ECONOMIC COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND PAN-PACIFIC COUNTRIES:IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA

The primary aim of this paper is to elucidae economic and spatial impacts of the Sino-Pan-Pacific economic relationships on China. Specffically, it explores the following questions: what is the historical Process of economic cooperation between the two economies? What is the Position of inter-trade between China and Pan-Pacific countries in China's total international trade? What is the position of Pan-pacific countrys' direct investment in China? And what is the potential subsequent meaning of favorable location choice of sevral major investment countries in China?

The structural characteristics of precipitation in Asian-Pacific's three monsoon regions measured by tropical rainfall measurement mission

The three-dimensional structure of precipitation on a seasonal scale in the Asian-Pacific＇s three monsoon regions is investigated based on the tropical rainfall measurement mission （TRMM） data. The results show that： （1） The maximum seasonal variation of the relative proportional difference of convective precipitation and stratiform rain occurs in the East Asian monsoon region, the second occurs in the Indian monsoon region, and the minimum is in the northwest Pacific monsoon region. In both the northwest Pacific mon soon region and the Indian monsoon region, the convective rain is proportionately larger than stratiform rain in all four seasons. （2） Cloud ice reaches its maximum at around 9 km. Cloud water＇s maximum range is between 3 and 4 km. The large value area of precipitation ice is mainly between 4 and 9 km. The precipi tation water particle is concentrated mostly below 4 km. The largest content is from the ground to 2 km. （3） The most remarkable variance of the content of cloud ice in the Indian monsoon region occurs from spring to winter, and the content of cloud water in the northwest Pacific is always higher than that in the other two regions. （4） The latent heat profile has a similar double-peak structure. The first peak is at 4 km and the second peak is at 2 km. In autumn and winter, the latent heat is higher in the northwest Pacific than in other two regions. In all three regions, the release of the latent heat is higher in summer and autumn than in spring and winter.

The Regional Conference of the IGU on Asian Pacific Countries Successfully Held in China

TheThe Regional Conference on Asian Pacific Countries of the IGU was held from August 13 to 19,1990 at Beijing,on the premises of Peking University.It was the first of such event of the Union to take place in China.The Conference was attended by 1017 geographers from 40 countries of six continents(Asia 788,Europe 125,North America 74,Oceania 15,Latin America 7,Africa 3),with the larger delegations from:U.S.A.(45),South Korea(44),Japan(31),France(18),Italy(17),FRG(16),Canada(16),U.S.S.R.(13),Australia(10),Spain(9),U.K.(8)and India(8).China composed the majority,and Taipei sent a sizable delegation of 15,the rest of the participating countries sent 1-4 delegates each.The organizing committee of the Conference included the executive committee members of the Geographical Society of China and members of China Committee for the IGU.Profs.Huang Bingwei and Wu Chuanjun were responsible for all the activities organized during the Conference.

A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP） is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 （CMIP5）. The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene （MP） and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIPS, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Nino- Southern Oscillation （ENSO）-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change oroiections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.

20 Years of the SCO:Development,Experience and Future Direction

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)has withstood storms to create a cooperative platform in Central Asia that conforms to the trend of the times,meets regional needs,and serves its member states’interests.SCO’s commitment to innovative thinking,security cooperation and regional coordination has contributed to regional stability and development and to gaining experience for establishing regional and global order.China-Russia cooperation,efforts by the“Shanghai Five,”relations among member states,and external pressure have been the main driving forces supporting a huge increase in trade in the past 20 years.For regional development and stability and a greater role in global governance,the SCO should continue taking the long-term perspective in planning and policy.

A Study of the Teleconnections in the Asian-Pacific Monsoon Region

The interactions among the Asian-Pacific monsoon subsystems have significant impacts on the climatic regimes in the monsoon region and even the whole world. Based on the domestic and foreign related research, an analysis is made of four different teleconnection modes found in the Asian-Pacific monsoon region, which reveal clearly the interactions among the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）, the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, and the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM）. The results show that： （1） In the period of the Asian monsoon onset, the date of ISM onset is two weeks earlier than the beginning of the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Basin, and a teleconnection mode is set up from the southwestern India via the Bay of Bengal （BOB） to the Yangtze River Basin and southern Japan, i.e., the ＂southern＂ teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon. （2） In the Asian monsoon culmination period, the precipitation of the Yangtze River Basin is influenced significantly by the WNPSM through their teleconnection relationship, and is negatively related to the WNPSM rainfall, that is, when the WNPSM is weaker than normal, the precipitation of the Yangtze River Basin is more than normal. （3） In contrast to the rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin, the precipitation of northern China （from the 4th pentad of July to the 3rd pentad of August） is positively related to the WNPSM. When the WNPSM is stronger than normal, the position of the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） becomes farther northeast than normal, the anomalous northeastward water vapor transport along the southwestern flank of WPSH is converged over northern China, providing adequate moisture for more rainfalls than normal there. （4） The summer rainfall in northern China has also a positive correlation with the ISM. During the peak period of ISM, a teleconnection pattern is formed from Northwest India via the Tibetan Plateau to northern China, i.e., the ＂northern＂ teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon. The above four kinds of teleconnections reflect the links among the Asian monsoon subsystems of ISM, EASM, and WNPSM during the northward advancing march of the Asian summer monsoons.

East Asian Regional Cooperation Network and China’s Path Choice

The current East Asian regional cooperation framework is a complex system with multiple fields,levels,and players.In terms of social network theory and analysis,the East Asian regional cooperation framework can be defined as an affiliation network of cooperative mechanisms and players.Combing through the process of East Asian regional cooperation and constructing an East Asian regional cooperation network on the basis of the affiliation network model shows that the network has distinct characteristics in terms of cooperation mechanisms,cooperation entities,inter-entity relations,and the interaction of various fields of cooperation.These characteristics are apparent in concentrated form in the dynamics and limitations of East Asian regional cooperation networks.Describing and analyzing the structure and characteristics of the regional cooperation network of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)can help us conduct a comprehensive examination of the current regional cooperation framework,grasp the developmental prospects of East Asian regional cooperation,and provide reference material for China's path choice in the process of future regional cooperation.

中国参与亚洲区域组织的实践:发展历程、经验教训与未来展望

中国参与亚洲区域组织实践的发展历程,可以分为参与学习期、主动有为期和积极影响期三个阶段。中国参与亚洲区域组织实践的成就主要体现在倡导成立了上海合作组织和亚洲基础设施投资银行、开创了区域治理的新模式、推动了区域合作格局的调整和促进区域合作,以及催生了新的国际机制等方面。中国参与亚洲区域组织实践的成功经验主要有:坚持开放的区域主义,坚持本国利益诉求与区域稳定发展相统一,谋求地区和平发展与参与全球治理有机结合。中国参与亚洲区域组织实践的教训主要包括:大国协调能力有待进一步加强、制度创设能力有限等。未来中国参与亚洲区域组织实践,应重点推动亚洲命运共同体的构建、进一步完善亚洲区域争端解决机制以及寻找多层次的亚洲区域治理方案等。

俄罗斯与东南亚国家合作的逻辑和实践

东南亚是俄罗斯“向东转”政策的目标区域之一,也是俄罗斯在亚太地区重建“另一个西方力量”的重要区域。俄罗斯给予东南亚国家军事技术和能源支持,重塑其在东南亚地区的大国形象,并通过建构集体身份和多极化国际体系逻辑,凸显其加强与东南亚国家合作的合理性和必要性。东南亚国家提升国际地位、扩大话语权的需求,以及在大国竞争中采取实用主义以获取更多利益的策略,则为俄罗斯成为东南亚地区的一支重要力量提供了条件。但身份同一性不足、地理位置相距较远、经济实力较弱、营商环境欠佳等多种不利因素使俄罗斯难以在短期内快速推进与东南亚国家的全面合作。

经济合作50年节点的日本对东盟峰会外交

日本对东盟外交具有政策的连续性与经济外交优先性的鲜明特点。日本与东盟设立“合成橡胶论坛”成为日本重视对东盟经济外交的标志性事件之一。2023年是论坛成立50周年纪念节点,日本邀请东盟各国领导人参加在东京举办的特别领导人会议,希望以此为契机推进与东盟各国在经济、安保合作、人员往来在内的广泛领域的双边合作。在世界格局和国际秩序深刻调整的背景下,日本高调纪念与东盟的“友好合作”,希望拉近与东盟关系以配合推进其“印太战略”,并为未来的双边关系提供方向指引。日本与东盟关系的走势对亚太地缘政治格局、东亚区域经济合作、中日关系乃至中国东盟关系都会产生不同程度的影响。

东北亚国家数字经济快速发展背景下中国数字经济发展的挑战和新路径

当前互联网、云计算、大数据、人工智能等新一代信息技术的创新和数字经济与传统产业的深度融合,使商业结构和行业理念发生了全面变化。全球传统产业加速向数字化、网络化、智能化转型升级,数字经济规模持续扩大。为应对全球数字化发展趋势,东北亚各国抓住数字经济快速发展带来的新机遇,聚焦数字经济发展,扩大合作不断向深度和广度延伸。本文从数字经济总体规模、数字基础设施建设、数字化政府建设转型、数字竞争力和ICT产业发展等五个方面详细梳理东北亚国家数字经济发展现状,分析域内各国数字经贸多领域合作中面临的挑战,在此基础上,探索东北亚国家数字经济快速发展背景下中国数字经济发展新路径,聚焦东北亚跨境数字服务贸易平台建设、中国东北—俄罗斯远东数字自贸区建设,释放高端智库论坛发展效能,抢抓数字时代东北亚区域经贸合作新机遇。

中国加快建设亚太天然气区域定价中心的思考与建议

天然气交易已进入定价中心时代,没有定价中心,就缺少定价话语权。为保障中国天然气产业的发展,应明晰定价中心的基本定义与功能,借鉴欧美定价中心的发展历程与经验,凭借中国在亚太市场的良好发展基础,加快建设亚太天然气区域定价中心的步伐。建议:1)天然气市场化改革亟待深化,应系统性向前推进;2)虚实结合建设天然气交易枢纽,加快形成基准枢纽;3)健全天然气产供储销体系,打造买卖双方充分竞争的市场基础;4)坚持“天然气人民币”策略,定价话语权与人民币国际化协同发展;5)充分利用中国的有利区位,深化天然气交易国际合作;6)加快建设期货交易体系,加快引入标准化合约和价格报告机构;7)加快形成统一的天然气能量计量计价体系,实现与国际接轨。

印度地区领导力建构及其国际公共产品供给逻辑

国际领导力源自合法性认同,大国通过供给国际公共产品能够促进自我利益与集体利益的平衡统一。在相互依存的全球治理格局中,领导性大国依托广泛的社会关系网络,可以在共同体内外夯实领导力的社会基础。印度作为传统的南亚地区大国,冷战后在国际舞台上日趋活跃,推进区域政治领导力的意愿与能力均显著增强。在长期睦邻外交实践中,印度将自己置于南亚政治网络的中心位置,通过发起区域互联互通倡议、强化基础设施援助与供给区域公共产品,强化区域领导力的合法性基础。但在大国地缘政治竞争背景下,印度主导的区域互联互通项目存在与中国“一带一路”倡议重叠竞争的压力。在南亚区域一体化合作方面,南盟区域组织发展受制于印度偏好而进程缓慢。长期以来,南亚区域合作中的印式领导力面临巴基斯坦的尖锐质疑,而且尼泊尔、不丹、斯里兰卡的战略追随也时常摇摆不定。为进一步夯实领导力的合法性基础,印度需要供给更高质量的区域公共产品以争取追随者的政治认同,同时消解因大国竞争与区域冲突所引发的不确定挑战。

浅论战后初期美国与英国亚太安全体制的分歧

20世纪初,美国实力增强、国际影响力提高,华盛顿决策者紧锣密鼓“恢复已经被日本扩张打破的远东地区的平衡”,这加快了美国从“大洋”走向“大陆”、再走向“大洋”的进程。英国在二战后霸权衰落以及自治领土要求脱离控制的状况与美国形成强烈反差。战后美国向亚洲太平洋地区进一步蔓延,使得该地区的既有“领主”英国发出反对的声音,拒绝美国一手“包办”亚洲太平洋地区的防御政策,不承认将英国排除在外的关于该地区的防御措施。值得注意的是,美英的竞争有两个特点:(一)共产主义政权的出现在美英霸权争夺中扮演着重要的角色;(二)美英矛盾与资本主义和共产主义之间的矛盾不同,表现为非根本性矛盾,美英之间具有共同的文化、价值观与族群基础,两者常常在妥协中实现合作,而并非发展到相互对抗的地步。

美国“印太战略”背景下的亚太区域合作变局与走向

美国印太区域战略的核心是对华围堵。美国通过区域“经济议题安全化”与“安全议题扩散化”策略,驱动区域国家增加对华“离心力”与对美“粘合力”,提高中国推进区域合作的成本。因而,美国“印太战略”布局下的亚太区域合作呈现出区域合作议题安全化、复合化和嵌套化,经济协作和安全泛化架构上的二元割裂愈加凸显,域内集体身份认知分散割裂加剧,区域合作议程从“软规范”转向“硬约束”等新特征。随着美国印太区域战略加速布局,东盟的区域中心地位将受到冲击,日本更可能成为美国亚太区域政策的“积极策应者”。中国须在反对区域割裂、夯实区域经贸联系、妥善应对小多边机制等方面有所作为。

Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Asian–Pacific Monsoon Region Simulated in CAMS-CSM

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO) is simulated by the Climate System Model(CSM) developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS), China Meteorological Administration. Firstly, the results indicate that this new model is able to reasonably simulate the annual cycle and seasonal mean of the precipitation, as well as the vertical shear of large-scale zonal wind in the tropics. The model also reproduces the eastward and northward propagating oscillation signals similar to those found in observations. The simulation of BSISO is generally in agreement with the observations in terms of variance center, periodicity, and propagation, with the exception that the magnitude of BSISO anomalous convections are underestimated during both its eastward propagation along the equator and its northward propagation over the Asian–Pacific summer monsoon region. Our preliminary evaluation of the simulated BSISO by CAMS-CSM suggests that this new model has the capability, to a certain extent, to capture the BSISO features, including its propagation zonally along the equator and meridionally over the Asian monsoon region.

冷战后日本对东南亚外交的脉络、逻辑与影响

冷战后日本对东南亚外交的演变脉络呈现明显的阶段性调整,包含政策领域与政策路径等。在此过程中,日本突出东南亚外交的政治色彩并全面发展与东盟国家的各领域双边关系,在持续深化经济外交的基础上取得了经济合作机制化建设进展,且正致力于推动与部分东盟国家的海洋安全合作及其机制化建设,进而试图主导地区秩序构建。日本对东南亚外交的政策逻辑主要体现在国家战略转型、地区框架建构与大国关系互动3个层面。其中,日本国家战略的目标诉求与实施路径,始终对其东南亚外交起到规范作用;日本对东南亚外交既是地区框架建构进程的有效组成部分,又受其规范与制约;日本始终需要考虑美国、中国等大国因素,且美国因素是约束日本外交取向的首要因素。冷战后日本对东南亚的外交深化了日本与东盟国家间双边关系,为日本自身的国家战略转型提供路径支撑,但在地区层面上则导致东亚合作框架泛化、东盟中心地位弱化以及地区安全局势不稳。

东亚安全秩序变迁与中国的地区战略选择

冷战结束后,东亚安全秩序经历了一个不断变迁的过程。从美国强化日美同盟,牢牢掌握地区安全主导权的霸权秩序;转变为美国联盟体系依然占主导地位,但同时允许东亚地区合作兼容发展的复合秩序;再到2017年以来美国联盟体系转型且不断冲击东亚地区安全合作,从而形成竞争秩序。中国是东亚安全秩序变迁的直接推动者,通过管理中美关系,推动国际权力和平转移,重建地区国家政治信任,以新经济关系促进新安全关系,以及和平解决争端,塑造地区安全的多边治理框架,中国逐渐从权力、关系和治理三个维度建构自身的地区角色和地区战略。为了防止竞争性安全秩序进一步向对抗和冲突方向演变,中国应以维护地区秩序稳定为首要目标,在保持自身战略可持续发展的基础上,推动新安全格局的构建,并聚焦全球安全倡议的重点合作领域,拓展地区公共产品供给的方式和路径,为推动东亚地区从竞争性秩序向包容性秩序的变迁而创造条件、积蓄能量。

什么因素主导了我国与亚太地区的贸易增长?——一种基于普适引力模型的贸易统计分解方法

本文利用基于普适引力模型得出的贸易增长4因素分解方程,识别了我国对太平洋沿岸18个国家1998—2019年间进出口增长的主要驱动因素及其动态变化。研究发现,我国经济增长是我国对亚太地区进出口的主要驱动因素,在进、出口方向的贡献均超过60%;贸易成本下降对区域贸易增长的贡献有待提升;我国对太平洋沿岸地区的贸易分解结构呈现出一定的区域内同质性。此外,多边阻力项在我国对亚太地区进口增长中起到阻碍作用,表明我国同期还从世界其他地区大量进口产品;而多边阻力项在我国出口增长中的影响相对较小。贸易壁垒对中美贸易的阻碍在2013年之后持续增强,尤其是在我国对美国的出口方向。本文在贸易效应识别和测算领域提供了新的统计分解模型,研究结论为我国未来区域合作提供政策参考。