The consumer price index (CPI) measures the relative number of changes in the price level of consumer goods and services over time, reflecting the trend and degree of changes in the price level of goods and services p...The consumer price index (CPI) measures the relative number of changes in the price level of consumer goods and services over time, reflecting the trend and degree of changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by residents. This article uses the ARMA model to analyze the fluctuation trend of the CPI (taking Chongqing as an example) and make short-term predictions. To test the predictive performance of the model, the observation values from January to December 2023 were retained as the reference object for evaluating the predictive accuracy of the model. Finally, through trial predictions of the data from May to August 2023, it was found that the constructed model had good fitting performance.展开更多
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an important indicator used to determine inflation. The main objective of this research was to compare the forecasting ability of two time-series models using Zambia Monthly Consumer Pric...Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an important indicator used to determine inflation. The main objective of this research was to compare the forecasting ability of two time-series models using Zambia Monthly Consumer Price Index. We used monthly CPI data which were collected from January 2003 to December 2017. The models that were compared are the Autoregressive Integrated Moving average (ARIMA) model and Multicointegration (ECM) model. Results show that the ECM was the best fit model of CPI in Zambia since it showed smallest errors measures. Lastly, a forecast was done using the ECM and results show an average growth rate for food CPI at 6.63% and an average growth rate for nonfood CPI at 7.41%. Forecasting CPI is an important factor for any economy because it is essential in economic planning for the future. Hence, identifying a more accurate forecasting model is a major contribution to the development of Zambia.展开更多
India is an agricultural country and a core source of income for the world population.The Indian economy is greatly depending on agriculture that is decrease day by day due to pandemic COVID-19.India is a major export...India is an agricultural country and a core source of income for the world population.The Indian economy is greatly depending on agriculture that is decrease day by day due to pandemic COVID-19.India is a major exporter of many crop foods.India,Thailand,and Vietnam are the major exports of rice if these stopped exports it reduces the economy up to 15%.A related circumstance is built up with diverse yields too like wheat,sunflower whose fare has been stationary by Kazakhstan,Serbia individually.In India,the end of April is the main source of income to farmers because they sell their rabi crops(wheat,mustard,maize,lentil,chilies,gram,tomatoes)in the market drastically decreases of CFPI may lead to the distress of Indian agricultural economy.The change over time in the price of options on wheat futures reveals increased price volatility in response to growing uncertainty about the COVID-19 impacts.展开更多
Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial chains.China’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production ...Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial chains.China’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production chains.The question is how the changing length of production chains will affect CPI and PPI,as well as CPI-PPI correlation?By constructing a global input-output price model,this paper offers a theoretical discussion on the impact of production chain length on the CPI-PPI divergence.Our findings suggest that the price shock of international bulk commodities has a greater impact on China’s PPI than that on CPI.The effects on both China’s PPI and CPI estimated by using the single-country input-output model are higher than the results estimated with the global input-output model.However,the difference between CPI and PPI variations estimated with the global input-output model is greater than the result estimated with the single-country input-output model,which supports the view that the lengthening of production chains,especially international production chains,leads to a divergence between CPI and PPI.Empirical results based on cross-national panel data also suggest that the lengthening of production chains has reduced the CPI-PPI correlation for countries,i.e.the lengthening of production chains has increased the PPI-CPI divergence.That is to say,policymakers should target not just CPI in maintaining price stability,but instead focus on the stability of both PPI and CPI.Efforts can be made to proactively adjust the price index system,and formulate the industrial chain price index.展开更多
There is no clear theory which states fixed relationship between inflation and growth.Controversy by quantity and institutional inflation theories also confirm this.According to quantity theorists,there is a long-run ...There is no clear theory which states fixed relationship between inflation and growth.Controversy by quantity and institutional inflation theories also confirm this.According to quantity theorists,there is a long-run trade-off between inflation and economic growth but the supporters of institutional theory of inflation,are less sure about presence of negative relationship about inflation and growth.Thus,the relationship between inflation and economic growth is debatable both in the world and specifically to Ethiopia.Therefore,the objective of this critical review is to determine the relationship between the current status of the Ethiopian economy and the consumer price index by considering the economic development indictors and consumer price index.The nexus of inflation and economic growth is one of the most important macroeconomic policy problems that take the attention of researchers,policy makers and different scholars.Conducting this review will benefit developing countries by discovering what their current status is,as far as a person with a higher level of consumption is regarded as having a higher level of economic wellbeing than someone with a lower level of consumption.This study falls within the ambit of the pragmatism philosophical stance and exploratory in nature.This study applied the inductive method of reasoning and used secondary data.The Study found that there is a negative relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer(consumer price index)synonymously measured by the inflation-macroeconomic growth trade-off.The review reveals that Ethiopian economy is highly growing and the consumer price index(purchasing power of consumers)is decreasing.This shows that the purchasing power consumer(consumer price index)in Ethiopia is not solely determined by the macroeconomic development,which in turn requires further investigation.It is recommended therefore that future research works will explore more on the relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer or clearly can explore the effect of economic growth on the purchasing power of consumers(consumer price index).展开更多
In this paper,we use the macro data from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2015,through vector autoregressive(VAR)model,Granger causality analysis,impulse response function(RFI)and variance decompositi...In this paper,we use the macro data from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2015,through vector autoregressive(VAR)model,Granger causality analysis,impulse response function(RFI)and variance decomposition analysis of quantitative analysis methods,to research on the relationship among China’s real growth variation of gross domestic product(GDP),Money supply growth rate and consumer price index.We find that the money supply growth has impact on China’s real growth variation of GDP in short-term,but there is no long-term significant effect.Economic growth is the main factor to promote the consumer price index growth,money growth is not the main factor driving the change in the price index.China’s currency growth is affected significantly by the change of the economic growth.展开更多
文摘The consumer price index (CPI) measures the relative number of changes in the price level of consumer goods and services over time, reflecting the trend and degree of changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by residents. This article uses the ARMA model to analyze the fluctuation trend of the CPI (taking Chongqing as an example) and make short-term predictions. To test the predictive performance of the model, the observation values from January to December 2023 were retained as the reference object for evaluating the predictive accuracy of the model. Finally, through trial predictions of the data from May to August 2023, it was found that the constructed model had good fitting performance.
文摘Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an important indicator used to determine inflation. The main objective of this research was to compare the forecasting ability of two time-series models using Zambia Monthly Consumer Price Index. We used monthly CPI data which were collected from January 2003 to December 2017. The models that were compared are the Autoregressive Integrated Moving average (ARIMA) model and Multicointegration (ECM) model. Results show that the ECM was the best fit model of CPI in Zambia since it showed smallest errors measures. Lastly, a forecast was done using the ECM and results show an average growth rate for food CPI at 6.63% and an average growth rate for nonfood CPI at 7.41%. Forecasting CPI is an important factor for any economy because it is essential in economic planning for the future. Hence, identifying a more accurate forecasting model is a major contribution to the development of Zambia.
文摘India is an agricultural country and a core source of income for the world population.The Indian economy is greatly depending on agriculture that is decrease day by day due to pandemic COVID-19.India is a major exporter of many crop foods.India,Thailand,and Vietnam are the major exports of rice if these stopped exports it reduces the economy up to 15%.A related circumstance is built up with diverse yields too like wheat,sunflower whose fare has been stationary by Kazakhstan,Serbia individually.In India,the end of April is the main source of income to farmers because they sell their rabi crops(wheat,mustard,maize,lentil,chilies,gram,tomatoes)in the market drastically decreases of CFPI may lead to the distress of Indian agricultural economy.The change over time in the price of options on wheat futures reveals increased price volatility in response to growing uncertainty about the COVID-19 impacts.
基金the Special Project of the National Science Foundation of China(NSFC)“Open Development of China’s Trade and Investment:Basic Patterns,Overall Effects,and the Dual Circulations Paradigm”(Grant No.72141309)NSFC General Project“GVC Restructuring Effect of Emergent Public Health Incidents:Based on the General Equilibrium Model Approach of the Production Networks Structure”(Grant No.72073142)+1 种基金NSFC General Project“China’s Industrialization Towards Mid-and High-End Value Chains:Theoretical Implications,Measurement and Analysis”(Grant No.71873142)the Youth project of The National Social Science Fund of China“Research on the green and low-carbon development path and policy optimization of China’s foreign trade under the goal of‘dual carbon’”(Grant No.22CJY019).
文摘Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial chains.China’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production chains.The question is how the changing length of production chains will affect CPI and PPI,as well as CPI-PPI correlation?By constructing a global input-output price model,this paper offers a theoretical discussion on the impact of production chain length on the CPI-PPI divergence.Our findings suggest that the price shock of international bulk commodities has a greater impact on China’s PPI than that on CPI.The effects on both China’s PPI and CPI estimated by using the single-country input-output model are higher than the results estimated with the global input-output model.However,the difference between CPI and PPI variations estimated with the global input-output model is greater than the result estimated with the single-country input-output model,which supports the view that the lengthening of production chains,especially international production chains,leads to a divergence between CPI and PPI.Empirical results based on cross-national panel data also suggest that the lengthening of production chains has reduced the CPI-PPI correlation for countries,i.e.the lengthening of production chains has increased the PPI-CPI divergence.That is to say,policymakers should target not just CPI in maintaining price stability,but instead focus on the stability of both PPI and CPI.Efforts can be made to proactively adjust the price index system,and formulate the industrial chain price index.
文摘There is no clear theory which states fixed relationship between inflation and growth.Controversy by quantity and institutional inflation theories also confirm this.According to quantity theorists,there is a long-run trade-off between inflation and economic growth but the supporters of institutional theory of inflation,are less sure about presence of negative relationship about inflation and growth.Thus,the relationship between inflation and economic growth is debatable both in the world and specifically to Ethiopia.Therefore,the objective of this critical review is to determine the relationship between the current status of the Ethiopian economy and the consumer price index by considering the economic development indictors and consumer price index.The nexus of inflation and economic growth is one of the most important macroeconomic policy problems that take the attention of researchers,policy makers and different scholars.Conducting this review will benefit developing countries by discovering what their current status is,as far as a person with a higher level of consumption is regarded as having a higher level of economic wellbeing than someone with a lower level of consumption.This study falls within the ambit of the pragmatism philosophical stance and exploratory in nature.This study applied the inductive method of reasoning and used secondary data.The Study found that there is a negative relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer(consumer price index)synonymously measured by the inflation-macroeconomic growth trade-off.The review reveals that Ethiopian economy is highly growing and the consumer price index(purchasing power of consumers)is decreasing.This shows that the purchasing power consumer(consumer price index)in Ethiopia is not solely determined by the macroeconomic development,which in turn requires further investigation.It is recommended therefore that future research works will explore more on the relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer or clearly can explore the effect of economic growth on the purchasing power of consumers(consumer price index).
文摘In this paper,we use the macro data from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2015,through vector autoregressive(VAR)model,Granger causality analysis,impulse response function(RFI)and variance decomposition analysis of quantitative analysis methods,to research on the relationship among China’s real growth variation of gross domestic product(GDP),Money supply growth rate and consumer price index.We find that the money supply growth has impact on China’s real growth variation of GDP in short-term,but there is no long-term significant effect.Economic growth is the main factor to promote the consumer price index growth,money growth is not the main factor driving the change in the price index.China’s currency growth is affected significantly by the change of the economic growth.
