Notes on Business Climate Index and Entrepreneur Confidence Index

To better demonstrate the economic forecasting function of business climate survey,China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center(CEMAC) revised the calculation methodology of Business Climate Index(BCI) and Entrepreneur Confidence Index(ECI) from 2012Q 1.The details are as below:

Notes on Business Climate Index and Entrepreneur Confidence Index

To better demonstrate the economic forecasting function of business climate survey,China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center(CEMAC)revised the calculation methodology of Business Climate Index(BCI)and Entrepreneur Confidence Index(ECI)from 2012Q1.The details are as below: Calculation methodology:Business Climate Index(BCI)is a weighted-average of current situation index (mainly reflects entrepreneurs’judgment on the business operation in the current situation)and expectation index (mainly reflects entrepreneurs’judgment on the business operation in the future),where current situation

Change in Extreme Climate Events over China Based on CMIP5

The changes in a selection of extreme climate indices(maximum of daily maximum temperature(TXx),minimum of daily minimum temperature(TNn),annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation(very wet days,R95p),and the maximum number of consecutive days with less than 1 mm of precipitation(consecutive dry days,CDD))were projected using multi-model results from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in the early,middle,and latter parts of the 21st century under different Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emissions scenarios.The results suggest that TXx and TNn will increase in the future and,moreover,the increases of TNn under all RCPs are larger than those of TXx.R95p is projected to increase and CDD to decrease significantly.The changes in TXx,TNn,R95p,and CDD in eight sub-regions of China are different in the three periods of the 21st century,and the ranges of change for the four indices under the higher emissions scenario are projected to be larger than those under the lower emissions scenario.The multi-model simulations show remarkable consistency in their projection of the extreme temperature indices,but poor consistency with respect to the extreme precipitation indices.More substantial inconsistency is found in those regions where high and low temperatures are likely to happen for TXx and TNn,respectively.For extreme precipitation events(R95p),greater uncertainty appears in most of the southern regions,while for drought events(CDD)it appears in the basins of Xinjiang.The uncertainty in the future changes of the extreme climate indices increases with the increasing severity of the emissions scenario.

Research on the Key Factors of Agricultural Climate in Cultivation Division of High-quality Tobacco in Qianxinan

[Objective] This research was to provide technical guidance for the cultivation of high-quality tobacco in Qianxinan area.[Method] Through analyzing the conditions of main tobacco cultivation areas in Qianxinan including temperature,precipitation and sunshine,the influence factors of tobacco yield and quality in Qianxinan were investigated.[Result] The altitude of Division I was 450-1 650 m,its days with temperature equal to or higher than 20℃ were about 80 d,its active accumulated temperature was 1 200-2 100℃ and its annual average temperature was 13.5-14.6℃.The altitude of Division II was 1 300-1 450 m,its days with temperature equal to or higher than 20℃ were about 110 d,its active accumulated temperature was 2 100-2 700℃ and its annual average temperature was 14.6-16.3℃.The altitude of Division III was 1 050-1 300 m,its days with temperature equal to or higher than 20℃ were about 150 d,its active accumulated temperature was 2 700-3 600℃ and its annual average temperature was 16.3-17.0℃.Division IV was divided into 2 areas,the altitude of Area 1 was lower than 1 000 m,its days with temperature equal to or higher than 20℃ were more than 160 d,its active accumulated temperature was higher than 3 600℃ and its annual average temperature was higher than 17.5℃;the altitude of Area 2 was higher than 1 700 m,its days with temperature equal to or higher than 20℃ were basically none and its annual average temperature was lower than 1.30℃.[Conclusion] In this research,the agricultural climate index conditions for cultivation of high-quality tobacco in areas at different altitudes were suggested and some references were provided for developing tobacco production in Guizhou.

Features of Climate Change in Northwest China during 1961-2010

In this study, observational data from 141 meteorological stations in Northwest China, including temperature, precipitation, dust storm, gale days and wind speed, were analyzed statistically to gain insight of the features of basic climate index and extreme climate events. The results showed that the annual mean temperature and seasonal mean temperature rose significantly, and the rising rate of the annual mean temperature is 0.27℃ per decade; the extreme high temperature days have increased; the interdecadal change of annual precipitation is marked, and the precipitation in winter and summer increased slightly, while decreased slightly in spring and autumn. The annual precipitation increased in the area west of the Yellow River, whereas decreased in the area east of the river. The drought had an increasing trend. There were 17 droughts during 1961-2010, and 10 droughts from 1991 to 2010. The number of droughts in spring and autumn increased, while decreased in summer.

Seasonal Prediction of Monthly Precipitation in China Using Large-Scale Climate Indices

In this study, seasonal predictions were applied to precipitation in China on a monthly basis based on a multivariate linear regression with an adaptive choice of predictors drawn from regularly updated climate indices with a two to twelve month lead time. A leave-one-out cross validation was applied to obtain hindcast skill at a 1% significance level. The skill of forecast models at a monthly scale and their significance levels were evaluated using Anomaly Correlation Coefficients （ACC） and Coefficients Of Determination （COD）. The monthly ACC skill ranged between 0.43 and 0.50 in Central China, 0.41-0.57 in East China, and 0.41 0.60 in South China. The dynamic link between large-scale climate indices with lead time and the precipitation in China is also discussed based on Singular Value Decomposition Analysis （SVDA） and Correlation Analysis （CA）.

Relations between Low-Frequency Modes of Climate Variability and Air-Sea Heat Flux at the Mediterranean Interface

The main objective of this work is to examine statistical causality relationships between low-frequency modes of climate variability and winter （December to February） anomaly of net heat flux at the Mediterranean air-sea interface. The introduction of the concept of Granger causality allowed us to examine the influence of these climates indices on the net heat flux anomaly and to select Mediterranean surface regions that really influenced by each index. Results show that the winter anomaly of the net heat flux in the Algerian basin south and the gulf of Lion is mainly caused by the Arctic Oscillation. El Nifio-Southern Oscillation influences much more the Algerian basin north and the northern lonian Sea. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation affects only the Alboran and the Tyrrhenian Seas. But the Adriatic and Levantine basin are impacted by any climate index. They also show that these climate indices can increase explained variance in winter variations of air-sea net heat flux by 10% to 15%, with a lag of three seasons. These relationships are less persistent and spatially limited.

Perceiving the Trend of Terrestrial Climate Change during the Past 40 year(1978-2018)

In past few decades,climate has manifested numerous shifts in its trend.Various natural and anthropogenic factors have influenced the dynamics and the trends of climate change at longer time scale.To understand the long term climate fluctuations,we have analyzed forty years(1978-2018)data of ten climatic parameters that are responsible to influence the climate dynamics.The parameters involved in the present study are total solar irradiance(TSI),ultra violet(UV)index,cloud cover,carbon dioxide(CO2)abundances,multivariate(ENSO)index,volcanic explosivity index(VEI),global surface temperature(GST)anomaly,global sea ice extent,global mean sea level and global precipitation anomaly.Using the above mentioned climate entities;we have constructed a proxy index to study the quantitative measure of the climate change.In this process these indicators were aggregated to a single proxy index as global climate index(GCI)that has measured the strength of present climate change in semblance with the past natural variability.To construct GCI,the principal component analysis(PCA)has been used on yearly based data for the period 1978-2018.Actually PCA is a statistical tool with which we can reduce the dimensionality of the data and it retains most of the variation in the new data set.Further,we have confined our study to natural climate drivers and anthropogenic climate drivers.Our result has indicated that the strongest climate change has been occurred globally by the end of the year 2018 in comparison to late 1970’s natural variability.

Regional Variability of Climate Change Hot-Spots in East Asia

The regional climate change index （RCCI） is employed to investigate hot-spots under 21st century global warming over East Asia. The RCCI is calculated on a 1-degree resolution grid from the ensemble of CMIP3 simulations for the B1, AIB, and A2 IPCC emission scenarios. The RCCI over East Asia exhibits marked sub-regional variability. Five sub-regional hot-spots are identified over the area of investigation： three in the northern regions （Northeast China, Mongolia, and Northwest China）, one in eastern China, and one over the Tibetan Plateau. Contributions from different factors to the RCCI are discussed for the sub-regions. Analysis of the temporal evolution of the hot-spots throughout the 21st century shows different speeds of response time to global warming for the different sub-regions. Hot-spots firstly emerge in Northwest China and Mongolia. The Northeast China hot-spot becomes evident by the mid of the 21st century and it is the most prominent by the end of the century. While hot-spots are generally evident in all the 5 sub-regions for the A1B and A2 scenarios, only the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China hot-spots emerge in the B1 scenario, which has the lowest greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations. Our analysis indicates that subregional hot-spots show a rather complex spatial and temporal dependency on the GHG concentration and on the different factors contributing to the RCCI.

Impacts of climate change on the potential forest productivity based on a climate-driven biophysical model in northeastern China

Climate warming is expected to influence forest growth,composition and distribution.However,accurately estimating and predicting forest biomass,potential productivity or forest growth is still a challenge for forest managers dealing with land-use at the stand to regional levels.In the present study,we predicted the potential productivity(PP)of forest under current and future climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5)in Jilin province,northeastern China by using Paterson’s Climate Vegetation and Productivity(CVP)index model.The PP was validated by comparing it with the mean and maximum net primary production calculated from light energy utilization(GLM_PEM).Our results indicated that using the CVP index model is partially valid for predicting the potential forest productivity in northeastern China.PP exhibited obvious spatial heterogeneity varying from 4.6 to 8.9 m3 ha-1 year-1 with an increasing tendency from northwest to southeast driven by the precipitation across the region.The number of vegetation-active months,precipitation and insolation coefficient were identified as the primary factors affecting PP,but no significant relationship was found for warmest temperature or temperature fluctuation.Under future climate scenarios,PP across the Jilin Province is expected to increase from 1.38%(RCP2.6 in 2050)to 15.30%(RCP8.5 in 2070),especially in the eastern Songnen Plain(SE)for the RCP8.5 scenarios.

Evaluation on Climate Suitability in Main Growth Stages of Zhaotong Apple in Recent 60 Years

Based on daily average temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours during 1961-2018 from two meteorological stations of Zhaoyang District and Ludian County at Zhaolubazi,Zhaotong City,Yunnan Province,using the freezing injury index at flowering stage(Ha),climatic suitability index during expansion period(Pa),climatic suitability index during coloring period(Dy)and climatic suitability index during fruit growing period(Si),etc.,the climatic suitability of Zhaotong apple during the main growth stages was evaluated.The results showed that the annual average temperature was 11.8-12.3℃at Zhaolu Bazi in recent 60 years,and the climate was the most suitable for Fuji apple planting both in the south and north;the average annual precipitation was 674.8-852.6 mm,and the climate was suitable in the north and sub-suitable in the south;the annual average sunshine hours was between 1845.4 and 1851.1 h,and the climate was sub-suitable in both areas.The Ha was between 0.42-0.50,serious in the north and moderate in the south;the Pa was between 0.92 and 1.02,and both the south and the north were suitable areas;the Dy was between 0.95 and 1.00,and the climate in the south was suitable,while it was sub-suitable in the north;the Si was between 1.38 and 1.59,and the climate was suitable in the south and sub-suitable in the north.There was a 4-year cycle in the interannual variation of Ha,Pa,Dy and Si.After the 1980s,the Ha decreased by 0.56-0.59,the Pa,Dy and Si respectively increased by 0.10-0.16,0.14-0.15 and 0.78-0.84 with the temperature rise,and the changes of these four indexes were all favorable for Fuji apple's fruits growth.It can be seen that under the background of the global warming,the climatic conditions in Zhaolu Bazi are becoming more and more favorable for popularizing the planting of Fuji apple.

Analysis of the Correlation between Tourism and Climate in the Ancient City of Langzhong

Based on the meteorological data of Langzhong from 1981 to 2016,a comprehensive comfort index model of tourism climate suitable for Langzhong is established by calculating the meteorological and climatic factors affecting tourism in the ancient city of Langzhong.The model is used to evaluate the climate comprehensive comfort of Langzhong,and its grades and suitable tourism periods are divided.Based on the monthly index of passenger flow volume in the ancient city of Langzhong from 2013 to 2015,a mathematical model is established through OLS regression analysis to analyze the correlation between changes in monthly passenger flow volume in a year and the comprehensive comfort of tourism climate in the ancient city of Langzhong.The results show that the climate in Langzhong is suitable for tourism in spring and autumn.It is suitable for tourism from February to June and from September to December,of which it is most suitable for tourism from April to May and from September to October.It is less suitable for tourism in only January and from July to August,and there is no unsuitable period.The changes in monthly passenger flow volume in a year are mainly affected by the meteorology and climate.The changes of climate comprehensive comfort in various month have an extremely significant impact on passenger flow volume.The elastic coefficient of impact of climate comprehensive comfort index on the monthly index of passenger flow volume is 0.9614%.

Climatic Factors for Limiting Northward Distribution of Eight Temperate Tree Species in Eastern North America

Eight temperate deciduous tree species, Acer rubrum L., A. saccharinum L., A. saccharum Marsh., Belluta alleghaniensis Britton., Fraxinus nigra Marsh., Quercus rubra L., Titia americana L., and Ulmus americana L. in eastern North America, were selected to explore relationship between the northward distribution of temperate tree species and climatic factors. For each species, more than 30 sites at their north limits of distribution were obtained from their distribution maps, and 11 climatic indices at the north limits were computed. The standardized standard deviation (SD) method, which compares the magnitude of variance of climatic indices, was used to detect which climatic parameter was the most important for explaining northward distribution of these species. We presume that the climatic parameter that has the smallest variance at the north limit would be assigned as the dominant climatic factor for limiting the distribution of this species. The results derived from the standardized SD method indicated that the SD value of warmth index (WI) and/or annual biotemperature (ABT) were the smallest among the 11 climatic indices. Since both WI and ABT represent growing season temperature, it suggested that growing season temperature was the most important climatic factor for explaining the northward distribution of these temperate tree species. The relationships between several climatic indices, WI, coldness index (CI), annual precipitation (AP), annual range of temperature (ART) and humid/arid index were also analyzed. As a result, at the north limits of all these species, both WI and CI decreased with an increase of AP, and CI increased with an increase of ART. Besides growing season temperature, precipitation and climatic continentality also have influence on the northward distribution of the temperate trees in eastern North America.

Ranking Regional Drought Events in China for 1960-2009

The spatiotemporal variations of the site and regional droughts in China during 1960–2009 were analyzed by applying a daily composite-drought index （CDI） to 722 stations in China's Mainland. Droughts frequently happened in a zone extended from Southwest China to the Yellow River, North China, and the southwestern part of Northeast China, with two centers of high frequency in North China and Southwest China. In Southwest and South China, droughts tend to happen during the winter. In North China and along the Yellow River, droughts mainly occur during the winter and during May–June. During the past 50 years, the geographical distribution of site drought events showed high frequencies （0.9–1.3 times per year） in the upper Yellow River basin and North China, comparing with moderate frequencies （0.6–0.9 times per year） in Southwest China and the southwestern part of Northeast China and with lower frequencies over the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. And the frequencies increased over China's Mainland except for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. A regional drought （RD） event is a widespread and persistent event that covers at least five adjacent sites and lasts for at least 10 days. There were 252 RD events in the past 50 years—five times per year. Most RD events lasted for 100 days and covered 100 stations, but the longest and largest RD event lasted for 307 days from 6 September 1998 to 9 July 1999 and covered 327 stations from North to Southwest China.

Construction and Application of a Climate Risk Index for China

In the context of global warming,China is facing with increasing climate risks.It is imperative to develop quantitative indices to reflect the climate risks caused by extreme weather/climate events and adverse climatic conditions in association with different industries.Based on the observations at 2288 meteorological stations in China and the meteorological disasters data,a set of indices are developed to measure climate risks due to water-logging,drought,high temperature,cryogenic freezing,and typhoon.A statistical method is then used to construct an overall climate risk index(CRI)for China from these individual indices.There is a good correspondence between these indices and historical climatic conditions.The CRI,the index of water-logging by rain,and the high temperature index increase at a rate of 0.28,0.37,and 0.65 per decade,respectively,from 1961 to 2016.The cryogenic freezing index is closely related to changes in the consumer price index for food.The high temperature index is correlated with the consumption of energy and electricity.The correlation between the yearly growth in claims on household property insurance and the sum of the water-logging index and the typhoon index in the same year is as high as 0.70.Both the growth rate of claims on agricultural insurance and the annual growth rate of hospital inpatients are positively correlated with the CRI.The year-on-year growth in the number of domestic tourists is significantly negatively correlated with the CRI in the same year.More efforts are needed to develop regional CRIs.

Comparison of the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation between the Changbai Mountains of eastern Eurasia and the Appalachian Mountains of eastern North America

The Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains have similar spatial contexts.The elevation,latitude,and moisture gradients of both mountain ranges offer regional insight for investigating the vegetation dynamics in eastern Eurasia and eastern North America.We determined and compared the spatial patterns and temporal trends in the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)in the Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains using time series data from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies 3^(rd) generation dataset from 1982 to 2013.The spatial pattern of NDVI in the Changbai Mountains exhibited fragmentation,whereas NDVI in the Appalachian Mountains decreased from south to north.The vegetation dynamics in the Changbai Mountains had an insignificant trend at the regional scale,whereas the dynamics in the Appalachian Mountains had a significant increasing trend.NDVI increased in 55% of the area of the Changbai Mountains and in 95% of the area of the Appalachian Mountains.The peak NDVI occurred one month later in the Changbai Mountains than in the Appalachian Mountains.The results revealed a significant increase in NDVI in autumn in both mountain ranges.The climatic trend in the Changbai Mountains included warming and decreased precipitation,and whereas that in the Appalachian Mountains included significant warming and increased precipitation.Positive and negative correlations existed between NDVI and temperature and precipitation,respectively,in both mountain ranges.Particularly,the spring temperature and NDVI exhibited a significant positive correlation in both mountain ranges.The results of this study suggest that human actives caused the differences in the spatial patterns of NDVI and that various characteristics of climate change and intensity of human actives dominated the differences in the NDVI trends between the Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains.Additionally,the vegetation dynamics of both mountain ranges were not identical to those in previous broader-scale studies.

Seasonal and inter-annual variations of Arctic cyclones and their linkage with Arctic sea ice and atmospheric teleconnections

The seasonal and inter-annual variations of Arctic cyclone are investigated. An automatic cyclone tracking algorithm developed by University of Reading was applied on the basis of European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts（ECMWF） ERA-interim mean sea level pressure field with 6 h interval for 34 a period. The maximum number of the Arctic cyclones is counted in winter, and the minimum is in spring not in summer.About 50% of Arctic cyclones in summer generated from south of 70°N, moving into the Arctic. The number of Arctic cyclones has large inter-annual and seasonal variabilities, but no significant linear trend is detected for the period 1979–2012. The spatial distribution and linear trends of the Arctic cyclones track density show that the cyclone activity extent is the widest in summer with significant increasing trend in CRU（central Russia）subregion, and the largest track density is in winter with decreasing trend in the same subregion. The linear regressions between the cyclone track density and large-scale indices for the same period and pre-period sea ice area indices show that Arctic cyclone activities are closely linked to large-scale atmospheric circulations, such as Arctic Oscillation（AO）, North Atlantic Oscillation（NAO） and Pacific-North American Pattern（PNA）. Moreover,the pre-period sea ice area is significantly associated with the cyclone activities in some regions.

Impacts of Drought and Human Activity on Vegetation Growth in the Grain for Green Program Region,China

The Chinese government adopted six ecological restoration programs to improve its natural environments. Although these programs have proven successful in improving local environments, some studies have questioned their performance when regions suffer from drought. Whether we should consider the effects of drought on vegetation change in assessments of the benefits of ecological restoration programs is unclear. Therefore, taking the Grain for Green Program(GGP) region as a study area, we estimated vegetation growth in the region from 2000–2010 to clarify the trends in vegetation and their driving forces. Results showed that: 1) vegetation growth increased in the GGP region during 2000–2010, with 59.4% of the area showing an increase in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI). This confirmed the benefits of the ecological restoration program. 2) Drought can affect the vegetation change trend, but human activity plays a significant role in altering vegetation growth, and the slight downward trend in the NDVI was not consistent with the severity of the drought. Positive human activity led to increased NDVI in 89.13% of areas. Of these, 22.52% suffered drought, but positive human activity offset the damage in part. 3) Results of this research suggest that appropriate human activity can maximize the benefits of ecological restoration programs and minimize the effects of extreme weather. We therefore recommend incorporating eco-risk assessment and scientific management mechanisms in the design and management of ecosystem restoration programs.

Effect of climatic change on surface environments in the typical region of Horqin Sandy Land

The town of Agura,a typical region in Horqin Sandy Land,was selected as the study area in this paper.Using 12 remote sensing images and climatic data from the past 20 years,the effects of climate change on surface environments were analyzed.The impact indices of climatic factors,along with their corresponding ranks,were used to characterize the responses of different types of surface environments to climate change.Results show that in the past 20 years,the surface environments of the study area have been deteriorating.Furthermore,there is a positive relationship between the changes in surface environments and those in climatic factors.Various climatic factors influence surface environments in different ways and at different levels.The most sensitive factor is relative humidity,followed by precipitation and evaporation.Overall,moisture is the key factor that affects the changes in surface environments of arid and semi-arid areas.

Analysis on Climatic and Synoptic Characteristics of Thunderstorm Gale Weather in Jiangsu

By using observation and sounding data at 68 artificial observatories of Jiangsu Province during 2009- 2013,thunderstorm gale weather and its climatic characteristics in Jiangsu were conducted statistics. The characteristics of some instability indexes and strong convection parameters were analyzed,and environmental parameters of dry and wet thunderstorm gales were contrasted. Results showed that thunderstorm gale in Jiangsu had the characteristics of high occurrence frequency,local feature and stronger intensity. It was mostly accompanied by precipitation,and had obvious seasonal and daily change characteristics. Synoptics analysis showed that temperature-humidity profile characteristics before thunderstorm gale appeared in Jiangsu mainly had four types： bell mouth type,inverted V type,dry unstable type and wet unstable type. Before thunderstorm gale occurred,atmospheric instability was stronger,and some strong convection parameters all had certain instructions. But the forecasts of some thunderstorm gale processes were easy to be missed by only considering CAPE. Environmental condition difference of generating dry and wet thunderstorm gale was that instability of dry thunderstorm gale was stronger than that of wet thunderstorm gale. Before dry thunderstorm gale occurred,environmental temperature at middle-low layer was lower; lapse rate was larger; humidity was small. Before wet thunderstorm gale occurred,environmental temperature was higher; lapse rate was small; humidity was large. At dynamic structure,vertical wind shear at 0- 6 km of dry thunderstorm gale was significantly stronger than that of wet thunderstorm gale.