CCUS-EOR项目经济系统评价方法及其应用

CCUS-EOR是碳捕集利用与封存体系中专用于强化采油或提高采收率的技术,是社会和企业实现“双碳”目标的重要技术途径。CCUS-EOR项目投资大、风险高,经济效益和社会效益显著,开展科学评价工作尤为重要。结合工作实践,梳理了CCUS-EOR项目经济评价的方法和流程,并对精细分析增量成本、多层次多角度评价项目效益、评价碳减排指标、评估社会效益以及全产业链经济效益评价等关键指标开展了深入的分析和总结,创造性地提出了一些指标和观点,探索形成了聚焦CCUS项目全产业链要素的CCUS-EOR项目经济系统评价方法体系。研究成果为此类项目科学决策提供了技术支持。

碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论:IV.收益统筹

面对巨大的气候变化损害以及高额的减排行动成本,如何在多时期、多主体框架下统筹经济发展与减排行动,协同推进发展与减排,成为全球气候治理中的关键议题。作为碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论系列论文的组成部分,构建了收益统筹理论。该理论在综合集成时间统筹、空间统筹、效率统筹相关理论与方法基础上,以最优经济增长为核心,将碳排放问题引入长期宏观经济分析中,深入探析经济发展与减排行动二者间的复杂关系,构建了经济-气候双向耦合的中国气候变化综合评估模型,并设计了多区跨期优化福利函数,实现发展与减排的统筹。基于碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论,应用中国气候变化综合评估模型C3IAM,明确了未来全球及各区域最优减排路径,并提出了各国及国家内部减排任务分配方案,科学回答了碳减排系统工程的减多少、何时减、谁来减、如何减、何效果等关键问题,为统筹发展与减排提供方法基础。

Cost-benefit analysis of screening for esophageal and gastric cardiac cancer

In 2005, a program named "Early Detection and Early Treatment of Esophageal and Cardiac Cancer" (EDETEC) was initiated in China. A total of 8279 residents aged 40-69 years old were recruited into the EDETEC program in Linzhou of Henan Province between 2005 and 2008. Howerer, the cost-benefit of the EDETEC program is not very clear yet. We conducted herein a cost-benefit analysis of screening for esophageal and cardiac cancer. The assessed costs of the EDETEC program included screening costs for each subject, as well as direct and indirect treatment costs for esophageal and cardiac severe dysplasia and cancer detected by screening. The assessed benefits of this program included the saved treatment costs, both direct and indirect, on esophageal and cardiac cancer, as well as the value of prolonged life due to screening, as determined by the human capital approach. The results showed the screening cost of finding esophageal and cardiac severe dysplasia or cancer ranged from $2707 to $4512, and the total cost on screening and treatment was $13 115-$14 920. The cost benefit was $58 944-$155 110 (the saved treatment cost, $17 730, plus the value of prolonged life, $41 214-$137 380). The ratio of benefit-to-cost (BCR) was 3.95-11.83. Our results suggest that EDETEC has a high benefit-to-cost ratio in China and could be instituted into high risk areas of China.

The Cost-Benefit Analysis for Bananas Diversity Production in China Foc. Zones

Over 50 years ago, banana export plantations in Panama were ruined by Fusarium wilt race 1 (Foc. R1) since the popular cultivar Gros Michel is susceptible to Foc. R1 [1]. Fortunately, the resistant cultivar Cavendish replaced Gros Michel as the world biggest commercial fruit after ten years’ research and development. Due to its good economic profit, banana industry develops very fast recently in China. Unfortunately, Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense tropical race 4 (TR4) brought disaster to Cavendish plantation since 1996. Most of traditional banana planting zones of Guangdong and Hainan provinces were infected by Foc. TR4 to the end of 2009. In order to fight against Foc. TR4, here we tried to investigate the cost-benefit and disease resistance of six banana cultivars (Cavendish Baxijiao, Dajiao, Guangfen No. 1, Fenzha No. 1, Gongjiao, Haigongjiao) planted in China Foc. Zones. Comparisons were conducted on their economic characteristics, cost, benefit, as well as the advantage and disadvantage and their application in rota-tion. Generally, supposing the investment of $ 4400/ha, the banana plantation attains a good economic profit as $ 2200/ha. Rotation of these cultivars can maintain the biodiversity as well as improve the sustainable development of banana industry.

阿贝西利、哌柏西利和瑞波西利一线治疗激素受体阳性晚期乳腺癌的成本-效用分析

目的从中国医疗卫生体系角度分析阿贝西利、哌柏西利和瑞波西利联用芳香化酶抑制剂(AI)一线治疗激素受体阳性(HR+)晚期乳腺癌的经济性。方法采用分区生存模型对HR+晚期乳腺癌患者20年的疾病进程进行模拟,模拟周期为4周,模型产出为总成本和质量调整生命年(QALY),以5%的贴现率对成本和效果进行贴现。通过系统检索相关临床试验进行网状Meta分析,获取阿贝西利、哌柏西利、瑞波西利联合AI的疗效参数,以MONALEESA-2试验安慰剂组的生存曲线为基础进行生存拟合和外推。计算3种治疗方案的增量成本-效果比(ICER)和增量净货币效益(INMB)以评估其经济性,意愿支付阈值为3倍我国2023年人均国内生产总值(GDP);采用单因素敏感性分析和概率敏感性分析检测各个参数对结果的影响以及增量分析结果的稳健性。结果经过20年的模拟,与哌柏西利+AI方案相比,瑞波西利+AI方案的ICER为58558.38元/QALY,INMB为62988.20元;与瑞波西利+AI方案相比,阿贝西利+AI方案的ICER为264928.34元/QALY,INMB为344.84元。单因素敏感性分析显示,阿贝西利+AI方案对比瑞波西利+AI方案的增量分析结果不稳健。概率敏感性分析证实,当阈值为1~3倍我国2023年人均GDP时,瑞波西利+AI方案成为最经济方案的概率最高。结论当阈值为1~3倍我国2023年人均GDP时,瑞波西利+AI方案一线治疗中国HR+晚期乳腺癌患者,较阿贝西利+AI方案和哌柏西利+AI方案更可能成为最经济的方案。

Cost-benefit analysis of screening for diabetic retinopathy among Chinese type 2 diabetes: decision from different perspectives of a population-based study

The purpose of this study is to explore whether it is worthwhile to launch a routine diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening for blindness pre-vention among Chinese type 2 diabetes from different perspective based on the popula-tion-based study in Kinmen, Taiwan. A total of 971 community dwelling adults previously di-agnosed with type 2 diabetes in 1991-1993 un-derwent DR screening in 1999-2002 by a panel of ophthalmologists using on-site indirect oph-thalmoscopy and 45-degree color fundus retinal photographs. The cost-benefit analysis is used to evaluate the DR screening. In terms of bene-fit-cost ratio, the different screening programs for DR could save New Taiwan Dollars (NTD) from 14.38 to 36.83 in discounted costs for each dollar incurred in different screening years from the societal viewpoint for Taiwan and save NTD from 0.81 to 1.80 in different screening years from health care payer’s perspective. The av-erage estimate of willingness-to-pay to translate into benefit yields NTD from 937.8 to 4,689 be- nefits per case due to DR screening in different screening years during 10-year follow-up. The net present value of the DR screening were NTD from -167,318 to -307,251.2 in different screening years. In conclusion, it is worthwhile to initial a routine DR screening of Chinese type 2 diabetes for blindness prevention from the societal per-spective but not from consumer decision based on the willingness-to-pay perspective.

Cost-benefit Analysis of Land Development Projects Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

Ecological and environmental issues have always been the focus of government work. The economic losses caused by air pollution,water pollution,noise pollution and solid waste pollution caused by land use development projects are estimated,and the total population economic losses are incorporated into project costing. Using the analytic hierarchy process,four benefit indicators and five cost indicators are selected for constructing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the cost-benefit of projects of different scales. The projects of different scales are ranked according to the level of comprehensive scores. The results show that large-scale projects are cost-effective and stable over the long term,and there are differences in the main sources of pollution-caused economic losses for projects of different scales. At last,reasonable policy suggestions are made to relevant planning and management personnel.

Trade Benefits and Environmental Costs of GVCS: A Case Study of the BRICS

As the international trading system has developed with the division of Global value Chains (GVCS), the export trade of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) has grown rapidly. The resulting growth of carbon emissions has drawn wide attention from the international community, necessitating the comparison of the trade benefits and environmental costs of the BRICS participation in GVCS. Based on the Eora database, this paper constructs a decomposition framework for the calculation of export value-added and embodied carbon, based on a multi-region input-output (MRIO) model. The trade benefits and environmental costs paid by the BRICS’ total exports from 1990 to 2015 were measured and the imbalance was analyzed, along with the causes. The results show that the main value-added and carbon embodied in the BRICS’ exports originate from their own countries, and the domestic value-added content of the BRICS’ exports decreased while the foreign value-added content increased.

基于P-E-R和成本收益模型的青岛市适度人口规模研究

基于P-E-R模型,选取反映经济发展和资源利用水平的各项指标,通过加权分析建立回归模型,对青岛市适度人口规模进行了研究,同时从成本收益角度分析构建了适度人口测度模型考察了青岛市的城镇化质量,以新型城镇化发展为焦点,为应对未来人口增长提供了资源配置方案及建议.结果表明:青岛市经济人口承载力优势显著,明显高于资源人口承载力;现阶段青岛市人口发展符合适度人口规模,人口增长存在一定空间,但人口增长速度低于全国水平;预计到2035年,青岛市人口约为1200万人.

Nature-based Natural-hazard Preparedness:A Cross Section of Categorized Examples

Despite prevailing interests,no rigorous research has been conducted to examine the role of nature in natural-hazard preparedness.This systematic review aimed to describe how nature can reduce the impacts of natural hazards during the preparedness stage.The study focuses on the land,water,and air systems and on three types of stakeholders:international organizations,developed countries,and developing countries.Further,it provides supplementary strategies,such as immediate actions,local engagement,and research and development,that the stakeholders should apply to enhance their nature-based natural-hazard preparedness.We suggest integrating costs and benefits analysis,local culture,societal challenges,and environmental justice into the implementation of nature-based solutions.Finally,this review outlines the framework of nature-based natural-hazard preparedness by discussing the relationship between nature and society.

基于价值工程的装配式建筑增量成本-效益模型研究

当前的工程实践表明,装配式建筑能大幅度减少现场施工人员数量、缩短工期,但装配式建筑中会产生增量成本,增量成本是影响装配式建筑大规模推广的重要原因。通过分析装配式建筑在施工过程中的增量成本组成要素,并指出利用装配式建筑会产生增量效益。提出一种基于价值工程的增量成本-效益模型(VCF),通过VCF模型可以真实地反映出在利用装配式建筑施工的过程中设计、施工、运营环节的增量成本和增量效益,通过具体案例对比增量成本与增量效益之间的差异,引导施工企业正确评估装配式建筑的成本及其潜在的效益,从而更好地促进装配式建筑行业发展。

Cost-Benefit Assessment of Inspection and Repair Planning for Ship Structures Considering Corrosion Model Uncertainty

Owing to high costs and unnecessary inspections necessitated by the traditional inspection planning for ship structures, the risk-based inspection and repair planning should be investigated for the most cost-effective inspection. This paper aims to propose a cost-benefit assessment model of risk-based inspection and repair planning for ship structures subjected to corrosion deterioration. Then, the benefit-cost ratio is taken to be an index for the selection of the optimal inspection and repair strategy. The planning problem is formulated as an optimization problem where the benefit-cost ratio for the expected lifetime is maximized with a constraint on the minimum acceptalbe reliability index. To account for the effect of corrosion model uncertainty on the cost-benefit assessment, two corrosion models, namgly, Paik＇ s model and Guedes Soares＇ model, are adopted for analysis. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method. Sensitivity studies are also providet. The results indicate that the proposed method of risk-based cost-benefit analysis can effectively integrate the economy with reliability of the inspection and repair planning. A balance can be achieved between the risk cost and total expected inspection and repair costs with the proposed method, which is very. effective in selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. It is pointed out that the corrosion model uncertainty and parametric uncertaintg have a significant impact on the cost-benefit assessment of inspection and repair planning.

An Integrated Socio-Economic and Ecological Framework for Evaluating the Societal Costs and Benefits of Fishing Activities in the Pearl River Delta

This paper puts forward a model of Pearl River Delta (PRD) fishery in the South China Sea (SCS) that integrates the ecological, social and economic costs and benefits of fisheries activities in a multidisciplinary framework. In particular, an integrated ECOST model is composed of links between an ecological model constructed by Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software and a region Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Then the costs and benefits of five fishing methods are compared from economic, ecological and social three dimensions base on the ECOST model. The potential effects of fishing effort reduction on fishing communication are explored by a series of dynamic simulations for a 10-year period. Key results from prediction (2005-2015) and policy simulations illustrate that fisheries of PRE are geared toward short-term economic profits at the expense of ecological gains and the whole group of societal benefits associated with fishing. However, the status quo can be improved to better levels by reducing fishing efforts.

A COST-BENEFIT EVALUATION OF NEONATAL SCREENING PROGRAM IN CHINA

Objective Phenylketonuria (PKU) and congenital hypothyroidism (CH) are common diseases thatare associated with mental retardation. In order to make the best use of health care resources to achieve themaximum social and economic benefits and to lay the foundation for the popularization of neonatal screening, acost- benefit analysis of neonatal screening program was undertaken. Methods Based on screening results,medical history and the data published by the national statistic departments. Results Our result shows that it islairly profitable to conduct neonatal screening in China: the cost - benejit ratio for PKU screenging is 1:3.7, andthe cost-benefit ratio for CH screening is 1:3.6. Conclusion This report therefore strongly suPPorts furtherpopularization of neonatal screening in China.

Study on Cost of Environmental Degradation Based on Cost-Benefit Analysis

With the rapid economic development of China,the environmental degradation brought by economic development cannot be ignored.In order to measure the cost of environmental degradation brought by land projects in the process of economic development and evaluate a land project,this paper establishes an ecological service evaluation model based on cost-benefit method to analyze the cost and benefit of land development projects from a new perspective,and explore effective strategies to alleviate environmental degradation.

Cost-benefit Analysis of Chestnut Production in Xingtai County

On the basis of market demand survey of chestnut,this article carries out cost-benefit analysis of the chestnut production in Xingtai County,to understand the profitability and payback period of local chestnut production.It points out that chestnut production has a high rate of return on investment,and chestnut can be promoted on a large scale in Xingtai County.However,there are still some problems in the production and marketing of chestnut in Xingtai County,such as low level of technology,extensive management,low level of organization,market imperfections and weak brand consciousness.Based on these problems,corresponding recommendations are put forth.

Model of Cost-benefit Flow in Six Green Projects in China

From the point of cost-benefit flow and with the Six Green Projects in China as the case and background, it is criticized that the current natural resource and environmental management and the policies in China have some problems unsolved since the model of cost-benefit flow is still centralized and mainly in an administrative way in spite of many efforts made theoretically and practically. It is suggested that a new model based on market-oriented economy from the point of cost-benefit flow with Six Green Projects Management and Policies System consist of complete natural reserve (NR). Management system included environmental nature reserves in addition to biodiversity nature reserve, paid using nature resources, an environmental conservation and construction industry and renewable resource production incentive system that turn the direct administration and operation to management and services. The detail figure of the new model of cost-benefit flow is provided and the main points related are discussed in this paper.

Cost-benefit Analysis of Scale Pig Breeding in Shandong Province Based on Modified Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Model

According to the relevant statistical data in National Agricultural cost-benefit Data Compilation(2001- 2013),we use the modified entropy weight- TOPSIS model to research the cost-benefit status of scale pig breeding in Shandong Province from the perspective of comparing it with that of the entire country and 9 other main pig producing areas. The results show that compared with the national average,the cost-benefit ratio of small scale pig breeding in Shandong Province is lower,while the cost-benefit ratio of medium scale and large scale pig breeding is significantly improved; the cost-benefit ratio of small scale pig breeding in Shandong Province is basically the same as that in 9 other main pig producing areas,while the cost-benefit ratio of medium scale and large scale pig breeding is higher; the output value of main products and the purchase price of piglet are two major bottlenecks restricting the cost-benefit improvement of scale pig breeding in Shandong Province.

Evaluating and Improving the Effectiveness of Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programs: A Cost-Benefit Analysis Framework

Motor vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs are designed to identify high-emitting vehicles and mitigate their impacts on air quality and climate. I/M programs have been traditionally ranked superior among various vehicle emission control measures by the results of cost-benefit analysis, based on the assumption that these programs will achieve the targeted emission reduction outcomes. However, the actual effects of I/M programs may be greatly uncertain and when this uncertainty is taken into account, these programs may become suboptimal. This study develops a new a cost-benefit analysis framework that links various program design consideration, such as program participation rate, identification rate and effective repair rate, to the public health benefits as well as costs of the programs. This framework helps decision makers to investigate minimum implementation requirements that at least ensure the benefits are greater than the costs of implementing the programs in order to improve the overall effectiveness of the I/M programs. To illustrate the applications of the framework, it was applied to a particulate matter oriented I/M program targeting all diesel-fueled vehicles in the city of Bangkok, Thailand, a large metropolitan area that has been suffering from severe ambient PM pollution mainly attributable to its wide use of diesel-fueled vehicles and motorcycles. It was found that the health benefits achieved from the program are sensitive to several key program design elements, including participation rate and problem vehicle identification rate, fraction of effective repairs and illegal operation rate. Other variables, such as the testing cut-points and vehicle population growth rate, only have modest effects on the overall emission reduction and consequent health benefits. Overall, the performance of multiple variables associated with I/M program design needs to be improved simultaneous in order to achieve the targeted benefits of the program.

Benefit-cost analysis of raising Pinus wallichiana seedlings in different capacities/sizes of root trainers in the nursery

Modern nursery methods of seedling production in different sized root trainers, were compared by raising seedlings of Pinus wallichiana involving costs incurred and benefits received. In order to provide a common basis for the comparisons, the study involved the raising of 1000 seedlings annually on a continuous basis for seven years. A relative economic analysis of raising P. wallichiana seedlings in 300, 150 and 100 cm^3 root trainers was carried out and we estimated that the root trainers of 300 cm^3 capacity recorded the highest total input cost of Rs. 35571 and Rs. 40018 for 1000 seedlings produced annually at discount rates of 12% and 6%. Seedlings raised in 100 cm^3 root trainers recorded the lowest total input cost of Rs. 23390 and Rs. 27737 per 1000 seedlings annually at discount rates of 12% and 6%. Hence, returns per rupee invested in raising seedlings in the 100 cm^3 root trainers accounted for the maximum benefit-cost ratio （i.e., 1.56 and 1.61） at discount rates of 12% and 6%. Thus seedlings raised in 100 cm^3 and 150 cm^3 root trainers were found to be most cost effective when compared with seedlings grown in 300 cm^3 root trainers. The results can be attributed to the larger number of cells per tray （higher growth density） in the 100 and 150 cm^3 root trainers, compared to the number of seedlings in the 300 cm^3 root trainers.