Data Driven Uncertainty Evaluation for Complex Engineered System Design

Complex engineered systems are often difficult to analyze and design due to the tangled interdependencies among their subsystems and components. Conventional design methods often need exact modeling or accurate structure decomposition, which limits their practical application. The rapid expansion of data makes utilizing data to guide and improve system design indispensable in practical engineering. In this paper, a data driven uncertainty evaluation approach is proposed to support the design of complex engineered systems. The core of the approach is a data-mining based uncertainty evaluation method that predicts the uncertainty level of a specific system design by means of analyzing association relations along different system attributes and synthesizing the information entropy of the covered attribute areas, and a quantitative measure of system uncertainty can be obtained accordingly. Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to get the uncertainty extrema, and the possible data distributions under different situations is discussed in detail The uncertainty values can be normalized using the simulation results and the values can be used to evaluate different system designs. A prototype system is established, and two case studies have been carded out. The case of an inverted pendulum system validates the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the case of an oil sump design shows the practicability when two or more design plans need to be compared. This research can be used to evaluate the uncertainty of complex engineered systems completely relying on data, and is ideally suited for plan selection and performance analysis in system design.

Handling Label Noise in Air Traffic Complexity Evaluation Based on Confident Learning and XGBoost

Air traffic complexity is a critical indicator for air traffic operation,and plays an important role in air traffic management(ATM),such as airspace reconfiguration,air traffic flow management and allocation of air traffic controllers(ATCos).Recently,many machine learning techniques have been used to evaluate air traffic complexity by constructing a mapping from complexity related factors to air traffic complexity labels.However,the low quality of complexity labels,which is named as label noise,has often been neglected and caused unsatisfactory performance in air traffic complexity evaluation.This paper aims at label noise in air traffic complexity samples,and proposes a confident learning and XGBoost-based approach to evaluate air traffic complexity under label noise.The confident learning process is applied to filter out noisy samples with various label probability distributions,and XGBoost is used to train a robust and high-performance air traffic complexity evaluation model on the different label noise filtered ratio datasets.Experiments are carried out on a real dataset from the Guangzhou airspace sector in China,and the results prove that the appropriate label noise removal strategy and XGBoost algorithm can effectively mitigate the label noise problem and achieve better performance in air traffic complexity evaluation.

Complex Sequence Quality Evaluation Model for Concealed Water Supply Pipeline of Prefabricated Construction

The accurate assessment of the quality can materially affect the safety and life of the prefabricated construction.In this paper,we studied the overall module of concealed water supply pipeline,and a new complex sequence quality evaluation model was established.By analyzing the small evaluation index elements of the model,the weight of the larger evaluation index could be deduced.The total quality evaluation score of the overall module could be obtained by calculating the weight value of the evaluation index,and then the quality standard of the overall module could be obtained.

Suitability evaluation and spatial capacity analysis for complex topography construction land area in southwest China:a case study of Tongzi county in Guizhou province

In the background of a new round reform and western development strategy, making suitability evaluation of construction land complex topography area in southwest China scientifically and accurately has an important guiding significance on the construction of local urban and rural development. We selected economic factor of construction, safety factor of construction, factor of the present situation of land use and ecological protection factor in Tongzi county as evaluation indexes, and ascertained the weight of each elastic indicator using the analytic hierarchy process method. By the support of GIS and RS technology, we combined the single-factor qualitative classification with the multi-factor weighted overlay analysis to make comprehensive suitability evaluation of construction land on the whole study area. And five different types of construction land were divided, namely, ‘excellent', ‘very good', ‘good', ‘moderate' and ‘poor'. The result shows that the area of ‘excellent' construction land is 30.47 km^2(0.95%), 101.46 km^2(3.16%) of ‘very good', 550.34 km^2(17.16%) of ‘good', and 664.69 km^2(20.72%) and 1 860.65 km^2(58.01%) of ‘moderate' and ‘poor', respectively. The land space bearing capacity is a population of 791 600, and the remaining population capacity is 170 900 persons.

Analysis and evaluation of structural complexity of circular economy system＇s industrial chain

This paper examined the method to evaluate structural complexity of circular economy system＇s industrial chain, which applied entropy information and hierarchical metrics to produce complexity degrees according to the theory of complex system. We developed an evaluation model to make a general metrics for circular economy system of industrial chains. The development of the evaluation tree drew upon five factors to identify the structural complexity. The evaluation model generated unitive entropy information from six data definition （node, level of community, metabolic span, degree of node, number of relation and connectivity of node） according to the evaluation tree. The industrial chains of Tashan circular economy park of Datong Coal Mine Group and Gujiao circular economy park of Xishan Coal-Electricity Group were evaluated by the proposed method. The key factors stunted by the decline of structural complexity were identified and the unitive metrics of entropy information of the industrial chain was shown for realigning the circular economy systems.

Up-to-date meta-analysis of long-term evaluations of mesenchymal stem cell therapy for complex perianal fistula

BACKGROUND Local mesenchymal stem cell(MSC)therapy for complex perianal fistulas(PFs)has shown considerable promise.But,the long-term safety and efficacy of MSC therapy in complex PFs remain unknown.AIM To explore the long-term effectiveness and safety of local MSC therapy for complex PFs.METHODS Sources included the PubMed,EMBASE,and Cochrane Library databases.A standard meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.3.RESULTS After screening,6 studies met the inclusion criteria.MSC therapy was associated with an improved long-term healing rate(HR)compared with the control condition[odds ratio(OR)=2.13;95%confidence interval(95%CI):1.34 to 3.38;P=0.001].Compared with fibrin glue(FG)therapy alone,MSC plus FG therapy was associated with an improved long-term HR(OR=2.30;95%CI:1.21 to 4.36;P=0.01).When magnetic resonance imaging was used to evaluate fistula healing,MSC therapy was found to achieve a higher long-term HR than the control treatment(OR=2.79;95%CI:1.37 to 5.67;P=0.005).There were no significant differences in long-term safety(OR=0.77;95%CI:0.27 to 2.24;P=0.64).CONCLUSION Our study indicated that local MSC therapy promotes long-term and sustained healing of complex PFs and that this method is safe.

Study on Complex System Evaluation Method Based on PCA and Grey Relative Degree

The complexity and limited data samples in evaluation of complex system are obstacles for traditional evaluation method. Based on Grey relative degree theory and principal components analysis (PCA) method, a novel systemic evaluation method is put forward in this paper. Firstly, standardization method is modified for evaluation objective, and the method includes expression (2) and (3). Secondly, for few schemes of complex system, grey relative degree, expression (5), is substituted for relation coefficient. At last, validity of the method is verified by evaluating 3 schemes of a type of UUV.

MAIN FUNCTIONS AND EVALUATION OF CUTI'S COMPLEX——Simulated Saturation Diving Chamber

The 300 msw Simulated Saturation Diving Chamber Complex was designed and built by ourselves. It was completed at the end of 1985. A 300 msw trimixed saturation diving experiment was successfully conducted in the complex by Chinese Underwater Technology Institute(CUTI) from May 22 to June 12 of 1987. During the experiment, 4 divers habitated in the complex for 20 days, and they performed 16 person-time excursion dives and 8 other tests. The result of the experiment indicates that the complex is well designed, suitably configurated, wholly integrated and steadily run, as well as of low leakage. The main functions of the complex have approached to those of the same kind in the world. The complex can be used as a basic facility for serving the nation's saturation diving technology, underwater operation, personnel training, etc.

An Evaluation System for Agriculture and Tourism Coupling Degree of Rural Complex Based on Production-living-ecological Space

Rural complex is a bright spot for China to realize the development of new industries for rural revitalization.Starting from the concept,development history and current situation of rural complex,based on the perspective of production-living-ecological space,according to the different characteristics of agriculture and tourism,3 secondary indices and 18 tertiary indices were selected,and each of them was weighted using the Delphi expert consultation method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to construct an evaluation system for the coupling degree of agriculture and tourism in rural complex.The results show gross domestic product and forest coverage have the most significant impact on agriculture,economic benefits and the ecological water quality of tourist attractions have the most significant impact on the tourism industry,and tourism economic benefits and agricultural ecological benefits have the most significant impact on rural complex.

Research of Personnel Operational Ability Evaluation of Large-scale Complex Equipment

The level of personnel operation ability determines the expected effectiveness of large-scale complex equipment. Firstly, this paper constructs the personnel operational ability evaluation index system and analyzes the data source of index. Secondly, the weight of index is determined and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is proposed. Finally, results of instance analysis show that the evaluation model is feasible and effective.

Selecting suitable key supplier for core components during smart complex equipment central-private enterprises collaborative development process:from two different forms of evaluation information and matching perspective

With the development of central-private enterprises integration,selecting suitable key suppliers are able to provide core components for smart complex equipment.We consider selecting suitable key suppliers from matching perspective,for it not only satisfies natural development of smart complex equipment,it is also a good implementation of equipment project in central-private enterprises integration context.In in this paper,we carry out two parts of research,one is evaluation attributes based on comprehensive analysis,and the other is matching process between key suppliers and core components based on the matching attribute.In practical analysis process,we employ comprehensive evaluated analysis methods to acquire relevant attributes for the matching process that follows.In the analysis process,we adopt entropy-maximum deviation method(MDM)-decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)-technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)to obtain a comprehensive analysis.The entropy-MDM is applied to get weight value,DEMATEL is utilized to obtain internal relations,and TOPSIS is adopted to get ideal evaluated solution.We consider aggregating two types of evaluation information according to similarities of smart complex equipment based on the combination between geometric mean and arithmetic mean.Moreover,based on the aforementioned attributes and generalized power Heronian mean operator,we aggregate preference information to acquire relevant satisfaction degree,then combine the constructed matching model to get suitable key supplier.Through comprehensive analysis of selecting suitable suppliers,we know that two-sided matching and information aggregation can provide more research perspectives for smart complex equipment.Through analysis for relevant factors,we find that leading role and service level are also significant for the smart complex equipment development process.

Hierarchical hybrid testability modeling and evaluation method based on information fusion

In order to meet the demand of testability analysis and evaluation for complex equipment under a small sample test in the equipment life cycle, the hierarchical hybrid testability model- ing and evaluation method （HHTME）, which combines the testabi- lity structure model （TSM） with the testability Bayesian networks model （TBNM）, is presented. Firstly, the testability network topo- logy of complex equipment is built by using the hierarchical hybrid testability modeling method. Secondly, the prior conditional prob- ability distribution between network nodes is determined through expert experience. Then the Bayesian method is used to update the conditional probability distribution, according to history test information, virtual simulation information and similar product in- formation. Finally, the learned hierarchical hybrid testability model （HHTM） is used to estimate the testability of equipment. Compared with the results of other modeling methods, the relative deviation of the HHTM is only 0.52%, and the evaluation result is the most accu rate.

Evaluaton model for the geometry complexity of casting based on fuzzy theory

The parameters that describe the complex degree of a certain casting are of some uncertainty. Therefore, a new method based on the fuzzy theory to classify the complex degree of castings has been presented in this paper. The feasibility of fuzzy theory in describing the complex degree of castings has been discussed and the procedure of this method has been specified by analyzing the complex degrees of some typical castings. The element factors that influence the casting complexity, have been summarized, which include the wall-thickness and the number of transition surface, etc. The results show that it is reasonable and practicable to classify the complex degree of castings with the fuzzy theory.

Metric Based Evaluation and Improvement of Software Designs

The demand for quality software expands as the business environment grows internationally. Common to all software development methodologies is a design phase that focuses on the physical software model. Design criteria used to evaluate these models are important for refinement and improvement. The purpose of this research is to apply transformations of McCabe’s cyclomatic complexity as a means for improving software design and assessing risks within a design. In this research, two metrics, the management (CMGT) and maintenance (CMN) coefficients are introduced, and they are used to address the architectural, size, and quality dimensions of a software design.

Dependability Evaluation of a Vehicle System by Simulation Method

The vehicle system studied in this paper is a type of complex repairable system in which the subsystems follow various failure distributions and conform to arbitrary failure and repair distributions.The failure data of subsystems are sometimes lacking,and the reliability test sample sizes tend to be small.Monte-Carlo technique combined with Bayes method is used to evaluate its dependability(reliability and maintainability).Following the "first-in,first-out" queuing rule,the logic relation of dependability is established by means of repairing priority and event lists.Simulation outputs the entire history of a mission,statistics of reliability and maintainability parameters and provides the basic data for system reliability design and maintainability management.

Analysis on MAV/UAV cooperative combat based on complex network

A formation model of manned/unmanned aerial vehicle(MAV/UAV) collaborative combat can qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the synergistic effects.However,there is currently no effective and appropriate model construction method or theory,and research in the field of collaborative capability evaluation is basically nonexistent.According to the actual conditions of cooperative operations,a new MAV/UAV collaborative combat network model construction method based on a complex network is presented.By analyzing the characteristic parameters of the abstract network,the index system and complex network are combined.Then,a method for evaluating the synergistic effect of the cooperative combat network is developed.This method provides assistance for the verification and evaluation of MAV/UAV collaborative combat.

Study on the accuracy of comprehensive evaluating method based on fuzzy set theory

The evaluation method and its accuracy for evaluating complex systems are considered. In order to evaluate accurately complex systems, the existed evaluating methods are simply analyzed, and a new comprehensive evaluating method is developed. The new method is integration of Delphi approach, analytic hierarchy process, gray interconnect degree and fuzzy evaluation (DHGF). Its theory foundation is the meta-synthesis methodology from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis. According to fuzzy set approach, using the methods of concordance of evaluation, redundant verify, double models redundant, and limitations of the method etc, the accuracy of evaluating method of DHGF is estimated, and a practical example is given. The result shows that using the method to evaluate complex system projects is feasible and credible.

Log identification method in complex sand reservoirs

In order to obtain effective parameters for complex sand reservoirs,a log evaluation method for relevant reservoir parameters is established based on an analysis in the gas-bearing sandstone with high porosity and low permeability,low porosity and permeability and on various characteristics of log responses to reservoir lithologies and physical properties in the Neopleozoic sand reservoir of the Ordos basin.This log evaluation method covers the Cook method that is used to evaluate the porosity and oiliness in high porosity and low permeability reservoirs and another method in which the mineral content,derived from geochemical logs,is used to identify formation lithologies.Some areas have high calcium and low silt content,not uniformly distributed,the results of which show up in the complex formation lithologies and conventional log responses with great deviation.The reliability of the method is verified by comparison with conventional log data and core analyses.The calculation results coincide with the core analytical data and gas tests,which indicate that this log evaluation method is available,provides novel ideas for study of similar complex reservoir lithologies and has some reference value.

Survivability Mechanisms of Complex Computer Systems Based on Common Information Space

The survivability of computer systems should be guaranteed in order to improve its operation efficiency,especially for the efficiency of its critical functions.This paper proposes a decentralized mechanism based on Software-Defined Architecture(SDA).The concepts of critical functions and critical states are defined,and then,the critical functional parameters of the target system are collected and analyzed.Experiments based on the analysis results are performed for reconfiguring the implementations of the whole system.A formal model is presented for analyzing and improving the survivability of the system,and the problem investigated in this paper is reduced to an optimization problem for increasing the system survival time.

Management of Wilt Complex of Eggplant (<i>Solanum melongena</i>L.) Caused by <i>Fusarium oxysporum, Ralstonia solanacearum</i>and <i>Meloidogyne</i>spp.

Wilt complex disease of eggplant is a severe problem in Bangladesh as well as in the world. The pathogenic variability and their survival nature make the disease complex. The pathogen includes a fungus (Fusarium oxysporum), a bacterium (Ralstonia solanacearum) and a nematode (Meloidogyne spp.) that attack the plant individually or combinedly. The present investigation aimed to evaluate the integrated effects of different chemicals, poultry manure and Trichoderma harzianum to manage the disease. Carbendazim (Autostin 50WP), Streptomycin sulphate 9% and Tetracycline hydrochloride 1% (Krosin 10SP) and Carbofuran (Furadan 3G) were used as a fungicide, bactericide and nematicide, respectively which were integrated with poultry manure and Trichoderma harzianum resulting in sixteen treatments. The treatment efficacy varied significantly in comparison to control in respect of wilt incidence, yield and yield contributing characters. No wilt incidence was observed where Trichoderma harzianum was applied individually or in combination with Furadan 3G, Krosin 10SP, Autostin 50WP and poultry manure. The highest yield increase (300%) over control was noted in the treatment where Krosin 10SP, Furadan 3G, Trichoderma harzianum and Poultry manure were applied combinedly. The same treatment showed the best performance over control by 32%, 29%, 60%, 53% in case of the number of branches, number of leaves, number of fruits and fruit length, respectively. This treatment (Krosin 10SP + Furadan 3G + Trichoderma sp. + Poultry manure) also provided the highest Benefit Cost Ration (5.68).