A comparison of model choice strategies for logistic regression

Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/approach:The study is based on Monte Carlo simulations.The methods are compared in terms of three measures of accuracy:specificity and two kinds of sensitivity.A loss function combining sensitivity and specificity is introduced and used for a final comparison.Findings:The choice of method depends on how much the users emphasize sensitivity against specificity.It also depends on the sample size.For a typical logistic regression setting with a moderate sample size and a small to moderate effect size,either BIC,BICc or Lasso seems to be optimal.Research limitations:Numerical simulations cannot cover the whole range of data-generating processes occurring with real-world data.Thus,more simulations are needed.Practical implications:Researchers can refer to these results if they believe that their data-generating process is somewhat similar to some of the scenarios presented in this paper.Alternatively,they could run their own simulations and calculate the loss function.Originality/value:This is a systematic comparison of model choice algorithms and heuristics in context of logistic regression.The distinction between two types of sensitivity and a comparison based on a loss function are methodological novelties.

Editor-in-Chief articles of choice and comments from January to June 2024

As the Editor-in-Chief of the World Journal of Gastroenterology,I carefully review all articles every week before a new issue’s online publication,including the title,clinical and research importance,originality,novelty,and ratings by the peer reviewers.Based on this review,I select the papers of choice and suggest pertinent changes(e.g.,in the title or text)to the company editors responsible for publication.This process,while time-consuming,is essential for assuring the quality of publications and highlighting important articles that readers may revisit.

Editor-in-Chief articles of choice and comments at the year-end of 2023

As the Editor-in-Chief of World Journal of Gastroenterology,every week prior to a new issue’s online publication,I perform a careful review of all encompassed articles,including the title,clinical and/or research importance,originality,novelty,and ratings by the peer reviewers.Based on this review,I select the papers of choice and suggest pertinent changes(e.g.,in the title)to the Company Editors responsible for publication.This process,while time-consuming,is very important for assuring the quality of publications and highlighting important articles that Readers may revisit.

Discrete Choice Analysis of Temporal Factors on Social Network Growth

Social networks like Facebook, X (Twitter), and LinkedIn provide an interaction and communication environment for users to generate and share content, allowing for the observation of social behaviours in the digital world. These networks can be viewed as a collection of nodes and edges, where users and their interactions are represented as nodes and the connections between them as edges. Understanding the factors that contribute to the formation of these edges is important for studying network structure and processes. This knowledge can be applied to various areas such as identifying communities, recommending friends, and targeting online advertisements. Several factors, including node popularity and friends-of-friends relationships, influence edge formation and network growth. This research focuses on the temporal activity of nodes and its impact on edge formation. Specifically, the study examines how the minimum age of friends-of-friends edges and the average age of all edges connected to potential target nodes influence the formation of network edges. Discrete choice analysis is used to analyse the combined effect of these temporal factors and other well-known attributes like node degree (i.e., the number of connections a node has) and network distance between nodes. The findings reveal that temporal properties have a similar impact as network proximity in predicting the creation of links. By incorporating temporal features into the models, the accuracy of link prediction can be further improved.

Factors Influence Hanoians’ Choice of Non-Motorized Transport Mode to Access Bus Stations

Hanoi’s rapid urbanization has led to a surge in private vehicle ownership, particularly motorcycles, amidst inadequate public transportation infrastructure. Despite government efforts, many still prefer motorized transport, citing mobility and safety concerns, exacerbated by insufficient pedestrian infrastructure. This study examines the motivations behind this reliance on motorized vehicles, particularly motorcycles, in Hanoi. Findings reveal safety and convenience as primary factors driving motorized transport use, especially for accessing bus stations. Economic incentives could promote non-motorized travel and public transport adoption. Policy implications highlight the importance of addressing economic factors and improving access infrastructure to manage motorized vehicle reliance and foster sustainable urban mobility in Hanoi.

A Study of the Self-efficacy of Viola Majors in Chinese Universities Regarding Career Choice

This study examined and analysed the impact of self-efficacy on the career decisions of 52 viola students enrolled in Chinese universities.According to the findings,the level of self-efficacy influences the learning and career decisions of students directly.Higher self-efficacy can positively affect how individuals perceive their past experiences and those of others.Therefore,a high degree of self-efficacy can be advantageous.Self-efficacy is primarily influenced by a person’s prior experiences,alternative experiences,verbal persuasion,and physical and emotional state during work-based learning.Schools may offer courses that foster and improve the development of self-efficacy in order to help viola majors in improving their self-efficacy effectively.

Consumers’experiences and preferences for plant-based meat food:Evidence from a choice experiment in four cities of China

This paper examined consumers’experiences in and preferences for plant-based meat(PBM)food and their respective correlates,based on data from an online survey of 579 consumers in four major cities in China in early 2021.We first described consumers’experiences in consuming and purchasing PBM food and their correlates,and then analyzed consumer preferences using hypothetical choice experiment.The experiment offered consumers various options to purchase burgers made from PBM or animal-based meat(ABM),combined with different countries of origin(COO),taste labels,and prices.Our data showed that respondents hold overall positive attitudes toward PBM food;85 and 82%of respondents reported experience in eating and purchasing PBM food,respectively.More than half of them ate PBM food because they wanted to try new food(58%),or were interested in healthy food(56%).Income,religion,and dietary restrictions were significantly correlated with consumers’experiences in PBM food consumption.Results from the Random Parameter Logit Model based on the hypothetical choice experiment data showed that 79%of respondents chose PBM burgers and were willing to pay an average of 88 CNY for a PBM burger.We also found that 99.8 and 83%of respondents are willing to buy burgers made in China and those with a taste label,with a willingness to pay(WTP)of 208 and 120 CNY,respectively.The heterogeneity test revealed that females and those with at least a bachelor’s degree,higher income,religious beliefs,and dietary restrictions are more likely to buy PBM burgers than their counterparts.

Accessibility Measures in Modal Choice Models: A Proof of Concept Applied to Freight Transport

Modal choice models applied to interregional or international freight transportation network models are often based on rather coarse origin-destination matrices, containing annual transported tonnages between (sub)regions, for instance. Generally, only basic (sometimes constructed) independent variables (transportation costs or transit times) are used because other variables such as shipment sizes, service frequencies, etc. are not available. Using origin-destination matrices and an assignment model, it is also possible to compute spatial accessibility measures that can further be used as additional explanatory variables. Indeed, several published studies have identified network accessibility as an important element in the mode-choice decision. This paper also shows that the inclusion of an accessibility measure in the utility functions of a logit model substantially improves the performance of a transportation network model, both in the modal choice and the assignment levels of the classical four-step model. Consequently, the assignment of the estimated modal demands results in more accurate estimated traffic on the networks. The model presented in this paper is to be considered as a proof of concept because its workflow should further be streamlined to make it easily useable by modelers.

Investigating impacts of different building contents on the post-earthquake evacuation time using an agent-based model with considering turning behavior

Accurate assessment of crowd evacuation inside the post-earthquake environment is critical from many perspectives,but this issue receives much less attention compared to the seismic losses of structural and non-structural components.This could be attributed to the fact that post-earthquake evacuation analysis is complex due to the interaction between human behavior and the actual built environment induced by different building contents.This study attempts to tackle this problem by investigating the impacts of different building contents on post-earthquake evacuation time by using an agent-based model that considers turning behavior.To this end,the agent-based model is first described,including:properties of the agent-based model with turning behavior,key aspects in its formulation considering different evacuation stages,and influence of different building contents(namely,debris from partition walls and ceiling systems,and various types of equipment)on the agent’s behavior.Subsequently,a school building is used as a benchmark problem to validate the model without earthquake,and the findings indicate that the agent-based model can match the real safety drill results reasonably well.After the validation,the school building is subsequently designed in accordance with modern seismic design codes,and the influence of debris and equipment on post-earthquake evacuation time is quantitatively studied using a suite of pulse-type ground motions as input.Based on this case study,recommendations are made for structural and architectural designers in an effort to reduce the potential evacuation time.Specifically,debris induced by partition walls or ceiling systems should be controlled as it has the greatest impact on the total evacuation time.

Type 2 Diabetes—Hard to Select a Healthy Choice

Introduction: The use of foods containing high levels of sugar is increasing all the time. This is a risk factor for increased incidence of type 2 diabetes. There are few studies that have investigated the availability of low-sugar müsli products in grocery stores. Purpose: The study aims to identify which types of müsli contain high respectively low levels of sugar, and which brands are involved. Methods: The material consists of both qualitative interviews and observations from five grocery stores: City Gross, Hemköp, Ica Maxi, Stora Coop and Willy’s in Helsingborg, Sweden. The qualitative interviews had a semi-structured character and were recorded. The interviews took approx. 20 minutes and a textual analysis was conducted of the results. Data from observation was analyzed based on brand, nutritional composition and flavors, and also, where low sugar products were placed on store shelves. Results: The grocery stores provided together brands from AXA, Coop, Finax, Frebaco, Garant, ICA, Risenta, Saltå Kvarn och Urtekram, in total 24 müsli products. Of these products, 19 were high in sugar. The observation reveals that müsli products with high sugar content (17 - 29 g per 100 g müsli) are more prominently displayed than those with low sugar content. From the interviews with the store managers, it became clear that it would be valuable to highlight healthy müsli products on the shelves. However, central bureaucracy puts obstacles to such measures. Discussion: The study emphasizes the need for increased visibility of low-sugar products and proposes solutions such as negotiating with responsible person at the head office in Stockholm. Several reviews have shown that if the grocery store raises the prices of unhealthy food, the consumer is willing to purchase healthier müsli and other products. Conclusion: This study shows the need for grocery stores to upgrade healthy müsli products along with advertising to be able to influence customer’s shopping habits. Also, further research is needed how type 2 diabetes is affected by high intakes of food products with high sugar content.

Influence of land use characteristics and trip attributes on commuting mode choice: a case of Nanjing

The effects of socio-demographics, land use characteristics and trip attributes on the commute mode choice are studied with a nested logit （NL） model. Based on the random utility maximum theory, the NL model is formulated. The analysis is carried out in the main area of Nanjing. Direct and cross elasticities are calculated to analyze the effects of travel time and travel cost on the selection of travel mode choice. The results reveal that the non-motorized travel modes are more attractive in the areas with higher housing and employment accessibility and car owners are found to be more likely to commute to work by car. The bus and subway choice probabilities are more sensitive to changes in travel times than to changes in travel costs. In conclusion, a comprehensive public transit system and effective integration of land use and transportation policies help to relieve the traffic congestion levels caused by the increasing urban sprawl.

Investigation on transformation process of trip mode choice for planned special events

This paper aims to provide a decision-making method for the transportation management strategies in guiding the transformation of trip mode choice during planned special events. The Expo 2010 Shanghai is taken as an example, and a structural equation model is employed to analyze the dynamic mechanism of trip mode choice behavior and the effectiveness of the transportation management measures at different stages. Based on the difference between the objective-oriented stated preference （SP） survey results and the objectives, together with the feedback from the previous stage survey, some adjustments on the transportation management measures are made in the next stage of the planning process until the objectives are eventually achieved. The results indicate that the adjustments on transportation management measures at different stages can effectively raise the transit share to 88.6%. Nonlocal visitors are inclined to choose nonstop modes of transportation and the companion attributes have the most significant effects on the trip mode choices of visitors. The research method is proved to be an effective way to support the decision making process of transportation management measures during planned special events in the future.

Application of discrete choice model in trip mode structure forecast:a case study of Bengbu

In order to find the main factors that influence the urban traffic structure,a relational model between the travelers＇ characteristics and the trip mode choice is built.The data of urban residents＇ characteristics are obtained from statistical data,while the trip mode split data is collected through a trip survey in Bengbu.In addition,the discrete choice model is adopted to build the functional relationship between the mode choice and the travelers＇ personal characteristics,as well as family characteristics and trip characteristics.The model shows that the relationship between the mode split and the personal,as well as family and trip characteristics is stable and changes little as the time changes.Deduced by the discrete model,the mode split result is relatively accurate and can be feasibly used for trip mode structure forecasts.Furthermore,the proposed model can also contribute to find the key influencing factors on trip mode choice,and restructure or optimize the urban trip mode structure.

Routes Choice of Urban Agriculture,Ecotourism and Cultural Innovation Industry Fusion

The fusion of urban agriculture, ecotourism and cultural innovation industry has been a necessary way for industry updating, value increase and income im- provement of farmers in suburbs. The methods available of the fusion are as fol- lows： corporation development and operation, led by government with an integrated plan; corporation management and development under guidance of market with sup- port from government; collective development under guidance of market and policies; individual development and operation with the model of ＂villagers participation de- pending on infrastructure provided by government＂. The four routes enjoy exclusive advantages and characters. Hence, different villages and towns should adopt the most suitable one according to local conditions for further development and management.

Diversification of Autonomous Reading Materials for English Major

Autonomous learning and its importance has attracted more and more attention,on the basis of which,independent read-ing activities should emphasizes the student as the center in the activity.So the choice of independent reading materials should bebased on their requirement.The materials should have the features of interesting and informative,varied style,content suitable forteaching materials,etc.At last how English teacher guide and conduct the students’activities of self-monitoring and self-assess-ment.

瑞波西利联合内分泌治疗用于绝经前侵袭性HR+/HER2-晚期乳腺癌患者:随机Ⅱ期RIGHT Choice试验

1文献来源Lu Y-S, Mahidin EIBM, Azim H, et al.Abstract GS1-10:Primary results from the randomized phaseⅡRIGHT Choice trial of premenopausal patients with aggressive HR+/HER2-advanced breast cancer treated with ribociclib+endocrine therapy vs physician’s choice combination chemotherapy[J].Cancer Res,2023,83(5S):GS1-10.

Logit-based exit choice model of evacuation in rooms with internal obstacles and multiple exits

A logit-based discrete choice model is proposed to study the exit choice behaviour of evacuees in rooms with internal obstacles and multiple exits. Several factors influencing the exit choice behaviour, including the information obtained by evacuees, the tendency of following others, the visibility and familiarity of exits and the physical conditions of nearby exits, are considered. Evacuees are allowed to re-select their target exits for minimizing the perceived disutility during evacuation process. Numerical results from applying the model to cellular automata simulation of evacuation are presented and the effects of some model parameters on evacuation time are investigated.

Joint analysis of urban shopping destination and travel mode choice accounting for potential spatial correlation between alternatives

In recent years,there have been important developments in the joint analysis of the travel behavior based on discrete choice models as well as in the formulation of increasingly flexible closed-form models belonging to the generalized extreme value class.The objective of this work is to describe the simultaneous choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area by making use of the cross-nested logit(CNL) structure that allows for potential spatial correlation.The analysis uses data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington,D.C.region for shopping trips,considering household,individual,land use,and travel-related characteristics.The estimation results show that the dissimilarity parameter in the CNL model is 0.37 and significant at the 95% level,indicating that the alternatives have high spatial correlation for the short shopping distance.The results of analysis reveal detailed significant influences on travel behavior of joint choice shopping destination and travel mode.Moreover,a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios arising from transportation policies and parking fees in downtown area,was undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the shopping destination and travel mode switching.These findings have important implications for transportation demand management and urban planning.

Game theory model of exit selection in pedestrian evacuation considering visual range and choice firmness

Exit choice is one of the most important pedestrian behaviors during evacuation.Distance to the exit is a generally recognized factor influencing expected moving time to the exit.Visual range determines how much information a pedestrian can perceive,thus the number of pedestrians within the visual field can be used to estimate waiting time at the exit.Besides,the choice firmness that reflects the degree to which a pedestrian would persist in his/her previous choice of exit is proposed.By integrating game theory into a cellular automata simulation framework,the pedestrian exit choice mechanism is investigated and explicitly modeled in this paper.A systematic analysis of the key factors influencing pedestrian evacuation is conducted,including visual radius and choice firmness of a pedestrian,initial crowd distribution of the room,exit layout as well as exit width.It is found that low choice firmness level can lead to unnatural pedestrian behavior such as wandering,which is adverse to evacuation.The longer the pedestrian's visual radius,the earlier the pedestrian can determine his/her final selection of the exit.Compared with the scenario where the pedestrians are randomly distributed,pedestrians clustered together in a corner of the room lead to high crowd density and imbalanced use of exits.Furthermore,the exit layout and exit width also have a certain influence on pedestrian evacuation process.The results of this paper may be of benefit to the formulation of behavioral rules in other pedestrian simulation models.

Choice of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Variability among Smallholder Farmers in the Maize Based Cropping System in Namutumba District, Uganda

Smallholder farmers in Namutumba district draw on a combination of adaptation strategies to respond to effects of climate variability. However, there is limited scholarly evidence and explanation that has been conducted on the factors that influence the choice of alternative sets of strategies that smallholder farmers use in response to climate variability specific stress and literature that disentangles climatic stressors specific adaptation options. A multi-stage sampling procedure was employed to select the study area and household respondents. The study used cross-sectional research design to collect both quantitative and qualitative data. Household data was collected from 160 respondents with a structured questionnaire supported by key informant interviews. Multinomial logit modeling (MNL) was used to determine the relative influence of selected household socio-demographic factors on the choice of adaptation strategies against the dry spell. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was used to create weighted adaptation index for categorizing various similar adaptation strategies. In order to respond to the impact of climate variability stresses, smallholder farmers have adapted growing drought-resistant crops (12.2%), extension of the agricultural frontier into wetlands during the dry spells (37%), whereas use of crop rotation (9.8%) is the most dominant strategies used to manage pest and diseases, similarly soil and water conservation (15.3%) and climate-smart planning basin (11%) are the most dominant adaptation strategies use to manage flood. Empirical results from multinomial logit modeling showed that predictor variables gender, level of education, years of farming, house size, access to credit, and own radio have a significant influence on the choice of adaptation strategies with differences significant level during the dry spell. The study recommends that future policies should focus on strengthening the existing extension training package, strengthening the existing farmer’s groups and cooperatives, encouraging informal social networks in order to boost smallholder farmers’ adaptation to climate variability.