The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an ...The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.展开更多
August consumer price ndex （CPI） data has spurred heated debate on whether China is experiencing inflation. A CPI increase of 5.6% is an uncomfortable level for any major economy. In the US, the core line is set a...August consumer price ndex （CPI） data has spurred heated debate on whether China is experiencing inflation. A CPI increase of 5.6% is an uncomfortable level for any major economy. In the US, the core line is set at 2.5%, and in Europe it is 2%.展开更多
Despite consumer inflation figures hitting 5.6% in July - a 1o-year high - few analysts are showing major concerns. Most analysts whom CIB spoke with said that the moderately high rates of bank loans and fixed asset i...Despite consumer inflation figures hitting 5.6% in July - a 1o-year high - few analysts are showing major concerns. Most analysts whom CIB spoke with said that the moderately high rates of bank loans and fixed asset investment are better signals of the overall health of the Chinese economy than the inflation rate, which is largely cyclical.展开更多
The labor market is important to the economy,as reflected by its impact on economic performance and the government’s decision-making process for related policies.Take the United States,for example, in which the unemp...The labor market is important to the economy,as reflected by its impact on economic performance and the government’s decision-making process for related policies.Take the United States,for example, in which the unemployment rate maintained a steady decline from 8.9 percent in 2011 to 6.2 percent in 2014.展开更多
Inflation Indexes China’s consumer prices grew 1.4percent in 2015 from one year earlier,below the government’s 3-percen cap set for the year,according to data released by National Bureau of Statistics（NBS）on Janua...Inflation Indexes China’s consumer prices grew 1.4percent in 2015 from one year earlier,below the government’s 3-percen cap set for the year,according to data released by National Bureau of Statistics（NBS）on January 9.The growth in the consumer price index（CPI）,the main gauge of inflation,was also below the2-percent increase registered in2014.展开更多
文摘The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.
文摘August consumer price ndex （CPI） data has spurred heated debate on whether China is experiencing inflation. A CPI increase of 5.6% is an uncomfortable level for any major economy. In the US, the core line is set at 2.5%, and in Europe it is 2%.
文摘Despite consumer inflation figures hitting 5.6% in July - a 1o-year high - few analysts are showing major concerns. Most analysts whom CIB spoke with said that the moderately high rates of bank loans and fixed asset investment are better signals of the overall health of the Chinese economy than the inflation rate, which is largely cyclical.
文摘The labor market is important to the economy,as reflected by its impact on economic performance and the government’s decision-making process for related policies.Take the United States,for example, in which the unemployment rate maintained a steady decline from 8.9 percent in 2011 to 6.2 percent in 2014.
文摘Inflation Indexes China’s consumer prices grew 1.4percent in 2015 from one year earlier,below the government’s 3-percen cap set for the year,according to data released by National Bureau of Statistics（NBS）on January 9.The growth in the consumer price index（CPI）,the main gauge of inflation,was also below the2-percent increase registered in2014.
