Purpose: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence and pattern of injuries resulting from auto-tricycle crashes among patients in a tertiary referral centre in Ghana. Methods: Data were retrospectively extr...Purpose: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence and pattern of injuries resulting from auto-tricycle crashes among patients in a tertiary referral centre in Ghana. Methods: Data were retrospectively extracted from hospital records of patients who got involved in auto-tricycle crashes and presented to the Accident and Emergency Centre of the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital (KATH), over a one-year period using a structured questionnaire. The gathered data were then entered into an electronic database and then analysed with SPSS version 20.0. Results: The incidence of injury following auto-tricycle crashes over the one-year period was 5.9% (95% CI: 4.9% - 7.0%) with a case fatality rate (FR) of 3.8% (95% CI: 1.3% - 8.7%). All the mortalities resulted from head and neck injuries and none of the patients involved wore a crash helmet. Only 5% of those studied wore crash helmets and were all drivers. Closed fractures accounted for 58% of the injuries, followed by open fractures, 28%. The most commonly fractured bones were the tibia/fibula, followed by the femur and then radius/ulna. The most common mechanism of injury was auto-tricycle toppling over (29%). Passengers were the most injured (48%), followed by drivers (37%) and pedestrians (15%). Most (72%) injuries among participants involved a single body part. On the injury severity scale, most (61%) of patients had minor trauma and 38% had major trauma. Conclusion: Auto-tricycle crashes account for 5.9% of injuries at the study site with a case fatality rate of 3.8%. Passengers had a higher injury rate (48%) than drivers (37%). Fractures of the tibia/fibula were most commonly associated with auto-tricycle crashes. Injuries to the head and neck were responsible for the deaths in the study participants and non-use of a crash helmet was associated with mortalities.展开更多
This paper examines the relationship between fatal road traffic accidents and potential predictors using multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLANN) models. The initial analysis employed twelve potential p...This paper examines the relationship between fatal road traffic accidents and potential predictors using multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLANN) models. The initial analysis employed twelve potential predictors, including traffic volume, prevailing weather conditions, roadway characteristics and features, drivers’ age and gender, and number of lanes. Based on the output of the model and the variables’ importance factors, seven significant variables are identified and used for further analysis to improve the performance of models. The model is optimized by systematically changing the parameters, including the number of hidden layers and the activation function of both the hidden and output layers. The performances of the MLANN models are evaluated using the percentage of the achieved accuracy, R-squared, and Sum of Square Error (SSE) functions.展开更多
Although there has been a slight decrease in road traffic crashes, fatalities, and injuries in recent years, HCMC (Ho Chi Minh City) will continue to encounter challenges in mitigating and preventing road crashes. Thi...Although there has been a slight decrease in road traffic crashes, fatalities, and injuries in recent years, HCMC (Ho Chi Minh City) will continue to encounter challenges in mitigating and preventing road crashes. This study analyzes road crash data from the past five years, obtained from the Road-Railway Police Bureau (PC08) and TSB (Traffic Safety Board) in HCMC. This analysis gives us valuable insights into road crash patterns, characteristics, and underlying causes. This comprehensive understanding serves as a scientific foundation for developing cohesive strategies and implementing targeted solutions to address road traffic safety issues more effectively in the future.展开更多
Traffic barriers are in widespread all around the USA as safety countermeasures for reducing the severity of run-off-road crashes. The effect of traffic barriers’ dimension had been ignored in past real-world crash s...Traffic barriers are in widespread all around the USA as safety countermeasures for reducing the severity of run-off-road crashes. The effect of traffic barriers’ dimension had been ignored in past real-world crash studies due to the considerable cost and time needed for collecting field data. This paper presented two new analytical models to investigate the effect of different variables on the severity of crashes involving traffic barriers, and end treatments. For this reason, a field survey was conducted on over 1.3 million linear feet of traffic barriers (approximately 4,176 miles road) in Wyoming to measure traffic barriers’ geometric features like height, length, offset, and slope rate. The collected data included 55% of all non-interstate roads of Wyoming. Based on results, the crashes involving box beam barriers were less severe than the crashes involved with W-beam or concrete barriers. The traffic barriers with a height between 28 and 31 in. were found safer than the traffic barriers shorter than 28 in., while there was no significant difference between the traffic barriers taller than 31 in. to those shorter than 28 in. in terms of crash severity. The end treatments located nearer to the traffic lane had lower crash severity.展开更多
This study reveals the inconsistencies between the negative externalities of carbon emissions and the recognition condition of accounting statements.Hence,the study identifies that heavily polluting enterprises in Chi...This study reveals the inconsistencies between the negative externalities of carbon emissions and the recognition condition of accounting statements.Hence,the study identifies that heavily polluting enterprises in China have severe off-balance sheet carbon reduction risks before implementing the carbon emission trading system(CETS).Through the staggered difference-in-difference(DID)model and the propen-sity score matching-DID model,the impact of CETS on reducing the risk of stock price crashes is examined using data from China’s A-share heavily polluting listed companies from 2007 to 2019.The results of this study are as follows:(1)CETS can significantly reduce the risk of stock price crashes for heavily polluting companies in the pilot areas.Specifically,CETS reduces the skewness(negative conditional skewness)and down-to-up volatility of the firm-specific weekly returns by 8.7%and 7.6%,respectively.(2)Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the impacts of CETS on the risk of stock price crashes are more significant for heavily polluting enterprises with the bear market condition,short-sighted management,and intensive air pollution.(3)Mechanism tests show that CETS can reduce analysts’coverage of heavy polluters,reducing the risk of stock price crashes.This study reveals the role of CETS from the stock price crash risk perspective and helps to clarify the relationship between climatic risk and corporate financial risk.展开更多
With the improvement of safety performance,car parts have different requirements for material strength and energy absorption performance.The conventional 1500-MPa hot stamping steel cannot well meet the requirements.C...With the improvement of safety performance,car parts have different requirements for material strength and energy absorption performance.The conventional 1500-MPa hot stamping steel cannot well meet the requirements.Considering the new generation 600-MPa hot stamping steel,this study investigates the applicable car parts and hot stamping process,then designs a new body-in-white(BIW)crash test for obtaining the crash performance of the new material.Through the actual part development and crash test,it is verified that the application of the new generation hot stamping steel can improve the crash performance of BIW.展开更多
Historical roadway safety analyses have used labor and time-intensive crash data collection procedures. However, crash reporting is often delayed and crash locations are reported with varying levels of spatial accurac...Historical roadway safety analyses have used labor and time-intensive crash data collection procedures. However, crash reporting is often delayed and crash locations are reported with varying levels of spatial accuracy and detail. Recent advances in connected vehicle (CV) data provide an opportunity for stakeholders to proactively identify areas of safety concerns in near-real time with high spatial precision. Public and private sector stakeholders including automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and insurance providers may independently define acceleration thresholds for reporting unsafe driver behavior. Although some OEMs have provided fixed threshold hard-braking event data for a number of years, this varies by OEM and there is no published literature on the best thresholds to use for identifying emerging safety issues. This research proposes a methodology to estimate deceleration events from raw CV trajectory data at varying thresholds that can be scaled to any CV. The estimated deceleration events and crash incident records around 629 interstate exits in Indiana were analyzed for a three-month period from March 1-May 31, 2023. Nearly 20 million estimated deceleration events and 4800 crash records were spatially joined to a 2-mile search radius around each exit ramp. Results showed that deceleration events between -0.5 g and -0.4 g had the highest correlation with an R<sup>2</sup> of 0.69. This study also identifies the top 20 interstate exit locations with highest deceleration events. The framework presented in this study enables agencies and transportation professionals to perform safety evaluations on raw trajectory data without the need to integrate external data sources.展开更多
This study investigates relationships between congestion and travel time performance metrics and crashes on road segments. The study focuses on work zone routes in Iowa, utilizing 2021 commercially-available probe veh...This study investigates relationships between congestion and travel time performance metrics and crashes on road segments. The study focuses on work zone routes in Iowa, utilizing 2021 commercially-available probe vehicle data and crash data. Travel time performance metrics were derived from the probe vehicle data, and crash counts were obtained from the crash data. Additional variables included road characteristics (traffic volume, road type, segment length) and a categorical variable for the presence of a work zone. A mixed effect linear regression model was employed to identify relationships between road segment crash counts and the selected performance metrics. This was accomplished for two sets of models that include congestion performance measures at different defining threshold values, along with travel time performance measures. The study results indicate that the congestion indicators, certain travel time performance measures, and traffic counts were statistically significant and positively correlated with crash counts. Indicator variables for rural interstate locations and non-active work zones have a stronger influence on crash count than those for municipal interstate locations and active work zones. These findings can inform decision-makers on work zone safety strategies and crash mitigation planning, especially in high traffic volume areas prone to congestion and queues.展开更多
Near crash events are often regarded as an excellent surrogate measure for traffic safety research because they include abrupt changes in vehicle kinematics that can lead to deadly accident scenarios. In this paper, w...Near crash events are often regarded as an excellent surrogate measure for traffic safety research because they include abrupt changes in vehicle kinematics that can lead to deadly accident scenarios. In this paper, we introduced machine learning and deep learning algorithms for predicting near crash events using LiDAR data at a signalized intersection. To predict a near crash occurrence, we used essential vehicle kinematic variables such as lateral and longitudinal velocity, yaw, tracking status of LiDAR, etc. A deep learning hybrid model Convolutional Gated Recurrent Neural Network (CNN + GRU) was introduced, and comparative performances were evaluated with multiple machine learning classification models such as Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Adaptive Boost, and deep learning models like Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). As vehicle kinematics changes occur after sudden brake, we considered average deceleration and kinematic energy drop as thresholds to identify near crashes after vehicle braking time . We looked at the next 3 seconds of this braking time as our prediction horizon. All models work best in the next 1-second prediction horizon to braking time. The results also reveal that our hybrid model gathers the greatest near crash information while working flawlessly. In comparison to existing models for near crash prediction, our hybrid Convolutional Gated Recurrent Neural Network model has 100% recall, 100% precision, and 100% F1-score: accurately capturing all near crashes. This prediction performance outperforms previous baseline models in forecasting near crash events and provides opportunities for improving traffic safety via Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS).展开更多
This article is a compilation of teen driver crash contributing factors typically extractable from the crash data collection system in the United States.Tremendous research effort has been undertaken over the decades ...This article is a compilation of teen driver crash contributing factors typically extractable from the crash data collection system in the United States.Tremendous research effort has been undertaken over the decades to comprehend teen driver crash risks,as teen drivers continue to be over-involved in crashes even when accounting for the driving exposure.This article presents the contexts of crash factors related to operating conditions,roadway,vehicle,and driver and their unique influences on teen driver crashes in terms of estimated risk,prevalence,and estimated likelihood mainly from descriptive and analytical studies.The key variables are selected based on the number of studies that considered each risk factor for analysis.The understanding of crash factors could be translated into graduated driver licensing and other teen driver safety programs.While the discussions were grounded in crash studies carried out in the United States,the insights gleaned from these studies hold the potential to offer valuable guidance to other countries.For example,the insights and discussions can serve as a catalyst for the development and improvement of driver education programs tailored to address the specific requirements and difficulties confronted by their teenage drivers.展开更多
An important issue in analyzing accident blackspots is the estimation of severity levels of different types of accidents.This study aims to estimate the severity level of accidents in Bahrain using crash costs.These c...An important issue in analyzing accident blackspots is the estimation of severity levels of different types of accidents.This study aims to estimate the severity level of accidents in Bahrain using crash costs.These crash costs were calculated by the Human Capital Approach(HCA)and total reported costs from the victims.The data was collected from the General Directorate of Traffic,insurance companies,Ministry of Works(MoW)and Ministry of Health.It was found,from the survey responses,that there was no significant effect of victim characteristics on the total cost of the accidents.The severity levels were found to be higher than those found in previous literature or adopted by local authorities which could be attributed to the economic conditions of Bahrain.Moreover,the weights found by both approaches were different from each other.Therefore,it is recommended to use the HCA approach due to its comprehensive calculations involving future costs.展开更多
In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial (CAR-NB) model is employed to allow for overdispersion (tackl...In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial (CAR-NB) model is employed to allow for overdispersion (tackled by the NB component), unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation (captured by the CAR process), using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the Gibbs sampler. Statistical tests suggest that the CAR-NB model is preferred over the CAR-Poisson, NB, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated NB models, due to its lower prediction errors and more robust parameter inference. The study results show that crash frequency and fatalities are positively associated with the number of lanes, curve length, annual average daily traffic (AADT) per lane, as well as rainfall. Speed limit and the distances to the nearest hospitals have negative associations with segment-based crash counts but positive associations with fatality counts, presumably as a result of worsened collision impacts at higher speed and time loss during transporting crash victims.展开更多
In order to improve the prediction precision of the safety performance function (SPF) of freeway basic segments, design and crash data of 640 segments are collected from different institutions. Three negative binomi...In order to improve the prediction precision of the safety performance function (SPF) of freeway basic segments, design and crash data of 640 segments are collected from different institutions. Three negative binomial (NB) regression models and three generalized negative binomial (GNB) regression models are built to prove that the interactive influence of explanatory variables plays an important role in fitting goodness. The effective use of the GNB model in analyzing the interactive influence of explanatory variables and predicting freeway basic segments is demonstrated. Among six models, the two models (one is the NB model and the other is the GNB model. ) which consider the interactive influence of the annual average daily traffic (AADT) and length are more reasonable for predicting results. Furthermore, a comprehensive study is carried out to prove that when considering the interactive influence, the NB and GNB models have almost the same fitting performance in estimating the crashes, among which the GNB model is slightly better for prediction performance.展开更多
文摘Purpose: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence and pattern of injuries resulting from auto-tricycle crashes among patients in a tertiary referral centre in Ghana. Methods: Data were retrospectively extracted from hospital records of patients who got involved in auto-tricycle crashes and presented to the Accident and Emergency Centre of the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital (KATH), over a one-year period using a structured questionnaire. The gathered data were then entered into an electronic database and then analysed with SPSS version 20.0. Results: The incidence of injury following auto-tricycle crashes over the one-year period was 5.9% (95% CI: 4.9% - 7.0%) with a case fatality rate (FR) of 3.8% (95% CI: 1.3% - 8.7%). All the mortalities resulted from head and neck injuries and none of the patients involved wore a crash helmet. Only 5% of those studied wore crash helmets and were all drivers. Closed fractures accounted for 58% of the injuries, followed by open fractures, 28%. The most commonly fractured bones were the tibia/fibula, followed by the femur and then radius/ulna. The most common mechanism of injury was auto-tricycle toppling over (29%). Passengers were the most injured (48%), followed by drivers (37%) and pedestrians (15%). Most (72%) injuries among participants involved a single body part. On the injury severity scale, most (61%) of patients had minor trauma and 38% had major trauma. Conclusion: Auto-tricycle crashes account for 5.9% of injuries at the study site with a case fatality rate of 3.8%. Passengers had a higher injury rate (48%) than drivers (37%). Fractures of the tibia/fibula were most commonly associated with auto-tricycle crashes. Injuries to the head and neck were responsible for the deaths in the study participants and non-use of a crash helmet was associated with mortalities.
文摘This paper examines the relationship between fatal road traffic accidents and potential predictors using multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLANN) models. The initial analysis employed twelve potential predictors, including traffic volume, prevailing weather conditions, roadway characteristics and features, drivers’ age and gender, and number of lanes. Based on the output of the model and the variables’ importance factors, seven significant variables are identified and used for further analysis to improve the performance of models. The model is optimized by systematically changing the parameters, including the number of hidden layers and the activation function of both the hidden and output layers. The performances of the MLANN models are evaluated using the percentage of the achieved accuracy, R-squared, and Sum of Square Error (SSE) functions.
文摘Although there has been a slight decrease in road traffic crashes, fatalities, and injuries in recent years, HCMC (Ho Chi Minh City) will continue to encounter challenges in mitigating and preventing road crashes. This study analyzes road crash data from the past five years, obtained from the Road-Railway Police Bureau (PC08) and TSB (Traffic Safety Board) in HCMC. This analysis gives us valuable insights into road crash patterns, characteristics, and underlying causes. This comprehensive understanding serves as a scientific foundation for developing cohesive strategies and implementing targeted solutions to address road traffic safety issues more effectively in the future.
基金part of project#RS03218 funded by the Wyoming Department of Transportation(WYDOT)
文摘Traffic barriers are in widespread all around the USA as safety countermeasures for reducing the severity of run-off-road crashes. The effect of traffic barriers’ dimension had been ignored in past real-world crash studies due to the considerable cost and time needed for collecting field data. This paper presented two new analytical models to investigate the effect of different variables on the severity of crashes involving traffic barriers, and end treatments. For this reason, a field survey was conducted on over 1.3 million linear feet of traffic barriers (approximately 4,176 miles road) in Wyoming to measure traffic barriers’ geometric features like height, length, offset, and slope rate. The collected data included 55% of all non-interstate roads of Wyoming. Based on results, the crashes involving box beam barriers were less severe than the crashes involved with W-beam or concrete barriers. The traffic barriers with a height between 28 and 31 in. were found safer than the traffic barriers shorter than 28 in., while there was no significant difference between the traffic barriers taller than 31 in. to those shorter than 28 in. in terms of crash severity. The end treatments located nearer to the traffic lane had lower crash severity.
基金supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(under Grants No.72073105,71903002,and 71774122)the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province,China(under Grant No.1908085QG309)are greatly acknowledged.
文摘This study reveals the inconsistencies between the negative externalities of carbon emissions and the recognition condition of accounting statements.Hence,the study identifies that heavily polluting enterprises in China have severe off-balance sheet carbon reduction risks before implementing the carbon emission trading system(CETS).Through the staggered difference-in-difference(DID)model and the propen-sity score matching-DID model,the impact of CETS on reducing the risk of stock price crashes is examined using data from China’s A-share heavily polluting listed companies from 2007 to 2019.The results of this study are as follows:(1)CETS can significantly reduce the risk of stock price crashes for heavily polluting companies in the pilot areas.Specifically,CETS reduces the skewness(negative conditional skewness)and down-to-up volatility of the firm-specific weekly returns by 8.7%and 7.6%,respectively.(2)Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the impacts of CETS on the risk of stock price crashes are more significant for heavily polluting enterprises with the bear market condition,short-sighted management,and intensive air pollution.(3)Mechanism tests show that CETS can reduce analysts’coverage of heavy polluters,reducing the risk of stock price crashes.This study reveals the role of CETS from the stock price crash risk perspective and helps to clarify the relationship between climatic risk and corporate financial risk.
文摘With the improvement of safety performance,car parts have different requirements for material strength and energy absorption performance.The conventional 1500-MPa hot stamping steel cannot well meet the requirements.Considering the new generation 600-MPa hot stamping steel,this study investigates the applicable car parts and hot stamping process,then designs a new body-in-white(BIW)crash test for obtaining the crash performance of the new material.Through the actual part development and crash test,it is verified that the application of the new generation hot stamping steel can improve the crash performance of BIW.
文摘Historical roadway safety analyses have used labor and time-intensive crash data collection procedures. However, crash reporting is often delayed and crash locations are reported with varying levels of spatial accuracy and detail. Recent advances in connected vehicle (CV) data provide an opportunity for stakeholders to proactively identify areas of safety concerns in near-real time with high spatial precision. Public and private sector stakeholders including automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and insurance providers may independently define acceleration thresholds for reporting unsafe driver behavior. Although some OEMs have provided fixed threshold hard-braking event data for a number of years, this varies by OEM and there is no published literature on the best thresholds to use for identifying emerging safety issues. This research proposes a methodology to estimate deceleration events from raw CV trajectory data at varying thresholds that can be scaled to any CV. The estimated deceleration events and crash incident records around 629 interstate exits in Indiana were analyzed for a three-month period from March 1-May 31, 2023. Nearly 20 million estimated deceleration events and 4800 crash records were spatially joined to a 2-mile search radius around each exit ramp. Results showed that deceleration events between -0.5 g and -0.4 g had the highest correlation with an R<sup>2</sup> of 0.69. This study also identifies the top 20 interstate exit locations with highest deceleration events. The framework presented in this study enables agencies and transportation professionals to perform safety evaluations on raw trajectory data without the need to integrate external data sources.
文摘This study investigates relationships between congestion and travel time performance metrics and crashes on road segments. The study focuses on work zone routes in Iowa, utilizing 2021 commercially-available probe vehicle data and crash data. Travel time performance metrics were derived from the probe vehicle data, and crash counts were obtained from the crash data. Additional variables included road characteristics (traffic volume, road type, segment length) and a categorical variable for the presence of a work zone. A mixed effect linear regression model was employed to identify relationships between road segment crash counts and the selected performance metrics. This was accomplished for two sets of models that include congestion performance measures at different defining threshold values, along with travel time performance measures. The study results indicate that the congestion indicators, certain travel time performance measures, and traffic counts were statistically significant and positively correlated with crash counts. Indicator variables for rural interstate locations and non-active work zones have a stronger influence on crash count than those for municipal interstate locations and active work zones. These findings can inform decision-makers on work zone safety strategies and crash mitigation planning, especially in high traffic volume areas prone to congestion and queues.
文摘Near crash events are often regarded as an excellent surrogate measure for traffic safety research because they include abrupt changes in vehicle kinematics that can lead to deadly accident scenarios. In this paper, we introduced machine learning and deep learning algorithms for predicting near crash events using LiDAR data at a signalized intersection. To predict a near crash occurrence, we used essential vehicle kinematic variables such as lateral and longitudinal velocity, yaw, tracking status of LiDAR, etc. A deep learning hybrid model Convolutional Gated Recurrent Neural Network (CNN + GRU) was introduced, and comparative performances were evaluated with multiple machine learning classification models such as Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Adaptive Boost, and deep learning models like Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). As vehicle kinematics changes occur after sudden brake, we considered average deceleration and kinematic energy drop as thresholds to identify near crashes after vehicle braking time . We looked at the next 3 seconds of this braking time as our prediction horizon. All models work best in the next 1-second prediction horizon to braking time. The results also reveal that our hybrid model gathers the greatest near crash information while working flawlessly. In comparison to existing models for near crash prediction, our hybrid Convolutional Gated Recurrent Neural Network model has 100% recall, 100% precision, and 100% F1-score: accurately capturing all near crashes. This prediction performance outperforms previous baseline models in forecasting near crash events and provides opportunities for improving traffic safety via Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS).
文摘This article is a compilation of teen driver crash contributing factors typically extractable from the crash data collection system in the United States.Tremendous research effort has been undertaken over the decades to comprehend teen driver crash risks,as teen drivers continue to be over-involved in crashes even when accounting for the driving exposure.This article presents the contexts of crash factors related to operating conditions,roadway,vehicle,and driver and their unique influences on teen driver crashes in terms of estimated risk,prevalence,and estimated likelihood mainly from descriptive and analytical studies.The key variables are selected based on the number of studies that considered each risk factor for analysis.The understanding of crash factors could be translated into graduated driver licensing and other teen driver safety programs.While the discussions were grounded in crash studies carried out in the United States,the insights gleaned from these studies hold the potential to offer valuable guidance to other countries.For example,the insights and discussions can serve as a catalyst for the development and improvement of driver education programs tailored to address the specific requirements and difficulties confronted by their teenage drivers.
文摘An important issue in analyzing accident blackspots is the estimation of severity levels of different types of accidents.This study aims to estimate the severity level of accidents in Bahrain using crash costs.These crash costs were calculated by the Human Capital Approach(HCA)and total reported costs from the victims.The data was collected from the General Directorate of Traffic,insurance companies,Ministry of Works(MoW)and Ministry of Health.It was found,from the survey responses,that there was no significant effect of victim characteristics on the total cost of the accidents.The severity levels were found to be higher than those found in previous literature or adopted by local authorities which could be attributed to the economic conditions of Bahrain.Moreover,the weights found by both approaches were different from each other.Therefore,it is recommended to use the HCA approach due to its comprehensive calculations involving future costs.
基金The National Science Foundation by Changjiang Scholarship of Ministry of Education of China(No.BCS-0527508)the Joint Research Fund for Overseas Natural Science of China(No.51250110075)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.SBK200910046)the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.0901005C)
文摘In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial (CAR-NB) model is employed to allow for overdispersion (tackled by the NB component), unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation (captured by the CAR process), using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the Gibbs sampler. Statistical tests suggest that the CAR-NB model is preferred over the CAR-Poisson, NB, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated NB models, due to its lower prediction errors and more robust parameter inference. The study results show that crash frequency and fatalities are positively associated with the number of lanes, curve length, annual average daily traffic (AADT) per lane, as well as rainfall. Speed limit and the distances to the nearest hospitals have negative associations with segment-based crash counts but positive associations with fatality counts, presumably as a result of worsened collision impacts at higher speed and time loss during transporting crash victims.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51408229,51278202)the Program of the Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University(No.K201204)the Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Communication Department(No.2013-02-068)
文摘In order to improve the prediction precision of the safety performance function (SPF) of freeway basic segments, design and crash data of 640 segments are collected from different institutions. Three negative binomial (NB) regression models and three generalized negative binomial (GNB) regression models are built to prove that the interactive influence of explanatory variables plays an important role in fitting goodness. The effective use of the GNB model in analyzing the interactive influence of explanatory variables and predicting freeway basic segments is demonstrated. Among six models, the two models (one is the NB model and the other is the GNB model. ) which consider the interactive influence of the annual average daily traffic (AADT) and length are more reasonable for predicting results. Furthermore, a comprehensive study is carried out to prove that when considering the interactive influence, the NB and GNB models have almost the same fitting performance in estimating the crashes, among which the GNB model is slightly better for prediction performance.