Sensitivity analysis of glacier systems to climate warming in China

Data of 44 glacier systems in China used in this paper were obtained from Chinese Glacier Inventories and the meteorological data were got from Meteorological Atlas of Plateau of west China. Based on the statistical analysis and functional model simulation results of the 44 glacier systems in China, the glacier systems were divided into extremely-sensitive glacier system, semi-sensitive glacier system, extremely-steady glacier system and semi-steady glacier system in terms of glacier system＇s level of water-energy exchange, rising gradient of the equilibrium line altitudes and retreating rate of area to climate warming, their median size and vertical span distribution, and their runoff characteristics to climate warming. Furthermore the functional model of glacier system to climate warming was applied in this paper to predict the average variation trends of the 4 types of glacier systems, which indicate that different sensitivity types of glacier systems respond to the climate warming differently.

The Possible Effect of Climate Warming on Northern Limits of Cropping System and Crop Yield in China

Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more and more attention from Chinese government and scientists. In this study, the possible effects of climate warming on the national northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation in China from 1981 to 2007 were analyzed. Also, the possible change of crop yield caused by planting limits displacement during the periods 1950s-1981 and 1981-2007 was compared and discussed. The recognized calculation methods of agricultural climatic indices were employed. According to the indices of climatic regionalization for cropping systems, the national northern limits of cropping systems, winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation during two periods, including the 1950s-1980 and 1981-2007, were drawn with ArcGIS software. Compared with the situation during the 1950s- 1980, the northern limits of double cropping system during 1981-2007 showed significant spatial displacement in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning provinces and Beijing municipality, China. The northern limits of triple cropping system showed the maximum spatial displacement in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, China. Without considering variety change and social economic factors, the per unit area grain yield of main planting patterns would increase about 54-106% if single cropping system was replaced by double cropping system, which turned out to be 27- 58% if double cropping system was replaced by triple cropping system. In Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia autonomous regions, China, the northern limits of winter wheat during 1981-2007 moved northward and expanded westward in different degrees, compared with those during the 1950s-1980. Taking Hebei Province as an example, the northern limits of winter wheat moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would averagely increase about 25% in the change region if the spring wheat was replaced by winter wheat. In Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan provinces, China, the planting northern limits of double rice moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would increase in different degrees only from the perspective of heat resource. The stable- yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward in most regions, which was caused by the decrease of local precipitation in recent years. During the past 50 yr, climate warming made the national northern limits of cropping systems move northward in different degrees, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice both moved northward, and the cropping system change would cause the increase of per unit area grain yield in the change region. However, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward due to the decrease of precipitation.

Influence of climate warming and nitrogen deposition on soil phosphorus composition and phosphorus availability in a temperate grassland,China

Climate warming and nitrogen （N） deposition change ecosystem processes, structure, and functioning whereas the phosphorus （P） composition and availability directly influence the ecosystem structure under condi- tions of N deposition. In our study, four treatments were designed, including a control, diurnal warming （DW）, N deposition （ND）, and combined warming and N deposition （WN）. The effects of DW, ND, and WN on P composition were studied by 3~p nuclear magnetic resonance （3~p NMR） spectroscopy in a temperate grassland region of China. The results showed that the N deposition decreased the soil pH and total N （TN） concentration but increased the soil OIsen-P concentration. The solution-state 31p NMR analysis showed that the DW, ND and WN treatments slightly decreased the proportion of orthophosphate and increased that of the monoesters. An absence of myo-inositol phosphate in the DW, ND and WN treatments was observed compared with the control. Furthermore, the DW, ND and WN treatments significantly decreased the recovery of soil P in the NaOH-EDTA solution by 17%-20%. The principal component analysis found that the soil pH was positively correlated with the P recovery in the NaOH-EDTA solution. Therefore, the decreased soil P recovery in the DW and ND treatments might be caused by an indirect influence on the soil pH. Additionally, the soil moisture content was the key factor limiting the available P. The positive correlation of total carbon （TC） and TN with the soil P composition indicated the influence of climate warming and N deposition on the biological processes in the soil P cycling.

Warm–dry collocation of recent drought in southwestern China tied to moisture transport and climate warming

This study aims to investigate the recent drought in southwestern China and its association with environmental changes in moisture transport （MT） and atmospheric circulation. Climatic Research Unit grid data, in situ observations in China, and ERA-interim reanalysis are used to study the characteristics of the drought and the associated mechanism. Recent precipitation trends show a pattern of ＂Northern wetting and Southern drying＂, similar to the anti-phase of the climate pattern prevailing during 1980--2000 in China's Mainland; southwestern China incurred a severe drought during 2009-20l 3. Wavelet analysis reveals that the drought coincides with a warm-dry phase of temperature and precipitation on a period of about 20 years and beyond 100 years, where contributions account for 43% and 57% of the deficiency of the precipitation, averaged for 2003-2012, respectively. A further investigation reveals that the drought results chiefly from the decline of the southwestern monsoon MT toward southwestern China, in addition to mid-latitude circulation changes, which leads to more blockings near the Ural Mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk in the rainy season and negative anomalies around Lake Baikal and northeast China in the dry season. These anomalies are likely to be correlated with global sea surface temperature changes and need to be studied further.

Differences in response of desert plants of different ecotypes to climate warming:a case study in Minqin, Northwest China

Globally climates are warming. How do desert plants of different ecotypes respond to the climate change？ This paper studied the differing responses to climate warming shown by desert plants of different ecotypes through analyzing the phenology and meteorological data of 22 desert plant species growing in Minqin Desert Bo- tanical Garden in Northwest China during the period 1974-2009. The results indicate： （1） The temperature in the study area has risen quickly since 1974, and plants＇ growing periods became longer. The spring phenology of mesophytes advanced, and the autumn phenology of xerophytes was delayed; （2） The starting dates of spring phenophase of mesophytes and xerophytes differed significantly and both showed an advancing trend; （3） The spring phenology of mesophytes advanced by more days than that of xerophytes, whereas the autumn phenology of mesophytes was delayed by less days than that of the xerophytes; and （4） Mesophytes are more sensitive than xerophytes to rising temperature in spring and falling temperature in autumn. These findings are of value in plant management and regional introduction of different species.

Analysis on the Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation in Benxi Area under the Background of Climate Warming

[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Benxi area under the background of climate warming.[Method] Based on the monthly mean temperature and precipitation data of four routine meteorological stations in Benxi area from 1953 to 2010,by using linear tendency rate,linear regression equation,wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall detection and so on,the variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation under the background of climate warming in the area were analyzed.[Result] The annual average temperature during 1953-2010 in Benxi area presented rise trend,and the linear tendency rate was 0.28 ℃/10 a.It was temperature increase trend in four seasons.The temperature rise rate in winter was the maximum and was the minimum in summer.The annual rainfall presented decrease trend,and the linear tendency rate was-18.16 mm/10 a.Except in spring,it was decrease trend in other seasons.Mann-Kendall mutation detection showed that the mutation of annual average temperature in Benxi area in recent 58 years appeared in 1986.There was no mutation phenomenon in summer.Spring mutation appeared in 1974,and autumn mutation appeared in 1987.Winter mutation was in 1981.The annual and seasonal precipitation didn’t have the mutation phenomenon.The wavelet analysis found that the annual average temperature had the periodic variations of 12-14,5-6 and 2 years in Benxi area in recent 58 years.The annual rainfall had the periodic fluctuations of 8-12,5-6 and 2 years.[Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for exploration and sustainable development of the climate resources in the mountain area.

Responses to climate warming of hydrological processes in the upper Kelan River in the Altay Mountains, Xinjiang, China

Kelan River is a branch of the Ertix River, originating in the Altay Mountains in Xinjiang, northwestern China. The upper streams of the Kelan River are located on the southern slope of the Altay Mountains; they arise from small glacial lakes at an elevation of more than 2,500 m. The total water-collection area of the studied basin, from 988 to 3,480 m, is about 1,655 km2. Almost 95 percent of the basin area is covered with snow in winter. The westerly air masses deplete nearly all the moisture that comes in the form of snow during the winter months in the upper and middle reaches of the basin. That annual flow from the basin is about 382 mm, about 45 percent of which is contributed by snowmelt. The mean annual precipitation in the basin is about 620 mm, which is primarily concentrated in the upper and middle basin. The Kelan River system could be vulnerable to climate change because of substantial contribution from snowmelt runoff. The hydrological system could be altered significantly because of a warming of the climate. The impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle and events would pose an additional threat to the Altay region. The Kelan River, a typical snow-dominated watershed, has more area at higher elevations and accumulates snow during the winter. The peak flow occurs as a result of snow-melting during the late spring or early summer. Stream flow varies strongly throughout the year because of seasonal cycles of precipitation, snowpack, temperature, and groundwater. Changes in the temperature and precipitation affect the timing and volume of stream-flow. The stream-flow consists of contributions from meltwater of snow and ice and from runoff of rainfall. Therefore, it has low flow in winter, high flow during the spring and early summer as the snowpack melts, and less flows during the late summer. Because of the warming of the current climate change, hydrology processes of the Kelan River have undergone marked changes, as evidenced by the shift of the maximum flood peak discharge from May to June; the largest monthly runoffs also have an increment of about 15 percent related to before 1980; April-June runoff increased from the 60 percent of the annual runoff before 1980 to nearly 70 percent after 1990. The long-term trend shows temperature and precipitation increased mainly in the winter, but the rainfall declined in summer; hydrological process is manifested by the rising runoff in May and decreasing in June. Warming and the increase of winter and spring snowcover would lead to increased snowmelt, increasing the spring-flood hazards and the maximum flood discharge with disastrous consequences. The changed hydrological patterns caused by climate change have already impacted the urban water supply and agricultural and livestock production along the river.

Detecting treeline dynamics in response to climate warming using forest stand maps and Landsat data in a temperate forest

Background: Treeline dynamics have inevitable impacts on the forest treeline structure and composition. The present research sought to estimate treeline movement and structural shifts in response to recent warming in Cehennemdere, Turkey. After implementing an atmospheric correction, the geo-shifting of images was performed to match images together for a per pixel trend analysis. We developed a new approach based on the NDVI, LST(land surface temperature) data, air temperature data, and forest stand maps for a 43-year period. The forest treeline border was mapped on the forest stand maps for 1970, 1992, 2002, and 2013 to identify shifts in the treeline altitudes, and then profile statistics were calculated for each period. Twenty sample plots(10 × 10 pixels) were selected to estimatethe NDVI and LST shifts across the forest timberline using per-pixel trend analysis and non-parametric Spearman’s correlation analysis. In addition, the spatial and temporal shifts in treeline tree species were computed within the selected plots for four time periods on the forest stand maps to determine the pioneer tree species.Results: A statistically significant increasing trend in all climate variables was observed, with the highest slopein the monthly average mean July temperature(tau = 0.62, ρ < 0.00). The resultant forest stand maps showed a geographical expansion of the treeline in both the highest altitudes(22 m–45 m) and the lowest altitudes(20 m–105 m) from 1970 to 2013. The per pixel trend analysis indicated an increasing trend in the NDVI and LST values within the selected plots. Moreover, increases in the LST were highly correlated with increases in the NDVIbetween 1984 and 2017(r = 0.75, ρ < 0.05). Cedrus libani and Juniperus communis app. were two pioneer tree species that expanded and grew consistently on open lands, primarily on rocks and soil-covered areas, from 1970 to 2013.Conclusion: The present study il ustrated that forest treeline dynamics and treeline structural changes can be detected using two data sources. Additionally, the results will have a significant contribution to and implication for treeline movement studies and forest landscape change investigations attempting to project climate change impacts on tree species in response to climate warming. The results will assist forest managers in establishing some developmentaladaptation strategies for forest treeline ecotones.

Climate warming over 1961–2019 and impacts on permafrost zonation in Northeast China

In boreal forest ecosystems, permafrost and forest types are mutually interdependent;permafrost degradation impacts forest ecosystem structure and functions. The Xing’an permafrost in Northeast China is on the southern margin of the Eastern Asia latitudinal permafrost body. Under a warming climate, permafrost undergoes rapid and extensive degradation. In this study, the frost-number (Fn) model based on air temperatures and ground surface temperatures was used to predict the distribution of the Xing’an permafrost, and, temporal and spatial changes in air and ground-surface temperatures from 1961 to 2019 are analyzed. The results show that Northeast China has experienced a rapid and substantial climate warming over the past 60 years. The rises in mean annual air and mean annual ground-surface temperatures were higher in permafrost zones than those in the seasonal frost zone. The frost numbers of air and ground-surface temperatures were calculated for determining the southern limit of latitudinal permafrost and for permafrost zonation. The southern limits of discontinuous permafrost, sporadic permafrost, and latitudinal permafrost moved northward significantly. According to the air-temperature frost-number criteria for permafrost zoning, compared with that in the 1960s, the extent of Xing’an permafrost in Northeast China had decreased by 40.6% by the 2010s. With an average rate of increase in mean annual air temperatures at 0.03 ℃ a^(−1), the extent of permafrost in Northeast China will decrease to 26.42 × 10^(4) by 2020, 14.69 × 10^(4) by 2040 and to 11.24 × 10^(4) km^(2) by 2050. According to the ground-surface temperature frost-number criteria, the southern limit of latitudinal permafrost was at the 0.463. From the 1960s to the 2010s, the extent of latitudinal permafrost declined significantly. Due to the nature of the ecosystem-protected Xing’an-Baikal permafrost, management and protection (e.g., more prudent and effective forest fire management and proper logging of forests) of the Xing’an permafrost eco-environment should be strengthened.

A study on the possible impacts of climate warming on rice production in China

Based on climate change scenarios projected from GCMs (GFDL, UKMO and MPI), this study evaluates possible impacts of climate warming on rice production in China using numerical simulation experiments. A stochastic weather generator is used to make the projected climatic change scenarios suitable to the input of crop model, ORYZA1. The results show that the duration of rice growing season will be lengthened by 6-11 days and the accumulated temperature will increase by 200℃.d-330℃.d when CO2 concentration in the atmosphere doubles. The probability of cool injury in reproductive and grain filling period will decrease while that of heat stress will increase. Rice yield will decrease if cultivars and fanning practices are unchanged. If the dates of rice development stages can be maintained unchanged through cultivar adjustment although rice yield in most parts of the areas will decrease, the decrements will be much less than that when cultivars and farming practices are unchanged.

Influence of Climate Warming on the Agriculture in Shenbei New District of Shenyang

[Objective] The research aimed to study the influence of climate warming on the agriculture in Shenbei New District of Shenyang in recent 38 years.[Method] Based on the temperature data in Shenbei New District of Shenyang during 1971-2008,by using the conventional statistical method,the variation trends of temperature and active accumulated temperature in Shenbei New District under the climate warming environment were analyzed,and the influence of climate warming on the agriculture was discussed.[Result] The annual average temperature,annual average maximum temperature,annual averageminimum temperature and ≥ 0℃,≥ 10℃ active accumulated temperatures which were passed stably in Shenbei New District in recent 38 years all showed the obvious rising trend.The climate tendency rates were respectively 0.4,0.3,0.1℃/10 a and 79.1,76.7℃·d/10 a.They all showed the declining trend in the coldest December,January and the rising trend in other months.The rising range of maximum temperature was bigger than that ofminimum temperature,and the rising range in summer was bigger than that in winter.The analysis result was different from that of many scholars.When the temperatures rose,and the heat resources increased,the agricultural cropping index improved,and the cultivated boundary of mid-late maturity variety moved northward.The industrialized agriculture developed quickly.Meanwhile,the risks of drought and flood disasters increased,and the insect pest aggravated.[Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for improving the cognizance about the influence of climate warming on the agricultural production and strengthening the strain capacity of local agricultural production adapting the climate variation.

Discussion on possibilities of taking ground ice in permafrost as water sources on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during climate warming

Large amounts of ground ice are born with permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Degradation of permafrost resulted from the climate warming will inevitably lead to melting of ground ice.The water released from the melting ground ice enters hydrologic cycles at various levels,and changes regional hydrologic regimes to various degrees.Due to difficulties in monitoring the perma-frost-degradation-release-water process,direct and reliable evidence is few.The accumulative effect of releasing water,however,is remarkable in the macro-scale hydrologic process.On the basis of the monitoring results of water-levels changes in some lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and combined with the previous results of the hydrologic changing trends at the regional scale,the authors preliminarily discussed the possibilities of the degrading permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a potential water source during climate warming.

Effects of Climate Warming on Animal Husbandry in Chaoyang Region

[Objective] To study the effects of climate warming on animal husbandry in Chaoyang region and provide a scientific basis for government guidance on animal husbandry. [Method] According to the climatic data between 1952 and 2008 and animal husbandry data between 1978 and 2008 of Chaoyang region, changes in average annual temperature in winter, annual slaughter numbers of pig and sheep and total output value of animal husbandry were analyzed by least square method and Excel software. [ Result] In Chaoyang region, the average annual temperature in winter increased with years; the annual slaughter numbers of pig and sheep increased rapidly; and the total output value of animal husbandry increased largely. [ Conclusion] The climate warming maybe promotes the development of animal husbandry in Chaoyang region.

Digital Innovation Strategy for Travel Agents to Combat Climate Warming

Climate warming leads to great opportunities and difficulties for travel agencies.In order to promote the development of travel agencies in the new situation,this paper studies the digital innovation strategy of travel agencies to deal with climate warming.Through in-depth interviews with 13 travel agencies,the impact of climate warming on travel agencies was discussed from multiple perspectives.Investigate the digital innovation response strategies of this group under the influence of climate warming on tourism,analyze and try to give travel agencies’digital innovation strategies to respond to climate warming.In order to provide some help for the sustainable development of travel agencies.

High leaf area index expands the contrasting effect of climate warming on Western Siberia taiga forests activity before and after 2000

The taiga vegetation in Western Siberia has been seriously threatened by climate warming in recent decades.However,how vegetation in different growing states and climate conditions responds to climate changes differently is still unclear.Here we explore the vegetation activity trends in Western Siberia taiga forests using the annual rate of change in leaf area index(LAI)during 1982–2018 so as to answer two questions:(1)how did climate warming affect taiga vegetation activity in the recent last decades?(2)Did the growing state of taiga forest affect its response to climate warming?Our results revealed that climate warming promoted taiga vegetation activity in Western Siberia before 2000.However,continuous warming caused excessive evapotranspiration and led to decreased vegetation activity after 2000.Moreover,the intensity of vegetation growth response to warming was positively related to canopy height and LAI,indicating that both the positive and negative effects of warming were more significant in taiga forests in better growing state.Since these forests generally have higher productivity and play more important roles in ecosystem functioning(e.g.,carbon sink and biodiversity conservation),our results highlight their vulnerability to future climate change that need more research attention.

Climate warming is likely to weaken the performance of two-phase closed thermosyphon on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Over the years,numerous geotechnical approaches have been implemented to mitigate the adverse effects of climate warming on various infrastructures in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),such as the Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Railway,and achieved the expected engineering outcomes.However,little attention has been given to whether the performance of these geotechnical approaches has changed during the ongoing process of climate warming.To investigate the performance variation of one of these geotechnical approaches,which is two-phase closed thermosyphon(TPCT),during sustained climate warming,we conducted a statistical analysis of soil temperature monitoring data in 2003-2020 from eight regular embankments and six TPCT embankments in our permafrost monitoring network.The results indicate that TPCT undeniably has a cooling effect on the permafrost beneath embankments,even rapidly eliminated previously formed taliks beneath embankment.However,further analysis reveals that the performance of TPCT has been weakening during sustained climate warming,which has confirmed by the re-forming of the taliks beneath embankment where they had been previously eliminated.Based on the current understanding,we attributed the weakening of thermosyphon performance to a significant reduction in the air temperature freezing index caused by ongoing climate warming.Through this study,we aimed to draw attention to the evolving performance of geotechnical approaches in permafrost regions amid climate warming,prompting necessary engineering innovations to address this situation and ensure the sustainable development of the permafrost region on the QTP.

Climate warming is significantly influenced by rising summer maximum temperatures: insights from tree-ring evidence of the Western Tianshan Mountains, China

As one of the regions most affected by global cli-mate warming,the Tianshan mountains has experienced sev-eral ecological crises,including retreating glaciers and water deficits.Climate warming in these mountains is considered mainly to be caused by increases in minimum temperatures and winter temperatures,while the influence of maximum temperatures is unclear.In this study,a 300-year tree-ring chronology developed from the Western Tianshan Moun-tains was used to reconstruct the summer(June-August)maximum temperature(T_(max6-8))variations from 1718 to 2017.The reconstruction explained 53.1% of the variance in the observed T_(max6-8).Over the past 300 years,the T_(max6-8)reconstruction showed clear interannual and decadal vari-abilities.There was a significant warming trend(0.18°C/decade)after the 1950s,which was close to the increasing rates of the minimum and mean temperatures.The increase in maximum temperature was also present over the whole Tianshan mountains and its impact on climate warming has increased.The T_(max6-8) variations in the Western Tianshan mountains were influenced by frequent volcanic eruptions combined with the influence of solar activity and the sum-mer North Atlantic Oscillation.This study reveals that cli-mate warming is significantly influenced by the increase in maximum temperatures and clarifies possible driving mech-anisms of temperature variations in the Western Tianshan mountains which should aid climate predictions.

Climate warming suppresses abundant soil fungal taxa and reduces soil carbon efflux in a semi-arid grassland

Soil microorganisms critically affect the ecosystem carbon(C)balance and C-climate feedback by directly controlling organic C decomposition and indirectly regulating nutrient availability for plant C fixation.However,the effects of climate change drivers such as warming,precipitation change on soil microbial communities,and C dynamics remain poorly understood.Using a long-term field warming and precipitation manipulation in a semi-arid grassland on the Loess Plateau and a complementary incubation experiment,here we show that warming and rainfall reduction differentially affect the abundance and composition of bacteria and fungi,and soil C efflux.Warming significantly reduced the abundance of fungi but not bacteria,increasing the relative dominance of bacteria in the soil microbial community.In particular,warming shifted the community composition of abundant fungi in favor of oligotrophic Capnodiales and Hypocreales over potential saprotroph Archaeorhizomycetales.Also,precipitation reduction increased soil total microbial biomass but did not significantly affect the abundance or diversity of bacteria.Furthermore,the community composition of abundant,but not rare,soil fungi was significantly correlated with soil CO_(2) efflux.Our findings suggest that alterations in the fungal community composition,in response to changes in soil C and moisture,dominate the microbial responses to climate change and thus control soil C dynamics in semi-arid grasslands.

SOME ADVANCES IN CLIMATE WARMING IMPACT RESEARCH IN CHINA SINCE 1990

Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will strengthen the natural greenhouse effect,which could lead to global climate warming and more other changes.China is a largely agricultural country with a large size of population and the relative shortages of farming lands and water resources,thus increasing the importance of climate warming for national economy development.Therefore,Chinese government and scientists have paid great attention to the impact-assessment of climate warming on national economy in China,especially during the past 10 years.This presentation will briefly describe some major issues of climate warming impact research on national vegetation,agriculture,forest,water resources,energy use and regional sea level for China,etc. As a result,all climate change scenarios derived by GCMs suggest a substantial change in the characteristic natural vegetation types.It is also shown that comparing with the distribution simulated under the normal time period 1951—1980 as the present climate,by 2050 large changes in cropping systems would occur almost everywhere in China.Climate warming would lead to increase cropping diversification and multiplication.Unfortunately,the possible net balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration would be negative and it would lead to reduce the grain production in China significantly due to enhanced moisture stress in soil.The most evident influence of climate warming on water resources would happen in Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe Basin and the water supply-demand deficit would be substantially enhanced in this area.And also,a warmer climate for China will alter the energy requirement for domestic heating and cooling,that is, reduce energy use for heating in northern China and increase energy consumption for cooling in southern China.

Direct impacts of recent climate warming on insect populations

Effects of recent climate change have already been detected in many species,and,in particular,in insects.The present paper reviews the key impacts of global warming on insect development and dispersal.The effects of climate change appear to be much more complex than a simple linear response to an average increase in temperature.They can differ between seasons and bioclimatic regions.Earlier flight periods,enhanced winter survival and acceleration of development rates are the major insect responses.Differential response of insects and hosts to warming up might also lead to disruption of their phenological synchrony,but adaptive genetic processes are likely to quickly restore this synchrony.In a number of cases,warming results in removing or relocating the barriers that limit present species’ranges.It is also likely to facilitate the establishment and spread of invasive alien species.Finally,knowledge gaps are identified and future research interests are suggested.