,但水资源供需矛盾依然突出,汛期调水将成为解决该矛盾的方式之一。汛期调水时,湖周河道开闸泄洪,非汛期积累于河道中的污染物随水流下泄入湖,使得流域水环境风险显著增加。为科学支撑东线后续工程汛期调水水环境风险管控和探究湖区内部风险传导机制,以南水北调东线调蓄湖泊南四湖上级湖段为例,构建水环境风险空间传导分析模型,计算相邻子湖区处于不同风险状态组合的概率,定量评价汛期调水时南四湖上级湖流域水环境风险状态,探讨丰、平、枯3种水平年起调水位下水环境风险在南四湖上级湖的传导规律。结果表明:丰水年高水位调水时,南四湖上级湖水环境风险值最小,枯水年最大;高、中水位调水时,呈由低风险传导至中风险、再传导至高风险的逐步传导模式,而低水位调水时,风险由低风险直接传导至高风险;以平水年为例,白马河区至万福河区93%概率为低—中风险增强型传导、7%概率为低—高风险增强型传导。

水网布局下黄河流域应对极端枯水的关键科学问题

变化环境下极端气象水文事件频发,长江、黄河面临同枯风险。在国家水网建设背景下,为提高长江、黄河同枯的极端不利情景下黄河流域水资源安全保障能力,本文分析了长江、黄河两大流域水资源安全面临的现实问题,识别了变化环境下大型流域枯水遭遇—水危机形成—跨流域调水潜力—多线路成网互济—极端枯水下水资源安全保障中亟需破解的关键科学问题,构建了水网布局下黄河流域应对极端枯水的总体研究框架,提出该领域重点研究方向包括:变化环境下长江、黄河极端枯水遭遇规律与空间变异机制,水危机风险多链路传导与复合影响定量评估,极端枯水下跨流域调水挖潜增供,长江和黄河跨流域联合调配与多线路互济精细化调控、极端枯水下流域水资源韧性提升优化调控等。

基于生态补偿的南水北调后续工程水价研究

制定科学合理的跨流域调水工程水价是开展水源区生态补偿的重要途径之一。在现有水价的基础上,新增生态补偿作为水价的重要组成部分,运用机会成本法测算南水北调东线工程水源区生态补偿标准,并引入社会发展阶段系数和政府支付能力系数对其进行修正,构建计入生态补偿的南水北调后续工程水价定价模型。以南水北调东线一期工程胶东干线为例,得到2016、2020年水源区的理论生态补偿标准分别为116.121、199.992亿元,在现行价格基础上水价需分别提高0.93、4.51元/m^(3)。结果表明,生态补偿会耗费大量资金,只有当工程调水能力达到规划设计规模时,持续性调水才能逐步降低供水成本,否则水价会超出受水区的承受范围,工程效益也难以发挥。

北京市南水北调配套工程调蓄工程勘察关键技术

北京市南水北调配套工程调蓄工程是北京市“26213”供水格局的重要组成部分,工程分布于北京市西、北、南不同地区,场地建设环境条件复杂,地层结构分布及组合多样,水文地质条件复杂,工程建设面临诸多地质问题及难题。工程勘察成果全面、涉及面广、涵盖工程勘察综合类的全专业领域,完成专业全面的技术成果文件与研究报告60余册,发表学术论文50余篇,取得七大方面技术创新、30余个技术创新点。勘察总体工作思路、技术路线、研发的创新技术、利用的先进手段等方面具有实践推广价值,特别是对城市复杂地质环境条件下建设城市供水调蓄工程具有借鉴作用。