Climate Changes and Sustainability

Climate change is the phrase used to describe long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns. Changes in the atmosphere and their interactions with diverse geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic variables are the main contributors to this cyclical adjustment of the Earth’s climate. Such changes may be induced purposefully, because of burning fossil fuels, clearing forests, and raising animals, or they may be natural, brought on by significant volcanic eruptions or variations in the sun’s activity. By significantly increasing the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, this heightens the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. This work includes several additional theoretical and practical explanations of sustainable development. The theoretical work encompasses hundreds of researches that identify requirements for how development routes might satisfy sustainable development (SD) criteria using economic theory, complex systems approach, ecological science, and other techniques. The agreements made by the Parties in various nations across the world will consider a wide range of perspectives about what would be considered undesirable effects on the environment, the climate system, sustainability, economic growth, or food production.

Influence of Volcanic Activity on Weather and Climate Changes

This paper examines possible connections between volcanic eruptions and their consequences on the weather. Gas emissions, such as CO2 and SO2, are vital in the troposphere and change temperatures on Earth’s surface. The water vapor discharges can be moved for three atmospheric layers creating extra atmospheric rivers and disrupting the Polar vortex. All those deviations will bring consequences to the weather. It depends on the intensity, the emission type, the kind of volcano, and the location. Then, eruptions can change the atmospheric layers with sudden fluctuations unexpected for the season.

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Climate Changes in the Urumqi River Basin of Tianshan Mountain over 50 years

Based on the meteorological data during 1959-2008 from five representative weather stations in the Urumqi River Basin and surrounding areas,the regional characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the basin featuring multi-climatic zones were studied by means of some methods including wavelet analysis.As was shown in the results,the temperature in the whole Urumqi River Basin demonstrated a significant upward trend.The temperature increase particularly in autumn and winter made the greatest contribution to the marked ascent.The interdecadal temperature in the basin showed a tendency to decline before the period during 1970s-1980s while it was on the rise after 1990s on the whole.The most concentrated period of temperature mutations was in the late 1990s.At the same time,the precipitation also showed an escalating trend,which experienced a stage of unanimous upward trend after 1990s.The most concentrated period of precipitation mutations was in the early 1990s.

Seasonal Dynamics of Terrestrial Net Primary Production in Response to Climate Changes in China

Study on seasonal responses of terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate changes is to help understand feedback between climate systems and terrestrial ecosystems and mechanisms of increased NPP in the northern middle and high latitudes. In this study, time series dataset of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and corresponding ground-based information on vegetation, climate, soil, and solar radiation, together with an ecological process model, were used to explore the seasonal trends of terrestrial NPP and their geographical differences in China from 1982 to 1999. As the results,. seasonal total NPP in China showed a significant increase for all four seasons (spring, summer, autumn and winter) during the past 18 years. The spring NPP indicated the largest increase rate, while the summer NPP was with the largest increase in magnitude. The response of NPP to climate changes varied with different vegetation types. The increased NPP was primarily led by an advanced growing season for broadleaf evergreen forest, needle-leaf evergreen forest, and needle-leaf deciduous forest, whilst that was mainly due to enhanced vegetation activity (amplitude of growth cycle) during growing season for broadleaf deciduous forest, broadleaf and needle-leaf mixed forest, broadleaf trees with groundcover, perennial grasslands, broadleaf shrubs with grasslands, tundra, desert, and cultivation. The regions with the largest increase in spring NPP appeared mainly in eastern China, while the areas with the largest increase in summer NPP occurred in most parts of Northwestern China, Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, Mts. Xiaoxinganling-Changbaishan, Sanjiang Plain, Songliao Plain, Sichuan Basin, Leizhou Peninsula, part of the middle and lower Yangtze River, and southeastern mountainous areas of China. In autumn, the largest NPP increase appeared in Yunnan Plateau-Eastern Xizang and the areas around Hulun Lake. Such different ways of the NPP responses depended on regional climate attributes and their changes.

Effects of Climate Changes on Maize Yield in Northeast China

Based on the meteorological data and production data of maize of 10 stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2006,the primary climatic factors influencing maize yield in different region were studies by the method of Baier yields models.The result showed that the yield of maize in Heilongjiang and Jilin Province were mainly affected by temperatures,with air temperature increased,the meteorological yield of maize increased.The meteorological yield of maize in Liaoning Province was mainly affected by precipitation and sunshine duration,and different regions had different effects.

Millennial-centennial Scales Climate Changes of Holocene Indicated by Magnetic Susceptibility of High-resolution Section in Salawusu River Valley, China

The upmost segment （Holocene series） of the Milanggouwan stratigraphic section （MGS 1） in the Salawusu River valley shows 11 sedimentary cycles of dune sands and fluvio-lacustrine facies, or dune sands and paleosols. The analysis of the magnetic susceptibility of this segment suggests that there are 11 magnetic susceptibility cycles with the value alternating from low to high, in which the layers of the dune sands correspond to the lower value of the magnetic susceptibility and the layers of fluvio-lacustrine facies and paleosols correspond to the higher peaks. The study reveals that the low and high magnetic susceptibility values indicate the climate dominated by cold-arid winter monsoon and warm-humid summer monsoon of East Asia, respectively, and the study area has experienced at least 22 times of milleunial-centennial scales climate alternation from the cold-arid to the warm-humid during the Holocene. In terms of the time and the climate nature, the variations basically correspond to those of the North Atlantic and some records of cold-warm changes in China as well. They might be caused by the alternation of winter and summer monsoons in the Mu Us Desert induced by global climate fluctuations in the Holocene.

Climate Changes in Northeastern China During Last Four Decades

The northeastern China is a sensitive region of climate change, whose detailed trend of climate changes is highly interesting. In this study, this kind of variation trend was analyzed. Potential evapotranspiration (PE) and moisture index (MI) were modeled by using Thornthwaite scheme based on the observation data of 1961-2004 from 94 meteorological stations. To describe the climate fluctuation in the northeastern China in 1961-2004, the linear regression method was used to analyze the variation trends of mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, PE and MI. Mann-Kendall method was used to test the significant difference. The results show a general increasing tendency in mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, PE and MI. However increasing tendency was more significant in mean annual temperature and PE than in mean annual precipitation and MI. Analysis of seasonal climate variation indicates that there showed positive trends in winter and in spring, while the positive trend was more significant in winter than in spring. Furthermore, the relations between climate changes and geographical factors were analyzed, the results show that both climate factors and their interannual variability were correlated to latitude, longitude and altitude, suggesting that latitude is the most climate factor affecting climate changes, followed by altitude and longitude.

Paleoclimate Changes during the Early Oligocene in the Hoh Xil Region, Northern Tibetan Plateau

Sedimentological, cyclic-stratigraphic, paleomagnetic, and clay-mineralogical studies on the early Oligocene Yaxicuo Group in the Hoh Xil Basin, the largest Cenozoic sedimentary basin in the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, provide abundant information of paleoclimate changes. A 350-m thick section in the middle-lower Yaxicuo Group was analyzed to reveal the climatic history that occurred in the Hoh Xil region during the early Oligocene interval 31.30-30.35 Ma, dated with the paleomagnetic chronostratigraphy. The results indicate that arid and cold climate dominated the Hoh Xil region during the early Oligocene in general, being related to the global cooling and drying events that occurred in the earliest Oligocene. Within this period, relatively warm and wet climate accompanied by strong tectonic activity occurred in the 31.05-30.75 Ma interval; while arid and cold climate and relatively inactive tectonics occurred in the 31.30-31.05 and 30.75-30.35 Ma intervals. Furthermore, spectral analyses of high-temporal resolution paleoclimatic records show orbital periods including eccentricity, obliquity, and precession. It is concluded that paleoclimate changes during the early Oligocene in the Hoh Xil region were forced by both tectonic activity and orbital periods.

Quantitative Estimation on Contributions of Climate Changes and Human Activities to Decreasing Runoff in Weihe River Basin, China

Human activities and climate changes are deemed to be two primary driving factors influencing the changes of hydrological processes, and quantitatively separating their influences on runoff changes will be of great significance to regional water resources planning and management. In this study, the impact of climate changes and human activities was initially qualitatively distinguished through a coupled water and energy budgets analysis, and then this effect was further separated by means of a quantitative estimation based on hydrological sensitivity analysis. The results show that: 1) precipitation, wind speed, potential evapotranspiration and runoff have a significantly decreasing trend, while temperature has a remarkably increasing tendency in the Weihe River Basin, China; 2) the major driving factor on runoff decrease in the 1970 s and 1990 s in the basin is climate changes compared with that in the baseline 1960 s, while that in the 1980 s and 2000 s is human activities. Compared with the results based on Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) model, the contributions calculated in this study have certain reliability. The results are of great significance to local water resources planning and management.

Analysis of the Characteristics of Climate Changes in Jining City in Recent 40 Years

The temperature,precipitation and sunshine data of Jining City(including 11 counties and cities) from 1970 to 2009 were analyzed in this paper by regression analysis method.Results showed that in the each year and the four seasons in Jining over the past 40 years,average temperature,average minimum and maximum temperatures were increasing.Especially,the winter temperature had the largest rising range,and average minimum temperatures were rising faster than maximum average temperatures.The changes in rainfall could be divided into two obvious stages,the lowing trend in the early 30 years but rising trend in the last 10 years.The precipitation fell in Jining;sunshine was decreasing and reduced a lot in summer.

The PMIP3 Simulated Climate Changes over Arid Central Asia during the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum

In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.

Spatiotemporal changes in water,land use,and ecosystem services in Central Asia considering climate changes and human activities

Central Asia is located in the hinterland of Eurasia,comprising Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,and Tajikistan;over 93.00%of the total area is dryland.Temperature rise and human activities have severe impacts on the fragile ecosystems.Since the 1970s,nearly half the great lakes in Central Asia have shrunk and rivers are drying rapidly owing to climate changes and human activities.Water shortage and ecological crisis have attracted extensive international attention.In general,ecosystem services in Central Asia are declining,particularly with respect to biodiversity,water,and soil conservation.Furthermore,the annual average temperature and annual precipitation in Central Asia increased by 0.30℃/decade and 6.9 mm/decade in recent decades,respectively.Temperature rise significantly affected glacier retreat in the Tianshan Mountains and Pamir Mountains,which may intensify water shortage in the 21st century.The increase in precipitation cannot counterbalance the aggravation of water shortage caused by the temperature rise and human activities in Central Asia.The population of Central Asia is growing gradually,and its economy is increasing steadily.Moreover,the agricultural land has not been expended in the last two decades.Thus,water and ecological crises,such as the Aral Sea shrinkage in the 21st century,cannot be attributed to agriculture extension any longer.Unbalanced regional development and water interception/transfer have led to the irrational exploitation of water resources in some watersheds,inducing downstream water shortage and ecological degradation.In addition,accelerated industrialization and urbanization have intensified this process.Therefore,all Central Asian countries must urgently reach a consensus and adopt common measures for water and ecological protection.

Analysis on the Characteristics of Climate Changes in the Surrounding Area of Qinghai Lake

[Objective] The aim was to study the characteristics of climate changes in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake.[Method] Based on the data of temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours from 5 representative meteorological stations in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake during 1961-2007,the annual,seasonal and decadal variation of meteorological factors were analyzed.[Result] In recent 47 years,temperature showed obvious increase trend in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake,and annual average temperature increased with the climatic tendency of ≥0.30 ℃/10 a,while annual average minimum temperature increased more significant than annual average temperature and annual average maximum temperature;annual mean precipitation decreased with the climatic tendency of-3.67 mm/10 a,and precipitation in spring and autumn reduced obviously,while precipitation in summer and winter increased slightly;annual sunshine hours also showed decrease trend with the climatic tendency of-1.79 h/10 a,while sunshine hours decreased most obviously in summer,and next came winter,while there was no obvious decrease in spring and autumn.[Conclusion] The study could provide theoretical references for the effective prevention of meteorological disasters in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake.

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES AND THE TOURISM OF CHINA

The future global climate changes induced by the increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is receiving much attention from the scientific community as well as the public. Model simulations and palaeoclimatic data studies show an evident change in temperature and precipitation over China will occur under conditions of the global warming. Possible scenarios of the future climates are given here for China on the basis of synthesizing model simulations and palaeoclimatic data. Most parts of China will experience an increase in temperature, but the warming may be more remarkable in winter in h1e northern half of the country. Increase in precipitation will be seen in nearly every parts of the eastern China, and it will be larger in North and Northeast China. Impacts of the climate changes on the national tourism are assessed. Regions suitable for tourisin development in terms of climate comfortable index will shift northward. Some scenic spots and toruism facilities will be damaged due to sea level rise and increased rainfall. Some regions will benefit from the dimate change, but the tourism industry as a whole will be negatively affected.

Study of Holocene glacier degradation in central Asia by isotopic methods for long-term forecast of climate changes

This article presents a summary of our studies of Holocene moraines and glaciers of the Tien-Shan, Pamir, and Himalaya moun- mills with the purpose of providing pattern regularity of the Holocene glaciation decomposition. We developed a method for ob- taining reliable radiocarbon dating of moraines with the use of autochthonous organic matter dispersed in fine-grained morainic material, as well there were shown new possibilities of isotope-oxygen and isotope-uranium analysis for the Holocene glaciations dynamics. We found that Holocene glaciations disintegrate stadiaUy according to the decaying principle, and seven main stages may be distinguished. We achieved the absolute dating of the first three stages, identifying these periods as 8,000, 5,000, and 3,400 years ago. The application of the above-mentioned isotope methods of the Holocene glaciations and moraines study will allow re- searchers to improve the offered model of the Holocene glaciations disintegration; it will be great contribution to salvation of the problem of long-term climatic and glaciations forecast.

Surface Water Resources' Response to Climate Changes in Jilin Province

[Objective] The response of surface water resources on climate changes was studied.[Method] By dint of monthly average temperature and precipitation in 45 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1960 to 2000,monthly runoff in 56 hydrological stations in Songhuajiang and Liaohe region,the surface runoff change and the response of surface water resources to climate change in 41 years were expounded.[Result] The runoff of Songliao region was limited during 1960s and 1970s.It began to increase slowly in the early 1980s.Since 1990s,there were distinct fluctuation of annual runoff and it was decreasing in general.EOF analysis suggested that the runoff of Songliao region was decreasing gradually from south to the north.The central gradient was small and runoff was evenly distributed.MK test result showed that the annual runoff in Songliao region had large fluctuation before 1980s and after 1990s.The response of surface runoff on climate and precipitation changes in Jilin Province was distinct and had strong relevance as well as certain lagging.Based on the analysis of the relation of rivers runoff and meteorological elements changes,statistics forecast model between river surface runoff and meteorological elements was constructed.Runoff prediction value and measured value had good relation.The corresponding river surface runoff changes can be assessed based on the changes of meteorological elements.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the development and utilization of surface water resources in Jilin.

Historical climate changes in southern Xinjiang

Based on the synthetic researches of multi-index geologic records of Niya section, which are of high resolution in southern margin of the Tarim Basin, together with other geologic records in southern Xinjiang, this paper has reconstructed the history of paleoclimatic changes in this region since about 4.00 ka BP. During the last 4.00 ka, the region of southern Xinjiang has experienced alternations of relative cold-wet and relative warm-dry periods. Three remarkable cold-wet periods (4.00-3.45 ka BP., 2.50-1.90 ka BP., ca.1.40-1.00 ka BP.) and three warm-dry periods (3.45-2.50 ka BP., 1.90-1.40 ka BP., 1.00 ka BP.-present) are identified. It is shown that human activities have an intimate relation with the evolution of paleoclimate in southern Xinjiang.

Seasonal Temperature Variations of Lake Vrana on the Island of Cres and Possible Influence of Global Climate Changes

Lake Vrana on the island of Cres is one of the largest fresh water features on Mediterranean islands. The maximum depth of the lake is 72 m and it stores 220 million m3 of fresh water. The paper provides an overview of lake and groundwater temperature measurements to date and recent activities within the EU project ＂CC-WaterS （Climate Change and Impacts on Water Supply）＂. Groundwater temperatures in the lake surrounding are almost constant throughout the year, in the range from 14.6 ℃ to 13.1 ℃, while thermodynamic cycle of the lake conforms to the characteristics of a monomictic, medium depth lake in the moderate climate belt. Present and future climate simulations using three limited area models were analyzed （Aladin, Promes and RegCM3）, they pointed out further air temperature increase in range of 0.27 ℃/10 yrs to 0.32 ℃/10 yrs. The significant changes of precipitation rates were not indicated. Considering increasing water consumption from the lake, already asserted negative trends, indicated climate changes and possible effects on the lake recharge, it is necessary to establish continual monitoring of parameters that describe lake system behaviour and periodically analyze lake conditions, especially with respect to the extraction for the public water supply.

About A New Complex Method of Climates Reconstruction and Forecasting of Climate Changes in the Future

This paper deals with a new integrated method of reconstruction and forecasting of climatic changes in future. The method is based on proxy data pollen-spore analysis method, 14C analysis method, nowadays meteorological data, and data about of solar activity expressed in numbers of W （Wolf）. Here we present the results of investigation of sediments of the 2nd Fomich River terrace, Taymyr Peninsula, Russia. The formation of the peat bog started 10500 ± 140 years BP and continued during the entire Holocene. The pollen analysis of the sediment samples of the 2nd Fomich River terrace and the analysis of surface samples from a larch forest, typical of this region, reveals two phytochrones： both climatically preconditioned--tundra phytochrone （I1-4） and forest phytochrone （Ⅱ1-4）. The techniques of reconstruction and forecasting of basic elements of climate are presented and discussed in details.

Workshop on Polar Climate Changes and Extreme Events

Polar climate systems have experienced a number of dramatic changes （Wang et al., 2017; Turner et al., 2016; Gordon, 2014; Rignot et al., 2013; Meier et al., 2012; Kwok and Rothrock, 2009; Thompson and Solomon, 2002）, which have influenced climatic conditions across large parts of the globe through large-scale atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections （Dou and Wu, 2018; Zhang et al., 2018;