Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of a new potato pest(Schrankia costaestrigalis) in China under climate change

Global food security is threatened by the impacts of the spread of crop pests and changes in the complex interactions between crops and pests under climate change.Schrankia costaestrigalis is a newly-reported potato pest in southern China.Early-warning monitoring of this insect pest could protect domestic agriculture as it has already caused regional yield reduction and/or quality decline in potato production.Our research aimed to confirm the potential geographical distributions(PGDs)of S.costaestrigalis in China under different climate scenarios using an optimal MaxEnt model,and to provide baseline data for preventing agricultural damage by S.costaestrigalis.Our findings indicated that the accuracy of the optimal MaxEnt model was better than the default-setting model,and the minimum temperature of the coldest month,precipitation of the driest month,precipitation of the coldest quarter,and the human influence index were the variables significantly affecting the PGDs of S.costaestrigalis.The highly-and moderately-suitable habitats of S.costaestrigalis were mainly located in eastern and southern China.The PGDs of S.costaestrigalis in China will decrease under climate change.The conversion of the highly-to moderately-suitable habitat will also be significant under climate change.The centroid of the suitable habitat area of S.costaestrigalis under the current climate showed a general tendency to move northeast and to the middle-high latitudes in the 2030s.The agricultural practice of plastic film mulching in potato fields will provide a favorable microclimate for S.costaestrigalis in the suitable areas.More attention should be paid to the early warning and monitoring of S.costaestrigalis in order to prevent its further spread in the main areas in China’s winter potato planting regions.

Monitoring the little fire ant,Wasmannia auropunctata(Roger 1863),in the early stage of its invasion in China:Predicting its geographical distribution pattern under climate change

Invasive alien ants(IAAs)are among the most aggressive,competitive,and widespread invasive alien species(IAS)worldwide.Wasmannia auropunctata,the greatest IAAs threat in the Pacific region and listed in“100 of the world’s worst IAS”,has established itself in many countries and on islands worldwide.Wild populations of W.auropunctata were recently reported in southeastern China,representing a tremendous potential threat to China’s agricultural,economic,environmental,public health,and social well-being.Estimating the potential geographical distribution(PGD)of W.auropunctata in China can illustrate areas that may potentially face invasion risk.Therefore,based on the global distribution records of W.auropunctata and bioclimatic variables,we predicted the geographical distribution pattern of W.auropunctata in China under the effects of climate change using an ensemble model(EM).Our findings showed that artificial neural network(ANN),flexible discriminant analysis(FDA),gradient boosting model(GBM),Random Forest(RF)were more accurate than categorical regression tree analysis(CTA),generalized linear model(GLM),maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)and surface distance envelope(SRE).The mean TSS values of ANN,FDA,GBM,and RF were 0.820,0.810,0.843,and 0.857,respectively,and the mean AUC values were 0.946,0.954,0.968,and 0.979,respectively.The mean TSS and AUC values of EM were 0.882 and 0.972,respectively,indicating that the prediction results with EM were more reliable than those with the single model.The PGD of W.auropunctata in China is mainly located in southern China under current and future climate change.Under climate change,the PGD of W.auropunctata in China will expand to higher-latitude areas.The annual temperature range(bio7)and mean temperature of the warmest quarter(bio10)were the most significant variables affecting the PGD of W.auropunctata in China.The PGD of W.auropunctata in China was mainly attributed to temperature variables,such as the annual temperature range(bio7)and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter(bio10).The populations of W.auropunctata in southern China have broad potential invasion areas.Developing strategies for the early warning,monitoring,prevention,and control of W.auropunctata in southern China requires more attention.

C_4 plant species and geographical distribution in relation to climate in the desert vegetation of China

Water use efficiency of Ca plants is higher than that of C3 plants, and CAM （Crassulaceae Acid Metabolism） plants have the highest water use efficiency. In the desert regions of China, CAM plants are scarce, and C4 plants, especiaUy C4 woody plants, have an important position and role in the desert ecosystem. There are 45 species of Ca woody plants in the desert regions of China, including semi-woody plants, accounting for 6% of the total desert plant species in China, and most of them are concentrated in the families of Chenopodiaceae and Polygonaceae, which are 19 species and 26 species, respectively. The number of C4 herbaceous plants is 107 species, including 48 monocot species and 59 dicot species. C4 woody plants mainly inhabit the northwestem arid desert regions of China west of the Helan Mountains. The drought-resistance and drought-tolerance of Ca herbaceous plants are worse than C4 woody plants, and C4 herbaceous plants mainly inhabit areas with shallow groundwater depth and better water conditions in the desert regions, and are widely distributed along the margins of oases. The abundance of C4 woody plants is closely correlated with drought, but the abundance of C4 herbaceous plants increases with wet conditions.

Machine learning ensemble model prediction of northward shift in potato cyst nematodes(Globodera rostochiensis and G.pallida)distribution under climate change conditions

Potato cyst nematodes(PCNs)are a significant threat to potato production,having caused substantial damage in many countries.Predicting the future distribution of PCN species is crucial to implementing effective biosecurity strategies,especially given the impact of climate change on pest species invasion and distribution.Machine learning(ML),specifically ensemble models,has emerged as a powerful tool in predicting species distributions due to its ability to learn and make predictions based on complex data sets.Thus,this research utilised advanced machine learning techniques to predict the distribution of PCN species under climate change conditions,providing the initial element for invasion risk assessment.We first used Global Climate Models to generate homogeneous climate predictors to mitigate the variation among predictors.Then,five machine learning models were employed to build two groups of ensembles,single-algorithm ensembles(ESA)and multi-algorithm ensembles(EMA),and compared their performances.In this research,the EMA did not always perform better than the ESA,and the ESA of Artificial Neural Network gave the highest performance while being cost-effective.Prediction results indicated that the distribution range of PCNs would shift northward with a decrease in tropical zones and an increase in northern latitudes.However,the total area of suitable regions will not change significantly,occupying 16-20%of the total land surface(18%under current conditions).This research alerts policymakers and practitioners to the risk of PCNs’incursion into new regions.Additionally,this ML process offers the capability to track changes in the distribution of various species and provides scientifically grounded evidence for formulating long-term biosecurity plans for their control.

Potential global distribution of the guava root-knot nematode Meloidogyne enterolobii under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling

In recent years,Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas.However,the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environmental variables for this nematode are unclear.Under the current climate scenario,we predicted the potential geographic distributions of M.enterolobii worldwide and in China using a Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model with the occurrence data of this species.Furthermore,the potential distributions of M.enterolobii were projected under three future climate scenarios(BCC-CSM2-MR,CanESM5 and CNRM-CM6-1)for the periods 2050s and 2090s.Changes in the potential distribution were also predicted under different climate conditions.The results showed that highly suitable regions for M.enterolobii were concentrated in Africa,South America,Asia,and North America between latitudes 30°S to 30°N.Bio16(precipitation of the wettest quarter),bio10(mean temperature of the warmest quarter),and bio11(mean temperature of the coldest quarter)were the variables contributing most in predicting potential distributions of M.enterolobii.In addition,the potential suitable areas for M.enterolobii will shift toward higher latitudes under future climate scenarios.This study provides a theoretical basis for controlling and managing this nematode.

The Influence of Climate Change and Variability on Spatio-Temporal Rainfall and Temperature Distribution in Zanzibar

Climate change has resulted in serious social-economic ramifications and extremely catastrophic weather events in the world, Tanzania and Zanzibar in particular, with adaptation being the only option to reduce impacts. The study focuses on the influence of climate change and variability on spatio-temporal rainfall and temperature variability and distribution in Zanzibar. The station observation datasets of rainfall, Tmax and Tmin acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX) projected datasets from the Regional climate model HIRHAM5 under driving model ICHEC-EC-EARH, for the three periods of 1991-2020 used as baseline (HS), 2021-2050 as near future (NF) and 2051-2080 far future (FF), under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5, were used. The long-term observed Tmax and Tmin were used to produce time series for observing the nature and trends, while the observed rainfall data was used for understanding wet and dry periods, trends and slope (at p ≤ 0.05) using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Moreover, the Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) under the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation techniques were used for mapping the three decades of 1991-2000 (hereafter D1), 2001-2010 (hereafter D2) and 2011-2020 (hereafter D3) to analyze periodical spatial rainfall distribution in Zanzibar. As for the projected datasets the Climate Data Operator Commands (CDO), python scripts and Grid analysis and Display System (GrADS) soft-wares were used to process and display the results of the projected datasets of rainfall, Tmax and Tmin for the HS, NF and FF, respectively. The results show that the observed Tmax increased by the rates of 0.035℃ yr-1 and 0.0169℃ yr-1, while the Tmin was increased by a rate of 0.064℃ yr-1 and 0.104℃ yr-1 for Unguja and Pemba, respectively. The temporal distribution of wetness and dryness indices showed a climate shift from near normal to moderate wet during 2005 at Zanzibar Airport, while normal to moderately dry conditions, were observed in Pemba at Matangatuani. The decadal rainfall variability and distributions revealed higher rainfall intensity with an increasing trend and good spatial distribution in D3 from March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The projected results for Tmax during MAM and OND depicted higher values ranging from 1.7℃ - 1.8℃ to 1.9℃ - 2.0℃ and 1.5℃ to 2.0℃ in FF compared to NF under both RCPs. Also, higher Tmin values of 1.12℃ - 1.16℃ was projected in FF for MAM and OND under both RCPs. Besides, the rainfall projection generally revealed increased rainfall intensity in the range of 0 - 25 mm for Pemba and declined rainfall in the range of 25 - 50 mm in Unguja under both RCPs in perspectives of both NF and FF. Conclusively the study has shown that the undergoing climate change has posed a significant impact on both rainfall and temperature spatial and temporal distributions in Zanzibar (Unguja and Pemba), with Unguja being projected to have higher rainfall deficits while increasing rainfall strengths in Pemba. Thus, the study calls for more studies and formulation of effective adaptation, strategies and resilience mechanisms to combat the projected climate change impacts especially in the agricultural sector, water and food security.

Impact of climate change on potential habitat distribution of Sciaenidae in the coastal waters of China

Climate change has affected and will continue to affect the spatial distribution patterns of marine organisms.To understand the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns and species richness of the Sciaenidae in China’s coastal waters,the maximum entropy model was used to combine six environmental factors and predict the potential distribution of 12 major species of Sciaenidae by 2050s under Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)2.6 and 8.5.The results showed that the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.917,indicating that the model predictions were accurate and reliable.The main driving factors affecting the potential distribution of these fishes were dissolved oxygen,salinity,and sea surface temperature(SST).There was an overall northward shift in the potential habitat areas of these fishes under the two climate scenarios.The total potential habitat areas of Larimichthys polyactis,Pennahia argentata,and Pennahia pawak decreased under both climate scenarios,while the total habitat area of Johnius belengerii,Pennahia anea,Miichthys miiuy,Collichthys lucidus,and Collichthys niveatus increased,suggesting that these might be loser and winner species,respectively.The expansion rate,contraction rate,degree of centroid change,and species richness in the potential habitats were generally more significant under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6.The mean shift rates of the potential distribution were 41.50 km/(10 a) and 29.20 km/(10 a) under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6,respectively.The changes in Sciaenidae species richness under climate change were bounded by the Changjiang River Estuary waters,with obvious north-south differences.Some waters with increased species richness may become refuges for Sciaenidae fishes under climate change.The richness and habitat area change rate of some aquatic germplasm resources will decrease,meanings that these reserves are more sensitive to climate change,and more attention should be paid to the potential challenges and opportunities for fishery managers.This study may provide a scientific basis for the management and conservation of Sciaenidae in China under climate change.

Response of Distribution Range Against Climate Change and Habitat Preference of Four National Protected Diploderma Species in Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the spatial distribution and habitat preference for rare and endangered species are essential for effective conservation practice.We examined the spatial distribution and habitat preference of four Diploderma species(Diploderma drukdaypo,D.laeviventre,D.batangense,and D.vela),which are endemic to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and are currently under state protection.We used the ensembles of small models(ESM)approach and predicted potential distribution ranges of the species in current and two future climate scenarios(SSP126 and SSP585).The degree of overlap between the predicted distribution ranges and existing natural reserves was further analyzed.Habitat preference was examined using a paired quadrat method.Our results predicted that D.drukdaypo has a current distribution range of 600 km^(2),which would decrease to 50 km^(2)and 55 km^(2)under the SSP126 and SSP585 respectively.For D.laeviventre,the current distribution range is 817 km^(2),with minimum changes in the two future climate scenarios(774 km^(2)and 902 km^(2)).For D.batangense,the current distribution range is 875 km^(2),which would expand to 1522 km^(2)and 3340 km^(2)in the two future climate scenarios.Similarly for D.vela,the current distribution range is 1369 km^(2),which would change to 1825 km^(2)and 2043 km^(2)respectively under the two future climate scenarios.The effect of protection of current nature reserves are likely low for those species;we found no overlap(D.drukdaypo,D.laeviventre)or little overlap(D.batangense 2.04%–3.56%,D.vela 15.52%–16.87%)between the currently designated protection area and distribution range under current and future climate scenarios.For habitat preference,stones appear to be the critical habitat element for those species although different species had different stone requirements.Taken together,we provided critical information on potential distribution ranges and habitat preference for four endangered Diploderma species,and confirmed the inadequacy of current nature reserves.The establishment of new or expansion of existing nature reserves is urgent for the conservation of those species.

Natural variations and geographical distributions of seed carotenoids and chlorophylls in 1167 Chinese soybean accessions

Understanding the composition and contents of carotenoids in various soybean seed accessions is important for their nutritional assessment.This study investigated the variability in the concentrations of carotenoids and chlorophylls and revealed their associations with other nutritional quality traits in a genetically diverse set of Chinese soybean accessions comprised of cultivars and landraces.Genotype,planting year,accession type,seed cotyledon color,and ecoregion of origin significantly influenced the accumulation of carotenoids and chlorophylls.The mean total carotenoid content was in the range of 8.15–14.72μg g–1 across the ecoregions.The total carotenoid content was 1.2-fold higher in the landraces than in the cultivars.Soybeans with green cotyledons had higher contents of carotenoids and chlorophylls than those with yellow cotyledons.Remarkably,lutein was the most abundant carotenoid in all the germplasms,ranging from 1.35–37.44μg g–1.Carotenoids and chlorophylls showed significant correlations with other quality traits,which will help to set breeding strategies for enhancing soybean carotenoids without affecting the other components.Collectively,our results demonstrate that carotenoids are adequately accumulated in soybean seeds,however,they are strongly influenced by genetic factors,accession type,and germplasm origin.We identified novel germplasms with the highest total carotenoid contents across the various ecoregions of China that could serve as the genetic materials for soybean carotenoid breeding programs,and thereby as the raw materials for food sectors,pharmaceuticals,and the cosmetic industry.

Geographical distribution of Batrachospermaceae genera in Asia and its environmental factors

Batrachospermaceae is an important group of freshwater red algae.Available data of the latitude,longitude,and environmental factors on Batrachospermaceae distribution in Asia were analyzed to understand the geographical distribution of Batrachospermaceae genera in Asia.Statistical analyses,including one-way ANOVA,correlation analysis,stepwise regression analysis,principal component analysis,and linear discriminant analysis were conducted to characterize variation in geographical distribution and growth environment.Results reveal high variation in geographical distribution and growth environment among different Batrachospermaceae genera in Asia.Specifically,correlations between latitude and all environmental factors exclusive of altitude are significant,and longitude is significantly correlated with all environmental factors except for average relative humidity.The geographical distribution and growth environment of different Batrachospermaceae genera significantly differed.Altitude,maximum temperature,average temperature,minimum temperature,average relative humidity,average wind speed,maximum wind speed,and atmospheric pressure all contributed to explaining differences in the geographical distribution of Batrachospermaceae genera.Combining the results of correlation analysis,stepwise regression analysis,and principal component analysis,all environmental factors contributed to the different geographical distribution of Batrachospermum,Paludicola,Sheathia,Sirodotia,and Remainder(the rest),all environmental factors but atmospheric pressure contributed to the different geographical distribution of Kumanoa,and all environmental factors but average wind speed and maximum wind speed contributed to the different geographical distribution of Virescentia.However,the correlation between these significantly related environmental factors and taxa is not necessarily causative,and many other environmental factors,such as temperature,pH,conductivity,shading,current velocity,dissolved oxygen,hardness,substrata types,and nutrients etc.,are likely to have an important impact on the geographical distribution of taxa,which is an important topic for future research.

Habitat Suitability and Distribution Pattern Response to Global Climate Change in a Widespread Species,the Asiatic Toad(Bufo gargarizans)

The distribution and diversity of the species are closely related to the global climate.As the most widely distributed species of Bufonidae in China,the study of the distribution pattern and habitat suitability of the Asiatic toad under climate change can help us understand the reply pattern of Bufonidae habitat to climate change.Here,combined with the Maxent model and GIS technology,the effects of climate change on the distribution pattern and habitat suitability of the Asiatic toad were comprehensively analyzed.The results show that the rainfall during the wettest season(Bio16)and the mean temperature of the driest season(Bio9)have a considerable impact on the distribution of the Asiatic toad.In the next 30 to 50 years,across the overall spacial scale of the Chinese mainland,the habitat of the Asiatic toad will be primarily in the eastern part of China and less in south part,while its distribution area will expand to the midwest and northwest parts of China.Overall,the area in which it can be distributed will be reduced and suitable habitat will shift to some regions of higher latitude and elevation.In a word,we systematically analyzed the changes of the distribution pattern and habitat suitability of the Asiatic toad with climate change,and we aim to provide data on how climatic variation may impact amphibians.

Projecting the potential distribution and analyzing the bioclimatic factors of four Rhododendron subsect.Tsutsusi species under climate warming

Tsutsusi is one of the eight subgenera of the Rhododendron genus.Four Tsutsusi species,R.indicum,R.simisii,R.oldhamii,and R.schlippenbachii,have high ornamental and medicinal values,resulting in an increasing market demand.These species thrive in cool and humid environments and are widely distributed in Europe and Asia.Whether global climate warming will affect the distribution of these valuable resources remains unclear.Thus,this study analyzed the climatic suitability of these species for the first time on the basis of 1552 geographical distribution points and 19 bioclimatic factors using the maximum entropy model.The results show that a suitable distribution area for all four species would decrease under climate warming.The main bioclimatic factors affecting their distribution are the mean temperature of the coldest quarter for R.indicum,the mean diurnal range for R.simisii,and precipitation of the warmest quarter for R.oldhamii and R.schlippenbachii.In addition,the contribution of the temperature-related bioclimatic factors to the distribution of R.indicum and R.simisii is higher than that of the associated precipitation-related climatic factors;in contrast,the contribution of precipitation-related bioclimatic factors to the distribution of R.oldhamii and R.schlippenbachii is higher than that of the temperature-related climatic factors.These results provide references for the introduction,conservation,sustainable development,and utilization of these four species in the future,and may also provide information with regards to other Rhododendron species.

Climate change impacts the distribution of Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis(Fagaceae),a keystone lineage in East Asian evergreen broadleaved forests

East Asian evergreen broadleaved forests(EBFLs) harbor high species richness,but these ecosystems are severely impacted by global climate change and deforestation.Conserving and managing EBLFs requires understanding dominant tree distribution dynamics.In this study,we used 29 species in Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis-a keystone lineage in East Asian EBLFs-as proxies to predict EBLF distribution dynamics using species distribution models(SDMs).We examined climatic niche overlap,similarity,and equivalency among seven biogeographical regions’ species using’ecospat’.We also estimated the effectiveness of protected areas in the predicted range to elucidate priority conservation regions.Our results showed that the climatic niches of most geographical groups differ.The western species under the Indian summer monsoon regime were mainly impacted by temperature factors,whereas precipitation impacted the eastern species under the East Asian summer monsoon regime.Our simulation predicted a northward range expansion of section Cyclobalanopsis between 2081 and 2100,except for the ranges of the three Himalayan species analyzed,which might shrink significantly.The greatest shift of highly suitable areas was predicted for the species in the South Pacific,with a centroid shift of over 300 km.Remarkably,only 7.56% of suitable habitat is currently inside protected areas,and the percentage is predicted to continue declining in the future.To better conserve Asian EBLFs,establishing nature reserves in their northern distribution ranges,and transplanting the populations with predicted decreasing numbers and degraded habitats to their future highly suitable areas,should be high-priority objectives.

Endemic medicinal plant distribution correlated with stable climate,precipitation,and cultural diversity

Medicinal plants provide crucial ecosystem services,especially in developing countries such as China,which harbors diverse endemic medicinal plant species with substantial cultural and economic value.Accordingly,understanding the patterns and drivers of medicinal plant distribution is critical.However,few studies have investigated the patterns and drivers of endemic medicinal plants distribution in China.Here,we linked endemic medicinal plants distribution with possible explanatory variables,i.e.,paleoclimate change,contemporary climate,altitudinal range and ethnic minority human population size at the prefecture city level in China.Our results show that endemic medicinal plants are concentrated in southern China,especially in southwestern China.Notably,both endemic medicinal plant species richness and the ratio of endemic medicinal plant species richness are negatively associated with glacialinterglacial anomaly in temperature,and positively associated with contemporary precipitation and altitudinal range.In addition,we found that endemic medicinal plant species richness is positively associated with ethnic minority population sizes as well as its ratio to the overall population size.These findings suggest that the distribution of endemic medicinal plants is determined by multiple drivers.Furthermore,our findings stress that dramatic future climate changes and massive anthropogenic activities in southern China pose great challenges to the conservation of China's endemic medicinal plants.

Projected impacts of climate change on the habitat of Xerophyta species in Africa

Climate change poses a serious long-term threat to biodiversity.To effectively reduce biodiversity loss,conservationists need to have a thorough understanding of the preferred habitats of species and the variables that affect their distribution.Therefore,predicting the impact of climate change on speciesappropriate habitats may help mitigate the potential threats to biodiversity distribution.Xerophyta,a monocotyledonous genus of the family Velloziaceae is native to mainland Africa,Madagascar,and the Arabian Peninsula.The key drivers of Xerophyta habitat distribution and preference are unknown.Using 308 species occurrence data and eight environmental variables,the MaxEnt model was used to determine the potential distribution of six Xerophyta species in Africa under past,current and future climate change scenarios.The results showed that the models had a good predictive ability(Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistics values for all SDMs were more than 0.902),indicating high accuracy in forecasting the potential geographic distribution of Xerophyta species.The main bioclimatic variables that impacted potential distributions of most Xerophyta species were mean temperature of the driest quarter(Bio9)and precipitation of the warmest quarter(Bio18).According to our models,tropical Africa has zones of moderate and high suitability for Xerophyta taxa,which is consistent with the majority of documented species localities.The habitat suitability of the existing range of the Xerophyta species varied based on the climate scenario,with most species experiencing a range loss greater than the range gain regardless of the climate scenario.The projected spatiotemporal patterns of Xerophyta species help guide recommendations for conservation efforts.

Climate-change habitat shifts for the vulnerable endemic oak species(Quercus arkansana Sarg.)

Quercus arkansana(Arkansas oak)is at risk of becoming endangered,as the total known population size is represented by a few isolated populations.The potential impact of climate change on this species in the near future is high,yet knowledge of its predicted effects is limited.Our study utilized the biomod2 R package to develop habi-tat suitability ensemble models based on bioclimatic and topographic environmental variables and the known loca-tions of current distribution of Q.arkansana.We predicted suitable habitats across three climate change scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)for 2050,2070,and 2090.Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for Q.arkansana is approximately 127,881 km^(2) across seven states(Texas,Arkansas,Alabama,Louisiana,Mississippi,Georgia,and Florida);approximately 9.5%is encompassed within state and federally managed protected areas.Our models predict that all current suitable habitats will disap-pear by 2050 due to climate change,resulting in a northward shift into new regions such as Tennessee and Kentucky.The large extent of suitable habitat outside protected areas sug-gests that a species-specific action plan incorporating pro-tected areas and other areas may be crucial for its conserva-tion.Moreover,protection of Q.arkansana habitat against climate change may require locally and regionally focused conservation policies,adaptive management strategies,and educational outreach among local people.

Potentially Suitable Area and Change Trends of Tulipa iliensis under Climate Change

Tulipa iliensis,as a wild plant resource,possesses high ornamental value and can provide abundant parental materials for tulip breeding.The objective of this research was to forecast the worldwide geographical spread of Tulipa iliensis by considering bioclimatic,soil,and topographic variables,the findings of this research can act as a benchmark for the conservation,management,and utilization of Tulipa iliensis as a wild plant resource.Research results indicate that all 12 models have an area under curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)values greater than 0.968 for the paleoclimatic,current,and future climate scenarios,this suggests an exceptionally high level of predictive accuracy for the models.The distribution of Tulipa iliensis is influenced by several key factors.These factors include the mean temperature of the driest quarter(Bio9),calcium carbonate content(T_CACO3),slope,precipitation of the driest month(Bio14),Basic saturation(T_BS),and precipitation of the coldest quarter(Bio19).During the three paleoclimate climate scenarios,the appropriate habitats for Tulipa iliensis showed a pattern of expansion-contraction expansion.Furthermore,the total suitable area accounted for 13.38%,12.28%,and 13.28%of the mainland area,respectively.According to the current climate scenario,the High-suitability area covers 61.78472×10^(4)km^(2),which accounts for 6.57%of the total suitable area,The Midsuitability area covers 190.0938×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for 20.2%of the total suitable area,this represents a decrease of 63.53%~67.13%compared to the suitable area of Tulipa iliensis under the paleoclimate scenario.Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)scenarios,in 2050 and 2090,Tulipa iliensis is projected to experience a decrease in the High,Mid,and Low-suitability areas under the SSP126 climate scenario by 7.10%~12.96%,2.96%~4.27%and 4.80%~7.96%,respectively.According to the SSP245 scenario,the high suitability area experienced a slight expansion of 2.26%in 2050,but a reduction of 6.32%in 2090.In the SSP370 scenario,the High-suitability areas had a larger reduction rate of 11.24%in 2050,while the Mid-suitability and Low-suitability areas had smaller expansion rates of 0.36%and 4.86%,respectively.In 2090,the High-suitability area decreased by 4.84%,while the Mid and Low-suitability areas experienced significant expansions of 15.73%and 45.89%,respectively.According to the SSP585 scenario,in the future,the High,Mid,and Low-suitability areas are projected to increase by 5.09%~7.21%,7.57%~17.66%,and 12.30%~48.98%,respectively.The research offers enhanced theoretical direction for preserving Tulipa iliensis’genetic variety amidst evolving climatic scenarios.

The Role of Certificates and Labels for Cocoa in the Face of Climate Change: A Scientific Review

Climate change threatens cocoa quality, raising concerns regarding sustainable premium cocoa production. Evaluating the effectiveness of certification standards is imperative to address this concern effectively. A multi-stage method was employed for a systematic review of 39 peer-reviewed articles to highlight the impacts of climate change on the biophysical environment of cocoa and its implications for adapting Geographical Indications (GIs). Additionally, a comprehensive review was conducted on climate-relevant standards of certificates in Ecuador, Indonesia, and Ghana. The findings of this study provide practical insights into possible difficulties that cocoa-producing countries may encounter in maintaining the distinctive flavours and quality trademarks of cocoa in the face of changing climate. Moreover, the findings emphasize the need for producer countries to prioritize viable adaptation and product differentiation strategies that meet sustainable marketing standards to protect GIs or place-based intellectual property. Furthermore, the findings indicate certificates require effective multi-level climate change management and environmental-social-governance principles that promote scientifically proven mitigation strategies, such as increasing soil organic carbon, zero deforestation, and reducing emissions while striving to leverage local adaptation policies to reduce location-specific vulnerability. Finally, certificates can accelerate the expansion, intensification, and redistribution of sustainable production for gains that outweigh the inconveniences caused by climate change.

Prediction of the global potential geographical distribution of Hylurgus ligniperda using a maximum entropy model

Background: Hylurgus ligniperda(Fabricius) is native to Europe but has established populations in many countries and regions. H. ligniperda mainly infests Pinus species, and can cause severe weakness and even death of the host through its boring activity;it can also be a vector of various pathogenic fungi. This study was conducted to investigate the environmental variables limiting the distribution of H. ligniperda and the change trend of its suitable areas under climate change.Results: We used a maximum entropy model to predict the potential geographical distribution of H. ligniperda on a global scale under near current and future climatic scenarios using its occurrence data and environmental variables. The result shows that the areas surrounding the Mediterranean region, the eastern coastal areas of Asia, and the southeastern part of Oceania are highly suitable for H. ligniperda. The environmental variables with the greatest effect on the distribution of H. ligniperda were determined using the jackknife method and Pearson’s correlation analysis and included the monthly average maximum temperature in April, precipitation of driest quarter, the monthly average minimum temperature in December, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter and mean diurnal range.Conclusions: Excessive precipitation in winter and low temperatures in spring had a great effect on the distribution of H. ligniperda. The potential geographical distribution of H. ligniperda was predicted to change under future climatic conditions compared with near current climate conditions. Highly suitable areas, moderately suitable areas and low suitable areas were predicted to increase by 59.99%, 44.43% and 22.92%, respectively, under the2081–2100 ssp245 scenario.

Modelling the variation of demersal fi sh distribution in Yellow Sea under climate change

Climate change can aff ect fi sh individuals or schools,and consequently the fi sheries.Studying future changes of fi sh distribution and abundance helps the scientifi c management of fi sheries.The dynamic bioclimate envelope model(DBEM)was used to identify the“environmental preference profi les”of the studied species based on outputs from three Earth system models(ESMs).Changes in ocean conditions in climate change scenarios could be transformed by the model into those in relative abundance and distribution of species.Therefore,the distributional response of 17 demersal fi shes to climate change in the Yellow Sea could be projected from 1970 to 2060.Indices of latitudinal centroid(LC)and mean temperature of relative abundance(MTRA)were used to represent the results conducted by model.Results present that 17 demersal fi sh species in the Yellow Sea show a trend of anti-poleward shift under both low-emission scenario(RCP 2.6)and high-emission scenario(RCP 8.5)from 1970 to 2060,with the projected average LC in three ESMs shifting at a rate of-1.17±4.55 and-2.76±3.82 km/decade,respectively,which is contrary to the previous projecting studies of fi shes suggesting that fi shes tend to move toward higher latitudes under increased temperature scenarios.The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass could be the major driver resulting in the shift,which shows a potential signifi cance to fi shery resources management and marine conservation,and provides a new perspective in fi sh migration under climate change.