Study on the Variation Characteristics of Precipitation Concentration Degree in Guangxi under the Background of Global Climate Becoming Warm

Based on the daily precipitation data of 87 meteorological observation stations in Guangxi during 1961-2008,the variation characteristics of precipitation concentration degree(PCD) in Guangxi were counted and analyzed by using Monte Carlo test method.The results showed that the climate warming in most areas of Guangxi was very obvious,and the annual precipitation concentration degree increased gradually from the northeast to the southwest in Guangxi.The precipitation concentration period was from the middle of April to the end of August and delayed from the northeast to the southwest in Guangxi.In the background which the global climate became warm,the annual precipitation in most areas of Guangxi had the trend which the precipitation concentrated strengthening.It was said that the probability of flood disaster had the increase trend.The precipitation concentration period had the earlier trend,which was more obvious in the north than in the south of Guangxi.The rainstorm concentration degree in the northwest of Guangxi and few parts had the decrease trend and had the increase trend in other areas.It was said that the probabilities of flood and mud-rock flow disasters increased.The rainstorm concentration periods in most areas had the later trend.

Combination patterns of precipitation and its concentration degree determining the risk of dengue outbreaks in China

The amount and distribution of precipitation can determine dengue risk by affecting mosquito breeding;however,previous studies failed to incorporate this bivariate characteristic to examine dengue fever transmission.In the present research,nationwide data on daily dengue cases in China between January 2005 and December 2020 were obtained,and the top 12 cities accounting for 78%of total cases were selected for analysis.Precipitation patterns were quantified by weekly precipitation and precipitation concentration degree(PCD).On the basis of the combinations of both parameters,the exposure-response relationships of precipitation with dengue risk were established using generalised additive models,and the high-dengue-risk thresholds of precipitation patterns were further identified.Dengue burden was assessed by calculating attributable dengue cases.For the same amount of precipitation,the dispersed precipitation in the pre-summer rainy season leads to a higher dengue risk in autumn.The weekly precipitation of 100-150 mm and PCD of 0.2-0.4 constitute the highest risk scenario,and the average frequency of precipitation associated with dengue risk in 2013-2020 is 1.6 times higher than that in 2005-2012.A total of 3093 attributable dengue cases are identified.From 2005 to 2020,the amount of dispersed precipitation increased in southern and southwestern China and posed high dengue risks in central China.This study has improved the understanding of the health impacts of irregular rainfall under climate change.Our approach to identifying thresholds provides information for early warning systems and helps reduce the risk of dengue transmission in the long run.

The Concentration Degree of Nationwide Rare Earth Industry Increased Significantly

Since the'Twelfth Five Year Plan'period,China has made considerable progress in the organization and setup of large rare earth groups,layout of rare earth industry has become more rational,the concentration degree has increased significantly,the previously small,scattered,and chaotic situation has basically been reversed.

2011-2020年我国医学生分布的区域差异及动态演进

目的研究我国医学生分布的集聚水平、空间分布特征和时空演变趋势,为宏观调控医学高等院校区域均衡发展提供依据。方法运用集聚度、空间自相关模型和核密度估计法分析医学生空间分布情况和发展趋势。结果2011—2020年,我国医学生集聚水平在观察末期升至7.478,涨幅15.43%,呈现“东高西低、南高北低”的空间分布格局。各省份间呈空间正相关性,形成稳定的“高高集聚、低低集聚”的空间分布特征。医学生分布的绝对差异在中部地区趋于缓和,在东、西部地区持续扩大,总体呈多极化演化特征。结论我国医学生分布的集聚水平稳步上升且存在不均衡现象,已形成稳定的聚集区域并存在低流动性。建议构建区域医学高等教育协同发展机制,以促进医学院校资源的优质均衡发展。

CHARACTERISTICS OF RAINFALL VARIATION OVER EAST CHINA FOR THE LAST 50 YEARS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH DROUGHTS AND FLOODS

With the precipitation data of 113 stations in East China during the last 50 years,the characteristics of the precipitation,including Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP) and their tendencies,are analyzed.The results show that the PCD in the northern part of the region is markedly higher than that in the southern part,but the PCP in the south is much earlier than that in the north by about one and a half months,which displays significant regional differences in precipitation.With the global warming,precipitation over East China shows an increasing tendency,but PCD displays a trend that is neither increasing nor decreasing.At the same time,the PCP is later than before,which can be mainly found in Jiangxi and southern Henan provinces.As a result,there are strong associations between the precipitation,PCD and PCP,which can be shown in the years with more precipitation,stronger PCD and later-than-usual PCP.In a word,the abnormal distribution of precipitation,PCP,and PCD over East China results in more extreme events of precipitation and more droughts and floods.

ANALYSIS ON INTRA-ANNUAL INHOMOGENEITY OF RAINSTORM EVENTS IN GUANGXI

Based on the daily precipitation data of 83 stations in Guangxi and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1979 through 2008, the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution and variation of the rainstorm concentration degree(RCD) and the rainstorm concentration period(RCP) are analyzed by using the methods of Monte Carlo test etc. The results are shown as follows. The rainstorm events are concentrated in April-September, taking up about 90% of the yearly rainfall total, and the percentages of rainstorms in the annual total precipitation have an increasing tendency. RCD in the east of Guangxi is larger than that in the west. The RCP in the northeast and southwest of Guangxi is later than that in the other regions, and has the earliest onset in the northern mountainous regions of Baise and southeast Guangxi. The RCD exhibits an increasing tendency in the northwest and the coastal region while showing a decreasing tendency in the other regions. On a long-term basis, the RCP in the east and coastal region has a postponing trend but tends to be earlier in the other regions. The proposed mechanism is as follows: If the geopotential height in the south of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the West Pacific has a highly negative anomaly in winter, the western Pacific subtropical high will be strong in summer, which increases the RCD in Guangxi. If the geopotential height has a highly positive anomaly in winter, the subtropical high will have a significant periodic oscillation in summer, which decreases the RCD in Guangxi. The value of RCD is high(low) in the area of northern mountainous regions of Guangxi and Beihai in strong(weak) South China Sea summer monsoon years, while in the other areas, the value of RCD is low(high).

Analysis on Change Characteristics of PCD and PCP in Beijiang River Basin

Based on the daily precipitation data between 1965 and 2009 from 18 rainfall stations in Guangdong Beijiang River basin and the definitions of Precipitation Concentration Degree(PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period(PCP),the inhomogeneous distribution characteristics of interannual precipitation were analyzed by introducing the spatial distribution of annual mean values,variable coefficients,correlation coefficients between annual precipitation,change trends and composite analysis. The results showed that(1) PCD mainly decreased from south to north in spatial distribution; PCP was earlier in most of north-central basin,but relatively later in southern basin.(2) Annual precipitation would increase if PCD decreased in most of river basin,and annual precipitation would decrease as PCP lagged in southern basin,but the change trend was the opposite in northern basin.(3) PCD and PCP mainly showed insignificant upward trend in the entire basin by Mann-Kendall test.

Analysis of Intra-annual Heterogeneous Characteristics of Precipitation in Shaoguan City

Based on the daily precipitation data between 1965 and 2009 from 8 rainfall stations in Shaoguan City,the indexes of precipitation concentration degree（ PCD） and precipitation concentration period（ PCP） were calculated. And then inverse distance weighted（ IDW） interpolation method was used to analyze the heterogeneous distribution characteristics of inter-annual precipitation by introducing the spatial distribution of annual mean values,variable coefficients,correlation coefficients with annual precipitation,change trends and composite analysis. The results showed that PCD was mainly decreasing from southeast to northwest in spatial distribution,long-term average annual values of PCP were distributed in the first ten days of June at most region. Annual precipitation increased as PCD increased in southern region,but the change trend was the opposite in northern region. Annual precipitation increased as PCP lagged in most region. PCD and PCP mainly appeared upward trend. Composite analysis of PCD in more-precipitation years was similar to less-precipitation years in spatial distribution,but the PCD in less-precipitation years was higher.Seen from the mean in the whole region,PCP in more-precipitation years lagged about 20 days behind those in less-precipitation years. The research can provide basis for the production of agriculture and industry as well as disaster prevention and reduction.

Quantitative research of annual runoff distribution characteristics in the Dagujia River basin,Yantai,China

Mann-Kendall method and minimum variance method are used in this study to analyze the mean value variable-point of the runoff data observed by Fushan Hydrological Station in the Dagujia River basin from 1966 to 2004. Based on the results, the runoff time is divided into four periods with the similar hydrological variation character. The annual runoff distribution characters in the Dagujia River basin are discussed by using the non-uniform coefficients, concentration degree and concentration period, variation range, etc. The results indicate that: (1) River runoff is very unevenly distributed throughout the year in Dagujia River. About 90% of runoff is in the period from June to October, while the runoff from November to April of the next year is lower. (2) The annual runoff distribution characters during 1966-1971 are very similar to that of 1982-1996, and the runoff of 1972-1981 is almost similar to that of 1997-2004. (3) The annual runoff distribution characters have changed obviously during 1997-2004 compared with the other periods, which makes it more difficult to exploit and use the water resource in the future.

Understanding the pattern and mechanism of spatial concentration of urban land use, population and economic activities: a case study in Wuhan, China

Quantifying the aggregation patterns of urban population, economic activities, and land use are essential for understanding compact development, but little is known about the difference among the distribution characteristics and how the built environment influences urban aggre-gation. In this study, five elements are collected in Wuhan, China, namely population density, floor area ratio, business POIs, road network and built-up area as the representative of urban population, economic activities and land use. An inverse S-shape function is employed to fit the elements’ macro distribution. An aggregation degree index is proposed to measure the aggregation level of urban elements. The kernel density estimation is used to identify the aggregation patterns. The spatial regression model is used to identify the built environment factors influencing the spatial distribution of urban elements. Results indicates that all urban elements decay outward from the city center in an inverse S-shape manner. The business Pointof- Interest (POI) density and population density are highly aggregated;floor area ratio and road density are moderately aggregated, whereas the built-up density is poorly aggregated. Three types of spatial aggregation patterns are identified: a point-shaped pattern, an axial pattern and a planar pattern. The spatial regression modeling shows that the built environment is associated with the distribution of the urban population, economic activities and land use. Destination accessibility factors, transit accessibility factors and land use diversity factors shape the distribution of the business POI density, floor area ratio and road density. Design factors are positively associated with population density, floor area ratio and built-up density. Future planning should consider the varying spatial concentration of urban population, economic activities and land use as well as their relationships with built environment attributes. Results of this study will provide a systematic understanding of aggregation of urban land use, popula-tion, and economic activities in megacities as well as some suggestions for planning and compact development.

A graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity in China

Precipitation heterogeneity has a nontrivial influence on human life. Many studies have analyzed precipitation heterogeneity but none have proposed a systematic graded index for its evaluation, and therefore, its true characteristics have not been expressed. After comparisons of various methods, the precipitation concentration degree(PCD) method was selected to study precipitation heterogeneity. In addition to the PCD, normal distribution functions, cumulative frequencies, and percentiles were used to establish a graded index for evaluating precipitation heterogeneity. A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation heterogeneity was performed, and its spatiotemporal variation in China from 1960 to 2013 was analyzed. The results indicated that(1) seven categories of precipitation heterogeneity were identified(high centralization, moderate centralization, mild centralization, normal, mild dispersion, moderate dispersion, and high dispersion) and(2) during the study period, the precipitation in more parts of China tended to be normal or dispersed, which is beneficial to human activities.

Inhomogeneity characteristics of snow in Northeast China

Based on 1961-2005 observed winter precipitation data in Northeast China, the temporal and spatial variations of snow concentration degree （SCD） and snow concentration period （SCP）, together with the circulation characteristics when there is a higher SCD, are computed and analyzed. Results show that SCD in Northeast China presents a yearly rising tendency and SCP decreases obviously. In terms of decadal variation, there is a 12-year periodic variation in PCP, and since the mid-1970s there has been an 8-year short periodic variation. As to spatial variation, SCD in winter of Northeast China has increased gradually from the eastern part to the western, and the minimum value of SCD occurs in the east of Jilin Province, while the high value center is observed in the central part of the province. For the whole Northeast China, the variation tendencies are consistent in the eastern and central parts, where SCD presents a rising tendency and SCP shows a decreasing tendency. SCD in the southwestern and northern parts has a slight rising tendency, with SCD in the southwestern part having the slightest increasing tendency, and SCP in the northern part showing the slightest decreasing tendency. When a high SCD value is observed, the whole region is controlled by the East Asian deep trough at 500 hPa, and the trough becomes deeper in the western part, while a high pressure, which is easily formed and intensified in the eastern part, makes the East Asian deep trough move eastward slowly. Upper-level jet stream and low-level jet stream co-exist, and the former is stronger and takes more of a southwestward position than the latter. The high value zone of water vapor transport over the Pacific is intensified obviously, and the extent also increases. Northeast China is influenced by the water vapor transported to the northwest along the north of the high value center.