Will Coal Price Fluctuations Affect Renewable Energy Substitution and Carbon Emission? A Computable General Equilibrium-Based Study of China

Changes in the energy price system will determine the direction of evolution of the energy industry structure.As a country where coal is the dominant energy source,what is the effect of coal price fluctuations on China’s industry development costs and energy consumption structure?To investigate this problem,this paper utilized an economy–energy–environment computable general equilibrium model.In this study,four aspects were analyzed:Energy supply side,proportion of renewable energy consumption,macroeconomy,and changes in CO_(2) emissions.The results of this study show that an increase of 10%–20%in coal prices contributes to a shift into using renewable energy,which leads to energy saving and emission reduction.Renewable energy and clean energy rose by 0.57%–4.47%in the energy structure,but this has a certain negative impact on the macroeconomy.The gross domestic product(GDP)fell by 0.07%–0.18%.As a result,the decline in coal prices became an obstacle to renewable energy substitution and energy conservation.In addition,we put forward policy suggestions according to the results in energy,economic,and environmental effects.

A study of mining fatalities and coal price variation

It has long been postulated that a relationship exists between commodity price cycles and fatalities in the mining industry.Previous studies have found only weak correlations in this area.This study analyses the fatalities recorded in coal mines over the period 1985-2016 in the State of Queensland as a function of thermal coal price variation.The study finds that the relationship between fatalities and coal prices is not linear.One to two fatalities occur in most years independent of the thermal coal price.When the price of coal falls below AUD 55/tonne(non-inflation adjusted),the likelihood of an incident involving multiple fatalities increases.The probability can be estimated at 2 in 18 events(equivalent to 11%).This paper postulates that in difficult economic times,mining companies react by downsizing direct employees.If not carefully managed,this can result in loss of knowledge around safety systems,and reduced effectiveness of safety supervision.Because of labour cost advantages,some jobs previously undertaken by direct employees will be replaced by contractors.Increased contractor numbers contribute to increased risk of fatalities occurring,as contractors are over-represented in accident categories involving vehicle accidents,tire handling and crushing incidents.Mine inspectorates,mining,and mining contractor companies need to be especially vigilant to enforce health and safety management systems during periods of low coal prices.

Analysis on the Mutation and Time-Varying Characteristics of Coal Price System Evolution from the Perspective of Finance

Coal is essential to ensure China’s energy security.The sudden or gradual change of coal price reflects the degree of disequilibrium or expected disequilibrium of coal supply and demand,which will not be conducive to energy security.Therefore,it is important to analyze the change points of coal price and explore the reason of the price fluctuation.This paper analyses the coal price from January2008 to June 2019 as the perspective of the financial market.Firstly,the PPM-DBSCAN model is used to identify the mutation point of coal price fluctuation.Secondly,path analysis is used to extract the core driving factors that affect coal price.Thirdly,the authors construct a time-varying and time-lag effect analysis model for structural changes of coal price based on the TVP-VAR model.The results show that there are 11 mutation points of coal price fluctuation.Financial market factors,coal supply and demand and alternative factors are the reasons of coal price mutation.The authors find that the imbalance of coal supply and demand in traditional view cannot fully explain the fluctuation of coal price.The impact of the financial market and non-thermal power generation have more influence on the coal price.

2024年我国无烟煤市场发展与展望

通过对宏观政策以及产业政策动态等多维度进行剖析,对无烟煤下游行业的消费现状和趋势进行详细分析和预测。介绍了我国无烟煤资源分布、生产和进口现状,对我国无烟煤生产和进口趋势进行了预测。综合分析供需、成本、政策等影响无烟煤价格的因素,特别是需求和供应关系,对2024年无烟煤价格走势进行了定性分析。整体认为,2024年,我国无烟煤将处于供需紧平衡状态,但较2023年略有宽松;价格中枢有望小幅下移,但仍将处于相对较高的位置。

中国煤炭价格与碳排放权交易价格的传导路径研究

碳市场作为新兴市场易受能源价格因素干扰,在“双碳”目标下研究煤炭价格与碳排放权交易价格(以下简称为碳价)的传导路径,有利于碳市场的健康运行并助力其发挥减排作用。在梳理煤炭价格与碳价传导机理的基础上,利用DCC-GARCH模型揭示煤炭指数与碳价的动态关系,并运用VAR模型实证检验煤炭价格与碳价的传导路径及能源消费结构、能源效率与动态相关系数的因果关系。实证结果表明:煤炭价格与碳价存在显著动态相关性,并呈现复杂性和多变性;碳市场尚未充分发挥其创新激励效应,相较于能源利用效率,煤炭价格与碳价通过能源消费结构路径实现的传导更加显著;能源消费结构调整是动态相关系数变化的格兰杰原因,而能源利用效率改变则不是。

RESEARCH ON THE QUALITY PRICE RATIO OF COKING COAL

If assortment priee parity of Clase coking coal and its qtalty price danrcnee is nonreasonable, it deren’t gulde in Anprotrig tbe quallry metaliurgical coking coal and may be influence theeconomic benefit of metallurgical enterprises. This paper propose the principles and mathematicmodel for determination aseortment party of clean cokingcoal and its quality difference of ash content in clean coking coal in order to urge wasbenes into producing superior clean coking cleal whichis under condition of consideration both interest waskeries and interest metallurgicai industry. It canbe used as a method in theory to make price strategies under condition of socialism maket economicfor washeries of clean coking

基于“煤电矛盾”问题的煤炭中长期合同辩证研究

煤炭中长期合同是“煤电矛盾”中的功能性问题,虽然目前政府力推签订煤炭中长期合同,但针对煤炭契约仍存在诸多认知不足的问题。分析了煤炭中长期合同的优、缺点,梳理煤电定价模式与煤电交易契约的关系,讨论煤炭契约定价方法与价格波动风险对煤电交易有效性的影响。研究发现,“市场煤、计划电”的定价模式会在一定程度上激化“煤电矛盾”,且该模式在短期内无法改变;煤炭中长期合同是现阶段有效的治理工具,但仍存在机会主义行为与成本疏导问题;目前的煤炭中长期合同应辅以合理的弹性定价法,并利用煤炭差价合约降低价格风险。在此基础上,提出了针对性的政策建议。

How to Realize Power Price Reduction in China?

In order to make power price truly reflect the cost of electric power and a reasonable profit without making the price unaffordable to the public, the government would have to adopt measures including tax reduction, surcharge reduction, debt relief and coal price reduction.

中国煤炭进口的问题及优化建议

中国煤炭资源丰富,分布在各省但极不均衡,呈现产销逆向分布的态势。虽然中国是世界第一大煤炭生产国,但由于经济高速发展,煤炭需求旺盛等原因仍需大量进口煤炭,成为世界第一大煤炭进口国。煤炭进口能保障国内需求,缓解西多东少、北富南贫的问题,但也存在对外依存度高、煤价易受多方因素影响等问题。因此,本文通过分析中国煤炭的进口现状,探究中国煤炭进口出现的问题,再提出相应的煤炭进口优化建议。

Leading Indicators of Heating Coal Pricing in Turkey: A Coal Pricing Model (2003-2009)

In this study, a coal pricing model for Turkey is developed employing Granger causality and cointegration analysis by using monthly data between January 2003 and April 2009. Empirical results based on Granger causality tests indicate that foreign coal futures prices and domestic consumer price index for energy sector can be used as the leading indica- tors for domestic coal prices for Turkey. An error correction model for Turkish coal pricing is specified by taking into account the results of Granger causality. The forecast of the coal prices based on error correction model is giving very successful results. It is observed that the coal prices and forecasted coal prices values are almost moving together or very close to each other.

分时电价下矿井多级接力式排水系统的优化策略

煤矿井下排水系统的工作效率直接影响到煤矿的生产安全和经济效益。现有矿井多级接力式排水系统对于电费波峰波谷特性和《煤矿防治水细则》要求的排水系统安全约束考虑不全面,难以实现整体系统的一体化安全经济运行。针对该问题,基于避峰就谷策略和动态规划方法,提出分时电价下矿井多级接力式排水系统的优化策略。通过考虑煤矿排水系统的多级串联结构、涌水量和水泵的排水能力,建立了煤矿多级接力式排水系统的数学模型。基于避峰就谷策略,以电费成本最低为目标函数,以水仓水位、水泵排水能力、煤矿安全要求等为约束条件,构建基于分时电价的多级接力式排水系统优化问题,并给出了基于动态规划方法的求解算法。以某矿井4级排水系统为例进行仿真分析,结果表明,该策略可有效控制井下水位,保证水位处于合理高度:当电价较高时,水泵开启的数量很少或为零,水仓处于高水位状态;当电价较低时,水泵开启的数量较多,水仓处于低水位状态。该策略能够在提升经济效益的同时,保障煤矿的生产效率和生产安全。

碳排放、煤炭消费与经济发展的脱钩效应分析

碳排放脱钩和煤炭消费脱钩对实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有重要意义。运用Tapio脱钩弹性方法,研究了我国各省区市碳排放、煤炭消费与经济发展的脱钩情况,然后运用面板回归模型,研究了脱钩效应的演变及区域差异。结果发现:我国碳排放脱钩和煤炭消费脱钩关联性很高,但煤炭消费绝对脱钩的年份和地区均略多于碳排放绝对脱钩;煤炭消费强度、煤炭价格涨幅和工业增加值占比对碳排放脱钩和煤炭消费脱钩的作用均比较显著,GDP对于煤炭消费脱钩具有显著的影响,但对碳排放脱钩的影响并不明显。建议在优化能源结构和推进经济转型的同时,也要保障煤炭供应,避免煤价过快上涨。

大物流背景下铁路非煤运输定价管理机制优化研究

在当前发展现代化大物流的背景下,铁路运输企业面临深化改革的市场环境和拓展运输市场、升级转型的经营使命。基于国家能源集团发展形势,分析大物流背景下推进铁路非煤运输的必要性,梳理铁路非煤运输及定价管理现状,指出当前非煤运输定价在管理体系、管理机制、管理模式方面存在的问题。结合国家能源集团生产经营实际,从构建分级负责的非煤运输定价管理体系、建立分部授权的浮动定价管理机制、发展区分客户性质的定价管理模式等方面提出针对性改进思路,从价格管理的角度出发,为提高国家能源集团铁路非煤货物运输效率、服务水平、收入收益提供参考。

考虑电价碳价不确定性的燃煤发电基准电价优化模型

碳排放权交易市场(以下简称“碳市场”)的推行将增加燃煤发电企业的碳排放成本,而现有燃煤发电基准电价难以覆盖逐年增加的燃煤发电成本。在此背景下,提出考虑电价、碳排放权价格(以下简称“碳价”)不确定性的燃煤发电基准电价双层优化模型。上层以电网公司为主体,构建基于CVaR(条件风险价值)的燃煤发电基准电价多目标优化模型;下层以燃煤发电企业为主体,构建考虑碳价的燃煤发电企业电力市场申报模型。采用分层序列法将多目标双层优化模型转化为单目标双层优化模型进行求解。算例分析结果表明,碳价上涨及其波动性加剧都会导致燃煤发电企业发电意愿下降,需相应地提升基准电价,而基准电价的最优值与碳价近似成线性关系。

基于集成模型的煤炭价格多步预测研究

煤炭价格的准确预测对化解能源价格风险有着重要意义,针对煤炭价格预测的问题,开展了基于集成模型的煤炭价格多步预测研究。本研究分析了影响煤炭价格的主控因素,并建立了数据集;将粒子群优化算法(Particle swarm optimization,PSO)和长短期记忆模型(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)有效集成,建立了一种基于PSO-LSTM的多参量多步预测模型。利用多参量多步预测模型调用数据集进行了曹妃甸港煤炭价格预测,结果表明:基于PSO-LSTM的多参量多步预测模型预测效果优于基于BP、LSTM的预测模型;其预测价格与实际价格的MAPE、R2值分别为0.025、0.908,能够为煤炭市场的科学管控提供帮助。

发挥煤炭中长期合同制度优势保障电煤安全稳定供应

推进煤炭中长期合同签订与履约是确保电煤安全稳定供应和经济平稳运行的重要举措。本文系统地阐明了煤炭中长期合同具有规避价格波动、稳定用户、稳定企业预期、稳定运力、加强企业信用建设等意义,分析了当前在中长期合同签订和履约中面临煤炭质量缺乏保障、地方保护主义干扰、企业合同履约信用意识淡漠,核查履约存在一定困难等问题,并对问题的存在进行了原因分析。为此,提出以“四个推动”,即推动加快中小型煤炭企业兼并重组、推动构建全国统一煤炭交易平台、持续推动煤炭中长期合同签订履约工作、推动建立煤炭中长期合同履约监管机制这些举措加以解决。

我国焦煤价格与库存的影响关系研究

焦煤是我国重要的基础能源,合理的库存能保障稳定的供应。根据库存周期的4个阶段,运用HP滤波法将样本进行阶段划分,并对各子样本的价格与库存进行因果关系检验,发现焦化厂、钢厂和港口的焦煤总库存与焦煤价格的规律性最显著。在此基础上,运用脉冲响应函数分析了总库存与价格的影响机制,发现在被动去库存和主动补库存阶段,价格引起库存变化:在被动去库存阶段,二者呈负相关关系,焦煤价格的上涨会引起库存下降;在主动补库存阶段,二者呈正相关关系,焦煤价格的上涨会造成库存上升。但在被动补库存阶段和主动去库存阶段,库存引起价格变化:被动补库存阶段,二者呈负相关关系,主动去库存阶段二者呈正相关关系。最后对相关政府部门和企业提出完善库存数据,应利用库存和价格规律引导焦煤市场健康发展的建议。

“双碳”目标下某热电联产项目上游市场影响分析

“双碳”目标下,热电联产由于具有一定的多能互补特性,成为未来煤电机组的优化转型方向。煤电机组的上游市场煤炭供应,将通过煤电价格传导机制影响热电联产项目的长期运营效益,最终对热电联产项目的建设和投资产生长远的影响。结合电力体制改革政策要求,建立统一开放、竞争有序的电力市场体系是未来电力改革发展的趋势,也是服务实现“双碳”目标、构建新型电力系统的重要措施。基于对某热电联产项目的上游市场(煤炭市场和煤电价格传导机制)进行梳理分析及研判,并在此基础上分析项目长期运行的经济性,最终总结该热电联产项目面对上游市场的波动有着较好的经济效益。

瘦煤小宋在宣钢配煤降本生产实践中的应用

随着河钢宣钢的转型升级,焦化工序的冶金焦炭由高炉自用改为对外销售,为积极应对严峻的市场挑战,实现焦炭销售效益最大化,公司上下解放思想,转变观念,在保证焦炭质量满足销售要求的前提下,以效益为中心,积极引进瘦煤小宋新资源,充分发挥瘦煤小宋性价比优势,利用试验焦炉优化资源结构,持续开展低配煤成本配煤研究,成功实施22%的瘦煤降本结构,为实现张宣科技创效奠定坚实的基础。