Forecast of natural gas supply and demand in China under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”

As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3)) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3), including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m^(3)shale gas, and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.

Research Progress in the Petroleum and Natural Gas Geological Theory of China

The Chinese landmass, as a composite region, consists of multiple small continental blocks, such as Sino-Korea, Yangtze, Tarim, etc., and orogenic belts. Because of its distinctive tectono-sedimentary evolution, China＇s oil/gas-bearing regions differ remarkably from that elsewhere in the world. For instance, in comparison to the Middle East oil/gas-bearing regions which are characterized by Mesozoic-Cenozoic marine oil/gas-bearing beds, early oil and gas discoveries in China are distributed mainly in Mesozoic-Cenozoic continental sedimentary basins. Generation of oil from terrestrial organic matter, or terrestrial oil generation, and the formation of large oil/gas fields in continental sedimentary basins were previously the major characteristics of petroleum geology of China. However, in the past 20 years, a series of major oil and gas discoveries from marine strata have been made. Marine oil/gas fields in China are mainly distributed in the Tarim, Sichuan, and Ordos basins, which are tectonically stable and covered with Mesozoic-Cenozoic deposits. In these basins, hydrocarbon-bearing strata are of old age and the oil/gas fields are commonly deeply-buried. Cumulatively, 995 oil/gas fields have been found so far, making China the fourth largest oil-producing country and the sixth largest gas-producing country in the world. In terms of petroleum and natural gas geology, theories of hydrocarbon generation from continental strata, such as terrestrial oil generation and coal-generated hydrocarbons, etc., have been established. Significant progress has been made in research on the sequence stratigraphy of continental strata, formation mechanisms of ultra-deep clastic reservoirs, and hydrocarbon accumulation in the continental subtle reservoir. Regarding research on the marine petroleum geology of China, with respect to the major characteristics, such as deeply-buried reservoirs, old strata, and multiple phases of transformation, important advances have been made, in areas such as the multiple-elements of hydrocarbon supply, formation of reservoirs jointly controlled by deposition, tectonic activities, and diagenetic fluid-rock reactions, and oil/gas reservoirs formed through superimposed multi-stage hydrocarbon accumulation. As more and more unconventional hydrocarbon resources are discovered, unconventional oil and gas reservoirs are under study by Chinese petroleum geologists, who endeavor to come up with new discoveries on their formation mechanisms.

Analysis of Driving Factors of Natural Gas Consumption in China: Based on Regional Integration and LMDI Method

In recent years,China has developed rapidly in terms of natural gas.Driven by regional economic integration,a regional natural gas market composed of neighboring provinces and cities has taken shape gradually,and it tends to grow toward the same direction in policy formulation,resource coordination,facility construction and market expansion.Based on the factors such as geographical location,economic conditions and natural gas consumption,this thesis tends to conduct a horizontal comparative analysis on the economic development conditions,natural gas consumption characteristics and natural gas pipeline network density of the three regions with obvious regional integration feature in China.Then according to LMDI,four core indicators,namely economic growth effect,energy intensity effect,energy structure effect,and substitution effect are selected.The thesis is expected to explore the contribution of different indicators to the growth of natural gas consumption in these three different regions.According to the results,it can be concluded that the driving factors of natural gas consumption differ greatly among regions.Specifically speaking,the more developed the economy is,the greater the contribution of the energy substitution effect to natural gas consumption will be,and the contribution of the economic growth effect to natural gas consumption will be smaller.Despite that the contribution of energy intensity in different regions shows slight difference,the energy structure contributes the least effect,which further explains the current differences in China’s natural gas consumption characteristics and the reasons behind.

Basic Engineering of a Two-Stage Process for Co-Upgrading Natural Gas and Petroleum Coke

This communication highlights the possibility of using a novel two-stage process for the co-upgrading of natural gas and petroleum coke into liquid hydrocarbons. The first stage consists of the catalytic dehydroaromatization of methane characterized by producing hydrogen and aromatics: benzene, naphtalene, toluene, etc. The non-reacted methane plus hydrogen and aromatics produced in the first stage are directed to the second stage to react with the petroleum coke. Basic engineering analysis of proposed two-stage process suggests light petroleum production of 160,000 bbl/day from 20,000 ton/day of petroleum coke actually by-produced from Venezuelan Orinoco’s heavy oil belt. Residual coke should be volatiles free therefore useful as a calcined coke.

Geology and hydrocarbon accumulations in the deepwater of the northwestern South China Sea——with focus on natural gas

The deepwater of the northwestern South China Sea is located in the central to southern parts of the Qiongdongnan Basin （QDN Basin）, which is a key site for hydrocarbon exploration in recent years. In this study, the authors did a comprehensive analysis of gravity-magnetic data, extensive 3D seismic survey, cores and cuttings, paleontology and geochemical indexes, proposed the mechanism of natural gas origin, identified different oil and gas systems, and established the model of hydrocarbon accumulations in the deep-water region. Our basin tectonic simulation indicates that the evolution of QDN Basin was controlled by multiple-phased tectonic movements, such as Indochina-Eurasian Plate collision, Tibetan Uplift, Red River faulting and the expansion of the South China Sea which is characterized by Paleogene rifting, Neogene depression, and Eocene intensive faulting and lacustrine deposits. The drilling results show that this region is dominated by marine- terrestrial transitional and neritic-bathyal facies from the early Oligocene. The Yacheng Formation of the early Oligocene is rich in organic matter and a main gas-source rock. According to the geological-geochemical data from the latest drilling wells, Lingshui, Baodao, Changchang Sags have good hydrocarbon-generating potentials, where two plays from the Paleogene and Neogene reservoirs were developed. Those reservoirs occur in central canyon structural-lithologic trap zone, Changchang marginal trap zone and southern fault terrace of Baodao Sag. Among them, the central canyon trap zone has a great potential for exploration because the various reservoir- forming elements are well developed, i.e., good coal-measure source rocks, sufficient reservoirs from the Neogene turbidity sandstone and submarine fan, faults connecting source rock and reservoirs, effective vertical migration, late stage aggregation and favorable structural-lithological composite trapping. These study results provide an important scientific basis for hydrocarbon exploration in this region, evidenced by the recent discovery of the significant commercial LS-A gas field in the central canyon of the Lingshui Sag.

Analysis of the supply-demand status of China's natural gas to 2020

The reserves, distribution, production and utilization of natural gas resources in China are introduced in this paper which leads a point of view that China＇s natural gas resources are relatively rich while distributed unevenly. The future production and consumption of China＇s natural gas are predicted using the Generalized Weng model and the Gray prediction model. The prediction suggests that with the increasing gas consumption China＇s natural gas production will not meet demand after 2010. In order to ease the supply-demand gap and realize rational development and utilization of China＇s natural gas resources, this paper puts forward some measures, such as using advanced technologies for natural gas development, establishing a long-distance pipeline network to rationalize the availability of natural gas across China and importing foreign natural gas and liquid natural gas （LNG）.

Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method

Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.

Simulation and energy performance assessment of CO_2 removal from crude synthetic natural gas via physical absorption process

The paper presents an energy performance assessment of CO2 removal for crude synthetic natural gas （SNG） upgrade by Selexol absorption process. A simplified process simulation of the Selexol process concerning power requirement and separation performance was developed. The assessment indicates that less pressure difference between crude SNG and absorption pressure favors the energy performance of CO2 removal process. When both crude SNG and absorption pressures are 20 bar, CO2 removal process has the best energy performance. The optimal specific power consumption of the CO2 removal process is 566 kJ/kgCO2. The sensitivity analysis shows that the CO2 removal efficiency would significantly influence the total power consumption of the removal process, as well as higher heating value （HHV） and CO2 content in SNG. However, the specific power consumption excluding crude SNG and SNG compressions changes little with the variance of CO2 removal efficiency. If by-product CO2 is compressed for CO2 capture, the process would turn into a CO2-sink for the atmosphere. Correspondingly, an increase of 281 kJ/kgCO2 in specific power consumption is required for compressing the separated CO2.

Current State and Prospect of China Natural Gas Industry

Natural gas output remained stable growth and reached 130.9 billion cubic meters in 2015, 3% higher than the same period last year. Shale gas saw huge progress. China titus became the third country in the world fu!filling commercial development after U.S. attd Canada. Natural gas import growth and growth rate declined obviously, and the imported pipeline gas and LNG totaled 61.2 billion cubic meters in 2015. Apparent natural gas consumption was 186.5 billion cubic meters in 2015, rising by 4.4% as compared with the same period last year, but it hit a historic low. There is higher dozonward pressure on domestic macro economy in 2016. However, natural gas demand will see more rapid growth, propelled by such favorable factors as gas price regulation and environmental protection policies. It is prospected that natural gas market will take a turn for the better than in 2015, and natural gas supply will still be rich in general in 2016.

Development Status and Prospects of the Natural Gas Industry in China

The year 2017 saw explosive growth in China's natural gas market, and the apparent consumption was 235.7 billion cubic meters, up 18.2% over the same period of 2016. In 2017, China's domestic production growth picked up significantly, reaching 145.3 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9%.Natural gas imports grew rapidly, and imported pipeline gas and imported LNG totaled 91.6 billion cubic meters. The trade volume of LNG surpassed that of pipeline gas for the first time since 2012. In 2018, the macro-economy is expected to maintain growth at a moderate-to-high rate. However, driven by favorable factors such as environmental policies, China's demand for natural gas is expected to continue to grow rapidly, and natural gas consumption will maintain double-digit growth, roughly at 12%. Nevertheless, the seasonable imbalance between natural gas supply and demand will remain conspicuous.

Current Status and Development Trend of Natural Gas Industry in China

In China, the proven reserves of natural gas is 3.86 trillion cubic meters (tcm). This figure will quite possibly increase at a high speed in the future. At present, the annual production of natural gas has exceeded 34 billion cubic meters (bcm), which, likewise, will rise sharply. The pipeline construction has basically taken shape, which will be gradually perfected. And the gas consumption market is in the startup stage, which will be rapidly expanded in the quite near future.

A review of Baosteel's development of steel for oil and natural gas

The development of oil and natural gas steel products at Baosteel over the past two decades is reviewed in this paper. After years of researching and developing steel products that are used in the energy industry such as drilling, exploitation, collection, transportation, and the storage of oil and natural gas, the system of composition and manufacturing techniques for Baosteel＇ s oil and natural gas steel products have been established. The oil and natural gas steel products of Baosteel consist of two major categories： the oil country tubular goods（OCTG） used underground, and the pipes used for pipeline construction on the ground. Currently, the product quality has maintained stability, and the related products have been extensively used worldwide for the exploration and transportation of oil and natural gas.

Current Situation and Prospects of the Development of China’s Natural Gas Industry

In 2018,China's natural gas market reached a new level of development,with apparent consumption of 280.3 billion m3,up by 18.1%over the same period in the previous year.Domestic production grew steadily,reaching 157 billion m3,up by 7.2%over the same period in the previous year.Natural gas imports grew rapidly,with imports of pipeline gas and LNG totalling 124.2 billion m3.In terms of trade types,imports of LNG continue to exceed those of pipeline gas.In 2019,there has been downward pressure on the macro economy,and the development of the main gas sector has slowed down.Driven by environmental protection policies,the natural gas market continues to maintain rapid growth.However,it is difficult for the levels of increment and growth to reach those of the previous two years,and the growth rate of market demand is predicted to reach 10.7%.

Review on the Development of Oil and Gas Flow in Underground Porous Media

Through reviewing the flow theory’s birth and development history in underground porous media and contrasting the mechanics of underground fluids and mechanics of viscous fluids, this paper points out the main factors, which affect the development of the theory on oil and gas porous flow. The development law and development route of the mechanics of fluids in porous media are also summarized in this paper.

Forecasting China’s natural gas consumption based on a combination model

Ensuring a sufficient energy supply is essential to a country. Natural gas constitutes a vital part in energy supply and therefore forecasting natural gas consumption reliably and accurately is an essential part of a country＇s energy policy. Over the years, studies have shown that a combinative model gives better projected results compared to a single model. In this study, we used Polynomial Curve and Moving Average Combination Projection （PCMACP） model to estimate the future natural gas consumption in China from 2009 to 2015. The new proposed PCMACP model shows more reliable and accurate results： its Mean Absolute Percentage Error （MAPE） is less than those of any previous models within the investigated range. According to the PCMACP model, the average annual growth rate will increase for the next 7 years and the amount of natural gas consumption will reach 171600 million cubic meters in 2015 in China.

Natural gas consumption forecasting model based on coal-to-gas project in China

Natural gas is widely used because it is environmentally friendly,particularly in reducing carbon emission and improving the Air Quality Index(AQI)around densely populated cities.China has initiated a coal-to-gas project(CGP)to improve the air quality in northern China.As a subcompany of China National Petroleum Corporation,PetroChina Natural Gas Marketing North Company has been focusing on natural gas resource allocation while considering numerous issues such as ensuring the bottom line of livelihood requirements in winter and the performance of economic indicators for an entire calendar year in the northern part of China.Therefore,the accurate prediction of natural gas consumption is important to PetroChina Natural Gas Marketing North Company.It has become a challenge to forecast natural gas consumption because the natural gas market has changed considerably because of the CGP.Natural gas consumption cannot be forecasted using conventional models.This study analyzes the characteristics of the CGP based on the data obtained from rural individual users and company users.Based on the analysis,the gas consumption in winter is predicted using two different forecasting approaches.The methods presented in this paper provide a basis for formulating effective measures for natural gas scheduling in the northern part of China.

A Critical Analysis of Natural Gas Liquefaction Technology

Liquefied natural gas(LNG)is an important energy source and occupies an important proportion in natural gas consumption,therefore,the selection of appropriate liquefaction processes and related optimization should be seen as subjects of great importance.Accordingly,in the present review,we provide a comparative and critical analysis of the current status of natural gas liquefaction technology through examination of the advantages and disadvantages associated with three natural gas liquefaction processes(namely,the cascade liquefaction cycle,the expander-based cycle and the mixed refrigerant cycle).It is shown that the energy consumption related to the cascade refrigeration cycle is the lowest.Compared with it,the mixed refrigerant cycle has the advantages of being a simpler process,with less units,low investment cost and low requirements in terms of refrigerant purity.The expander-based cycle can be started and stopped quickly and simply,but the power consumption is relatively high.

One-step solvothermal synthesis of indium oxide as liquefied petroleum gas sensor

A liquefied petroleum gas （LPG） sensor with high selectivity, sensitivity and low power consumption has been developed based on indium oxide with very low resistance. Nanocrystalline In203 gas sensing materials were directly synthesized through a one-step controllable solvothermal process at 210 ℃ for 24 h, using InCI3.4H2O as the starting material, cetyltrimethyl ammonium bromide （CTAB） as additive and ethanol as the solvent. The obtained samples were characterized by X-ray diffraction （XRD）, and transmission electron microscopy （TEM）. The results showed that indium oxide takes on uniform cubic shape with range size of 10~30 nm and fine dispersivity. Gas sensitivity was measured in a mixing static gas. The results indicated that 3.0 V is the best working voltage of the sensor to LPG. Sensitivity is 12.6. The response-time and recovery-time are 3 s and 10 s respectively. Power consumption is only around 200 mW.

The Effect of Gas Production, Utilization, and Flaring on the Economic Growth of Nigeria

The extent to which a country develops is anchored around its resources;and this is evidenced in how the revenue derived from natural resources (especially the oil and gas industries) has influenced national development strategies. This notwithstanding, the existence of natural resources does not always translate to development, as these often times lead to complacency and mismanagement;Nigeria may have suffered from this. This paper establishes the impact of gas production, utilization, and flaring on the estimated monetary value of the goods and services produced in Nigeria (GDP), using multiple linear regression analysis. The result shows that while gas utilization has a positive impact on the nation’s GDP, gas production and flaring are negatively associated with GDP. The paper concludes that for these to positively stimulate economic growth, there is need to invest more in infrastructure in the industry, and review the regulatory framework guiding operations of the oil and gas industry.