A Health State Prediction Model Based on Belief Rule Base and LSTM for Complex Systems

In industrial production and engineering operations,the health state of complex systems is critical,and predicting it can ensure normal operation.Complex systems have many monitoring indicators,complex coupling structures,non-linear and time-varying characteristics,so it is a challenge to establish a reliable prediction model.The belief rule base(BRB)can fuse observed data and expert knowledge to establish a nonlinear relationship between input and output and has well modeling capabilities.Since each indicator of the complex system can reflect the health state to some extent,the BRB is built based on the causal relationship between system indicators and the health state to achieve the prediction.A health state prediction model based on BRB and long short term memory for complex systems is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the LSTMis introduced to predict the trend of the indicators in the system.Secondly,the Density Peak Clustering(DPC)algorithmis used todetermine referential values of indicators for BRB,which effectively offset the lack of expert knowledge.Then,the predicted values and expert knowledge are fused to construct BRB to predict the health state of the systems by inference.Finally,the effectiveness of the model is verified by a case study of a certain vehicle hydraulic pump.

Hierarchical Self-organization of Complex Systems

Researches on organization and structure in complex systems are academic and industrial fronts in modern sciences. Though many theories are tentatively proposed to analyze complex systems, we still lack a rigorous theory on them. Complex systems possess various degrees of freedom, which means that they should exhibit all kinds of structures. However, complex systems often show similar patterns and structures. Then the question arises why such similar structures appear in all kinds of complex systems. The paper outlines a theory on freedom degree compression and the existence of hierarchical self-organization for all complex systems is found. It is freedom degree compression and hierarchical self-organization that are responsible for the existence of these similar patterns or structures observed in the complex systems.

Engineering complex systems applied to risk management in the mining industry

Related to complexity, there is a wide diversity of concepts, ranging from ‘‘systemic" to ‘‘complex", implying a need for a unified terminology. Per different authors, the main drivers of complexity can be found in human behaviour and uncertainty. This complexity, structural or dynamic can be organizational, technological, or nested in their relationship. ISO international standard 31000:2009 definition of risk management ‘‘coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk", when applied to economic sectors, industry, services, project, or activity, it requires the use of models or theories as guidelines. Therefore, as its basic elements comprehend human behaviour and/or uncertainty, risk management to be effective and adapted as much as possible to reality, must be operational within complex systems, as already demonstrated in different R&D environments. Risk management faces demanding challenges when approaching specific and endogenous needs, such as the mining sector. This paper presents a multivariable function analysis methodology approach based on complex system modelling and through real data corresponding to a risk management tool in the mining sector.

IoT-based Smart and Complex Systems：A Guest Editorial Report

THE Industrial Revolution starting from about 1760 and ending at around 1840 has been viewed as the first Industrial Revolution.It features with the replacement of human and animal muscle power with steam and mechanical power.Human income per capita had taken 800 years to double by

A Novel Evolutionary-Fuzzy Control Algorithm for Complex Systems

This paper presents an adaptive fuzzy control scheme based on modified genetic algorithm. In the control scheme, genetic algorithm is used to optimze the nonlinear quantization functions of the controller and some key parameters of the adaptive control algorithm. Simulation results show that this control scheme has satisfactory performance in MIMO systems, chaotic systems and delay systems.

A numerical study of coupled maps representing energy exchange processes between two environmental interfaces regarded as biophysical complex systems

The field of environmental sciences is abundant with various interfaces and is the right place for the application of new fundamental approaches leading towards a better understanding of environmental phenomena. Following the definition of environmental interface by Mihailovic and Bala? [1], such interface can be, for example, placed between: human or animal bodies and surrounding air, aquatic species and water and air around them, and natural or artificially built surfaces (vegetation, ice, snow, barren soil, water, urban communities) and the atmosphere, cells and surrounding environment, etc. Complex environmental interface systems are (i) open and hierarchically organised (ii) interactions between their constituent parts are nonlinear, and (iii) their interaction with the surrounding environment is noisy. These systems are therefore very sensitive to initial conditions, deterministic external perturbations and random fluctuations always present in nature. The study of noisy non-equilibrium processes is fundamental for modelling the dynamics of environmental interface regarded as biophysical complex system and for understanding the mechanisms of spatio-temporal pattern formation in contemporary environmental sciences. In this paper we will investigate an aspect of dynamics of energy flow based on the energy balance equation. The energy exchange between interacting environmen- tal interfaces regarded as biophysical complex systems can be represented by coupled maps. Therefore, we will numerically investigate coupled maps representing that exchange. In ana- lysis of behaviour of these maps we applied Lyapunov exponent and cross sample entropy.

A GENERAL MATHEMATICAL FRAMEWORK OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS(Ⅰ)

The fundamental and simplest structure of a complex system is a network.According to this idea,we plan to develop a general methematical framework of complex systems.In this paper,we discuss in detail the concept of systems,a general description of systems:System=(Hardware,Software,Environment),and whole-part relations,including relations between elements and systems,subsystems and systems,and between systems.The rules of operations of systems are given,and the induced transformations between hardware and software of systems are briefly discussed.

APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS OF REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Meeting the challenge of sustainable development requires substantial advances in understanding the interaction of natural and human systems. The dynamics of regional sustainable development could be addressed in the context of complex system thinking. Three features of complex systems are that they are uncertain, non-linear and self-organizing. Modeling regional development requires a consideration of these features. This paper discusses the feasibility of using the artificial neural networt(ANN) to establish an adjustment prediction model for the complex systems of sustainable development (CSSD). Shanghai Municipality was selected as the research area to set up the model, from which reliable prediction data were produced in order to help regional development planning. A new approach, which could help to manage regional sustainable development, is then explored.

Study of electrophysical properties of metal–semiconductor contact by the theory of complex systems

The purpose of this work is to analyze the electrical properties of the metal–semiconductor contact(MSC)in the framework of the theory of complex systems.The effect of inhomogeneity of the different microstructures:polycrystalline,monocrystalline,amorphous metal–semiconductor contact surface is investigated,considering a Schottky diode(SD)as a parallel connection of numerous subdiodes.It has been shown that the polycrystallinity of the metal translates a homogeneous contact into a complex system,which consists of parallel connected numerous elementary contacts having different properties and parameters.

Robust finite-time stabilization of unified chaotic complex systems with certain and uncertain parameters

This paper deals with the finite-time stabilization of unified chaotic complex systems with known and unknown parameters. Based on the finite-time stability theory, nonlinear control laws are presented to achieve finite-time chaos control of the determined and uncertain unified chaotic complex systems, respectively. The two controllers are simple, and one of the uncertain unified chaotic complex systems is robust. For the design of a finite-time controller on uncertain unified chaotic complex systems, only some of the unknown parameters need to be bounded. Simulation results for the chaotic complex Lorenz, Lu¨ and Chen systems are presented to validate the design and analysis.

PANSYSTEMS CLUSTERING ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS

In this paper, by use of equivalence operators δi and semi-equivalence operators Εi we study the clustering problems of complex systems, present δ (1,3) disconnection principle, dual transformation principle and large-scale systems decomposition principle for analizing and operating complex systems, discuss interconnectivity and disconnectivity of complex systems in detail and present some related theorems. Finally, we discuss the levels of systems according to pansystems clustering approach proposed in this paper.

The Golden Ratio Theorem: A Framework for Interchangeability and Self-Similarity in Complex Systems

The Golden Ratio Theorem, deeply rooted in fractal mathematics, presents a pioneering perspective on deciphering complex systems. It draws a profound connection between the principles of interchangeability, self-similarity, and the mathematical elegance of the Golden Ratio. This research unravels a unique methodological paradigm, emphasizing the omnipresence of the Golden Ratio in shaping system dynamics. The novelty of this study stems from its detailed exposition of self-similarity and interchangeability, transforming them from mere abstract notions into actionable, concrete insights. By highlighting the fractal nature of the Golden Ratio, the implications of these revelations become far-reaching, heralding new avenues for both theoretical advancements and pragmatic applications across a spectrum of scientific disciplines.

Complex Systems Are Not Black Boxes but Solvable Systematical Problems;Proven by Simulation and New Conception

This paper presents an innovative solution regarding complex systems to scientists, and prepares a novel system simulator for complex systems. A complex system in nature is not a black box but a solvable systematic problem. The solution is not derived from conventional physics based on reductionism, but rather from engineering sciences such as the feedback systems analysis method and engineering principles. Furthermore, this paper presents the conception of the solution to scientists for solving the problem. Moreover, nobody can doubt this research based on simulator. Complex systems are not mysterious science and not black box.

Complex Systems Theory: Some Considerations for Sociology

This essay presents a reflection on the main implications of Complexity Theory for science in general, redefining and dispelling myths of traditional science, and Sociology in particular, suggesting a redefinition of Parsons’ classic concept of Social System, articulated around the property of self-maintenance of order rather than on its possible discontinuity and instability. It argues that Complexity Theory has established the limits of Classic Science, leading to a more realistic awareness of working and evolution mechanisms of Natural and Social Systems and showing the limits of our capacity to predict and control events. Dissipative structures have shown the creative role of time. Instability, emergence, surprise, unpredictability are the rule rather than the exception when systems move away from equilibrium (entropy), even if these processes are generated from a system’s deterministic working mechanisms. Therefore, we have come to realize how constructive the contribution of Complexity is, in regards to the long lasting problem of the relationship between order and disorder. Today, the terms of this relationship have been re-specified in its new configuration of inter-relationship link, according to a unicum which finds its synthesis in self-organization and deterministic chaos concepts. From this perspective, as Prigogine suggested, studies on Complex Systems are heading toward a historical, biological conception of Physics, and a new alliance between natural systems and living, social systems. Non-linearity, far from equilibrium self-organization, emergence and surprise meet at all levels, as this paper attempts to highlight. In Sociology, insights of Complexity Theory have contributed to a new way of thinking about social systems, by re-addressing some fundamental issues starting to social system, emergence and change concepts. The current social system conception as complex dynamical systems is supported by a profitable use of non-liner models (in particular, the Logistic map) in the study of social processes.

Mutually trustworthy human-machine knowledge automation and hybrid augmented intelligence:mechanisms and applications of cognition,management,and control for complex systems

In this paper,we aim to illustrate the concept of mutually trustworthy human-machine knowledge automation(HM-KA)as the technical mechanism of hybrid augmented intelligence(HAI)based complex system cognition,management,and control(CMC).We describe the historical development of complex system science and analyze the limitations of human intelligence and machine intelligence.The need for using human-machine HAI in complex systems is then explained in detail.The concept of“mutually trustworthy HM-KA”mechanism is proposed to tackle the CMC challenge,and its technical procedure and pathway are demonstrated using an example of corrective control in bulk power grid dispatch.It is expected that the proposed mutually trustworthy HM-KA concept can provide a novel and canonical mechanism and benefit real-world practices of complex system CMC.

Performance evaluation of complex systems using evidential reasoning approach with uncertain parameters

The composition of the modern aerospace system becomes more and more complex.The performance degradation of any device in the system may cause it difficult for the whole system to keep normal working states.Therefore,it is essential to evaluate the performance of complex aerospace systems.In this paper,the performance evaluation of complex aerospace systems is regarded as a Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis(MADA)problem.Based on the structure and working principle of the system,a new Evidential Reasoning(ER)based approach with uncertain parameters is proposed to construct a nonlinear optimization model to evaluate the system performance.In the model,the interval form is used to express the uncertainty,such as error in testing data and inaccuracy in expert knowledge.In order to analyze the subsystems that have a great impact on the performance of the system,the sensitivity analysis of the evaluation result is carried out,and the corresponding maintenance strategy is proposed.For a type of Inertial Measurement Unit(IMU)used in a rocket,the proposed method is employed to evaluate its performance.Then,the parameter sensitivity of the evaluation result is analyzed,and the main factors affecting the performance of IMU are obtained.Finally,the comparative study shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Redox reactions of iron and manganese oxides in complex systems

Conspectus:Redox reactions of Fe-and Mn-oxides play important roles in the fate and transformation of many contaminants in natural environments.Due to experimental and analytical challenges associated with complex environments,there has been a limited understanding of the reaction kinetics and mechanisms in actual environmental systems,and most of the studies so far have only focused on simple model systems.To bridge the gap between simple model systems and complex environmental systems,it is necessary to increase the complexity of model systems and examine both the involved interaction mechanisms and how the interactions affected contaminant transformation.In this Account,we primarily focused on(1)the oxidative reactivity of Mn-and Fe-oxides and(2)the reductive reactivity of Fe(Ⅱ)/iron oxides in comolex model systems toward contaminant degradation.The effects of common metal ions such as Mn2+,Ca2+,Ni2+,Cr3+and Cu2+,ligands such as small anionic ligands and natural organic matter(NOM),and second metal oxides such as A1,Si and Ti oxides on the redox reactivity of the systems are briefly summarized.

Network Pharmacology:An Approach to the Analysis of Complex Systems Underlying Traditional Chinese Medicine

As one of the most important complementary and alternative therapies in clinical practice,traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)holds great potential in treating various complex diseases,especially in the area of chronic and non-communicable diseases.However,in terms of the complexity of chemical and biological profiles in TCM,a traditional reductionist cannot adequately explain the scientific nature of TCM.

Complex Systems in Economics and Where to Find Them

The economy as a whole and most of its constituent parts, like markets, government institutions, firms, or households, are inherently complex conceptual constructions. Micro-level diversity,decentralized interaction, self-organization, adaptation and learning, emergence, and evolution, are some of the fundamental features that the above entities share and that allow to classify them as being complex entities. In a complex economic system, existing structures of interaction are in constant mutation as individual agents contact and influence one another and, by doing so, reshape the macro environment in which socio-economic relations unfold. Notwithstanding the observed pervasiveness of complexity in economics, there are a few areas of economic thought where the discussion on the theme has gained an exceptional relevance. In this article, six of such areas are identified and their complex nature is highlighted and scrutinized. These pertain to:(i) Knowledge interactions and technological innovation;(ii) Corporate design and organizational learning;(iii) Public policies directed at market regulation;(iv) Banking and financial markets;(v) Environmental economics, sustainability,and climate change;and(vi) income inequality.

State-of-the-Art Development of Complex Systems and Their Simulation Methods

The research on complex systems is different from that on general systems because the former must consider self-organization,emergence,uncertainty,predetermination,and evolution.As an important method to transform the world,a simulation is one of the most important skills to discover complex systems.In this study,we provide a survey on complex systems and their simulation methods.Initially,the development history of complex system research is summarized from two main lines.Then,the eight common characteristics of the most complex systems are presented.Furthermore,the simulation methods of complex systems are introduced in detail from four aspects,namely,meta-synthesis methods,complex networks,intelligent technologies,and other methods.From the overall point of view,intelligent technologies are the driving force,and complex networks are the advanced structure.Meta-synthesis methods are the integration strategy,and other methods are the supplements.In addition,we show three complex system simulation examples:digital reactor simulation,simulation of a logistics system in the industrial site,and crowd evacuation simulation.The examples show that a simulation is a useful means and an important method in complex system research.Finally,the future development prospects for complex systems and their simulation methods are suggested.