Changing Characteristics of Comfort Index of Human Body in Bengbu City in the Past 40 Years under the Background of Climate Change

Based on the daily meteorological data of Bengbu City during 1981-2020,the changing characteristics of three elements needed for the calculation of the comfort index of human body(CIHB)were discussed,and daily CIHB was classified and discussed.The results show that from 1981 to 2020,annual average temperature tended to increase significantly.Annual average wind speed and relative humidity showed a decreasing trend before 2011 but an increasing trend after 2011.The duration of the four seasons in Bengbu City mainly rose in spring,reduced in winter,declined first and then increased in summer,and rose first and then decreased in autumn.As CIHB was at grades 1 and 9(the most uncomfortable),the three factors had different effects on them.For cold weather,the influence of relative humidity and wind speed on CIHB can not be ignored besides temperature.In hot weather,the influence of temperature was dominant,and the change of annual average temperature could well correspond to the change in the number of very hot days.In the context of climate warming,the number of cold days tended to decline generally,but it was larger in the years with fewer very cold days.Under the background of climate warming,there was no obvious change in the number of days of the overall comfort of human body.The number of hot days was closely related to the duration of summer,and the number of days of grade 8 rose significantly in the years with an increase in the duration of summer.

How Himalayan communities are changing cultivation practices in the context of climate change

Climate change can have significant impacts on crop yields and food security.This study assessed the linkages between climate change and crop yields to obtain a better understanding on the drivers of food security.The study was conducted in Pasagaun village of Lamjung District in Nepal,where household surveys and focus group discussions(FGDs)were used to collect data including crop cultivation,irrigation facilities,and adaptation strategies.Moreover,climate data(temperature and precipitation)from 1992 to 2020 were collected from the Khudi Bazar meteorological station and crop yield data were obtained from the Agri-Business Promotion and Statistics Division.Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation was conducted using MannKendall trend test and Sen’s slope method,and the results showed an increase in the average temperature of approximately 0.02℃/a and a decrease in the annual precipitation of 9.84 mm/a.The cultivation of traditional varieties of rice and foxtail millet(Kaguno)has vanished.Although,there was no significant impact of the maximum temperature on the yield of rice and maize,the regression analysis revealed that there are negative relationships between rice yield and annual minimum temperature(r=-0.44),between millet yield and annual precipitation(r=-0.30),and between maize yield and annual minimum temperature(r=-0.31),as well as positive relationship between rice yield and annual precipitation(r=0.16).Moreover,average rice yield and millet yield have decreased by 27.0% and 57.0% in 2000-2020,respectively.Despite other reasons for the decrease in crop yield such as the lack of irrigation facilities,out-migration of farmer,and increased pest infestation,respondents have adopted adaptation strategies(for example,shifts in cultivation time and changes in crop types)to minimize the impacts of climate change.More investigation and community-based farming education are needed to understand and alleviate the harmful impacts of climate change on crop yield,as effective adaptation coping strategies are still insufficient.This study provides insights into the adaptation strategies that are necessary to keep food security in the face of climate change.

The Risk of Flooding to Architecture and Infrastructure amidst a Changing Climate in Lake Baringo, Kenya

Climate change has grown more apparent in recent years with people becoming more aware of its potentially disastrous consequences. Flooding is one of the many consequences of a changing climate in Kenya known to cause immense devastation resulting in the loss of lives and property. This paper discusses the risk of flooding in Kenya as one of the many outcomes of climate change in the face of urgency to adapt Kenya’s built environment to flooding which is likely to continue to prevail in the decades as a result of the looming climate change. It also sought to evaluate the physical, traumatic, and psychological effects on communities affected by flood events. This cross-sectional survey, both qualitative and quantitative in nature, executed between 13th January 2021 and 14th July 2021 with 132 respondents along the western shoreline of Lake Baringo, near Marigat Town focused on the flood levels, structures, their materials, and quantities. Results show that the area covered by Lake Baringo increased by 18% from 236 km2 to 278 km2. The depth of floods ranged from 0.3 m to 1.2 m and exceeded 1.6 m during heavy rainfall up to 3.2 m with homes completely submerged by the lake. Flooding was experienced more by residents living in low areas nearer to the shoreline of the lake as compared to those living on higher grounds. 100% of the structures didn’t have the architectural technology to withstand the impacts of flooding with 59% of housing made of corrugated iron sheets both on wall and roofing, 22% of mud houses roofed with either corrugated iron sheets, 10% being timber with thatch and only 8% stoned walled houses. This predisposed all the residents to the harmful impacts of flooding. Piled sandbags by locals as a mitigating measure proved inadequate to withstand the forces of the rising waters. Flood walls were built around local lodges near the lake but the rising water level quickly breached these defences. The study recommends that county and national governing authorities develop flood adaptation strategies for resilience. These include long-term land-use planning, the establishment of early warning systems, evacuation plans, identification of vulnerable or high-risk populations, measures to ensure water quality, sanitation, and hygiene. Flood-resilient architecture including stilt and floating houses that mechanically rise and fall with respect to the highest water mark are recommended during flood events. Bridges on swollen rivers and resilient construction materials like reinforced concrete are to be used for sustainable development for flood risk adaptation.

Nitrogen Dioxide, Carbon Monoxide, Natural and Anthropomorphic Effects, and Earth’s Changing Climate

This study will both compare and contrast the characteristics and roles of two pollutants: nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide. It will begin by tracing each gas’ negative contributions to the Earth’s spheres, as well as relate any negative links that each plays concerning human activity, health, and interaction with the environment. It will include an in-depth analysis of what the proliferation of such toxic gases indicates about human production and causality, plus reflect on any current attempts being made to improve the effects of these pollutants on the environment. This examination will also inspect three NASA missions, i.e., MOPITT/Terra, AIRS/Aqua, and OMI/Aura, the aim of which, among many other tasks, is to detect pollutants within the Earth’s various spheres, as well as analyze weather anomalies, improve prediction methodology, and chronicle meteorological patterns for future study. It will also cover some of the goals, engineering breakthroughs, and in one case, the limitations, of these three satellite missions. Finally, it should be noted that in all stages of this discussion, the author’s main aim will be to focus on the positives that need to be implemented in order to improve the current situations that both anthropogenic and natural disasters have created for the planet.

Climate and topography regulate the spatial pattern of soil salinization and its effects on shrub community structure in Northwest China

Soil salinization may affect biodiversity and species composition,leading to changes in the plant community structure.However,few studies have explored the spatial pattern of soil salinization and its effects on shrub community structure at the ecosystem scale.Therefore,we conducted a transect sampling of desert shrublands in Northwest China during the growing season(June–September)in 2021.Soil salinization(both the degree and type),shrub community structure(e.g.,shrub density and height),and biodiversity parameters(e.g.,Simpson diversity,Margalf abundance,Shannon-Wiener diversity,and Pielou evenness indices)were used to assess the effects of soil salinization on shrub community structure.The results showed that the primary degree of soil salinization in the study area was light salinization,with the area proportion of 69.8%.Whereas the main type of soil salinization was characterized as sulfate saline soil,also accounting for 69.8%of the total area.Notably,there was a significant reduction in the degree of soil salinization and a shift in the type of soil salinization from chloride saline soil to sulfate saline soil,with an increase in longitude.Regional mean annual precipitation(MAP),mean annual evapotranspiration(MAE),elevation,and slope significantly contributed to soil salinization and its geochemical differentiation.As soil salinization intensified,shrub community structure displayed increased diversity and evenness,as indicated by the increases in the Simpson diversity,Shannon-Wiener diversity,and Pielou evenness indices.Moreover,the succulent stems and leaves of Chenopodiaceae and Tamaricaceae exhibited clear advantages under these conditions.Furthermore,regional climate and topography,such as MAP,MAE,and elevation,had greater effects on the distribution of shrub plants than soil salinization.These results provide a reference for the origin and pattern of soil salinization in drylands and their effects on the community structure of halophyte shrub species.

Climate-change habitat shifts for the vulnerable endemic oak species(Quercus arkansana Sarg.)

Quercus arkansana(Arkansas oak)is at risk of becoming endangered,as the total known population size is represented by a few isolated populations.The potential impact of climate change on this species in the near future is high,yet knowledge of its predicted effects is limited.Our study utilized the biomod2 R package to develop habi-tat suitability ensemble models based on bioclimatic and topographic environmental variables and the known loca-tions of current distribution of Q.arkansana.We predicted suitable habitats across three climate change scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)for 2050,2070,and 2090.Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for Q.arkansana is approximately 127,881 km^(2) across seven states(Texas,Arkansas,Alabama,Louisiana,Mississippi,Georgia,and Florida);approximately 9.5%is encompassed within state and federally managed protected areas.Our models predict that all current suitable habitats will disap-pear by 2050 due to climate change,resulting in a northward shift into new regions such as Tennessee and Kentucky.The large extent of suitable habitat outside protected areas sug-gests that a species-specific action plan incorporating pro-tected areas and other areas may be crucial for its conserva-tion.Moreover,protection of Q.arkansana habitat against climate change may require locally and regionally focused conservation policies,adaptive management strategies,and educational outreach among local people.

Potential reduction in carbon fixation capacity under climate change in a Pinus koraiensis forest

There has been an increasing recognition of the crucial role of forests, responsible for sequestering atmospheric CO_(2), as a moral imperative for mitigating the pace of climate change. The complexity of evaluating climate change impacts on forest carbon and water dynamics lies in the diverse acclimations of forests to changing environments. In this study, we assessed two of the most common acclimation traits, namely leaf area index and the maximum rate of carboxylation(V_(cmax)), to explore the potential acclimation pathways of Pinus koraiensis under climate change. We used a mechanistic and process-based ecohydrological model applied to a P. koraiensis forest in Mt. Taehwa, South Korea. We conducted numerical investigations into the impacts of(i) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2–4.5(SSP2-4.5) and 5–8.5(SSP5-8.5),(ii) elevated atmospheric CO_(2) and temperature, and(iii) acclimations of leaf area index and V_(cmax)on the carbon and water dynamics of P. koraiensis. We found that there was a reduction in net primary productivity(NPP) under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, but not under SSP5-8.5, compared to the baseline, due to an imbalance between increases in atmospheric CO_(2) and temperature. A decrease in leaf area index and an increase in V_(cmax)of P. koraiensis were expected if acclimations were made to reduce its leaf temperature. Under such acclimation pathways, it would be expected that the well-known CO_(2) fertilizer effects on NPP would be attenuated.

Projected impacts of climate change on the habitat of Xerophyta species in Africa

Climate change poses a serious long-term threat to biodiversity.To effectively reduce biodiversity loss,conservationists need to have a thorough understanding of the preferred habitats of species and the variables that affect their distribution.Therefore,predicting the impact of climate change on speciesappropriate habitats may help mitigate the potential threats to biodiversity distribution.Xerophyta,a monocotyledonous genus of the family Velloziaceae is native to mainland Africa,Madagascar,and the Arabian Peninsula.The key drivers of Xerophyta habitat distribution and preference are unknown.Using 308 species occurrence data and eight environmental variables,the MaxEnt model was used to determine the potential distribution of six Xerophyta species in Africa under past,current and future climate change scenarios.The results showed that the models had a good predictive ability(Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistics values for all SDMs were more than 0.902),indicating high accuracy in forecasting the potential geographic distribution of Xerophyta species.The main bioclimatic variables that impacted potential distributions of most Xerophyta species were mean temperature of the driest quarter(Bio9)and precipitation of the warmest quarter(Bio18).According to our models,tropical Africa has zones of moderate and high suitability for Xerophyta taxa,which is consistent with the majority of documented species localities.The habitat suitability of the existing range of the Xerophyta species varied based on the climate scenario,with most species experiencing a range loss greater than the range gain regardless of the climate scenario.The projected spatiotemporal patterns of Xerophyta species help guide recommendations for conservation efforts.

Spatiotemporal changes of gross primary productivity and its response to drought in the Mongolian Plateau under climate change

Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation GPP provides insight into the spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial carbon sinks,aiding efforts to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change.In this study,we utilized the precipitation and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and the simulated vegetation GPP using the eddy covariance-light use efficiency(EC-LUE)model to analyze the spatiotemporal change of GPP and its response to different drought indices in the Mongolian Plateau during 1982-2018.The main findings indicated that vegetation GPP decreased in 50.53% of the plateau,mainly in its northern and northeastern parts,while it increased in the remaining 49.47%area.Specifically,meadow steppe(78.92%)and deciduous forest(79.46%)witnessed a significant decrease in vegetation GPP,while alpine steppe(75.08%),cropland(76.27%),and sandy vegetation(87.88%)recovered well.Warming aridification areas accounted for 71.39% of the affected areas,while 28.53% of the areas underwent severe aridification,mainly located in the south and central regions.Notably,the warming aridification areas of desert steppe(92.68%)and sandy vegetation(90.24%)were significant.Climate warming was found to amplify the sensitivity of coniferous forest,deciduous forest,meadow steppe,and alpine steppe GPP to drought.Additionally,the drought sensitivity of vegetation GPP in the Mongolian Plateau gradually decreased as altitude increased.The cumulative effect of drought on vegetation GPP persisted for 3.00-8.00 months.The findings of this study will improve the understanding of how drought influences vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas.

Climate-Vegetation Coverage Interactions in the Hengduan Mountains Area, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and Their Downstream Effects

Little is known about the mechanism of climate-vegetation coverage coupled changes in the Tibetan Plateau(TP)region,which is the most climatically sensitive and ecologically fragile region with the highest terrain in the world.This study,using multisource datasets(including satellite data and meteorological observations and reanalysis data)revealed the mutual feedback mechanisms between changes in climate(temperature and precipitation)and vegetation coverage in recent decades in the Hengduan Mountains Area(HMA)of the southeastern TP and their influences on climate in the downstream region,the Sichuan Basin(SCB).There is mutual facilitation between rising air temperature and increasing vegetation coverage in the HMA,which is most significant during winter,and then during spring,but insignificant during summer and autumn.Rising temperature significantly enhances local vegetation coverage,and vegetation greening in turn heats the atmosphere via enhancing net heat flux from the surface to the atmosphere.The atmospheric heating anomaly over the HMA thickens the atmospheric column and increases upper air pressure.The high pressure anomaly disperses downstream via the westerly flow,expands across the SCB,and eventually increases the SCB temperature.This effect lasts from winter to the following spring,which may cause the maximum increasing trend of the SCB temperature and vegetation coverage in spring.These results are helpful for estimating future trends in climate and eco-environmental variations in the HMA and SCB under warming scenarios,as well as seasonal forecasting based on the connection between the HMA eco-environment and SCB climate.

The Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)Project in Central Asia:The Case for a Regional Hydroclimate Project

Central Asia consists of the former Soviet Republics,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan.The region’s climate is continental,mostly semi-arid to arid.Agriculture is a significant part of the region’s economy.By its nature of intensive water use,agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change.Population growth and irrigation development have significantly increased the demand for water in the region.Major climate change issues include melting glaciers and a shrinking snowpack,which are the foundation of the region’s water resources,and a changing precipitation regime.Most glaciers are located in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,leading to transboundary water resource issues.Summer already has extremely high temperatures.Analyses indicate that Central Asia has been warming and precipitation might be increasing.The warming is expected to increase,but its spatial and temporal distribution depends upon specific global scenarios.Projections of future precipitation show significant uncertainties in type,amount,and distribution.Regional Hydroclimate Projects(RHPs)are an approach to studying these issues.Initial steps to develop an RHP began in 2021 with a widely distributed online survey about these climate issues.It was followed up with an online workshop and then,in 2023,an in-person workshop,held in Tashkent,Uzbekistan.Priorities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)project for the region include both observations and modeling,as well as development of better and additional precipitation observations,all of which are topics for the next workshop.A well-designed RHP should lead to reductions in critical climate uncertainties in policy-relevant timeframes that can influence decisions on necessary investments in climate adaptation.

Impact of climate change and human activities on the spatiotemporal dynamics of surface water area in Gansu Province, China

Understanding the dynamics of surface water area and their drivers is crucial for human survival and ecosystem stability in inland arid and semi-arid areas.This study took Gansu Province,China,a typical area with complex terrain and variable climate,as the research subject.Based on Google Earth Engine,we used Landsat data and the Open-surface Water Detection Method with Enhanced Impurity Control method to monitor the spatiotemporal dynamics of surface water area in Gansu Province from 1985 to 2022,and quantitatively analyzed the main causes of regional differences in surface water area.The findings revealed that surface water area in Gansu Province expanded by 406.88 km2 from 1985 to 2022.Seasonal surface water area exhibited significant fluctuations,while permanent surface water area showed a steady increase.Notably,terrestrial water storage exhibited a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,correlated with the dynamics of surface water area.Climate change and human activities jointly affected surface hydrological processes,with the impact of climate change being slightly higher than that of human activities.Spatially,climate change affected the'source'of surface water to a greater extent,while human activities tended to affect the'destination'of surface water.Challenges of surface water resources faced by inland arid and semi-arid areas like Gansu Province are multifaceted.Therefore,we summarized the surface hydrology patterns typical in inland arid and semi-arid areas and tailored surface water'supply-demand'balance strategies.The study not only sheds light on the dynamics of surface water area in Gansu Province,but also offers valuable insights for ecological protection and surface water resource management in inland arid and semi-arid areas facing water scarcity.

Thornthwaite moisture index and depth of suction change under current and future climate‒An Australian study

Climate change is one of the major global challenges and it can have a significant influence on the behaviour and resilience of geotechnical structures.The changes in moisture content in soil lead to effective stress changes and can be accompanied by significant volume changes in reactive/expansive soils.The volume change leads to ground movement and can exert additional stresses on structures founded on or within a shallow depth of such soils.Climate change is likely to amplify the ground movement potential and the associated problems are likely to worsen.The effect of atmospheric boundary interaction on soil behaviour has often been correlated to Thornthwaite moisture index(TMI).In this study,the long-term weather data and anticipated future projections for various emission scenarios were used to generate a series of TMI maps for Australia.The changes in TMI were then correlated to the depth of suction change(H s),an important input in ground movement calculation.Under all climate scenarios considered,reductions in TMI and increases in H s values were observed.A hypothetical design scenario of a footing on expansive soil under current and future climate is discussed.It is observed that a design that might be considered adequate under the current climate scenario,may fail under future scenarios and accommodations should be made in the design for such events.

Phenology of different types of vegetation and their response to climate change in the Qilian Mountains,China

The Qilian Mountains(QM)possess a delicate vegetation ecosystem,amplifying the evident response of vegetation phenology to climate change.The relationship between changes in vegetation growth and climate remains complex.To this end,we used MODIS NDVI data to extract the phenological parameters of the vegetation including meadow(MDW),grassland(GSD),and alpine vegetation(ALV))in the QM from 2002 to 2021.Then,we employed path analysis to reveal the direct and indirect impacts of seasonal climate change on vegetation phenology.Additionally,we decomposed the vegetation phenology in a time series using the trigonometric seasonality,Box-Cox transformation,ARMA errors,and Trend Seasonal components model(TBATS).The findings showed a distinct pattern in the vegetation phenology of the QM,characterized by a progressive shift towards an earlier start of the growing season(SOS),a delayed end of the growing season(EOS),and an extended length of the growing season(LOS).The growth cycle of MDW,GSD,and ALV in the QM species is clearly defined.The SOS for MDW and GSD occurred earlier,mainly between late April and August,while the SOS for ALVs occurred between mid-May and mid-August,a one-month delay compared to the other vegetation.The EOS in MDW and GSD were concentrated between late August and April and early September and early January,respectively.Vegetation phenology exhibits distinct responses to seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns.The advancement and delay of SOS were mainly influenced by the direct effect of spring temperatures and precipitation,which affected 19.59%and 22.17%of the study area,respectively.The advancement and delay of EOS were mainly influenced by the direct effect of fall temperatures and precipitation,which affected 30.18%and 21.17%of the area,respectively.On the contrary,the direct effects of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter on vegetation phenology seem less noticeable and were mainly influenced by indirect effects.The indirect effect of winter precipitation is the main factor affecting the advance or delay of SOS,and the area proportions were 16.29%and 23.42%,respectively.The indirect effects of fall temperatures and precipitation were the main factors affecting the delay and advancement of EOS,respectively,with an area share of 15.80%and 21.60%.This study provides valuable insight into the relationship between vegetation phenology and climate change,which can be of great practical value for the ecological protection of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau as well as for the development of GSD ecological animal husbandry in the QM alpine pastoral area.

Direct-Seeded Rice: Genetic Improvement of Game-Changing Traits for Better Adaption

The sustainability of rice production continues to be a subject of uncertainty and inquiry attributed to shifts in climatic conditions. In light of the impending climate change crisis and the high labor and water costs accompanying it, direct-seeded rice(DSR) is unquestionably one of the most practical solutions. Despite its resource and climate-friendly advantages, early maturing rice faces weed competitiveness and seedling establishment challenges. Resolving these issues is crucial for promoting its wider adoption among farmers, presenting it as a more effective sustainable rice cultivation method globally. Diverse traditional and contemporary breeding methods are employed to mitigate the limitations of the DSR approach, leveraging advanced techniques such as speed breeding and genome editing. Focusing on key traits like mesocotyl length elongation, early seedling vigor, root system architecture, and weed competitiveness holds promise for transformative improvements in DSR adaptation at a broader scale within farming communities. This review aims to summarize how these features contribute to increased crop production in DSR conditions and explore the research efforts focusing on enhancing DSR adaptation through these traits. Emphasizing the pivotal role of these game-changing traits in DSR adaptation, our analysis sheds light on their potential transformative impact and offers valuable insights for advancing DSR practices.

Comparative Assessment of Impacts of Future Climate Change on Runoff in Upper Daqinghe Basin,China

Assessing runoff changes is of great importance especially its responses to the projected future climate change on local scale basins because such analyses are generally done on global and regional scales which may lead to generalized conclusions rather than specific ones.Climate change affected the runoff variation in the past in the upper Daqinghe Basin,however,the climate was mainly considered uncertain and still needs further studies,especially its future impacts on runoff for better water resources management and planning.Integrated with a set of climate simulations,a daily conceptual hydrological model(MIKE11-NAM)was applied to assess the impact of climate change on runoff conditions in the Daomaguan,Fuping and Zijingguan basins in the upper Daqinghe Basin.Historical hydrological data(2008–2017)were used to evaluate the applicability of the MIKE11-NAM model.After bias correction,future projected climate change and its impacts on runoff(2025–2054)were analysed and compared to the baseline period(1985–2014)under three shared social economic pathways(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)simulations.The MIKE-11 NAM model was applicable in all three Basins,with both R^(2)and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients greater than 0.6 at daily scale for both calibration(2009–2011)and validation(2012–2017)periods,respectively.Although uncertainties remain,temperature and precipitation are projected to increase compared to the baseline where higher increases in precipitation and temperature are projected to occur under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively in all the basins.Precipitation changes will range between 12%–19%whereas temperature change will be 2.0℃–2.5℃ under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.In addition,higher warming is projected to occur in colder months than in warmer months.Overall,the runoff of these three basins is projected to respond to projected climate changes differently because runoff is projected to only increase in the Fuping basin under SSP2-4.5 whereas decreases in both Daomaguan and Zijingguan Basins under all scenarios.This study’s findings could be important when setting mitigation strategies for climate change and water resources management.

A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.

Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.

Projected impacts of climate change and anthropogenic effects on habitat distribution of endangered Javan Hawk-Eagle in Indonesia

Changing climate will jeopardize biodiversity,particularly the geographic distribution of endemic species.One such species is the Javan Hawk-Eagle(JHE,Nisaetus bartelsi),a charismatic raptor found only on Java Island,Indonesia.Thus,it is crucial to develop an appropriate conservation strategy to preserve the species.Ecological niche modeling is considered a valuable tool for designing conservation plans for the JHE.We provide an ecological niche modeling approach and transfer its model to future climate scenarios for the JHE.We utilize various machine learning algorithms under sustainability and business-as-usual(BAU)scenarios for 2050.Additionally,we investigate the conservation vulnerability of the JHE,capturing multifaceted pressures on the species from climate dissimilarities and human disturbance variables.Our study reveals that the ensemble model performs exceptionally well,with temperature emerging as the most critical factor affecting the JHE distribution.This finding indicates that climate change will have a significant impact on the JHE species.Our results suggest that the JHE distribution will likely decrease by 28.41%and 40.16%from the current JHE distribution under sustainability and BAU scenarios,respectively.Furthermore,our study reveals high-potential refugia for future JHE,covering 7,596 km^(2)(61%)under the sustainability scenario and only 4,403 km^(2)(35%)under the BAU scenario.Therefore,effective management and planning,including habitat restoration,refugia preservation,habitat connectivity,and local community inclusivity,should be well-managed to achieve JHE conservation targets.

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.