Cost Risk Appraisal： An Application of Project RiskManagement Process in Libyan Construction Projects

Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM （project risk management） process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.

Evaluation of Medical Costs of Kidney Diseases and Risk Factors in Japan

Background: Kidney (renal) diseases and dialysis are among the most costly disorders and represent a worldwide burden. In this study, we evaluate the medical costs for individuals with kidney diseases and risk factors for the diseases in Japan. Data and Methods: The dataset used contained 113,979 medical checkups and 3,172,066 medical cost records obtained from 48,022 individuals in one health insurance society. The sample period was April 2013 to March 2016. We evaluated the distribution of all medical costs, and those of kidney diseases specifically. Then the power transformation Tobit model was used to remove the effects of other variables. Finally, a probit analysis was used to analyze the risk factors. Results: In 0.25% of all cases, individuals were diagnosed with kidney diseases. An individual with kidney disease cost 14.5 times more than those without kidney disease. If the diseases progressed into chronic kidney disease (CKD), the medical costs increased substantially. Even disregarding various characteristics of individuals, this conclusion did not vary. We found important risk factors included diabetes and blood pressure problems. In particular, an individual with both factors had a high probability of developing kidney disease. Conclusion: Kidney diseases are much costlier than other diseases. Screening high-risk individuals, educating patients, and ensuring that treatment begins at an early stage are critically important to controlling medical costs. Limitations: The dataset was observatory, and the sample period was only 3 years.

Research on Cost Overrun Risk of Construction Phase of Vietnam Highway International Contracting Project

Recently, the highway construction projects increase rapidly in Vietnam and most of them are international contracting projects. It results serious negative influence on the local government and enterprises that the common cost overrun of projects, and the risk factors of it is different in the different countries, different stages and projects types. So in this paper, we generate an evaluation index system of highway construction projects cost overrun risk in Vietnam in the perspective of different project participants, and also evaluate the effects of these factors in method of regression analysis. The empirical results confirmed 7 main factors that have aggravated cost overrun risk in construction stages, e.g. survey and design scheme risk. In final, the corresponding suggestions are proposed to reduce the project cost overrun risk.

Investment risk of rural family education: From the persepective of educational cost and income

With the implementation of the policy of popularization of education, rural families make the choice of interests and behavior decisions through the calculation of their own benefits and costs, and gradually become the main body of rural education investment decisions. The relationship between educational cost and income plays a major role in the rural family education investment. Based on the current situation of rural education in our country, this paper focuses on the risk of rural education investment and rural education costs and benefits, and then puts forward scientific, operational measures and suggestions.

NPV risk simulation of an open pit gold mine project under the O'Hara cost model by using Gas

This paper analyzes an open pit gold mine project based on the O'Hara cost model. Hypothetical data is proposed based on different authors that have studied open pit gold projects, and variations are proposed according to the probability distributions associated to key variables affecting the NPV, like production level, ore grade, price of ore, and others, so as to see what if, in a gold open pit mine project of 3000 metric tons per day of ore. Two case scenarios were analyzed to simulate the NPV, one where there is low certainty data available, and the other where the information available is of high certainty. Results based on genetic algorithm metaheuristic simulations, which combine basically Montecarlo simulations provided by the Palisade Risk software, the O'Hara cost model, net smelter return and financial analysis tools offered by Excel are reported, in order to determine to which variables of the project is more sensitive the NPV.

Seismic Risk Assessment of Buildings in the Extended Urban Region of Athens and Comparison with the Repair Cost

A complete research of seismic risk assessment is presented herein focused on the existing build- ings of the extended urban region of Athens in Greece. The seismic risk assessment is fulfilled by discriminating the current study in two approaches, probable and actual, conducting afterwards between them a comparison analysis. In the first part, a pilot methodology is developed for the seismic loss assessment in monetary terms regarding the buildings damages, consistent with the National Programme for Earthquake Management of Existing Buildings (NPEMEB). The building stock consists of typical building types of Southern Europe and refers to 750,085 buildings (18.80% of buildings in Greece) situated in the entire region of Athens according to the results of the 2000-1 statistical census. A wider research of seismic risk assessment could include direct losses of infrastructures and indirect economic losses. The evaluation of loss due to building damage in a certain region requires an assessment of both seismic hazard and vulnerability of the building stock in the study area. Four different existing damage scenarios are applied for the vulnerability assessment. The results of the seismic risk assessment for the four different aspects of the es- timated damage and the different soil conditions are presented in a map of the study region. The existing vulnerability curves corresponding to defined types of buildings have been derived from the National Technical Chamber of Greece and also from recently developed DPMs. The last DPMs were obtained in a previous research (Eleftheriadou, 2009) from the process of a created damage database after the 7th of September 1999 Parnitha’s earthquake and comprised 180,945 buildings which developed damage of varying degree, type and extent. In the second part of the research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/ strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the same (1999 Parnitha’s) seismic event. Data regarding the compatible (budget approved according to the ministry’s provisions) repair cost has been collected. The structural losses in monetary terms for the 180,427 buildings damaged structures are evaluated equal to 2450.0 Μ€, 1887.8 Μ€ and 2118.9 Μ€ based on the previously mentioned statistical seismic risk data. The statistically derived repair cost for Attica is compared with the results of the economic loss esti- mation for buildings using the aforementioned risk assessment methodology. From the analysis results, the seismic scenario based on the recently developed DPMs (Eleftheriadou, 2009) pre- sented the better correlation (2627.77 M€) with the total statistically evaluated repair cost (2450.02 M€). It is important to stress that the inclusion of the coefficient parameter S overes- timates significantly the seismic losses. The last result should be taken into consideration in future risk researches. The comparison of the estimated economic loss with the statistical repair cost calibrates the reliability of the commonly used risk assessment method and serves in the im- provement of seismic security prioritizing the criteria for seismic rehabilitation programmes of existing buildings.

考虑潜在溃坝的水库大坝运行成本和收益量化方法

针对水库大坝逐渐老化、自身风险和运行成本不断增加的情况,为了进一步明确水库大坝运行的经济性,构建了一种考虑潜在溃坝损失作用下的水库大坝运行综合成本与综合收益量化模型。首先,综合考虑大坝潜在溃坝的影响,根据ISM理论明确了水库大坝运行成本与收益影响因素之间的相互作用关系,确定了水库大坝运行综合成本与综合收益量化指标;其次,基于DEMATEL法分析了各因素之间的相互作用程度,明确了各成本与收益指标之间相对重要程度;最后,结合技术经济学理论,计算了潜在溃坝损失作用下的水库大坝运行综合成本和综合收益。将所提模型应用于国内某水库,计算了该水库的运行综合成本和综合收益,并对其经济性进行了分析,结果表明:在考虑潜在溃坝损失的情况下,该水库运行综合成本为743.62万元,综合收益为10911.83万元,收益成本比为14.67,运行综合收益远大于运行综合成本,创收能力良好,经济效益显著。

地缘政治风险与中资企业债券融资成本——情绪传递与避险效应

中国作为全球系统重要性国家,外部环境变化必然冲击国内债券市场,投资者情绪起落传递金融风险.本文选取2007—2022年中国非金融上市公司发行债券数据验证地缘政治风险对企业融资成本的影响.研究发现,此类风险带来的冲击扩大企业债券信用利差,投资者乐观情绪与低违约避险效应缓解了冲击,国有企业债券违约强化负面信息传递,并且企业应对措施因其特性和货币金融环境不同而异,良好的经济基本面是应对地缘政治冲击最有效的平滑器.为增加企业财务韧性,建议宏观上应健全风险预警机制,完善资本市场体系,合理引导预期,同时要加强企业信息披露机制,建立信誉累积的长效机制.

Risk stratification for coronary artery disease in multi-ethnic populations:Are there broader considerations for cost efficiency?

Coronary artery disease(CAD) screening and diagnosis are core cardiac specialty services.From symptoms,autopsy correlations supported reductions in coronary blood flow and dynamic epicardial and microcirculatory coronaries artery disease as etiologies.While angina remains a clinical diagnosis,most cases require correlation with a diagnostic modality.At the onset of the evidence building process much research,now factored into guidelines were conducted among population and demographics that were homogenous and often prior to newer technologies being available.Today we see a more diverse multi-ethnic population whose characteristics and risks may not consistently match the populations from which guideline evidence is derived.While it would seem veryunlikely that for the majority,scientific arguments against guidelines would differ,however from a translational perspective,there will be populations who differ and importantly there are cost-efficacy questions,e.g.,the most suitable first-line tests or what parameters equate to an adequate test.This article reviews non-invasive diagnosis of CAD within the context of multi-ethnic patient populations.

The Application of Transaction Cost Theory in Supply Chain Management

In the context of globalization and digitalization, the application of transaction cost theory in supply chain management has become increasingly important. As business environments grow more complex, enterprises face challenges in effectively managing supply chain transaction costs. This paper systematically explores the application of transaction cost theory in supply chain management, covering key areas such as supplier selection, supply chain integration, and risk management. The research finds that supplier evaluation models based on transaction costs can help enterprises make more comprehensive selection decisions. In terms of supply chain integration, transaction cost theory provides important guidance for vertical integration decisions and the design of collaboration mechanisms. The application of digital technologies has both reduced traditional transaction costs and introduced new cost considerations. Faced with emerging risks such as cybersecurity and geopolitical issues, enterprises need to adopt dynamic transaction cost management strategies. In the future, the application of transaction cost theory in supply chain management will likely place greater emphasis on interdisciplinary integration and sustainable development, providing theoretical support for enterprises to achieve efficient, flexible, and sustainable supply chain management in the changing global business environment.

产业协同集聚如何赋能中小企业专精特新发展——基于中小板和创业板企业的实证分析

通过匹配2011-2020年城市层面产业协同集聚指数与深交所中小板、创业板企业数据,采用双固定效应模型,实证检验产业协同集聚对中小企业专精特新发展的影响及作用机制。结果显示,产业协同集聚可以显著推动中小企业专精特新发展,且这种影响在低供应商集中度企业、高数字化水平城市和高端生产性服务行业表现更显著。机制检验结果表明,产业协同集聚可以通过促进企业技术创新、降低企业交易成本和减小企业经营风险,推动中小企业专精特新发展。

供应链透明度与企业风险承担

利用2007—2020年我国A股上市企业数据,探究供应链透明度对企业风险承担水平的影响。研究表明:供应链透明度的提升有助于提高企业风险承担水平,特别是对市场地位较低、声誉较差、行业竞争程度较小以及市场化程度较低的企业提升效果更好。机制检验结果显示,供应链透明度通过缓解融资约束、降低代理成本来提高企业风险承担水平。拓展性分析发现,供应链透明度作用下企业风险承担水平提高,会有更多的债务融资、更高的资本支出水平以及更大的并购规模等,最终有利于增加企业价值。鉴于此,中国证监会应完善供应链信息的披露准则,企业应发挥供应链信息的融资和治理效应,投资者应关注企业供应链信息的价值发现功能。

大型土石方工程造价控制

通过对大型土石方工程造价的影响因素进行剖析和研究,分析了大型土石方工程造价控制过程中存在的主要风险点和难点,揭示其在造价控制中面临的困境,提出相应的控制对策,以便更好地应对土石方工程造价控制中的各种风险和挑战,为大型土石方工程的成本控制和风险管理提供可行性建议和实用指导,从而提高工程项目的运作效率和经济效益。

北非绿色能源发展与中国-北非绿色能源合作展望

北非地区绿色能源自然禀赋较为理想,北非各国均把绿色能源发展作为推动能源转型和实现经济多元化的重要举措,并制定了相应的绿色能源发展战略规划,为长期发展谋篇布局。北非国家虽然绿色能源开发潜力巨大,但尚未形成较为完整的发展体系,仍存在发展不均衡、不充分等问题。中国绿色能源高质量发展居于全球领先地位,成为北非拓展绿色能源合作的重要选择。中国在积极推动全球能源治理、气候治理过程中,在中非、中阿绿色发展合作的整体框架下,逐步加大与北非地区的绿色能源合作,在太阳能发电、风力发电、水力发电、绿氢等领域取得了一定成果。未来,中国与北非国家绿色能源合作应着眼于双方绿色能源发展优势与需求,积极拓展融资渠道,探索“绿色能源+”合作模式,促进北非地区本土就业,加强人才培养与交流,力争不断完善并深化中国与北非绿色能源合作。

社会失信环境与企业违约风险——来自城市失信被执行人的经验证据

基于2010—2022年沪深A股上市公司数据,探究了社会失信环境对企业违约风险的影响及其机制。研究表明,社会失信环境对企业违约风险产生显著的正向效应。机制检验发现,社会失信环境通过增加代理成本、加剧融资约束与提高经营风险三条路径来加大企业违约风险。异质性分析显示,社会失信环境对企业违约风险的正向影响在管理层激励较小、分析师关注度较低、数字金融发展水平较低及经济政策不确定性较高的情境下表现更为突出。研究从社会失信环境视角探讨了企业违约风险的影响因素,丰富了社会失信环境的微观经济后果,同时为政府部门进一步深化社会信用体系建设,防范与化解企业违约风险提供了经验证据。

The Strategies for Market Risk Management in International Shipping

International shipping market is a risky market associated with a variety of risks which shipping companies have to cope with. International shipping has been seriously hit by the financial crisis in 2008. Since then, this industry has experienced market downturn for a long period which was considered to be the longest period of depression in the history. This paper mainly focuses on the key market risks in international shipping including cyclical fluctuation risk, cost risk, freight rate volatility risk, and competition risk. It analyses the source of these market risks, and identifies some strategies to cope with these market risks. In the meantime, Maersk and China Ocean Shipping Group （COSCO）, the world leading international shipping companies, are taken as two cases. Their strategies in market risk management are analyzed, which enable the reader to learn from their success and failure. Based on the international experience in market risk management in shipping industry as well as the real practice of Maersk and COSCO, this paper provides useful guidance for shipping companies to reduce market risks, overcome market downturn, and improve competitiveness.

超声波燃料清洗在核电厂降低集体剂量中的应用

超声波燃料清洗可消除核电厂燃料组件的轴向功率偏移异常和降低集体剂量。本文主要阐述超声波燃料清洗的原理和在全球核电行业的应用情况;对于超声波燃料清洗在降低集体剂量中的应用,分别从实施核电厂的具体收益和行业代表性核电厂的大体收益进行分析,指出所涉及的燃料组件和工作人员的安全风险;如在国内核电厂实施超声波燃料清洗,初步测算了所需的经济代价,并对行业内集体剂量较高的机组提出了应用建议。

EPC类项目“窗口期”大宗钢材风险管控措施

随着建筑行业的快速发展,EPC项目管理模式正逐渐成为主流。此模式主要特点为包含建设项目的设计、采购及施工,其合同模式体现为固定总价。“窗口期”即项目处于设计阶段,该阶段通常是指项目中标后5个月左右的项目设计阶段。此时项目建设完成后的收款已确定,但建设成本却根据材料价格有浮动。以项目材料价格中波动大、使用量大的钢材作为切入点,通过分析对其不同的价格风险管理措施,对比出各自方案的优势及劣势,以此帮助相关企业更精细化的控制项目成本,以保证企业长久平稳经营。

高比例分布式光伏并网背景下配电系统电碳耦合规划方法

国家实施强化绿色证书与减碳政策,明确了电能供应与碳排放之间的联系,电碳耦合成为必然趋势。在欧盟实施碳关税政策背景下,我国的碳税可能会大幅增长,因此需要一种能够精确描述和评估碳税变化趋势的方法。为此,基于配电系统功率碳排放计算方法,将规划成本、碳税纳入规划总成本,以配电系统规划投资最小为目标函数,确立碳排放因子、潮流约束、节点电压约束、支路电流约束、投资约束等约束条件,构建了一种配电系统电碳耦合规划模型,旨在描述电能消耗与碳排放之间的关系。并基于条件风险价值(CVaR)理论优化电碳耦合规划模型,给出在极端损失场景下量化碳税波动的方法,以预测碳税的大幅变化。利用IEEE 24节点系统对该模型及碳税波动量化方法进行仿真验证,结果表明,该模型能够提供电碳耦合规划方案,并能有效评估碳税的极端变化。

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in Construction Schedule Risk Assessment

Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.