A Study on an Extensive Hierarchical Model for Demand Forecasting of Automobile Components

Demand forecasting and big data analytics in supply chain management are gaining interest.This is attributed to the wide range of big data analytics in supply chain management,in addition to demand forecasting,and behavioral analysis.In this article,we studied the application of big data analytics forecasting in supply chain demand forecasting in the automotive parts industry to propose classifications of these applications,identify gaps,and provide ideas for future research.Algorithms will then be classified and then applied in supply chain management such as neural networks,k-nearest neighbors,time series forecasting,clustering,regression analysis,support vector regression and support vector machines.An extensive hierarchical model for short-term auto parts demand assess-ment was employed to avoid the shortcomings of the earlier models and to close the gap that regarded mainly a single time series.The concept of extensive relevance assessment was proposed,and subsequently methods to reflect the relevance of automotive demand factors were discussed.Using a wide range of skills,the factors and co-factors are expressed in the form of a correlation characteristic matrix to ensure the degree of influence of each factor on the demand for automotive components.Then,it is compared with the existing data and predicted the short-term historical data.The result proved the predictive error is less than 6%,which supports the validity of the prediction method.This research offers the basis for the macroeconomic regulation of the government and the production of auto parts manufacturers.

多源激光点云建模在桥梁养护中的探索

运营已久的复杂山区高速公路桥梁在路面负荷严重、次生地质灾害的影响下,对道路日常的养护运维工作带来了很大挑战。利用桥梁三维建模技术进行在线可视化,同时在重点桥梁路段安装监测设备,在线进行桥梁健康监测成为目前新的技术手段。针对运营较长时间的道路桥梁设计竣工图纸缺失,无法通过图纸复现真实的桥梁模型,采用地面站式激光与车载激光相结合的方法,对长时间运营桥梁进行扫描,对两种方法得到的点云数据进行配准及滤波处理,然后进行单体化建模,真实还原运营桥梁的结构形态。同时,利用公路行业BIM模型标准,对单体化的桥梁进行构件拆分编码,形成规范的桥梁单元模块。在此基础上,利用GIS技术开发高速公路基础设施平台,关联桥梁养护相关作业模块,实现既有高速公路桥梁线上巡检养护。

A parameterization scheme of vertical mixing due to inertial internal wave breaking in the ocean general circulation model

Based on the theoretical spectral model of inertial internal wave breaking （fine structure） proposed previ- ously, in which the effects of the horizontal Coriolis frequency component f-tilde on a potential isopycnal are taken into account, a parameterization scheme of vertical mixing in the stably stratified interior be- low the surface mixed layer in the ocean general circulation model （OGCM） is put forward preliminarily in this paper. Besides turbulence, the impact of sub-mesoscale oceanic processes （including inertial internal wave breaking product） on oceanic interior mixing is emphasized. We suggest that adding the inertial inter- hal wave breaking mixing scheme （F-scheme for short） put forward in this paper to the turbulence mixing scheme of Canuto et al. （T-scheme for short） in the OGCM, except the region from 15°S to 15°N. The numeri- cal results ofF-scheme by usingWOA09 data and an OGCM （LICOM, LASG/IAP climate system ocean model） over the global ocean are given. A notable improvement in the simulation of salinity and temperature over the global ocean is attained by using T-scheme adding F-scheme, especially in the mid- and high-latitude regions in the simulation of the intermediate water and deep water. We conjecture that the inertial internal wave breaking mixing and inertial forcing of wind might be one of important mechanisms maintaining the ventilation process. The modeling strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation （AMOC） by using T-scheme adding F-scheme may be more reasonable than that by using T-scheme alone, though the physical processes need to be further studied, and the overflow parameterization needs to be incorporated. A shortcoming in F-scheme is that in this paper the error of simulated salinity and temperature by using T-scheme adding F-scheme is larger than that by using T-scheme alone in the subsurface layer.

Influences of affiliated components and train length on the train wind

The induced airfl w from passing trains,which is recognized as train wind,usually has adverse impacts on people in the surroundings,i.e.,the aerodynamic forces generated by a high-speed train＇s wind may act on the human body and endanger the safety of pedestrians or roadside workers.In this paper,an improved delayed detached eddy simulation（IDDES） method is used to study train wind.The effects of the affiliate components and train length on train wind are analyzed.The results indicate that the aff liated components and train length have no effect on train wind in the area in front of the leading nose.In the downstream and wake regions,the longitudinal train wind becomes stronger as the length of the train increases,while the transverse train wind is not affected.The presence of affiliate components strengthens the train wind in the near fiel of the train because of strong fl w solid interactions but has limited effects on train wind in the far field.

An implicit method using contravariant velocity components and its application to calculations in a harbour-channel area

The key problem in the computation of fluid dynamics using fine boundary-fitted grids is how to improve the numerical stability and decrease the calculating quantity. To solve this problem, implicit schemes should be adopted since explicit schemes may bring about a great increase in computation quantity according to the Courant-FrledrichsLewy condition. Whereas the adoption of implicit schemes is difficult to be realized because of the existence of two partial derivatives of surface elevations with respect to variables of alternative direction coordinates in each momentum equation in non-rectangular coordinates. With an aim to design an implicit scheme in non-reetangular ccordinates in the present paper, new momentum equations with the contravariant components of velocity vector are derived based on the shallow water dynamic equations in generalized curvilinear coordinates. In each equation, the coefficients before the two detivatives of surface elevations have different orders of magnitude, i. e., the derivative with the larger ceefficient rnay play a more important role than that with the smaller one. With this advantage, the ADI scheme can then be easily employed to improve the numerical stability and decrease the calculating quantity. The calculation in a harbour and a channel in Macau nearshore area shows that the implicit model is effective in calculating current fields in small size areas.

USING LOGIC COMPONENTS FOR CONCEPTUAL DIE DESIGN

Logic components are used to support the conceptual design Taking the stamping die structure as the research object,several logic components are defined for the conceptual die construction design A new method logic assembly modeling is presented to satisfy the characteristic of the top down die design process Representing shapes and spatial relations in logic can provide a natural,intuitive method of developing complete computer systems for reasoning about die construction design at the conceptual stage This method can reflect the designer's thought clearly and provide the designer with a test bed for generating alternatives and performing reasoning work at the conceptual die design stage

可重构流程模型驱动和组件化的MES流程进化

为使制造执行系统流程能够始终与用户业务流程保持一致,提出一种基于可重构流程模型和组件技术的流程进化实施方法。对业务流程可变性进行分析,建立了可重构流程模型,并对其可重构性进行了说明。定义了组件模型,使流程模型能以组件的形式封装和部署。给出了流程模型分析算法与流程组件调整算法,通过流程模型在重构前后发生的变化驱动流程组件进行重构,完成对系统流程的进化。结合某航天企业的开发实施验证了该方法的可行性。

基于网络模型的组件化软件开发方法研究

文章将网络技术溶入到组件化技术当中,针对已有组件化技术所存在的隐式指定组件连接关系的问题,提出了一种"基于网络模型"的组件化设计方法,并从组件的模型、组件报文处理机制、软件架构、组件的使用以及相应的应用实例等方面对该设计方法进行阐述;该方法为组件的连接提供了一种灵活的调整机制,并使组件具有更强的独立性和封装性;在设计与实现"网络实验室管理系统"的实际应用中,大大提高了软件质量,缩短了开发时间。

一种基于角色的特征模型构件化方法

为了解决领域特征模型混杂交织及其与需求模型过度耦合的问题,本文设计了一种特征模型构件化方法.该方法引入角色的概念,并以角色为中介设计了特征-角色-构件映射算法,将在领域分析过程中提取和抽象的特征映射到不同的构件模型上.通过角色的中介作用,方法实现了特征模型和需求模型的解耦,各个特征模型的可变点可以自由方便地选择和组合,从而提高了软件的构件化水平.

近炸引信虚拟样机技术研究

文章对近炸引信虚拟样机的概念进行了探讨,研究了虚拟样机设计环境、设计方法和引信系统、部件模型设计方法。以无线电引信为例,应用Matlab/Simulink软件平台构建了引信虚拟样机模型;利用Simulink环境的图形化建模能力和功能模块库开发了引信部件模型库。并以标准球为目标信号验证了引信部件模型,最后简述了虚拟样机技术的发展趋势。

特征功能分析在产品线构件设计中的应用研究

以功能交互的视角解剖特征模型结构,从中分析特征之间存在的功能交互,并根据其中的功能实现特点设计了一套特征—构件模型映射算法来构造面向特征的高内聚构件模型。这一过程实现了特征的内在功能完整性,其之上的功能耦合也随之解除。这不仅提高了可复用软件资产自动化效率,且大大减低了日后的维护成本。

基于可扩展仿真平台的战术机动模型设计与实现

针对作战仿真实体战术对抗的现实需要,运用组件化建模技术,初步构建了作战实体战术机动模型,在介绍战术机动概念的基础上,详细介绍了机动模型的建模过程,并对模型的移动行为进行了简单阐述。最后用XSIM可扩展仿真平台对战术机动模型进行了实现和测试,验证了战术机动模型的可用性,并为复杂红蓝对抗作战仿真打下了基础。

面向电力系统的可视化页面编辑引擎

针对电力系统前端技术多样性和手工编码方式效率低无法满足需求的快速增长的问题,结合组件化设计思想、可视化和虚拟DOM技术,设计实现了一种面向电力系统的可视化低代码页面编辑引擎.页面构建过程中采用虚拟DOM技术,适用于绝大部分场景页面的高性能渲染,设计了统一数据模型实现异构多源数据的统一接入和多组件数据共享,并提出基于多类型模板的页面编辑思想,满足业务系统多样化集成需求.实践结果表明,该系统能够提供低代码、低门槛的敏捷高效开发,大大地提高了电力系统前端页面的开发效率.

A Brief Introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and Its Earth Surface Temperature Simulations

Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper, a new human--earth system model, BNU- HESM1.0, constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model, is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that, compared to observation, BNU-HESM1.0 underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965-2005, due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However, the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation, resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty, so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM 1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However, the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.

A compressed variance component mixed model for detecting QTNs and QTN-by-environment and QTN-by-QTN interactions in genome-wide association studies

Although genome-wide association studies are widely used to mine genes for quantitative traits,the effects to be estimated are confounded,and the methodologies for detecting interactions are imperfect.To address these issues,the mixed model proposed here first estimates the genotypic effects for AA,Aa,and aa,and the genotypic polygenic background replaces additive and dominance polygenic backgrounds.Then,the estimated genotypic effects are partitioned into additive and dominance effects using a one-way analysis of variance model.This strategy was further expanded to cover QTN-by-environment interactions(QEIs)and QTN-by-QTN interactions(QQIs)using the same mixed-model framework.Thus,a three-variance-component mixed model was integrated with our multi-locus random-SNP-effect mixed linear model(mrMLM)method to establish a new methodological framework,3VmrMLM,that detects all types of loci and estimates their effects.In Monte Carlo studies,3VmrMLM correctly detected all types of loci and almost unbiasedly estimated their effects,with high powers and accuracies and a low false positive rate.In re-analyses of 10 traits in 1439 rice hybrids,detection of 269 known genes,45 known gene-by-environment interactions,and 20 known gene-by-gene interactions strongly validated 3VmrMLM.Further analyses of known genes showed more small(67.49%),minor-allele-frequency(35.52%),and pleiotropic(30.54%)genes,with higher repeatability across datasets(54.36%)and more dominance loci.In addition,a heteroscedasticity mixed model in multiple environments and dimension reduction methods in quite a number of environments were developed to detect QEIs,and variable selection under a polygenic background was proposed for QQI detection.This study provides a new approach for revealing the genetic architecture of quantitative traits.

基于ESMF的POP海洋模式组件化设计与并行方法研究

针对目前海洋模式开发存在的移植、更新和相同功能代码重用困难的问题，对海洋模式的功能分解及组件化封装进行了研究，设计了一套基于地球系统建模框架（ESMF）的组件化与并行化方法，并将其应用在并行海洋模式POP上，构建了一种新的组件化海洋模式。对新模式的测试结果表明，上述方法能在保证模式正确性的基础上实现模式的可复用性与可维护性，并且能在一定程度上提高模式的运行效率。

面向模拟训练的CGF空中目标建模与仿真

针对防空武器仿真模拟训练需要建立智能性、自主性目标的要求,以模块化和组件化的模型结构,对CGF空中目标建模进行了框架构建及粒度分析,建立了目标机动模型、雷达火控模型及智能专家决策模型,并具备自主与受控两种目标构建方式。以某型防空武器目标模拟器为背景进行仿真实验,结果表明此模型解决了CGF模拟训练系统中目标参数单一,训练复杂度及真实度欠佳的问题,满足仿真模拟训练的要求,加强了训练人员的沉浸感,有效提升了训练水平。并且基于组件式的开发模式给予模型良好的可重用性和交互性。

Research of whispered speech vocal tract system conversion based on universal background model and effective Gaussian components

Directing to the weakness of the present fixed values mapping methods （method_F）, a vocal tract system conversion method based on the universal background model （UBM） is proposed for improving the performance of the speech conversion system from Chinese whis- pered speech to normal speech. For the numerous components of UBM, the errors produced by the acoustical probability density statistical model can＇t be ignored. Thus an effective Gaus- sian mixture components chosen method based on the posterior probability summation of the minimum spectral distortion is developed to optimizing the system performance. The proposed method （method_U） is analyzed and compared using the performance index （PI） based on Itakura-Saito spectral distortion measure. It is shown experimentally that the performance of method_U is more stability for different speakers and different phonemes than that of method_F. The average PI of method_U is better than method_F. It is shown that by selecting effective Gaussian mixture components, the PI of method_U can be further improved 5.11%. Subjective auditory tests also show that the proposed method can improve the definition and intelligibility of conversion speech.

作战仿真实体模型组件化构建方法设计

针对传统作战仿真实体建模方法导致的模型通用性、实用性、扩展性差等现象,经过长期实践经验总结,遵循“抽象—分解组件—组件建模”的建模规范,提出了一种实用性很强的作战仿真模型组件化建模方法,并说明该建模方法的组件化建模机制,给出模型体系,从模型总体结构、模型运行机制、模型交互方法等方面进行了详细阐述,为构建良好实用的作战仿真实体模型提供技术支撑,已经在工程项目中得以应用,具有很强的应用价值。

Catalytic Hydrothermal Liquefaction of Algae for Production of Bio-oil with Solid Superacid Catalyst SO_(4)^(2−)/ZrO_(2)

Solid superacid SO_(4)^(2−)/ZrO_(2)as heterogeneous catalyst was prepared to upgrade the bio-oil in the progress of hydrother-mal liquefaction(HTL)for the represented algae of Chlorella vulgaris and Enteromorpha prolifera.The solid superacid catalyst could obviously adjust the composition of the bio-oil and improve the higher heating values(HHVs).The catalytic performance could be regulated by adjusting the acid amount and acid strength of SO_(4)^(2−)/ZrO_(2).Furthermore,it was explored the catalytic effects of SO_(4)^(2−)/ZrO_(2)by the HTL for algae major model components,including polysaccharides,proteins,lipids,binary mixture and ternary mixture.The results showed that the introducing of SO_(4)^(2−)/ZrO_(2)catalyst could increase the yields of bio-oil from proteins and lipids,and avoid the Maillard reaction between polysaccharides and proteins.Moreover,a possible reaction pathway and mechanisms has proposed for the formation of bio-oils from HTL of algae catalyzed by SO_(4)^(2−)/ZrO_(2)based on the systematic research of the producing bio-oil from major model components.