Agricultural Policy Simulation Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

[Objective] This study aimed to examine the simulated effect of Computable General Equilibrium （CGE）-based agricultural policy simulation system. [Method] The policy simulation platform based on CGE model was constructed by integrating policy simulation, CGE model and Decision Supporting System （DSS）. The scenario analysis method was used to analyze the agricultural subsides policy simulation through empirical analysis. [Result] Farmers were the main beneficiaries of increasing agricultural production subsidies, which increased farmers＇ income and improved the export of agriculture products. The prototype system could solve the problems in actual policy simulation. [Conclusion] The results lay the foundation for the quantitative study on agricultural subsidy policy in China.

Intensity Allocation Criteria of Carbon Emissions Permits and Regional Economic Development in China——Based on a 30-Province/Autonomous Region Computable General Equilibrium Model

The intensity allocation criteria of carbon emissions permits and its influence on China＇s regional development are analyzed through the 30-province/autonomous region computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. Simulation results show that： industrial intensity criteria without taking regional economic development into account deepen the unbalance of regional economic development; regional intensity criteria without taking industrial properties into account exert little negative impact on regional harmonious development, but relatively high negative influence on high-carbon emission industries. The two-step allocation scheme that the central government allocates emissions permits to provincial governments based on regional economic development and then provincial governments allocate emissions permits to emission resources or entities based on industrial properties is a feasible and operable choice.

The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Production in Ethiopia: Application of a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulated the scenarios of agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to the year 2050. At national level, the simulation results suggest that crop production will be adversely affected during the coming four decades and the severity will increase over the time period. Production of teff, maize and sorghum will decline by 25.4, 21.8 and 25.2 percent, respectively by 2050 compared to the base period. Climate change will also cause losses of 31.1 percent agricultural GDP at factor cost by 2050. Climate change affects more the income and consumption of poor rural households than urban rural non-farming households. The reduction in agricultural production will not be evenly distributed across agro ecological zones, and will not all be negative. Among rural residents, climate change impacts tend to hurt the income of the poor more in drought prone regions. Income from labor, land and livestock in moisture sufficient highland cereal-based will decline by 5.1, 8.8 and 15.2 percent in 2050. This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy.

Assessing the Regional Economic Ripple Effect of Flood Disasters Based on a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model Considering Traffic Disruptions

With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately,especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions.This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect.A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system,and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster.The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in2020 in Hubei Province,China.The results show the following.First,when traffic disruption costs are considered,the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before,and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country,such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone(36%of total ripple effects).Second,traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities,especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before.The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation,storage,and postal service(5 times),and processing and assembly manufacturing(4.4 times).Third,the longer the distance,the stronger traffic disruptions'impact on interregional intermediate inputs.Thus,increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.

Comparision of China's volatile organic compound pollution management:a computable general equilibrium approach

The public health and ecological impacts of volatile organic compound(VOCs) pollution have become a serious problem in China,arousing increasing attention to emissions control.In this context,this paper analyses the effectiveness of VOC reduction policies,namely pollution charges and environmental taxes at the national and industrial sector levels.It uses a computable general equilibrium model,which connects macroeconomic variables with VOC emissions inventory,to simulate the effects of policy scenarios(with 2007 as the reference year).This paper shows that VOC emissions are reduced by 2.2% when a pollution charge equal to the average cost of engineering reduction methods-the traditional approach to regulation in China-is applied.In order to achieve a similar reduction,an 8.9% indirect tax would have to be imposed.It concludes that an environmental tax should be the preferred method of VOC regulation due to its smaller footprint on the macroeconomy.Other policies,such as subsidies,should be used as supplements.

A General Equilibrium Model for Energy Policy Evaluation Using GTAP-E for Vietnam

In the past several years, there has been growing concern on the scarcity of energy resources, the volatility of energy prices, and the impact of energy sector on climate change. In this context, energy-environment models designed for analysis of energy systems have become more important. In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium Model （CGE） using an energy-environmental version of Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） model （known as GTAP-E） for Vietnam is presented based on the GTAP Data Base version 7. The model is developed following the original structure and the revised version of the GTAP-E model. This model is used to simulate the adoption of carbon tax for Vietnam for the base year of 2004. The economy-level and detailed sector-specific effects are also examined considering energy intensive and non-intensive sectors. Simulation results show the negative influences of different carbon tax scenarios to Vietnam＇s economy. The results would also indicate the potential of carbon taxation as a driving force for the mitigation of carbon dioxide and for new and renewable energy promotion in Vietnam. In fact, this study is the first simulation exercise of energy-environmental policy for the Vietnamese case.

Impacts of Total Energy Consumption Control and Energy Quota Allocation on China′s Regional Economy Based on A 30-region Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.

Applying Earth Observation Technologies to Economic Consequence Modeling:A Case Study of COVID‑19 in Los Angeles County,California

Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral responses of businesses and the public.We investigated this unique approach to economic consequence modeling to determine whether crowd-sourced interpretations of EO data can be used to illuminate key economic behavioral responses that could be used for computable general equilibrium modeling of supply chain repercussions and resilience effects.We applied our methodology to the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Los Angeles County,California as a case study.We also proposed a dynamic adjustment approach to account for the changing character of EO through longer-term disasters in the economic modeling context.We found that despite limitations,EO data can increase sectoral and temporal resolution,which leads to significant differences from other data sources in terms of direct and total impact results.The findings from this analytical approach have important implications for economic consequence modeling of disasters,as well as providing useful information to policymakers and emergency managers,whose goal is to reduce disaster costs and to improve economic resilience.

CGE Simulation for Levying Carbon Tax in China and International Experience of Levying Carbon Tax

Levying carbon tax is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the environment.The author firstly reviewed some relevant empirical studies on carbon tax both home and abroad,and then established the CGE model and simulated levying carbon tax in China.The study found that levying carbon tax would have little impact on China's economy:in a short-term,China's GDP might decrease by 0.51%,while in a long-term it might decrease by 0.08%;however,the carbon dioxide emissions would be substantially reduced.Meanwhile,levying carbon tax has some negative impact on the output of each industry in the very economic structure;of this,the mineral extractive industries would be influenced the most.Then the author summarized experience of levying carbon tax in foreign countries.

Simulated Scenarios for China＇s Economic Growth： 2011-2030

Considering domestic and international impact on economic growth, this paper adopts a computable general equilibrium （CGE） model to simulate three scenarios for China＇s economic growth. Results indicate that during the 12^th Five-year Plan period （2011：2015）, China＇s economic growth is expected to reach 8 per cent and enjoy great potential for rapid growth in the mid- and long-term run. Future economic growth is mainly confronted by the risk of unbalanced economic development and growing resources and environmental pressures. Whether this potential is in transforming its development pattern. tapped depends on China＇s achievements

Could the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism promote climate mitigation?An economy-wide analysis

Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM have aroused extensive discussion.From the perspective of the economy-wide analysis,this study uses a global computable general equilibrium model to explore the rationality of CBAM from the aspects of socioeconomic impact and the effects of promoting climate mitigation.Furthermore,the potential alternative mechanism of CBAM is proposed.The results show that CBAM can reduce the EU's gross domestic product(GDP)loss;however,the GDP loss in all other regions increases.Moreover,CBAM raises household welfare losses in most regions,including the EU.Second,although CBAM can reduce the marginal abatement cost in eight regions,it comes at the cost of greater economic losses.Furthermore,the economic and household welfare cost of raising emissions reduction targets in regions like the USA and Japan is substantially higher than the impact of passively accepting the CBAM;therefore,CBAM's ability to drive ambitious emission reduction initiatives may be limited.Finally,for the potential alternative mechanism,from the perspective of reducing economic cost and household welfare losses,the EU could implement domestic tax cuts in the short-term and promote global unified carbon pricing in the long-term.

An equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province, China

Global land use structure is changing rapidly due to unceasing population growth and accelerated urbanization, which leads to fierce competition between the rigid demand for built-up area and the protection of cultivated land, forest, and grassland. It has been a great challenge to realize the sustainable development of land resources. Based on a computable general equilibrium model of land use change with a social accounting matrix dataset, this study implemented an equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province during the period of 2008-2020 under three scenarios, the baseline scenario, low TFP （total factor productivity） scenario, and high TFP scenario. The results indicated that under all three scenarios, area of cultivated land declined signifi- cantly along with a remarkable expansion of built-up area, while areas of forest, grassland, and unused land increased slightly. The growth rate of TFP had first negative and then positive effects on the expansion of built-up area and decline of cultivated land as it increased. Moreover, the simulated changes of both cultivated land and built-up area were the biggest under the low TFP scenario, and far exceeded the limit in the Overall Plan for Land Utilization in the Yunnan Province in 2020. The scenario-based simulation results are of important reference value for policy-makers in making land use decisions, balancing the fierce competition between the protection of cultivated land and the increasing demand for built-up area, and guaranteeing food security, ecological security, and the sustainable development of land resources.

Exploring U.S.-China climate cooperation through linked carbon markets

Emissions trading systems(ETSs)are a widely used policy tool for driving emissions reductions and serve as an avenue for international climate cooperation.Following the recent global agreement on carbon market standards at COP26,this study explores linked ETSs as an avenue for the U.S.and China to cooperate on climate action.The emissions,energy,and economic effects of linked ETSs are analyzed through the China-in-Global Energy Model(C-GEM),a multi-regional,computable general equilibrium model.Assuming the development of national economy-wide ETSs,two scenarios are developed linking China and the U.S.:1)a bilateral U.S.-China ETS linkage 2)a multilateral ETS linkage that includes China,the U.S.,and nations in Southeast Asia.Results indicate that emissions and energy consumption outcomes would be similar in the bilateral and multilateral scenarios.However,economic outcomes are more favorable in the multilateral linkage scenario.When China and the U.S.engage in bilateral ETS linkage,China predominantly benefits from additional support for domestic decarbonization while the U.S.benefits from increased GDP compared to without ETS linkage.Adding Southeast Asia to establish multilateral linkage improves GDP outcomes for all participants,reducing adverse effects on China's GDP while boosting GDP for the U.S.and Southeast Asia.For policymakers considering the design and implementation of international ETSs,this study presents updated modeling on the effects of ETS linkage on each country as well as the economic benefits of expanding participation to additional regions.

Prospects for ASEAN-China Free Trade Area:A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

The current global financial and economic crisis is giving new life to initiatives that promote closer economic integration among East Asian countries. A significant example is the ASEAN- China Free Trade Area （.4 CFTA）, which is set to come into effect around 2010..4CFTA aims to boost trade between two economies that are partners as well as competitors： ASEAN and China. In the present paper, we use insights from customs union theory in a qualitative analysis considering whether,4CFTA would benefit both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism regarding A CFTA ＇s prospects as a vehicle for strengthening the economic partnership between ASEAN and China.

China's Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN,Japan and Korea:A Comparative Analysis

The role of China in East Asia ＇s recovery from the recent global finaneial and economic crisis highlights China ＇s position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements （FTAs） with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast-growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China＇s FTAs with East Asian major economies： China-ASEAN, China-Japan, China-Korea and ASEAN＋ 3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China ＂s output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN＋ 3. Because forming a region-wide FTA, such as the ASEAN＋ 3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China shouM continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a mediumterm and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a regionwide FTA.

The Social Welfare Housing Project and Its Effects in China

It was planned to build 36 million units of social welfare housing during the twelve-five2011-2015 in China.This paper introduces the estimation of owner occupied dwelling sector and develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China's real estate and macro-economy,to simulate the policy effects.The simulation results show that this policy can meet the increased requirements of housing demand due to fast urbanization and improvement of living conditions,therefore it will effectively cool down the price boom of housing market.Meanwhile,although the investment on social welfare housing will reduce the investment on other sectors,it will still stimulate GDP growth.

An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement＇s economic and environmental impacts on China

Recently, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea （Korea） are conducting a government-commis- sioned feasibility study on the Free Trade Agreement among the three countries （CJKFTA） to form a regional free trade zone in East Asia. Considering that freer trade can cause unexpected impact on domestic environment, there is a need to evaluate the environmental impact of such a trade policy. This move should be made to help negotiators understand and pay more attention to environ- mental issues during CJKFTA negotiations, and to help lobby with the government to carry out appropriate policy instruments for adaptation or mitigation. Following the Chain Reaction Assessment Method that integrates and links the elements of trade, production, and environment, the present research aims to quantitatively assess CJKFTA＇s possible impact on China＇s environment. This is done by estimating the variations of China＇s major conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases （GHGs） emission in two policy scenarios to represent CJKFTA＇s scale and composition effects on China＇s environment. Estimating the variations is based on a static Computable General Equilibrium model, working with Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） 7 database and China＇s energy- environment statistics. Based on these assessments, CJKFTA is predicted to lead to notable environmental impact, including increased emissions of agricultural total nitrogen, agricultural total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, and GHGs. On the other hand, decreased emissions of industrial SO2 and dust are also expected to happen. Suitable policies need to be made to combat negative effects and amplify positive ones, while aiming at a more sustainable regional freer trade system.