The dynamic forecast method of convective vorticity vector

In this paper we introduce the convective vorticity vector and its application in the forecast and diagnosis of rainstorm.Convective vorticity vector is a parameter of vector field,different from scalar field,it contains more important information of physical quantities,so it could not be replaced.Considering the irresistible importance of vector field we will introduce the theory of vector field and its dynamic forecast method.With the convective vorticity vector and its vertical component's tendency equation,diagnostic analysis on the heavy-rainfall event caused by landfall typhoon“Morakot”in the year 2009 is conducted.The result shows that,the abnormal values of convective vorticity vector always changes with the development of the observed precipitation region,and their horizontal distribution is quite similar.Analysis reveals a certain correspondence between the convective vorticity vector and the observed 6-h accumulated surface rainfall,they are significantly related.The convective vorticity vector is capable of describing the typical vertical structure of dynamical and thermodynamic fields of precipitation system,so it is closely related to the occurrence and development of precipitation system and could have certain relation with the surface rainfall regions.

Diagnosis of dynamic process over rainband of landfall typhoon

This paper introduces a new physical parameter -- thermodynamic shear advection parameter combining the perturbation vertical component of convective vorticity vector with the coupling of horizontal divergence perturbation and vertical gradient of general potential temperature perturbation. For a heavy-rainfall event resulting from the landfall typhoon ＇Wipha＇, the parameter is calculated by using National Centres for Enviromental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research global final analysis data. The results showed that the parameter corresponds to the observed 6 h accumulative rainband since it is capable of catching hold of the dynamic and thermodynamic disturbance in the lower troposphere over the observed rainband. Before the typhoon landed, the advection of the parameter by basic-state flow and the coupling of general potential temperature perturbation with curl of Coriolis force perturbation are the primary dynamic processes which are responsible for the local change of the parameter. After the typhoon landed, the disturbance is mainly driven by the combination of five primary dynamic processes. The advection of the parameter by basic-state flow was weakened after the typhoon landed.

Comparative Studies of Different Mesoscale Convection Parameterization Schemes in the Simulation of Mei-Yu Front Heavy Rain

The mei-yu front heavy rainstorms occurred over Nanjing on 3 5 and 8 9 July 2003 and were simulated in this paper using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRFv3.1) with various mesoscale convection parameterization schemes (MCPSs). The simulations show that the temporal and spatial evolution and distribution of rainstorms can be modeled; however, there was incongruity between the comparative simulations of four different MCPSs and the observed data. These disparities were exhibited in the simulations of both the 24-hour surface rainfall total and the hourly precipitation rate. Further analysis revealed that the discrepancies of vertical velocity and the convective vorticity vector (CVV) between the four simulations were attributed to the deviation of rainfall values. In addition, the simulations show that the mid-scale convection, particularly the mesoscale convection system (MCS) formation, can be well simulated with the proper mesoscale convection parameterization schemes and may be a crucial factor of the mei-yu front heavy rainstorm. These results suggest that, in an effort to enhance simulation and prediction of heavy rainfall and rainstorms, subsequent studies should focus on the development and improvement of MCPS.